Friday, May 1, 2020

May 2nd: LPL Finals




April 26th Recap:


LPL: 6 - 4 (-5.8775 units)

Live: 1 - 0 (+5.55 units)



Total: -0.3275 units



It's been a quiet week since there haven't been any games in the four major regions to write about. It's been a much needed break for me after the insane six week stretch we just went through with the condensed schedule, writing for multiple sites, and still working my full-time gig. What you can expect moving forward in the next couple of weeks:

1) Summer Futures positions 
2) Summer Tier lists for each region
3) Recap of my Spring split in more detail
4) More streaming opportunities for me over at www.twitch.tv/GelatiLOL
5) The Gold Card Podcast every week still!
6) Some big things prepared for next season that I'm really excited for

You probably won't hear too much from me other than that in the coming weeks as this is the only real downtime I'll get to unwind until November with the Summer season and then worlds shortly after that. I'll still be active on Twitter in this time with any questions though!

Let's recap the other semi-final from earlier this week.


FPX / JDG

That's two playoff series where I've been absolutely gutted by laying heavy juice on map totals like an absolute moron. It's why I tend to avoid that bet. It's not indicative of a lot of except in situations where you have a team that you think is superior but very inconsistent and even then you want good odds on it. I laid -400 and an idiotic 8 units with the idea in my head of taking the W there for 2 and getting a 3-1 on either side for a quarter and the rest covering for itself but in reality just looking at my staking for this series there's just all sorts of logical problems. (shoutout to @JP_IronWolf for calling my out on this)


On bets of 3.4u or higher this season I went 2-7. Three of those were -400 plays on the OVER 3.5 maps in the past week that went 1-2 for a net of -11u. Unacceptable not because of the side or idea being unjustified but because of staking.

Just don't do it... it's not that complicated. I constantly preach that the map total is one of the most deceptive bets in the LOL market and then I do this? Play it small in the spots where it actually makes some sense or don't play it at all.



Staking problems/inconsistency is not an unfamiliar thing for me. I used to be absolutely unintelligable (just read some of my posts from past years). I've improved my staking plan overall significantly this season but I've still had a few lapses in judgement. It still needs improvement and it's been the biggest reason why I'm going to finish the spring slightly in the red on straight wagers. This is something I'll be planning to re-evaluate heading into summer. 

I'll be doing my normal mid-season evaluation post sometime this week or next week but this was not a great spring for me and it's normally when I do quite well. Considering that my overall read on the eastern leagues was much more accurate than last year and I just blew it away on stupid shit is a bit frustrating but hey, you live, you learn. I'm just a guy that's trying to get better at this and there's still clearly a lot of work to be done.



Moving on to the actual series... 


It was significantly closer than the 3-0 final result indicates. These were close, high level games from both sides. I thought FPX did a lot of things well but JDG seemed to come out on top in almost every situation similar to how FPX beat EDG. Yagao picking Leblanc INTO Doinb's Ryze in game three was just the biggest display of confidence I've seen in awhile. That took balls and you know what? He made it work even though it wasn't looking good for awhile. 


By no means was this perfect from either side but it sure as hell was a fun series to watch. We even got to see an LCK impression in the first game. To me, this was the real final. I had these two teams #1 and #2 before the season started but with how good TOP have looked who knows, perhaps we have a barn burner on our hands.  




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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)



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LPL (China)


Futures Positions (post in link and on sidebar):


JDG to win Spring: 1.375 units to win 20.875 units

FunPlus to win Spring: 2.125 units to win 5.3125 units
eStar to win Spring: 0.1 units to win 25.0 units




Playoffs - Finals

TOP eSports +113 (+1.5 @ +1.5 @ -222, +2.5 @ -588)
vs
JD Gaming -150 (-1.5 @ +144, -2.5 @ +307)


Lineups:

TOP: 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, QiuQiu
JDG: Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, Loken, LvMao


Trends:
JDG are 10-3 as favorites, 8-5 ATS
JDG are 5-0, 4-1 ATS in their past five appearances as underdogs (including playoffs)
Zoom has not lost a game since returning. JDG are a perfect 15-0 in games with him in the lineup.

TOP are 4-1 as underdogs, 4-1 ATS
TOP have won 2-0 in three of their past four appearances as underdogs 
(vs FPX, eStar, JDG)

TOP won the first meeting between these teams back on March 25th 2-0.


I did a roundtable discussion style post on this final with Josh Roberts and John George over at The Action Network that I'd encourage you to check out.

It's really strange to me that QiuQiu is getting the start. He's been a better player than Yuyanjia overall but to potentially disrupt the chemistry that JackeyLove has built with him during this streak is risky. I don't necessarily think this is automatically a bad thing it's just odd. My guess is that it has something to do with champion pool going up against Loken/LvMao.

So obviously I have futures on JDG for this matchup. I stand to make a whopping 20.875 units on a JDG victory in this spot. I hedge my T1 positions last week and punted it all away on props for the series. I do think that was a bit unlucky but I'll be staying away from the sides in this match but what I'm going to do is take the under kill totals in the first three maps because I think regardless of the winner that we'll get under 26.5. The numbers project this total higher than that (27-28 range) but it's pretty skewed by recent series, particularly the final few weeks of the regular season. I'm also going to be on the JDG first blood props because they've been one of the better first blood squads in the league and we're getting an advantagous number relative to the implied odds+low correlation.

I'm doing a partial hedge that leans heavily toward JDG basically to cover my prop wagers + 1.375 unit futures investment. 

Hedge vs JDG futures + props for this match

MONEYLINE HEDGE: TOP +133 (5.4 units)

Since I feel rather strongly that JDG win this I'm doing a partial hedge that leans heavily toward JDG basically to cover my prop wagers + 1.375 unit futures investment. It's a better alternative to a complete blowout. While it's possible we hit these unders and JDG first blood even in a TOP win, the likelihood is that if TOP win this series these probably wont. With this position we'll end up with the following:
Worst Case scenario: IF TOP win and we miss every single wager we NET: 0
Medium Worst Case scenario: IF TOP win and we hit some of these wagers NET: whatever we win on wagers
Medium Case Scenario: IF JDG win and we miss all of these wagers NET: +15.09 units
Best Case Scenario: If JDG win and we hit all of these wagers NET: +19.975 units


Map 1:
Prop: JDG first blood @ -127 (0.635  units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -130 (1.3 units)

Map 2:
Prop: JDG first blood @ -127 (0.635  units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -130 (1.3 units)

Map 3:
Prop: JDG first blood @ -127 (0.635 units)
Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -128 (1.28 units)

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Other Leagues

I have some Isurus +200 to win the LLA this season that I'm going to just let ride for this series since they managed to 3-1 decisively even after punting a lead in game one in their last match. They're running hot and they should be the best team in LLA even if their regular season record didn't show it.


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Parlays:

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