Betting: September 10th (LPL Semifinals)

Again I ask you to bear with me here as I'm injured, so I'll be saving some typing and shortcutting when I can you can look up the schedules and lines on your own but here are my thoughts and picks for tomorrow's matches.

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JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming:

Unfortunately I don't have too many thoughts on tomorrow's match between Invictus and JD. The regular-season series belongs to Invictus four games to one the most recent of which was a 2 to 0 defeat that included a top lane substitution from Invictus. I don't necessarily like the Invictus -2.5 here because I think JD Gaming can take a game and have looked good enough recently that I won't rely on a 3 to 0 defeat. However there's reason to believe either side. You could argue that JD Gaming's game losses to FunPlus and Edward Gaming or a sign that they're not quite as good but you could also argue that the fact that they've taken a game off of Invictus is reason enough to believe that this won't be a 3 to 0 defeat.

I for one am mostly staying away from this match because I don't feel strongly enough about any of the directions it could go. On paper this looks like an obvious 3-0 or 3-1 for Invictus but JD have looked strong in the playoffs and we haven't seen Invictus for awhile. Those of you to follow me know that I believe Invictus to be the strongest team in the LPL despite the fact that they haven't won at an international tournament yet but I think JD Gaming have joined the elite in China which makes me feel that anything could happen in the series.

I'll be doing light half unit wagers on the JD +2.5 @-147 as part of some multisport parlays but other than that I'll be avoiding the series. If you're looking at this from a value perspective there are two opinions you could have if you believe the Invictus 3-0, the -2.5 is actually excellent value +112 but if you think this is going to be a close series anyway that you're JD gaming is going to look a lot better. I actually think JD gaming could win the series enough so that I might convince myself by game time to put 1/2 unit or unit on the money line which is currently +363. I do think these are two elite teams that aren't as mismatched as the line suggests so that's a spot to bet for value but I don't feel strongly enough the JD would win to absolutely slam this just based on money line value so I'll be keeping it light or avoiding it altogether.

No action.