DFS: Advanced Construction Techniques

'Imagining a Scenario'

Let's assume a pool of 35 players to build your lineup from and a contest with 100 entries. There's usually an obvious winner on a slate, often more so what does everyone do? Fill their lineups with that squads players because "Duh dude they're going to win!" I'm going to tell you why this is the wrong approach to building tournament winning lineups and it has to do with some game theory concepts that are a bit outside the box but have brought me a lot of success.

First I need to discuss a concept known as 'lineup differentiation.' If the 100 entries we mentioned in the above example have all identified one team on the slate that is a "surefire" win or is "definitely" underpriced then the MAJORITY of them are going to utilize those players in some combination or capacity. For the sake of this discussion let's say there's a five game NA LCS slate in which two of those games are the first and second place teams playing against the ninth and tenth place teams. Obviously they're heavy favorites for a reason and most people will want a piece of those points. Let's say 60 of the entries select three members from the first place team and 25 entries select three members from the second place team. That's now 85 entries containing at least three players from those two games. What if the first place team loses their match and plays poorly? That's not 60 lineups that are more than likely eliminated from winning a 100 person tournament because you more or less can't win a contest that large with three underperformers at that high price. Suddenly the field is now 40 lineups to beat instead of 100 if you avoided players from that team. This is an example of using 'lineup differentiation' to gain an edge simply by not selecting players from that team.

In the example above we witnessed the first place team drop a game to one of the worst teams and in that same example, 60% of the field had at least three players from that team which effectively eliminated 60% of the field from contention. Of the other 40 entires we said 25 would contain at least three players from the second place team. Typically you can't afford three or four or more players from the most or second most expensive team on a slate without taking either less than that, say one or two players, or keeping three or more but in combination with players from the bottom team or teams. What ends up happening, most of the time, is you end up with a lineup with two expensive second place team players and a lot of mid priced players and while this can be a good strategy for Cash Games it's rarely enough to spike a tournament so that's 60% of the field eliminated, and roughly 25% in some form within a middle point total range which is effectively elimination for a tournament where you usually need to be in the top 20% to even get your money back. I now want to explain to you what I consider to be my main edge in allowing my to take down so many big pots in tournament play and that's a technique I like to call 'Imagining a Scenario.' 

The idea behind 'Imagining a Scenario' is quite simple; to imagine an unlikely scenario actually happening. In our example this could mean effectively betting on the upset. Maybe we play three players plus the team from that last place team that "definitely" won't win. We not only get to eliminate the field of competition by 60% but we also free up a ton of salary to spend on players from that second place team or maybe on three or four carries for our flex spots. This is a really simple technique that most people are simply not brave enough to try. It's a little counterintuitive but is it really that difficult? Not at all and here's the kicker, the times when it's incorrect and everyone has stacked the heavy favorite and that heavy favorite wins, they're now often going to split the pot because there isn't enough 'lineup differentiation' in the top 20 which makes the effective value (EV) of your entry drop significantly.

The only real art to my success is knowing when to bet heavy on upsets and when not to which is, admittedly, a game of chance and more founded on game analysis and strategy than gambling or game theory. I don't bet upsets every single day but I do bet them significantly more often than the field which is why I've had so much success. Think about it. How often does an upset happen in professional League of Legends? Fairly often. Hell this past weekend we just witnessed FlyQuest with a sub mid laner defeat the mighty TSM and a few others as well. If there's 9 weeks in an LCS season and there's about one upset a week or maybe three every two weeks or thereabout then your $1 entry has significantly better odds than a lottery ticket to turn into $20. From there it's just a matter of scaling up or down depending on your bankroll.

- Types of Rosters: 1) Winnings Non-Carries + Losing/Upset Carries  2) Upset non-carries + winning carries   3) The 3 and 4 Carry lineup  4) The Price is Wrong (Free Win) (an underdog priced definite winner and an undercosted definite winner stack)

-You need to

- Quad stacking non-carries on winning teams and why it's the most effective way to win in cash games

- The Winning Team Non-Carries + Upset Carries

DraftKings DFS Strategy for League of Legends

Gelati's League of Legends DraftKings Primer

First and foremost I need to clarify that this is NOT for novice DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) players. This primer is targeted at players that already know the basics of how to play and navigate the site and are looking for some insight into my techniques and processes for successful play on DraftKings.

Although DraftKings is the only site I use for LoL DFS anymore there are others and many of these principles and strategies can be applied elsewhere as well.

A little background for those that don't know me. I've been an avid League of Legends player since shortly after beta and still play it frequently to this day. The competitive scene is one I've been dialed into just about as much as humanly possible while still working full time since it's inception before Season 1. I've been an analyst, scout, and coach for challenger teams, played in a tournament level line-up myself, and, perhaps most relevant to you all, have been writing about and analyzing professional League of Legends for years on my own time. I'm also an avid sports fan (GO PHLLY!) with some experience playing mid stakes fantasy football, gambling, and the film review and research that goes into those activities at that level so when I found out League of Legends was coming to DraftKings (end of 2015) I figured I'd try my hand at something I know a lot better than football. In that first month I turned my intial deposit into 20 times itself. After the calendar year I was up more than 100 times that.

Information First

Before setting any lineups it's important to know everything you possibly can before the game starts. Does a team use substitutes or is it just one lineup? Is the their opponent likely to use subs? Is somebody injured or sick and going to be replaced by an emergency sub? Does one team have nothing to play for because they're mathematicaly eliminated already?

Information like this is more or less a Twitter or Google search away for you and you don't want to have a player that isn't playing locked into your lineup when you could have taken ten seconds to find that out and save your money.

Utilizing Odds

In DFS for traditional sports we have Vegas to tell us who the favorites are and by how much as well as point totals to give us an idea of how the professionals think the game will play out. Typically DraftKings is pretty close with their valuations of players in League but we can find value where you least expect it. Keep in mind that it's not the job of DK to accurately value a player based on performance alone. Often "per game" and rate statistics drive their thought process so it's not always necessarily what was recent. There are a number of sports books that take bets on League of Legends and it's a good thing to look into if you're not sure who should actually be favored in a game. Yet again, this is free information that takes very little time to check.

Lineup Construction

How you build a lineup can depend on a number of factors but the main one is what type of contest you're entering. There are two main types of contests you can enter. Cash Games which encompass things like 50/50 contests and head to heads in which the top half doubles up (slightly less technically due to the rake) and Tournaments (GPPs) which are contests with a lot of entries and only a few large prizes. 

When building a Cash Game lineup the most important thing is to find and entire roster of players that can outperform their cost. In traditional sports DFS we use something called a multiplier. In short you figure out who you can expect to perform at one, two, three, or four times their value (usually in points per dollar). In Cash Games you typically play for mostly 3x or 2x value but in League we are mostly trying to get a lineup that has no weak performances from top to bottom. If you have slightly above average or average in every slot on your team you will often place in the top half. It varies week to week but you can usually add up the projected point totals to figure out roughly the number of total points you're trying to reach. Over the last year that number has been somewhere between 165-180 on MOST weeks. Remember in Cash Games you don't need to VERY WIN you just need to WIN. Scoring 250 points doesn't win you more than scoring 170 points if that 170 is in the top half.

Tournament play is a different animal, especially in League of Legends when compared to traditional sports.. With slates typically limited to 5 or 6 games that gives you somewhere in the ballpark 25-35 players to pick from and even fewer legal permutations of said players due to salary cap, tournament play is a bit more challenging and requires a different thought process. In traditional DFS, say the NFL for example, you might think to select an inexpensive player that you think could have a good day due to a matchup and maybe 1% of entries will have that player (This is a concept called ownership percentage). In League you have far fewer players to pick from, in fact you have hundreds less in many cases, and because of this tournament play is all about upsets and stacks. You are more or less building a lineup under the assumption that a team with cheaper players (usually the underdog) will win. Typically if that upset happens, game theory suggests that you will be vastly ahead of the majority of the field (a concept called lineup differentiation). Borrowing from our previous mention of multipliers, we want players that can achieve significantly more than their value and lots of them. Unlike Cash Games, Tournament play requires that you VERY WIN as only the best of the best lineups will win a prize.

Stacking 

One of the best ways to gain an edge over your opponents is a technique called 'stacking.' To 'stack' is to select multiple players from the same game on one lineup in hope that that game will yield more points than normal resulting in a larger amount of points gained. League of Legends has a lot fewer players available to differentiate your lineup so selecting the correct stacks can often be the difference in winning and losing lineups. An example of a stack would be to select the Top and Jungle on the same team, or to select the Mid laner and the opposing AD Carry if you think a game will be high in kills.

Advanced Construction Techniques

(Coming Soon)

Betting: August 11th (LPL, EU LCS, NA LCS)

LOL Pro League (China) 8/11 Schedule:

TopSports Gaming (-208, -1.5 @ +138)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 24.5
FunPlus Phoenix (+159, +1.5 @ -182)


EDward Gaming (-263, -1.5 @ +114
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 23.5
Team WE (+200, +1.5 @ -147
Rogue Warriors (-667, -1.5 @ -192)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5
OMG (+421, +1.5 @ +145)

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Moneyline: TopSports Gaming -208 (2 units)

PROP: Exact TopSports 2-1 @ +233 (0.5 unit)

PROP: Over 2.5 total games @ +113 (1 unit)
TopSports still make me pretty uneasy. I don't want to say a lot of their wins have been flukes because they haven't been but it still feels that way. Their match against EDG was just chock full of really bizarre situations but a lot of their matches have been and this team just gets it done. If we consider EDG in this tier now (read: we misevaluated and this team is worse than we all thought), then we have FunPlus who are either bottom of mid tier or top of low tier depending on who you ask, I think it's pretty reasonable to expect a TopSports victory but I'm just skeptical on the sweep. TopSports have only 2-0'd Snake and Team WE this season. They've also been 0-2'd fur times including one to OMG. EVERY OTHER MATCH has been a three game series. These two teams played a competitive back and forth series the first time around and I expect the same to happen again but I'm breaking ties in favor of TopSports. Moyu has been playing out of his mind the past two series absorbing ganks effectively, minimizing losses, and demonstrating masterful Gangplank play which can be a pick that draws bans. FunPlus tend to put a lot of draft stock and resources toward GimGoon so I'm thinking Moyu can neutralize FunPlus' style with how he's been playing recently and they can get enough other advantages on the map to take this one down.
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Handicapped: EDG -1.5 maps @ +114 (2 units)

I know I know EDG have looked like garbage and we've been burned by them a few times this week but they're such a bad matchup for Team WE. This is one of the better early game teams against one of the worst early game teams in any region. As long as EDG stick to what they're good at they could be at half effectiveness and probably still win this series 2-0. A week ago this would have been a slam dunk 5+ unit play, I'm doing something I don't normally do and keeping it tame out of fear here. I think this is the right play but damn it feels bad right now.

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Handicapped: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ -192 (4 units)
This is another match I'm dialing back just a bit because I'm not sure the temperment Rogue Warriors will have. They haven't mathematically locked up first yet but they have a few more matches to do so. I'm putting my money on Rogue Warriors being a prideful team, led by DoinB's attitude, that simply enjoy smashing bad teams too much to pass up this opportunity. OMG aren't going to roll over here as they're not technically eliminated from playoff contention yet although it's a real long shot being two series behind both FunPlus AND Snake.

This series is basically asking "Does Rogue Warriors care about this match still?" If you think they do then I think you can faithfully drop a 4-5 unit wager on the handicap, if you think they take the foot off the gas and OMG fight tooth and nail for their playoff spot then I think it's best to go with the OMG +1.5 or avoid this. Personally I think Rogue Warriors could 2-0 this even without much incentive to do so and this win would technically LOCK the #1 seed for them.

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European LCS 8/11 Schedule

ROCCAT -159 2 units LOSS

I threw this up on reddit and twitter late last night. Didn't work out.

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North American LCS 8/11 Schedule



Going a little heavier than usual on the LCS today. I actually like a few of these plays but my limit is 3 units as it has been all season for the LCS regions outside of live bets. Best of ones and all.
Moneyline: Echo Fox +122 (2 units)

I think Echo Fox can break the "NA blue side" trend here. I know I'm Mr. 100 Thieves hater and all but Echo Fox have been themselves. Sloppy sometimes but very overwhelming most of the time. I just think Huni and Dardoch can take over a game more than Aphromoo here and this line should be much closer to even than it is. This is a combination of me thinking Echo Fox are the stronger team, going against the grain on the blue side trend (they were blue last time they met) which isn't to be taken lightly if you ask League reddit (lol), and breaking ties in favor of game breakers. Great players take over games like this and I expect that to be the case today.

Moneyline: Team Liquid -250  (3 units)

Liquid could move another game toward securing first place and I don't think they'll be "looking past" OpTic here with each game mattering so much. They're just in another class and are, to me, the best team in NA.


Moneyline: Team Solo Mid -156 (3 units)

I think we're overthinking this just because TSM have had a rough season. Counter Logic Gaming might be the worst team in the LCS this split and they just fired their coach. There's a chance there's a surge of energy from them because of that and ultimately I think it's a good move but TSM absolutely NEED this win. At some point talented players just win games and they haven't been. I think I was wrong on my preseason outlook for TSM but this team is almost certainly better than they've shown.

PARLAY: Liquid -250 + C9 -250 + TSM -156 + Echo fox +122 (0.5 units @ +614)

Betting: August 10th (LPL, EU LCS)

LOL Pro League (China) 8/10 Schedule:

JD Gaming (-303, -1.5 @ -102)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 17.5
BiliBili Gaming (+225, +1.5 @ -128)


Royal Never Give Up (-1250, -1.5 @ -263)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 17.5
Vici Gaming (+662, +1.5 @ +186)

 We had an utterly ridiculous undefeated day yesterday spiking all four of our straight bets including our pick of the week AS WELL AS a bunch of huge parlays. All in all we ended up over 30 units on the day for my biggest day of the season. It's just a shame the LCK regular season is over but let's see if we can improve our LPL results and get them back into the green again.

PENDING PARLAY: 

total odds: +549 on a 1 unit play, would be a nice payoff. If this ends up being correct then I'll be extra salty about the seven teamer that EDG ruined that would've been a 15 unit payout... anyway here we go!

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Handicapped: JD Gaming -1.5 @ -102 (5 units)

JD have quietly moved into the upper echelon of LPL teams and quite frankly I think they're better than EDG. It's not just our most recent loss with EDG (imagine the parlay plays I had with them tacked on to todays.... grrr). This has been a steady drumbeat since Rift Rivals. Something is going on with EDG. I don't know if it's that they don't care or their players are just burnt out but they need to do something. Their drafts have been fairly one dimensional but not overtly bad or anything like that. Anyway the reason I'm talking about EDG is because I think that was the last "bad" loss this JD team had and it was early last week. Game one they could have lost but stalled it to 50+ minutes and took it from EDG, then got smashed in 25 minutes by EDG in game two and then smashed EDG right back in 23 minutes in game three. The 2-1 series loss to TopSports suddenly looks forgiveable not only because TopSports has been much better this season and is firmly a "better than bottom tier" team but because it was only JD's SECOND SERIES LOSS ... Let that sink in people. This team has only lost one series since losing their first match 2-1 to Invictus who look like the best team in China right now. That was on June 11th. JUNE 11th!

BiliBili have recently had days where they look like they've finally figured it out and are on course and then other, more frequent, series where they still look lost and without identity. If you consider EDG, TopSports, and FunPlus in the mid tier then BiliBili appear to be the inconsistent, slow start mid tier team that's capable of taking games off other good teams. Remember this is a team that also took a game off Rogue Warriors a few weeks ago but BiliBili have also lost games to LGD, got obliterated by OMG, and dropped a game to WE last week. BiliBili should be better than they are, and I actually do think they're a mid tier team but they started off so slow (1-5) that they're more or less eliminated from playoff contention at this point (unless they win out and Suning can't win two series).

You could look at this two ways; JD are due for a loss or JD should destroy BiliBili. What I mean by "due for a loss" is will drop a game. I'm choosing the JD should destroy BiliBili option not only because I believe it's true but because the -303 is a dumb moneyline to bet when we can take the -102 value. Yes I know I always expect the 2-0 from heavy favorites but JD are loosely in a similar situation to a lot of what we saw in the LCK this week where they could potentially take the #2 seed from RNG. RNG are 11-4 match score, 24-11 game score, JD have 2 series in tow sitting at 11-2 and 24-12. When the difference between 2nd and 3rd is a bye into quarterfinals you play hard for that and I think it's totally in cards for JD to take the #2 seed with or without Uzi playing for RNG. Having that 2 series advantage is going to be a massive edge for them.

I'm taking the JD handicap here. They're actually a great team and BiliBili haven't been even when they've looked more themselves. Also this is a stylistic mismatch with JD able to play uptempo exceptionally as well as scaling compositions. It's going to put BBG in a bind in drafts. There's an added bonus here of BBG shuffling their lineup a lot and there's a high likelihood we see some of their lesser played players to get stage experience for next season or to "see what they have" like a traditional sports team preparing for next year even if they aren't really eliminated mathematically. JD only have their 5 players that have started every single game this season and I see no reason for them to change that. Looks like another lock to me.


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RNG vs Vici

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -114 (1 unit)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -114 (1 unit)

PROP: RNG First Blood @ -192 (1 unit)

PROP: RNG First Blood @ -192 (1 unit)


This should be a complete obliteration regardless of what lineup or positions RNG's players play. Vici suck and RNG are at least very good no matter who is playing where on that roster. The juice is just too high for me on this. I don't normally like playing over 200, I did for KT yesterday but this is just a bit much for me and China is a weirder region in situations like this. I do think that RNG will be playing hard here as they'll need as many wins as possible to fend off JD Gaming from getting the #2 seed and JD have 2 more series to play than RNG does the rest of the way. I'll be parlaying this pick instead of playing it straight up.

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European LCS 8/10 Schedule


Misfits -556 @ H2K +369
FC Schalke 04 -122 @ Team Vitality -104
Fnatic -345 @ Giants +252
ROCCAT +114 @ Splyce -145
Unicorns of Love +218 @ G2 eSports -294

Moneyline: ROCCAT +114 (2 units)

So I know I haven't had too much action on Europe and the NA LCS this split mostly because I'm trying to dodge best of ones and that's been fairly good for me but after rewatching a few of these matches from last week again I have a few conclusions. I'll discuss all of them here right now because this is my only non-parlay pick tomorrow.

Splyce are bad. They're a team that surrenders the early game and isn't even that great of a late game team and unlike the other mid tier teams like ROCCAT and Giants they have no real redeeming characteristics. This is a tema that quite honestly looks checked-out which sounds really weird to say for a current playoff team but is true. I'm not going to put too much into the H2K loss because it's really easy for teams to not take a team seriously especially when they're 0-13 but honestly Splyce were mega sloppy in that game, beat a Misfits team that was as lazy as Splyce were against H2K and resting on their laurels.. It's difficult to extract relevant data from best of ones as it could just be a flash in the pan type of scenario but this team just doesn't seem to have that competitive edge to me.

Now maybe they realize their playoff chances are in jeopardy and they turn it up. If that happens then I'll eat my hat on it but I like the constant effort and try-hard mentality of ROCCAT for an upset here. Other than last weeks loss to Giants ROCCAT haven't really had any bad losses and a lot of those have been really competitive games against top level teams like Misfits and Fnatic. ROCCAT also lost the first meeting between these two teams in late June so they'll have vengeance on the mind especially for a potential tiebreak scenario. Of course limited wager here because of best of ones and the volatility of EU but I like ROCCAT for a couple units to pull the upset here and Splyce to get punished for their seemingly lazy attitude.

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PARLAYS:

Parlay (2): JD -1.5 @ -102 + RNG -1.5 @ -263  (3 units) total odds: +173

Parlay (4): JD -1.5 @ -102 + RNG -1.5 @ -263 + JTeam -455 + AHQ -250 (0.75 units) total odds: +367

Parlay (6): JD -1.5 @ -102 + RNG -1.5 @ -263 + JTeam -455 + AHQ -250 + Gambit -323 + M19 -556 (1 unit) total odds: +621

Parlay (4): Misfits -556 + ROCCAT +114 + Fnatic -345 + G2 -294  -  0.5 units  -  total odds: +337

Betting: August 9th (LCK, LPL)

LOL Champions Korea 8/9 Schedule:

Kingzone DragonX (-256, -1.5 @ +116)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 17.5
SK Telecom (+194, +1.5 @ -152)


KT Rolster (-909, -1.5 @ -286)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 17.5
MVP (+538, +1.5 @ +192)

(image from lol.gamepedia.com)

So with Hanwha losing yesterday they knocked themselves out of the "money" of Championship Points and since they received none last season they are actually completely done for the season. It's kinda sad  because they were a competitive team this season and tried hard every single week, besides those few weird ones in the middle of this season. They have some solid foundations and great coaching and I think if they can put some players around Lava this could be a real threat moving forward as some of these other players age. What HLE being eliminated does is open the door for SK Telecom to play in the Worlds Gauntlet when that rolls around since they had 30 Championship Points from finishing 4th last split. 

Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +116 (8 units) (PICK OF THE WEEK!)


Does this mean SKT will suddenly be trying hard for this last match? Not necessarily. Just more likely. They still have nothing to play for in this match and I think would more likely not show anything/opt to rest starters in preparation for a difficult push through a highly competitive gauntlet. Kingzone on the other hand could take over the #2 seed with SPECIFICALLY a 2-0 victory. Why a 2-0 specifically? Because that would put them to 13-5 match record, and +13 games. They NEED to 2-0 this series because Gen.G holds the head-to-head tiebreaker against them so a 2-1 would put them at +12 which is the same as Gen.G and the next tiebreaker is H2H. If it wasn't for these specific circumstances and the playoff seeding being so crucial in such a competitive region AND the playoff format itself I wouldn't like this pick but because it is I'm absolutely in love with Kingzone to 2-0 this. Combine that with the fact that Kingzone have displayed the trajectory that so many great teams in every league have showed us. A slow, dull start to the Summer, likely from resting players or from players just avoiding burnout by practicing less, a ramp up after a few wake up call losses, and back into form just in time for the end of season and playoffs. It's a script as old as professional League of Legends itself and you see it in traditional sports as well (think the Pittsburgh Penguins every year).

Going into this season back in January I pinned Kingzone as the best team in the World and for awhile they looked like it but they started showing vulnerabilities. Do I still think they're the best team in the world? I'm not as confident as I was but I do think they're in the top two or three names. This is a monster of a team with their eyes set on the #2 seed. SK Telecom have nothing to really play for except for repetitions and I feel this will be a situation where the subs potentially start to get them some more stage experience for the last time this year. I sitll think we'll see Pirean and Effort and potentially Blossom and Leo as well.

Do the math. Subs playing for stage time vs one of the strongest teams on the planet over the past few years that's hungry for a #2 seed and NEEDS to specifically 2-0 to get that. This is a slam dunk and my Pick of the Week.

 
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PROP: Decided map played? NO @ -233 (5 units) 

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -114  (1 unit)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -114 (1 unit)


For some reason this had stronger odds for us than the -1.5 @ -286 so we'll take it. I fully expect a KT 2-0 for similar reasons to a Kingzone 2-0. The situation for KT Rolster is that they're trying to reach Griffin who are 13-5 match score with a +15 game differential. KT Rolster is 12-5 with a +13 game differential so with a 2-0 win they would advance to tie Griffin at 13-5 match, +15 game. The catch is that KT Rolster hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. However MVP are not without something to play for. Unlike SK Telecom in the previous series MVP will be putting their best effort out to avoid the relegation tournament. The problem is that in order to avoid relegations they'd need to specifically 2-0 KT Rolster. A 2-1 wouldn't be good enough because their game differential would fall below Jin Air's -17.

So now that we know the stakes why am I going with KT? "But Gelati, the KT Rollercoaster!?!?! They always lose in spots like this!" They always lose in spots like earlier this week too. KT Rolster has a history of choking but I'm one to believe that can change. This team is playing at an absolutely ridiculous level right now. They utterly smashed Hanwha Life earlier this week. Like a full on embarassment. It looked like a mismatched solo queue game. Even if KT went out and parties their asses off I think they could beat MVP hungover. I also think this is stylistically and strategically a terrible matchup. MVP's best player is ADD in the top lane and Smeb could wipe the floor with him with the way he's been playing the past few weeks. MVP's worst player, to me at least, is Ian and UCal is going to have his way with him. UCal destroyed Lava, a budding star, in a matchup where he was counterpicked, had no jungle help, and was FORCING FIGHTS not playing defensively. KT's confidence is at a ridiculous level right now and I'm expecting these to be definitive stomps "KT Rollercoaster" or not. The only reasons this isn't a heavier play is because MVP actually have something to play for and the juice is really high.

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PARLAYS:

NOTE: I put these in before full deciding on my specific plays for the game so if you decide to tail this get the bet I used in the pick of NO DECIDER MAP PLAYED @ -233 in the KT match for better odds rather than the -1.5 @ -286.

KT Rolster -1.5 @ -286 + Kingzone -256  -  5 units - total odds: -114

KT Rolster -1.5 @ -286 + Kingzone -1.5 @ +116  -  5 units  -  total odds: +192KT Rolster -1.5 @ -286 + Kingzone -1.5 @ +116 + Hong Kong Attitude -370 -  1 unit  -  total odds: +270
KT Rolster -1.5 @ -286 + Kingzone -1.5 @ +116 + Hong Kong Attitude -370 + JD Gaming -370 + RNG -1.5 @ -263  -  1 unit  -  total odds: +549

Mixed parlay set here banking on what I think is a fairly easy to predict set of matches. We have called every match down to game score correct this week (even if we didn't necessarily bet it or bet in that direction for value reasons) EXCEPT EDG yesterday who are just raining on our parade.

Betting: August 8th (LCK, LPL)

LOL Champions Korea 8/8 Schedule:

Afreeca Freecs (-323, -1.5 @ -115)
@ Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 17.5
Jin Air GW (+237, +1.5 @ -116)


Griffin (-909, -1.5 @ -256)
@ Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 17.5
BBQ Olivers (+541, +1.5 @ +184)

(images compliments of lol.gamepedia.com) 

After this morning's matches let's take a look at how things stand. First of all I should have played to my gut on the sextuple 2-0 sweep parlay I wanted to do for LCK but instead added on RNG like an IDIOT to it. Anyway we'll be parlaying the sweeps for the rest of the LCK week because, spoiler alert, I think it's just going to be 2-0's all week. I'll be doing different iterations from 2-4 on this. I think it's a sweet opportunity to make a HUGE payday by Thursday morning. Secondly, KT completed step one on their journey to the #1 seed AND locking in a Worlds berth. Now all they need to do is not party too hard tonight and come out and smash MVP in the final match of the regular season on Thursday. Thirdly, in losing to KT without a single win this morning, HLE now no longer control their own fate and need a Jin Air upset. If they were able to take a single game this morning against KT they would have had the tiebreaker in game score if Jin Air were to take a game and lose but now Jin Air needs to win outright for them to hold the #5 seed. Fourthly, Jin Air are very likely to avoid relegation now unless MVP were to, by some miracle, beat KT Rolster 2-0 on Thursday morning. This means a few things, either they won't really care about tomorrow's match any longer or they'll want to really avoid relegations by taking a single game win. This is kind of a grey area and pretty weak logically so we're just going to assume something in the middle. Jin Air aren't really playing for much and frankly I think Jin Air or MVP would beat the #2 Challenger team Winners (formerly Ever8) pretty handedly anyway. The most important thing for the bottom table teams was to avoid DAMWON Gaming who look like they could be the next Griffin and are currently 20-1 in game score (+19) in the Challenger League which both MVP and Jin Air have already done. Good Luck BBQ!

And now the picks....

Handicapped: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ -108 (7 units)

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 36:00 @ -101 (1 unit)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 36:00 @ -101 (1 unit)


THIS IS A HEAVILY FEELING/MOMENTUM BASED PICK. TAIL WITH CAUTION!!

I think you all saw this one coming. I know a lot of people are skeptical. Afreeca looked absolutely dreadful against HLE the other day but it's not like HLE are a bad team and to be honest with you I think maybe some nerves kicked in. So what's to stop the nerves from kicking in here? In my experience in both esports and traditional sports, teams that get a second chance or a new lease on life, or in this case a playoff opportunity, get a boost of energy and hope and that's an extremely powerful thing. Afreeca get a mulligan with HLE punting 2-0 this morning. Jin Air have nothing to really play for as the chances MVP 2-0 Thursday are slim to none especially with KT needing the 2-0 for #1 seed (and locking a World spot). It's not like Jin Air won't be trying here, they are professionals after all, but they won't exactly be particularly motivated either. They could have the "let's play spoiler" mentality but I'm confident that Afreeca 2-0 this even considering that. Let's rewind to last week before the HLE loss. Afreeca take a close series against a relatively weak but desparate SKT team. Teams in "must win" situations are tough but they got the job done. They did drop a game to MVP, an 0-2 against a hungry Kingzone and the heartbreaker loss to Gen.G. Before that they lost to BBQ 1-2. This has ben a really rough second half and I think Afreeca got a bit figured out. They also were toying with their roster, lost some power to the meta slightly shifting, and perhaps were resting on their laurels too much. I expect this second chance to be a jolt for them.. They aren't going to experiment or try new things they're going to do whatever it takes to win this series and lock up a playoff spot.

The logical wager would be for Afreeca to choke just like they did n Sunday against HLE but HLE are also a much better team than Jin Air are and a much more versatile one as well. Jin Air are really one dimensional and Afreeca are capable of playing both uptempo and scaling compositions. They are the jack of all trades but masters of none. Their average game time is deceptive to look at. This is a team that is very capable of playing faster games and I'm expecting that to happen here. Jin Air concede the early game in just about every draft because even when they try to play that way they're bad at it. They play to their win condition which is scaling for and protecting Teddy. Whether that's with snowbally mages or Yasuo bottom as Aiming has shown proficiency with, or with the variety of strong early game champions Kuro has shown this season like Leblanc, Galio, Lissandra, Rumble, Talon, and more I think the well coached Afreeca will have a solid game plan in place to take care of this and swiftly 2-0 this series. 

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PARLAY: Afreeca -1.5 + Griffin -1.5 (5 units to win ~13.4 units)

This is an absolutely massive parlay bet and I don't usually bet more than a unit or two on them but these are pretty good odds and I want to take advantage. I feel confidently that even as rookies Griffin can't mess this up and Afreeca should handedly take care of Jin Air as discussed above. However with the juice as high as it is in the Griffin series I'm just not going to touch it as a moneyline wager. If they're going to lose I'm going to limit my exposure to parlaying it not laying a ton of money on a -256 handicap.


I'm also going to parlay the sweeps for the rest of the week in as many iterations as I can. I'm basically betting against even a single upset game. There is just too much of a gap between the top and bottom teams and too much for the top teams to play for and too little for the bottom teams to play for to reasonably expect any game losses in this short week. This is a huge opportunity to make some money as we close out the regular season. It's also our last chance to push to pad our bankroll before Worlds.

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LOL Pro League (China) 8/8 Schedule:

EDward Gaming (-270, -1.5 @ +119)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5
TopSports Gaming (+237, +1.5 @ -116)


Team WE (-156, -1.5 @ +189)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5

OMG (+122, +1.5 @ -256)

Handicapped: EDG -1.5 maps @ +119 (5 units)

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -114  (1 unit)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -114  (1 unit)

This is going to look strange coming off of an embarassing loss to LGD Sunday morning to increase EDG's losing streak to four series in a row but I have my reasons. EDG have had two really bad losses in this four game streak. Losing 0-2 to BiliBili is pretty bad but was perhaps a bit of overconfidence as they had won seven of their first nine series before then and BiliBili was in must win mode. Losing to LGD, arguably the worst team in the LPL, is perhaps worse. They also took a game off of the best team in China in Invictus as well as a 26 minute win against JD who have proven to be one of the stronger early game teams in the league. This is all a really long-winded way of saying EDG are tough to pin down. We're going with a heavy wager on the EDG 2-0 and here's why.

If you look at a lot of EDG's drafts in the past couple weeks they've been very extremist in nature. They aren't drafting well rounded compositions. They're either all in early or late with no middle ground. In some ways this fits their style but they've also been mixing up their lineup to include ADC sub Hope and swapping ClearLove and Haro quite a bit. I want to see this team go back to their commitment to early game drafting and I think they absolutely will against TopSports. Why? Because TopSports are an early - mid game drafting team and when they lose it's because other teams draft strong early games to make sure they can't just snowball games. Almost every single one of TopSports losses this season has been the result of other teams choosing lanes that can actually fight back. Even the abysmal LGD took a series off TopSports with this strategy and they're an absolutely horrible early game team that almost never plays that style. As a matter of fact in that series LGD picked early game champions, staved off the aggression, faltered to close the game out and game two ended up dragging out to 43 minutes and they still won because of TopSports inability to close without an early lead. There have been a few isolated games where TopSports has shown a willingness to attempt scaling but they've only done it against bad teams like Vici and LGD and it mostly hasn't ended well when they do it. THIS IS EXTREMELY PREDICTABLE.

The last time these two faced EDG utterly smashed game one and then opted to play scaling with Kaisa in game two which ended up becoming a bloody mess of a game with 46 total kills. EDG will learn from their recent mistakes as well as their near game loss in the first series with TopSports. This team is significantly better than their recent performance has been. This is a Top 4 team in the LPL and other than experimenting with their lineup and some different draft strategies to become more well rounded, as elite teams are afforded the luxury to do, there is absolutely no reason they should be tied in the series standings with a team like TopSports. TopSports have been impressive this season, no doubt, but they're simply not this good and their record is the result of an extremely weak West Region. This is a spot where EDG will demonstrate why they're a full tier or more better than TopSports despite their record. EDG aren't the team you've seen the past couple weeks and with their #2 seed under threat I think you'll see the real deal here. EDG have used up their cushion. It's time to turn it up for playoffs.

NOTE: I'm not going with the OVER on kills because I think that game two in the first series was the result of a draft situation that I don't think EDG will put themselves in again. The meta was also much different then and Morgana bottom has fallen out of favor so forced dives and fights that end up in 1 for 1s or 2 for 3s and such don't happen as often as they did at the beginning of the season. I also think this is just going to be two fast games so I'm taking the UNDER on game time and not touching the kill totals despite leaning on the UNDER for those as well.

There is a good chance I'll up this wager if the line doesn't move too heavily so check Twitter.

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Team WE vs OMG

I can't get a feel for this game. Both of these teams are bottom dwellers that are feast or famine. If you go strictly by the metrics then Team WE is the selection here as they've done significantly more team damage with about the same resources but OMG are also the slightly stronger early game team. WE look like they've been fixing a lot of their obviously one dimensional tendencies and are at least picking one winning lane to stave off complete early game losses so that makes me lean slightly toward them but I'm really not sure. -156 is too much to pay for the slight lean. This line should probably be closer to -120/-101 or something. If you want the value OMG is the pick but im not confident enough to even put anything on this game.

Betting: August 7th (LCK, LPL)

LOL Champions Korea 8/7 Schedule:

Gen.G eSports (-833, -1.5 @ -217)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 17.5
MVP (+490, +1.5 @ +162)


KT Rolster (-179, -1.5 @ +165)
@ Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 18.5
Hanwha Life eSports (+139, +1.5 @ -222)

(images compliments of lol.gamepedia.com) 

Before we dive into the picks I want to discuss some of the standings implications for these matches. The final week of LCK is a shortened, three day week with every team playing one match EXCEPT for KT Rolster and MVP who have two. Playoff seeding for the Top 4 spots will likely rely a lot on tiebreakers like game differential and head-to-head matchups UNLESS there is an upset. Additionally remember that Korea uses a Playoff Gauntlet system. The #5 seed plays #4, winner plays #3, etc. so seeding is CRUCIAL.

Gen.G could move to 13-5 with a win which would put pressure on KT Rolster to actually win both of their matches this week. It would also force Kingzone to win their series in order to hold on to the #2 seed. KT Rolster, currently in the #4 seed, has the potential to end up with the #1 seed with back to back wins this week which is VERY feasable considering they face Hanwha tomorrow and MVP on Thursday. MVP are out of contention for the #7 spot but they're fighting for that #8 seed which would help them avoid the relegation tournament. With their challenger for that #8 seed Jin Air facing an Afreeca that could potentially be in "must win" situation if Hanwha were to lose today then I think we can consider MVP to be at least putting forth a full effort in these games as they do matter for something to them. There are other implications but I'll keep this relatively brief and pertinent to tomorrow's matches.

TL:DR - EVERYBODY is still playing for something EXCEPT BBQ Olivers and SK Telecom. Whether it's playoff gauntlet seeding, a playoff position, or to avoid relegation, the other eight teams all have a lot at stake and will be putting their all into these games. Al the top of the table is so close that every single game win and loss will count.

With that out of the way lets take a look at the picks.

Handicapped: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -217 (8 units)

As discussed above, Gen.G are currently holding the #3 seed with only this match to go so they'll be doing everything in their power to put themselves in the best position here. Their scenarios range from #1 to #4. With a 2-0 win and a loss by any score from Kingzone AND KT losing one of their next two series AND specifically a Griffin 0-2 loss they could rocket up to the #1 seed. They could also end up in the #4 seed even if they win 2-0 and KT gets at least +1 wins in their next two matches (3-2 for example).

All of this is a lot to keep track of so I'm just going to give you my opinion on what I think the most likely outcome is for Gen.G which is that they end up with the #4 seed despite 2-0'ing this series. I just think KT having two matches to play is such a huge edge for them so I don't see the "dream" situation for Gen.G happening with the top end teams having such easy matches this week (besides KT vs HLE). If HLE win 2-1 then that forces a necessary 2-0 by KT later this week against MVP which could be riveting but I digress.

The point I'm getting at is that Gen.G want to make this a clean 2-0 sweep to give themselves the best chance at something great. The scary part is that they could also just punt this game to "not show anything" and still end up AT WORST with the #4 seed. However with such a competitive top of the table in Korea, and Gen.G only having 10 championship points from the Spring Split I think it's safe to assume they'll show up here because they'll want the best chance possible to either win the Summer Split or acrue a big point total to get in that way without having to play it out for the 3rd Worlds spot in that separate gauntlet. MVP are fighting to avoid relegation but unfortunately for them I think Jin Air have looked better and MVP are about to run into two buzzsaws that will need all the wins they can get this week in Gen.G and KT Rolster. Gen.G don't really "stomp" games by the nature of how they play but they should be able to cleanly dispatch MVP and take care of business. I know this team has a tendency to not show up when it matters (except at Worlds last year) but I think they've got this one. I don't really think MVP has a strong chance even if Gen.G didn't have much to play for so I'm going with a huge 8 unit wager on this pick.
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Moneyline: KT Rolster -179  (5 units)

Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +165 (2 units)

As we've touched on a few times already this is, in my opinion, going to be the only competitive match this week but I happen to have a strong stance on it. We haven't discussed too much about Hanwha though. Hanwha have not mathematically secured the #5 seed away from Afreeca yet. If Hanwha lose and Afreeca win they'd have the same match score so the next tiebreaker is game differential. Currently Hanwha is 25-19 for +6 while Afreeca is 24-20 for +4. Afreeca winning 2-1 and Hanwha losing 1-2 would put them both at +5. Hanwha has the head to head tiebreaker so they'd get the #5 spot. If Hanwha gets 0-2'd and Afreeca wins by any score then Afreeca get it. If Afreeca lose then Hanwha get the spot no matter what. What this all means is that Hanwha are going to be giving it their all to take at least one game from KT Rolster so the logical bet would be to take the +1.5 or the KT 2-1 right? Yes that's right but we're looking to the next level.

KT would make their lives a lot easier with a 2-0 here and I personally think that, despite being right next to each other in the standings, there is a huge gap between the Top 4 teams and Afreeca and Hanwha. The metagame is trending back toward more traditional team compositions with either 2 or 2.5 core comps with a marksman becoming the norm again. Part of Hanwha's success this season was that they were good at the mage bottom comps ahead of the curve. As the season has gone on they've shown very limited progression. In other words they've stagnated. They aren't a one dimensional team by any stretch but they are limited in their potential upside. To me this team is well coached and disciplined but their ceiling isn't very high. They have a great player in Lava and everyone else is just pretty good or has been playing at their peak. Hanwha deserve to be the 5th or 6th best team and would likely trash teams from other regions but in Korea it's too competitive so it often comes down to how high your peaks can go. Historically the teams that do well in the late Summer in most regions are the ones that finally realize their potential, not the ones that are just maintaining and that's what I think is happening with these two teams. 

I know it's just one match and I'm extrapolating but KT Rolster have choked in big spots and tasted bitter defeat in these situations enough times that I actually think they're going to buck the trend and utterly smash Hanwha here. It's KT's time. The metagame is in their favor, they've own 8 of their last 10 matches and they're going to have that extra fire in their belly because of both the playoff seeding battle and because Hanwha 2-0'd them last time out and they'll want payback. First place is within reach for them. With back to back 2-0's putting them at 13-5 and +15 that would create a situation where they would have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Griffin and Kingzone 2-0'ing would only put them at +13. What I'm saying to you all is that I'm confident that's how this is going to end up. Your playoff seeding will be: #1 - KT Rolster, #2 - Griffin, #3 - Kingzone, #4 - Gen.G, #5 - Afreeca. I'm VERY LIKELY going to up the unit count on this but I'll admit I'm going to wait and see how the first match goes. I'll perhaps put winnings from that towards upgrading this.
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LOL Pro League (China) 8/7 Schedule:

Invictus Gaming (-714, -1.5 @ -189)
@ Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 24.5
BiliBili Gaming (+447, +1.5 @ +141)


Royal Never Give Up (-435, -1.5 @ -154)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5

Suning Gaming (+307, +1.5 @ +113)

Handicapped: Invictus Gaming -1.5 @ -189 (6 units)

I like the direction the metagame is going for BiliBili but they'd been struggling to cleanly beat even bottom of the table teams like WE and OMG (who they lost to 0-2). Invictus are just going to run this team over. A common reservation for this match is going to be that Invictus have clinched playoffs and are two matches ahead of second place AND they have second place RNG on the slate later this week so why would they care about this? I'm going with the opposite angle. I think Invictus are going to want to clean up shop here and then beat RNG so they can eithe rest or conceal strategies for the last two weeks because they'll have the #1 seed locked up with back-to-back wins here this week. Stylistically this is a nightmare for BiliBili. Invictus have the fastest game time in the LPL at 29:17 (second is Rogue Warriors at 31:05). They are one of the best early game teams on the planet and BiliBili, much like WE, often concede the early game in an attempt to scale. The counterargument to this pick is that, while winning their last seven series in a row, Invictus have dropped one game in the past six of those series. Some of those have included weaker teams and similar teams to Bilibili like the aforementioned Team WE but I think Invictus squarely clean this one up. You're looking at a team that just beat Rogue Warriors in 24:24 and 19:54... that's right 19:54! Rogue Warriors are MILES better than BiliBili and I'm going to choose to go against the trend on this one and slam Invictus.

I might end up going with the UNDER's too here. Check twitter.
 

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Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ -154 (2-4 units PENDING)
I might end up going with the -1.5 maps here but I'm going to wait until closer to game time to see how much I wager. If I hear definitively that Uzi is playing then I'll likely go 4 units on this. If not it'll either be smaller or no bet. Suning have been pretty good this season but they've also lost to WE and TopSports (yesterday) so I'm really not sure what to think of them. I know what they're good at and that's playing through Fury mid and late and H4cker getting them to that point from the jungle but I think RNG have the answers. They tend to handle these types of teams well. With Uzi in the lineup RNG handedly stomped this in under 63 minutes total their first meeting in Week 2. Check Twitter for this one as well.