Thursday, January 16, 2020

January 17th: LPL (China)

LPL Spring 2020
Week 1 Day 4 Recap

Moneyline: Suning -170 (3.4 units)
Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +148 (1 unit)
Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ -120 (1.2 units)
Net: -3.4 units

Sometimes you get burned trying to attack lines earlier in a season but as you could tell from my pseudo-tirade on Twitter, there was some absolutely abysmal play on the Rift this morning particularly in the Rogue Warriors vs Suning series. I'll spare you all the repeat but the fact of the matter is that there is just a stunning lack of macro fundamentals in the LPL with the exception of a few teams. It's what always gives me pause about calling the LPL the "strongest region." Long story short, Suning absolutely sucked and it wasn't just an off day. I suspected the coaching staff was a big part of the problem last year and that's proving true again so far.


LPL Spring 2020
Week 1 Day 5

FunPlus Phoenix -1900 (-1.5 @ -233)
eStar Gaming +1060 (+1.5 @ +222)

It's so unfortunate that FunPlus is the next team that eStar gets to face because I want to fade their first win so badly. They 2-0'd a terrible Rogue Warriors team in one of the worst series of professional League of Legends I've ever seen in their first match. It's nothing to do with beginners luck or anything like that and more to do with the fact that both teams looked horrible in that series and I love fading new team excitement. FunPlus showed last year that they aren't a team that punts games to terrible teams very often unlike previous iterations of Invictus for example who routinely played three game series (almost all of their series were three games). They're going to utterly stomp the new comers especially because FunPlus just lost their opening match. It's a pretty rich price to pay but I saw absolutely nothing positive in the eStar win over Rogue Warriors it was just two awful teams and one of them happened to win.

Spread: FunPlus -1.5 maps @ -233 (2.33 units)


TOP eSports -310 (-1.5 @ +116)
LNG eSports +255 (+1.5 @ -120)

This is an interesting spot. LNG looked good at times during their match against LGD but it was also a match against LGD, one of the worst teams in the league, so it's tough to tell if there was actually anything relevant to take from the series. LNG were able to defeat Aphelios but also lost to it in game one when they left it up.

There have been some changes but the last time these two teams stud bot laner Loken had very little to do with the win for TOP going 1-0-10 in the series while Knight went absolutely berserk against Plex. Maple, despite his problems last season on Suning, is probably a slight upgrade over Plex and Xx is probably a slight upgrade over SofM as well but TOP have also gained the services of Karsa, one of the best to ever play the position.

On paper this matchup is probably closer than you'd think. Both teams' strengths are their top trio of the solo lanes and junglers which are exceptional. Against certain teams I'd have questions about new bot laner Photic for TOP but the LNG bottom lane isn't the one to punish the rookie compared to some others in the league. LNG have upgraded their top trio but TOP still possess one of the premier trios on the planet. TOP also have an edge by being one of the few good macro teams in the LPL. It was some time ago but let's not forget that TOP were probably the second best team in China going into Worlds last year before an upset loss to Invictus in the regional gauntlet to get knocked out of the tournament. This team is already excellent and, if you assume he's still himself, made an upgrade in the jungle to Karsa.

I'm siding with TOP here but I'm keeping it to one unit because of of LNG's upgrades to their top trio and potential early season rust to shake off for TOP. I think TOP's biggest unknown is their bottom lane and that likely won't be punished here but it's still an unknown. I like to think that a team that moved on from Loken knows what they're doing with rookie Photic but we'll see.

Spread: TOP eSports -1.5 maps @ +116 (1 unit)




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