Wednesday, December 25, 2019

December 25: Demacia Cup / KeSPA Cup


Demacia Cup: Wednesday 10pm EST start


Vici Gaming vs TOP eSports



I have absolutely no idea why TOP are so heavily favored in this spot. This is another example of people looking at last seasons results or a generalized elo rating system and applying it blindly. This isn't the same TOP team OR the same Vici team. As a matter of fact both teams went 3-1 in their group stage this weekend. Is TOP going to be the better team this season? Almost definitely. Karsa is one of the best to ever play the position but is only a small upgrade to Xx who was excellent last season. They also lost stud ADC Loken to JDG. Vici are running a strictly upgraded roster with additions Forge from Invictus' system and iBoy. Kkoma isn't there in a coaching capacity yet but Vici looked a lot better and I simply can't see why, at this specific tournament this line is this far out of whack. I'd have TOP slightly favored, maybe in the ballpark of -150 at the most. Not -654 or whatever juiced nonsense Nitrogren has up. This is MUCH MUCH closer to 50/50 than the line indicates.



Vici Gaming ML @ +345 (0.5u)

Vici +1.5 maps @ +160 (1u)

Vici +2.5 maps @ -207 (3u)

(all of these are at Nitrogen, haven't seen it open at any other available books to me yet)




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Team WE vs EDward Gaming






Similar to my play on Vici that's happening in about an hour and a half (scroll up a bit). This is simply too much of a line disparity for this point in the season. Both teams had the same exact record of 3-1 during the group stage and both teams faced similar schedules in terms of difficulty. In fact I'd say WE had a slightly tougher set of opponents but that's my opinion. They also performed better from a metrics perspective in economy, efficiency, althought EDG had the edge in vision statistics.

Once again, just like the Vici/TOP series happening at 10pm EST I just think this line should be closer to 50/50 but it's using price memory from last season. Even though there are some of the same players, for the most part these teams have had enough changes that they're both effectively new teams and both have looked great in the four games we've seen from them so far. Is EDG the better team? Probably but not by much, at least at this point in the season. No reason for WE to be this big of a dog.

Team WE Moneyline @ +385 (1 unit) (5Dimes)


Team WE +1.5 maps @ +100 (1 unit) (Nitrogen)

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JD Gaming vs BiliBili Gaming



This one isn't the same as these previous two. JDG went 4-0 in the group stage and in convincing fashion against what I'd call the hardest group in this tournament (even the development league representative Young Miracles is quite good for their level). This team, while infuriating last year, fixed their main problem which was their liability at the ADC position in Imp. Not only did they replace the problem, but upgraded to one of the best ADC's in the world in Loken. JDG are going to be really good this year. BiliBili were the "better than the rest" but not quite as good as the elite teams in the LPL team last year. The Gatekeepers if you will. Their coaching and disciplined playstyle along with stellar solo lane performances from Kuro and ADD helped secure them back to back solid season. They bring in star LMS mid laner FoFo who, while formidable, might not be the automatic upgrade from Kuro that it seems public perception has declared. FoFo is excellent but Kuro has been criminally underrated in his career.

To me this is simpler than that. JDG look like they're already in midseason form. They're utterly smashing people and their new addition Loken has been a huge reason why. When the new piece is performing at the level you expect immediately it's fairly safe to say that chemistry is good so far and that the awkward getting to know each other phase might be shorter than in most situations. JDG are going to be a title contender this year especially in Spring while a lot of these other rosters figure themselves out. BiliBili are one of those rosters that are figuring themselves out. They've already played 8 different players in this tournament and while they've looked decent, mostly appear to be in evaluation mode to figure out what the best iteration of their roster might be to start the season.

I think JDG smash this series and this is another case of getting price memory from last year cooked into the line in our favor. JDG were a bad and extremely lucky team last year that had a lot of people sipping the proverbial Kool Aid from their miracle run in the Spring playoffs but they already appear to have fixed a large amount of their problems and have made a drastic upgrade at their weakest position. This is a slam dunk to me.


Moneyline: JDG -120 (5 units)


Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ +172 (1 unit)

Spread: JDG -2.5 maps @ +444 (0.5 units)


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Rogue Warriors vs Royal Never Give Up

RNG have actually stuck to the same five every game, something I didn't expect, while Rogue Warriors have tried two different lineups. After losing to BiliBili with Wuming being outclassed by FoFo (and Qiyana to some extent) Rogue Warriors switched to Korean mid laner Ruby (formerly of VSG in the Challengers Korea) and have since enjoyed three dominant performances and a 40 KDA. Small sample size but still rather impressive for the new comer to the region. Since that switch up, the lineup with Haro and Ruby appears to be extremely effective for Rogue Warriors. RNG took care of business against LNG and Young Miracles but lost to both JDG and OMG who, as we knew going into this tournament, are two of the stronger teams.

To me this is yet another case of two teams being severely exaggerated based on previous performance not current ones. RNG represented China at the World Championships just a couple months ago and have a strong name brand value to a lot of people. Rogue Warriors were one of the worst teams in the league last year. I think we're getting a ton of price memory in our favor yet again here. These two teams are pretty even to me, maybe a slight edge to RNG just because of experience from players like Xiaohu, Ming, and Langx playing together for so long. I'd personally cap this somewhere between -125 and -150 (~55%-60% implied odds). Again, these preseason tournaments are not always indicative of things to come but they're also not indicative of the past either. I had RNG pegged as a team that would struggle to redefine themselves going into the season without their two best players in Karsa and Uzi, two Hall of Famers. They'll be fine but I digress. This line is juiced way way too much in RNG's favor so we're going with the underdog yet again. This weighting will allow us to profit on a 3-2 loss, which I think is the most likely outcome in this scenario while also covering about half of our RW liability if we get more than 3 games (which I find much more likely than the 66% implied odds).


Moneyline: Rogue Warriors +190 (1 unit)

Spread: Rogue Warriors +1.5 maps @ -120 (2 units)

Prop: Series OVER 3.5 maps @ -195 (3 units)


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KeSPA Cup

Jin Air vs Spear Gaming

Jin Air were absolutely horrific last year turning in one of the worst single season performances in any region that I've ever seen so perhaps this line is a bit reduced because of that but the truth is Spear Gaming was the #6 minor league team last year and this is a new lineup besides jungler Winter. There's a chance they're pretty good but I actually think this new look Jin Air should be much improved from last year. I get it, it's pretty easy to look at them and say "hey they don't really have to do much to be better than last year" but this roster actually looks respectable to me. They add Light who was one of the best players in Challenger Korea last year on the 11-3 Summer Team Dynamics, UmTi who has had a respectable career albeit on somewhat poor teams, and Senan who, while one dimensional, was excellent in his role as an engaging support during his time on Afreeca last year.

Just on paper this looks like a heavy advantage for Jin Air to me and while some people might want to ride the "Jin Air sucks" narrative I'm going to take advantage of the value we're getting "against the brand."

Spread: Jin Air -1.5 maps @ +125 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Jin Air -255 (2.55 units)

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Parlays:

I'm actually going to round robin (every iteration of the four moneylines by groups of two, three, and then the full four) all four of the moneyline selections here for 0.1 units each. 11 bets which makes for a setup that will pay out a bit over 13 to 1 if all four hit for a 1.1 unit investment. Bit of a long shot but I like the dogs quite a bit tonight.

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