These are what I believe the line should be not what I think the books will put it at. I will write this down before looking at the lines the books set for the day as a gauge of whether or not my expectations are in or out of line on the game. I typically weigh my own expectations a lot more because unlike in traditional sports I don't think the books know what they're doing or they just let an algorithm set their lines.
MVP @ Jin Air -122 (55%)
KT Rolster -233 (70%) @ KSV eSports
Misfits -150 (60%) @ Giants
Splyce -122 (55%) @ H2K
Vitality -150 @ ROCCAT
Unicorns of Love @ Fnatic -233 (70%)
Schalke 04 @ G2 eSports -233 (70%)
Clutch Gaming @ Echo Fox -150 (60%)
FlyQuest @ Counter Logic Gaming -122 (55%)
OpTic Gaming @ Cloud 9 -233 (70%)
Team Solo Mid -122(55%) @ Team Liquid
100 Thieves -150 (60%) @ Golden Guardians
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LCK March 10th Schedule:
MVP (+110, +1.5 @ -250, M1 +100, M2 +101, M3 +101)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Jin Air (-152, -1.5 @ +180, M1 -137, M2 -137, M3 -137)
KT Rolster (-200, -1.5 @ +165, M1 -159, M2 -154, M3 -149)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 18.5)
KSV eSports (+155, +1.5 @ -217, M1 +122, M2 +118, M3 +111)
PICK OF THE WEEK:
Moneyline: KT Rolster -200 (5 units)
Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +165 (3 units)
Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +175 (2 units) (added)
Prop: KT First Blood Maps 1 + 2 @ -116 (0.5 units each)
Prop: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 35:00 (1 unit each)
I guess this is my Pick of the Week? I've found myself slamming this game. Anyway, KT Rolster have been absolutely rolling this season with their only match losses coming to Afreeca, Kingzone, and ROX which are the other teams in the Top 4 in the LCK. They've been absolutely surgical and this patch is incredible for them. KSV on the other hand have dropped six of their last eight series and their only wins are against Kongdoo and BBQ, the bottom two teams in the LCK. Earlier this week KSV played BBQ and to me BBQ should have won game one with a huge lead and didn't but could have won game two as well with better execution. KSV are stuck in the past and they aren't changing the way they play the game to fit the times we're in. They look lazy, sloppy, underpracticed, and it appears their coaching staff have a really bizarre read on the metagame. Quite frankly this team looks like they're in full hangover mode. KT on the other hand could tie Kingzone's win total with a win here and if, by some miracle, Kingzone loses they'd all the sudden be in a match series tie (not games) with Kingzone for the coveted first seed in the LCK playoff gauntlet.
- Lethargy gets you killed against KT Rolster and KSV are perhaps the most lethargic team in the LCK. Stylistically KT is an absolute nightmare for KSV.
- Individually KT Rolster have better players at every position. The exception could be mid but Crown hasn't even been good this season AT ALL so I think whether UCal or Pawn starts they have the edge.
- KSV don't win games unless their superior individual talent wins games in the lane phase and KT Rolster are perhaps one of two teams on the planet that have better individual players. They haven't been a synergistic or strategic team at all and if they don't get leads they honestly just sorta roll over and die.
- KSV haven't beaten a "good" team since their Week One win against Kingzone two months ago.
- KSV rarely even take a single game off a "good" team with their only game wins being against Afreeca in Week Two, and ROX the last match before the break in Week Four.
- This team even fails the eye test.
Frustrating game two sloppy throw early gave Cuvee a borderline insurmountable lead and KT still almost won this game. Bummer just one messed up play and it led to a game three loss... KSV remains my kryptonite... I was able to hedge a tiny amount of this back but still a huge 7 unit loss.
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Moneyline: Jin Air -152 (3 units)
Handicapped: Jin Air -1.5 maps @ +180 (1 unit)
Jin Air have had a rough couple of weeks since their strong showing taking a game off KT Rolster and sweeping Afreeca coming out of the break but they got themselves right with the Kongdoo Monster treatment and took a game off SKT as well. While MVP have looked significantly improved recently I think at least some of their wins have been pretty shallow. They 2-0'd ROX but it was honestly more on ROX not pushing advantages than it was MVP proactively winning those games and their other wins are against what I'd call weak teams (BBQ and a lethargic KSV, as well as SKT during their slump/roster shuffle). These two teams both have a remote chance at playoffs and are currently tied but I think Jin Air is the superior roster all around. Grace has been excellent this season and Teddy needs no justification. They're willing to play uptempo and have shown the ability to do so against better teams than MVP. I think the "MVP look better!" hype is deserved but Jin Air are better than they've been playing and with side choice as well I expect a 2-0 in what I'd call this teams Super Bowl for the season. If they aren't going to make playoffs they'll at least want to fight for 6/7 against KSV and MVP.
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LPL March 10th Schedule:
Team WE (-400, -1.5 @ -159, M1 -333, M2 -333, M3 -333)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 19.5)
LGD Gaming (+275, +1.5 @ +116, M1 +162, M2 +162, M3 +162)
JD Gaming (-286, -1.5 @ -111, M1 -227, M2 -227, M3 -227)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 21.5)
OMG (+205, +1.5 @ -122, M1 +162, M2 +162, M3 +162)
Handicapped: LGD Gaming +1.5 maps @ +116 (2 units)
I've said it a few times that this LGD team is likely better than their record having their good games against the good teams and their hiccups happen to have been against middle and bottom tier teams. I think this roster has enough upside to make a second half run. I don't think they make the playoffs or anything but they're certainly better than 3-7. Team WE have been on a bit of a run winning three matches in a row but they've dropped games to TopSports and FunPlus this season and those teams are similar if not worse than LGD are so I like this value.
- LGD haven't played in a week so they've had plenty of time to prepare for this match
- LGD have a game of film this week from WE's match against Suning.
- LGD are better than their record
- WE have dropped games to bottom of the table teams
- WE's slow and steady playstyle isn't really a great fit for this patch and LGD play the same style so WE are playing into LGD's strength anyway.
- LGD have side selection which has had a bigger impact on this patch.
I like the line value here for a couple units. I sort of like LGD to win outright actually but I'm not going to lay any units on that.
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Handicapped: JD Gaming -1.5 maps @ -111 (2 units)
With Vici Gaming looking much better with Swift now fully incorporated and their adjustment to playing a faster playstyle I think OMG actually takes over the title of "Worst Team in the LPL." Man if you said I'd be saying that a couple years ago I'd call you crazy. OMG were perennial Worlds Top 8 caliber. OMG have the "home field" advantage here but I think JD Gaming are being undervalued because they've lost five matches in a row against an absolutely brutal schedule of Snake, EDG, WE, a surging FPP, and Rogue Warriors. I like this as a "get right" game for them and OMG are just what the doctor ordered!
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European LCS March 10th Schedule:
Team Vitality -169 @ ROCCAT +131
Splyce -204 @ H2K +147
Misfits -182 @ Giants +142
Unicorns of Love +186 @ Fnatic -244
Schalke 04 +142 @ G2 eSports -196
(UPDATE: I've added 0.5 units on the UOL ML @ +186 because Bwipo is getting the start in top lane for Fnatic. It will be his first start and while he's a good player I think this is sort of a weird move for Fnatic who could still lose their first place spot despite securing a playoff birth yesterday. UOL absolutely need this game. I don't normally bet against new players in their first game because they tend to overperform in first game and underperform elsewhere but I think the way UOL plays is so weird that it could throw him off.)
I've been having a lot of trouble getting a read on EU this week and last week so I'm keeping wagers light today. Tail at your own risk.
Moneyline: ROCCAT +131 (1 unit)
This is honestly just a double regression pick. I think ROCCAT are a better team than they've been the past few weeks and Vitality are not as good as they looked against UoL yesterday. ROCCAT also have side selection which has shown to be a big factor on this patch. Light wager as I've been doing in EU the past two weeks but I like putting a chip on ROCCAT here to keep things interesting.
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Moneyline: H2K +147 (1 unit)
I'm basically calling Splyce out on their inconsistency in closing games early without Galio because I'm confident H2K aren't going to let them have it. H2K have shown a willingness to play scaling when they feel outdrafted but they've also won games playing uptempo since the Selfie/Shook additions. Side choice could let them do either and set them up for a better draft which they've been much improved at. Splyce have looked really good the past two weeks, as have H2K but I think H2K has gotten to see all of Splyce's tricks now. Without Galio, Splyce are pidgeonholed into late game scaling which is seemingly what H2K want to do. Both of these teams are due for a bit of regression compared to recent performance and while I think Splyce is definitely the better team I think H2K are a stylistic challenge, surprisingly, now that Splyce is sort of "figured out."
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Moneyline: Misfits -182 (1 unit)
This one is a tough call because Giants have looked wretched the past couple weeks but Misfits have been soundly beaten by Splyce and H2K since their epic series against Fnatic but ultimately I think Misfits is the third best team in EU and Giants are somewhere in the middle of the pack. Sencux has been performing well and has really shown well on Anivia, a champion he could potentially earn some bans on. I think Misfits have a big enough advantage overall to overcome side choice and a weird patch in this case.
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Prop: UoL @ Fnatic UNDER 36:00 @ +100 (1 unit)
I don't like the expense of the moneyline for Fnatic enough to put one or two units on them but I do think they'll win this game. I also think if UoL are going to win this game it will be off of an early game snowball so I think regardless this game goes under.
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Moneyline: G2 eSports -196 (2 units)
G2 had a huge lead yesterday and just couldn't close against the double hyper carry comp of H2K. You could look at this and say "oh Schalke will just do the same thing and call G2 out to make them close" but I think this was more of an uncharacteristic botched lead for G2 who also want to keep pace with Fnatic and ahead of the cluster of middle tier teams in Europe. G2 are the stronger team because Schalke have been disappointingly bad, Pride inparticular seems to be too predictable and in a jungle reliant metagame like this one with Tracker's Knife gone the consequences for weak jungle play are amplified. G2 also have side choice so I like this as my only two unit EU play of the week.
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North American LCS March 10th Schedule:
Clutch Gaming +141 @ Echo Fox -196
FlyQuest +111 @ Counter Logic Gaming -152
OpTic Gaming +199 @ Cloud 9 -286
Team Solo Mid -116 @ Team Liquid -116
100 Thieves -175 @ Golden Guardians +127
Moneyline: Echo Fox -196 (1 unit)
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Moneyline: Counter Logic Gaming -152 (1 unit)
Prop: OpTic @ Cloud 9 UNDER 36:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
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Moneyline: Team Solo Mid -125 (1 unit)
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Prop: 100T @ GG UNDER 35:00 @ +100 (1 unit)
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Parlays:
Parlay (5 team): Gambit -417, RoX -270, JD -286, KT -200, Jin Air -152 (0.5 unit) LOSS
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Overrated / Underrated Teams Page Updated Weekly (Updated 3/5)!!
LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
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