So before diving a little deeper on the picks tomorrow I'd like to take a look at the LCK and what we're looking at from here on out. KSV won this morning to move themselves back into 4th but with the same match score as the ROX Tigers at 7-6. Unless the games themselves change my mind I'm looking ahead with the following things in mind:
- KSV: (Next 5: KT, JAG, SKT, ROX, KZ) They will either lose out or win against Jin Air or ROX and lose the rest putting them out of playoffs. ROS Record: 1-4, Final Record: 8-10
- ROX: (Next 5: AF, KZ, KT, KSV, JAG) They will more than likely defeat JAG and KSV and lose the rest. ROS: Record 2-3, Final Record: 9-9
- SKT: (Next 5: KT, BBQ, KSV, MVP, KM) The have just about the easiest possible remaining schedule and I could see them winning 4 of their next 5 or perhaps all 5. ROS Record: 4-1, Final Record: 10-8
- Kingzone, KT, and Afreeca are more or less locks for playoffs at this point. KSV ROX and SKT are the teams on the bubble for the 4 and 5 seeds.
I don't think this scenario is farfetched at all and it would have SKT and ROX in the 4th and 5th spots respectively. With this in mind we can move on to predictions and operate under these assumptions until we have reason otherwise.
LCK March 8th Schedule:
SK Telecom (+153, +1.5 @ -213, M1 +130, M2 +130, M3 +130)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 21.5)
KT Rolster (-213, -1.5 @ +159, M1 -172, M2 -172, M3 -172)
Afreeca Freecs (-222, -1.5 @ +129, M1 -182, M2 -182, M3 -182)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 20.5)
ROX Tigers (+159, +1.5 @ -175, M1 +132, M2 +132, M3 +132)
Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +159 (3 units)
(UPDATE: This line has moved to -196/+150, any further movement and I might jump on a KT moneyline as well, stay tuned.)
TELECOM WAR DAY!! The best times of each season! A rivalry about as old as esports themselves. The first time these two teams faced it was two quick victories, one each, followed by a hard fought game three win by KT. This was around the start of SKT's mid season decline so it may be surprising to you that I'm going with KT Rolster for the 2-0 but I have my reasons.
- With Patch 8.4, a lot of teams have begun to favor red side for counterpick which has become more potent with less jungle vision to track enemy jungle movement. Score is a veteran, world class jungler that has played in lower vision metagames before with great success. Blossom is an unknown quantity.
- Untara has struggled with elite, world class carry top laners throughout his career. In the first series Smeb stomped all over him and the other day against Khan he got destroyed, albeit in a counter matchup Trundle vs Jayce. Untara has always been able to play carries into tanks, tanks into tanks, but simply can't find success playing into any type of GREAT carry player. Combined with side selection I think KT can find an advantagous matchup for Smeb. (NOTE: If Thal starts I feel similarly but he's a less known quantity)
- KT hasn't had a game since last Thursday giving them ample time to prepare on the new patch, despite not playing on it. SKT had to play on Tuesday against Kingzone. (the counter argument here would be SKT punted the match against KZ and had all their attention on this match but I don't buy it)
KT have stronger players in the top and jungle and are even in the bot lane. Mid lane however is a bit of a question. Historically Pawn has performed decently against Faker but KT might roll with super prospect UCal who had a great showing against Kongdoo Monster. Pawn has been struggling this season but I think with him in the lineup and the advantage in the top half of the map, KT have a sizeable enough advantage to sweep this. It's a bit of blind faith since we haven't seen KT play on this patch but with a week to prepare as well as a match of SKT film from their series against Kingzone on Tuesday morning, side advantage for counterpick to have a strong chance at taking game one from a top lane counterpick, and superior overall talent, I feel pretty good about a KT sweep here.
This is coming from an SKT fan as well. Truth is I still feel confident that SKT makes playoffs based on the scenarios I played out at the beginning of this blog post. They'll more than likely win their next four series putting them at 10-8 and 4th place, or if they lose one, 9-9 and a tie give or take, with ROX Tigers or KSV (less likely).
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Handicapped: Afreeca Freecs -1.5 maps @ +129 (2 units)
ROX actually had full control of game one but over extended protecting the Banner+Baron Cannon minion twice into easy engages and after two botched sieges Tristana + Corki from Pilot and Ian were just too big and outscaled the ROX comp. Game two looked more or less over after some really lucky MVP escapes from level six ganks. MVP was up 9-2, with their first baron buff took the entire mid lane of towers and inhibitor but then punted back, like bad/mediocre teams do. ROX fought back in this game but Olaf falls off really hard so it wasn't really going to happen the longer this game went.
So what do I extrapolate from the Tigers' embarassing loss to MVP? Ehh, perhaps not that embarassing. Maybe game two was. MVP has looked much better as of late and the combination of that, a new patch, and perhaps ROX feeling themselves a bit too much could add up to an upset that looks worse on paper than it actually is. This is still a good team and while they may take their lumps adjusting to this patch, they seemed to have the right idea already and just got a little sloppy.
Afreeca have been using bench strategy similar to the one used by SK Telecom on their World Championship run in Season 6 with "blind players" and "information players." SKT used Easyhoon/Faker and in the jungle Bengi and Blank. Mid lane would play for the draft the team wanted that day and one jungler would start using an optimal blind strategy or a researched/metricss strategy while the other jungle would sit with the coach and watch game one to see what the other teams jungler would do. That or they're just trying to get the bench players some reps with the first team. Spirit and Kramer still appear to be the first team, coming in in game threes to finish if the subs drop one. Mowgli and Aiming have looked really good but similar to a lot of bench players will have lapses in judgement. I'm intrigued to see which direction Afreeca choose to go in this match. With the Patch 8.4 changes to vision I think the idea of having a jungler sit and watch especially because you have a lot less information in game than you might now so it might be harder to maintain perspective from game one to two.
I'm betting this as if Spirit and Kramer are getting the start and we'll see no substitutions unles necessary from a horrible game. This match is really important to Afreeca. They could more or less clinch a playoff berth with a win here and another against Kongdoo on Sunday and with only one match next week followed up by a Week 9 of BBQ and KT Rolster, I think they'll want to be in as good a position as possible to stay in control of their destiny (which I think is 3rd seed).
I'm going with the handicap on Afreeca and as if their starters Spirit and Kramer are in for this important match and here's why:
- Similar to our first series, Afreeca have a game of ROX film from this patch to review and that's valuable information especially on a drastically different patch like this one.
- Afreeca, just like KT, haven't played since last Thursday so they've had ample time to prepare for this match AS WELL as the film to review on ROX.
- Afreeca have looked worse than they are in recent games due to this roster shuffling they've been doing and they've run into a a desparate team in SKT as well as had a flukey loss coming out of the bye against Jin Air. This is a really good team. They took a game off Kingzone as well.
- They have a stronger overall roster.
You could look at ROX coming off that loss to MVP two ways, either they tilt because it was MVP or they're extra motivated now that they had that loss. The lack of side choice makes me want to possibly split this into a ML + light handicap but I'm going to stick with my gut here and say Afreeca roll one game and win another close. This is no slight against ROX either I just think it's a really bad spot for them with an Afreeca team hungry to clinch their 3rd seed as soon as possible and with no film to review against them to know what they're up to on this patch.
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LMS March 8th Schedule:
J Team (-357, -1.5 @ +104, M1 -263, M2 -263, M3 -263)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 22.5)
Mad Team (+240, +1.5 @ -141, M1 +185, M2 +185, M3 +185)
AHQ eSports (-345, -1.5 @ -104, M1 -263, M2 -263, M3 -263)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 22.5)
Hong Kong Attitude (+233, +1.5 @ -130, M1 +185, M2 +185, M3 +185)
Handicapped: J Team -1.5 maps @ +104 (1 units)
So Mad Team are like an LPL team. They're aggressive, they fight a lot and if they don't snowball games off their 70%+ first blood rate they usually lose. The problem is, even when they get first blood, they often lose. J Team had a bit of a scare against last place HKA last match but I think they won't make the same mistakes in this one. Mad Team did just play a competitive 0-2 against G-Rex that brough a game two to 45 minutes but they also had an absolutely incredible composition that countered G-Rex's and still couldn't get it done so take from that what you will. The top three teams in the LMS are usually a cut above the rest, and this season it appears it's just the Flash Wolves alone, an A Tier for G-Rex and maybe J Team, and then the rest. I think J Team should be able to make the adjustments to take this one down 2-0 even if one game ends up close. If you like the snowballing team go the other direction on this.
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Handicapped: AHQ eSports -1.5 maps @ -104 (1 units)
AHQ seem to have found their form taking back to back sweeps against G-Rex and Team Afro. I don't think this is a worlds caliber team this year but we could see them join G-Rex and J Team in the "A Tier" of LMS with a strong finish. Hong Kong Attitude, while "surging" recently, is still the worst team in the LMS and unless you're buying that they've finally figured things out, this team is more likely to start losing more than winning more if you ask me.
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LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
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