Betting: September 16th (Regional Finals in LCK, LPL, EU and NA LCS, Summer Finals TCL)

EDward Gaming vs. Rogue Warriors

EDG look surprisingly good against JD yesterday but I think JD punted a couple of the drafts pretty badly and while EDG deserves credit for these wins I don't want to jump to any kind of strong conclusions about how good or bad they are based on the series. In a similar sense I don't want to overrate Rogue Warriors performance in the third-place match against JD because, and I profusely apologized for this, there was nothing to play for for either team and that game. I think for looking at these two teams in a vacuum Rogue Warriors is the better squad and has been more or less all year. EDG had a good on paper roster and haven't quite been able to put together yet and while I wouldn't rule out that they do so here I'm going to stick with Rogue Warriors for a couple units. This is a team that I've more or less assumed would go to worlds all year even through a competitive Chinese region and while this wreaks a little bit of "ride or die" I will need a couple units for that. Records of been more versatile and shown the ability to come back and games while EDG is more or less only one from head and even then have and always one. There series against JD was very very snowbally and none of the games are particularly close so it's tough to get a read on how consistent they are and I think Rogue Warriors present a number of draft challenges because of DoinB. Rogue Warriors and JD are similar teams but not in the drafts and I think that can be enough of an advantage for Rogue Warriors on top of being the overall better team and having more film from watching EDG play through this gauntlet.

(pending my books posting it but RW ML 2 units if its under -200)

UPDATE: Rogue Warriors +119 (3 units)

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Gen.G vs Kingzone

I know everybody wants to get hype on gauntlet Gen.G being a different beast but an elite world-class team Kingzone with a lot of veteran experience, time off, and 10 games of gauntlet footage on Gen.G I can't help but think they'll have a great game plan for the series. Kingzone have all of The Art of War style advantages here like scouting an element of surprise potential. Kingzone could play this any number of ways I trust that the have the correct game plan for. I'm going to do is I've been doing for most of these gauntlet runs in every region and fade the Cinderella team. Scouting and seeing what the team wants to do against you is extremely powerful especially when both teams are evenly matched and on the elite world-class level. These are two of the best teams in the world and unless there is a drastic mismatch either stylistically or individually at some point on the rift which I think there isn't in this case you have to give the advantage to the team with more information on the element of surprise. I also happen to think the Kingzone is little bit better not by much but a little bit better. I'm not too worried about how Gen.G won the regular season series four games to one. I'll be going four units on Kingzone -161.

Moneyline: Kingzone -161 (4 units)

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G2 vs Schalke 04

I was a little soft on Splyce going in this regional gauntlet I think I'm willing to admit I was wrong on that. They were the one team I didn't give enough credit for having preparation time being able to change their game plan. I'll give them props now. This this Schalke G2 series is a lot tougher to get a read on because both teams have a history of not showing up for certain games whether that's through punted drafts or just looking out of it. I think G2 got a huge advantage by breaking out the Heimerdinger and now that that trick has been shown and you look back on these drafts they really only one the game that they got Akali in. I don't underrate Splyce winning the other games but G2 won game to with Akali and game five because they didn't and Heimerdinger against the team that's played it better than anybody on the planet. I think this is a huge oversight by Splyce and they, in some ways, handed G2 the series after being competitive and it. I'll be honest, betting Schalke 04 scares me but they looked great in the playoffs and now that they've seen this G2 Heimerdinger I don't think they'll be surprised by it and can prepare drafts accordingly. This is yet another fade of the previous match winner. I think people tend overrate what they just seen and get excited while also being afraid of the unknown, that being the team that they haven't seen in the gauntlet. Think this combination of factors is a really really powerful spot for us as bettors because the public is almost always going to overrate the team that just played going into the series. I like Schalke 04 for 2 to 3 units.


Moneyline: Schalke 04 -164 (3 units)

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TSM vs Cloud 9

TSM utterly smashed Echo Fox something I deftly didn't see coming even if I thought they probably win that series. I do want to take just a second and point out just how hard Dardoch carries that Echo Fox team. It seems like games where he can't get his lanes ahead they'd simply lose. Huni made a boatload of mistakes in this series and while I don't want to put all the blame on him it shows just how much Dardoch actually helps him and the rest of the team. Everything runs through him.

TSM were particularly proactive in this series they, just let Echo Fox beat themselves but they did such a good job team fighting and absorbing out lashes by Echo Fox that they looked almost like an SK Telecom team from a couple years ago. They were extremely disciplined, clean, and in control of themselves. While I think C9 is a bit more disciplined and well-rounded than Echo Fox is I do think they share some similarities and that they get wild sometimes especially with Goldenglue and Svenskeren in the game. This is the TSM I expected to see all season long and there peeking at just the right time. This is one of the exceptions I'm actually going to make my trend of fading known quantity because I think TSM showed me enough of what I expected them to be going into this entire calendar year and I think it's a good matchup for them against a C9 roster that's trying to get ahead of itself sometimes. I think C9 are significant we better than Echo Fox so I don't think this will be a 3-0 blowout but I do think TSM take the series. Unlike most of the other teams heading into the finals of the Regional against the top seed, I don't think they showed anything in particular in the draft that would make teams behave differently. They more or less marched up the same thing they did during playoffs and just played much better. Because of this I don't think there's any real advantage to be gained in the draft other than C9 potentially using the element of surprise. I do think that is a powerful thing but I think people are just a little bit too high on C9 because of their Summer split success. This looks like a 3 to 2 TSM when to me but I wouldn't fault anybody for going in either direction. I'll be taking the TSM money line for 3 to 4 units.

Moneyline: Team Solo Mid -116 (3 units)-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


SuperMassive vs Royal Bandits

Disclaimer: I haven't watched a lot of TCL, really only SuperMassive and Royal Bandits games.

They haven't looked quite the same as they did last split where they dropped like two games all season and Royal Bandits look quite improved but I'm not going to look this ridiculous line in the mouth and not play it. SuperMassive utterly destroyed this region and they were messing around in a lot of the games last split and while they've struggled a tiny bit more this season you can legitimately attribute a lot of it to messing around/boredom. With their World spot on the line I think SuperMassive win this game and it's quite frankly a bit shocking to me that they're such big underdogs. 

Moneyline: SuperMassive +155 (2 units)

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