Friday, December 27, 2019

December 27th and 28th: KeSPA and Demacia Cups

- odds to win listed unit amount and + odds unit placed amount 


Demacia Cup


Friday 10pm Eastern EDward Gaming vs Vici Gaming



This should be an interesting matchup as both teams went to the full five games in their previous series. Personally I thought Vici had a more impressive performance taking down one of my personal favorites for the tournament in TOP and I felt looked pretty damn good in doing so. Aix struggled in a couple games against Karsa but looked solid in the others and Cube and iBoy were absolute monsters throughout the series. EDG pulled the reverse sweep on WE who become fixated on mid Nocturne, a pick that I think is fine but requires certain circumstances. They were unable to snowball in games three and four and then had a pair of the dumbest punts I've seen so far this entire preseason and would have been in the running for worst throws for all of last year in game five. I hate to say the fix was in but it sure looked fishy to me... Anyway... Kkoma has arrived and in an interview iBoy was discussing the aura of confidence, competitiveness, and seriousness which sounds an awful lot to me like a winning culture, something Vici hasn't had in years, maybe ever. This team performed well without him there and will look even better with him there to help make adjustments during the series, something Kkoma might be better at than any coach in the history of competitive League of Legends.

I'm going with Vici here. Not only do I like the coaching edge, and have much more repsect for their win over TOP than I do EDG's over WE but Vici are also playing extremely well individually and the addition of iBoy seems to have been a slam dunk. Cube is also going to demand a Mordekaiser game plan or ban in this game which should give Vici a ton of leverage in the draft. I also think we're in a situation with a false favorite. I'd cap this at Vici -120 / EDG +100 or even money. It's not as extreme as some of the examples we've been seeing in this tournament but there is still some price memory from last season happening here. Vici are "a bad organization" in most people's eyes and EDG are one of the most storied franchises in Chinese League history. It's the eSports equivalent of the Cowboys vs the Bills or big market vs small market etc. Vici are the better team here and we're getting them as dogs.

That said we're not breaking the bank entirely because these teams are fairly close. This is also one of the rare spots where I actually like the +1.5 maps in a five game series, a play I usually avoid but this feels like it could go the distance to five games.


Moneyline: Vici Gaming +135 (2 units)(Nitrogen)

Spread: Vici +1.5 maps @ -150 (2.5 units)(5Dimes)

Spread: Vici -1.5 maps @ +271 (0.5 units)(Nitrogen)




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Royal Never Give Up vs JD Gaming


I'm a bit annoyed Rogue Warriors couldn't even take a game from RNG to cover our RW exposure yesterday but onward we ride. I still don't know what to make of this RNG squad. They looked excellent in the match we just saw but RW also looked terrible and appeared to be floundering from the get go. Holder got absolutely destroyed by Langx and Crazy didn't fair much better. Ruby had his first poor set of games this tournament. RNG just looked really good and took care of business. XLB looked particularly impressive for a newcomer. I'm just skeptical about how much weight to put on this win. RNG had looked a bit suspect in the group stage and while there is a chance that it just took some time for the players to get used to playing together and have "arrived" now, I'm willing to bet against that.

JDG were my pick to win the tournament and after seeing their first games and just how much of an upgrade Loken has been combined with the continuity of roster from the year prior I just think they're playing with an advantage over just about everyone in this tournament. The only question mark I had for them was how fast they could incorporate Loken and they've passed that with flying colors. I still think JDG take this tournament down.

Interestingly we already got to see this matchup in group stage. JDG won a fairly close, slug fest of a game. If you look at the tale of the tape these teams are fairly similar but I think JDG just have slightly stronger horses in the race. I think JDG win this series but this line is way too heavy handed. I was really hoping we'd get the take advantage of the perception and some of last years results baked in like we've been getting all tournament but we don't here. Perhaps this will close under -200 closer to game time but at -234 that's a bit too much for me to pay. I'll be waiting on this one to see how the line moves closer to game time. Nothing for now but leaning RNG for the value, JDG if it gets to somewhere around -180 or so. If the line shrinks I don't hate the OVER 3.5 maps either but for the time being I'm abstaining from this one.


No wager: Leaning RNG ML, waiting until closer to game


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KeSPA Cup

Brion Blade vs Afreeca Freecs


Short preseason tournaments are always strange beasts because we've seen underdogs take them down before. Brion Blade and APK Prince got to play a slugfest, back and forth series akin to the ones they'd played in Challenger Korea over the last year which was fun to watch. Wizer, Hena, and Minit turned in stellar performances. I like the confidence and some of the niche picks like Aatrox that Brion Blade have available to them.

Afreeca got to play against Rockhead, a collection of misfit toys from the LCK and CK scene over the past years with some respectible names like Ian and Pilot. Normally you could be critical that it took a top four LCK team this long to take care of a roster like that but I'm going to look at this through a different lens. Afreeca changed coaches to ArtScene from NoFe and added both Fly and Mystic. We talked a lot about this on the podcast but we all liked the concept of Mystic in the LCK, a slower paced region where he could be more likely to get to late game where he has delivered as one of the best scaling carry players in the last few years. The challenging part to identify was that Afreeca were perhaps the most uptempo team in Korea last year and whether or not the new staff would retain that or not. Then they added Fly, a roaming and pace oriented mid laner. Now that we've seen some of what Afreeca look like and the chapmions they prioritized I think we can expect a slower pace of play to compliment their tremendous late game carry in Mystic as well as potential 1-3-1 strategies with Fly and Kiin.

This is a tough spot. The value is most certainly with Brion Blade who you can get at +543 (Nitrogen) and +155 on the +1.5 map spread. I tend to like underdogs in these preseason tournaments as we've discussed. The thing is I can't see Brion Blade actually taking this down. They're simply outclassed. If you consider their strongest player Wizer like I do and you have to match him up again one of the best in the world at the position in Kiin I simply don't like their odds. Hena has shown the ability to carry but this iteration of Brion Blade feels a lot like Wizer commanding attention is their primary win condition. Is it their only? Absolutely not but I have a hard time taking even crazy odds like +543 when their best player is going to have his hands full and everyone else is outclassed. I'll probably include the -1.5 for Afreeca in parlays if I do any but I'm going to just stay away from this one straight up. If you can stomach taking the dog that's understandable but I won't be.

No wager: Slight lean to Brion Blade +1.5 maps @ +155


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Hanwha Life vs KT Rolster

It's tough to get a read on this series. Both teams just finished utterly smashing their "free square" representatives from essentially the league equivalent to the Single A baseball. I think both of these rosters are full of criminally underrated players like Aiming, Tusin, Kuro, SoHwan, Lava, and Tempt. These are two teams I want to like and do like. It was kind of cool seeing Lava playing ADC which appears to be the move and one that might be great for the time being with the bottom lane champion pool in the position it is. Lava is an excellent player that I have always felt has been underrated and it's good to see him even in his new role carrying games. Having Lehends at support certainly helps for sure.

The thing with this series is that I could break down all the reasons I like both teams and dislike both teams but at the end of the day I think they're both probably going to be somewhere in the middle of the pack or maybe toward the bottom of the LCK because they lack the firepower some of these other teams have.



The books apparently have about as much uncertainty as everyone else.

Bet365 has this at Hanwha -175, -1.5 @ +162, KT +125 +1.5 @ -225
5Dimes has this at Hanwha -155, -1.5 @ +170, KT +135, KT +1.5 @ -215
Nitrogen has it at Hanwha -234, -1.5 @ +147, KT +160, KT +1.5 @ -207

This is all over the place....

I think these teams are effectively 50/50. We have very little to go on other than my evalution of the players because I don't want to give any weight to what we've seen so far because the opponents were not professional grade. In a vaccuum I think both of these teams have roughly equal players but if you asked most people they'd probably lean toward Hanwha having better players. I have a lot of respect for Kuro. I also have some questions about Lava playing against a legitimately strong and experienced bottom lane in Aiming and Tusin. This line should be way WAY closer to even money. The books' uncertainty on this is somewhat understandable but they should have just made this closer to 50/50. Give me the underdogs here.


Moneyline: KT Rolster +160 (2 units)(Nitrogen)

Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +345 (0.25 units)


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Parlays:

I'll take a small shot at a double dog here.

Parlay (2): Vici ML + KT Rolster ML @ +480 (0.25 units)

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