Thursday, September 13, 2018

Betting: September 14th (LPL Summer Finals, LCK Regional Gauntlet Round 2, EU and NA LCS Gauntlet Round 1)

Invictus Gaming vs Royal Never Give Up

My heart desperately wants to play Invictus here. They're the KT Rolster of China; always the bridesmade, never the bride. This team has been absolutely unbelievable both this year and last year and have just not been able to get it done. This will be their first finals. Royal Never Give Up, however, are on a complete warpath. With the exception of a game where they subbed in Able, they've completely annihilated everybody including a 15 minute win... in the playoffs (albeit against the weakest playoff team).

Minimum action on this game because my hearts little bit too involved and I've been absolutely terrible in the LPL the split but I'm gonna put two units on the Invictus Gaming money line. This match is everything to Invictus Gaming. I'm ignoring the narrative that RNG "don't need to win this match"because I think this team is competitive and a number one seed matters a whole lot in the World Championship so were not going to pay attention to the narrative. I've been preaching all year that I think Invictus is the best team in China. Unfortunately for me RNG have looked particularly menacing in the past couple of weeks and have legitimately shifted that a little bit. I do however think that Invictus are on the same level and they can keep the series competitive. Call this an emotional bet if you want and I'd caution against tailing me but I think Invictus can win the series and I'm gonna put two units on the money line for them to do so. Logically this looks like a 3-2 or 3-1 win for RNG but I just have a feeling about Invictus here.

As a side note I think China is on a similar tear to Korea this year going the World Championship. This is something I'm going discuss more as we get around to that time. But I think in years past China has one, maybe two elite teams that can compete with the top Korean teams I think this year they have for unfortunately one of those teams will be going to Worlds. I think Korea also has four teams five if you want to debate the merits of Afreeca. This World Championship is shaping up to be an absolute doozy that I think any number of teams could win. I think both Invictus and R and G have reasonable chances to win the World Championship this year



Moneyline: Invictus Gaming +110 (2 units)

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Gen.G eSports vs Griffin

SKT vs Gen.G was an outstanding series. Both teams played very high level League of Legends, a refreshing change of pace from SKT who struggled a lot this season. Ultimately Gen.G won out but I don't want to underrate just how good SKT looked throughout this series. They ended up losing because Blank made a few fatal errors in game five but this was a close series that could have gone either way.

Perhaps the most important takeaway for us looking forward with SKT done for the year is that Gen.G actually utilized a lot of uptempo strategies, something they've been particularly stubborn on doing in years past. They were aggressive, proactive on the map, and played the drafts that were given to them. This is important to understand because it could allow them to jump out to potential early leads on Griffin. Ambition and Haru both looked EXCELLENT this series, something that'll be very important for him to do against Tarzan.

While these two teams split the regular season meeting one match each, Gen.G 2-0'd the second time around and took a game the first time for a 3-2 game score and I think this Gen.G looks much better than the one that won those games. I'm not saying I definitely think Gen.G are going to win this series but I think it's a reasonable possibility. I think the psychological aspect actually plays a role here. It'll be interesting to see how Griffin respond to a devastating loss in an instant classic of a Grand Final against KT Rolster. They looked defeated but they've had some time to recover and prepare this week and they've been resilient through losses all season long. I do, however, think that if Gen.G jump out to a lead it's entirely possible Griffin lose some confidence. I don't think it's likely but it's possible.

I'm going to put a three units on the Griffin moneyline. I know that's not a lot of action on this game but I actually think Gen.G could keep this close. I think the most likely outcome is somewhere in the 3-1.5 situation. What I mean by that is that I think Gen.G will take a game or two in a Griffin win. I think the second most likely outcome is a Griffin 3-0, and the third most likely a Gen.G upset in 3-1 or 3-2 fashion. Griffin are the better team and took KT Rolster to a thrilling five game series in their first time on stage so perhaps I'm underrating that and playing this too safe but Gen.G looked good AND SKT looked good so I don't want to underrate them going into this either.


Moneyline: Griffin -208 (3 units)

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Splyce vs Misfits

Man EU gauntlet looks incredible! All these teams have had highs and lows throughout the season and all of them are competitive. I think this is perhaps the easiest master call of the potential match ups going to be going  2 units on Misfits. I don't want to disrespect the fact that Splyce showed a new element against Schalke 04 while also keeping that series competitive but Schalke looked kind of bad relative to the way they played the rest of playoffs. Misfits on the other hand completely smashed G2 and I see a similar thing happening here. I think Misfits are not only a clutch team but they're more well-rounded than Splyce is and I could see this game going one of two ways most likely. One, Misfits utterly smash every early gaming smashed these games or two, Splyce drafts and plan to play early and simply can't execute as well as Misfits can early in the game anyway.

I expect this to be a 3 to 0 or 3 to 1 victory for Misfits but as we discussed a number of times these gauntlet games can be closer than they originally appear so I'll be sticking to just the money line on this match.

Moneyline: Misfits -185   (2-3 units)


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Clutch Gaming vs Echo Fox

We discussed this a number of times but it's so so dangerous to assume that these teams will be the same as they were all season long in these gauntlet matches. Sometimes that is the case most of the time it isn't. Clutch gaming heaven played a match since August 19, which, coincidentally enough was a loss to Echo Fox. Similar to the SK Telecom situation going into their match against Gen.G the other day this teams had a lot of down time to prepare for this match and they have film on Echo Fox from playoff matches Echo Fox played. Clutch finish the summer split on a bit of a down note but this team is competitive well coached and it shown a propensity to have excellent preparation.

Echo Fox -400 is an absolutely absurd Moneyline for this game! Do I think Echo Fox is the better team? Absolutely. Are they consistent? Not particularly. With this much preparation time is well seen playoff game film from Echo Fox I think Clutch Gaming could not only keep the series close potentially win it. I think this line is completely out of whack and should be closer to the -190 to like -220 range for Echo Fox or perhaps even lower than that. I'll be putting at least a couple units on Clutch Gaming at +287. I also absolutely love the Clutch +1.5+153 and will likely be putting a substantial wager on that tomorrow at some point depending on line movement. Clutch are not as well-rounded as Echo Fox but with preparation time teams that are not as well-rounded can prepare strategies to stay competitive. We saw this with both Gen.G and SK Telecom yesterday. Teams with a lot of preparation time that historically were not up-tempo style teams based on the seasons data that both showed a variety of strategies including ones that we didn't pin them to be good at. I think that we're  in a similar situation here with Clutch Gaming I think this is a good opportunity.

Moneyline: Clutch Gaming  +287 (2-3 units)

Handicapped: Clutch Gaming +1.5 @ +153 (TBD, likely 2-4 units)



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