LPL March 6th Schedule:
Vici Gaming (+407, +1.5 @ +163, M1 +313, M2 +313, M3
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Rogue Warriors (-667, -1.5 @ -227, M1 -500, M2 -500, M3 -500)
Suning Gaming (+148, +1.5 @ -238, M1 +126, M2 +122, M3 +113)
@ (Over/Under ???, Total Kills 20.5)
Team WE (-200, -1.5 @ +170, M1 -172, M2 -167, M3 -154)
Moneyline: Suning Gaming +148 (2 units)
To me these team are fairly evenly matched and frankly Suning has performed better over the course of the season. You could think, like I did the other day, that this WE lineup should start to turn it around eventually or you can look at what's in front of you, a good line value underdog. I'd wager more but this seems like a coinflip to me.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Handicapped: Rogue Warriors -1.5 @ -227 (2 units)
Vici look much improved. With Swift in the lineup they aren't shying away from early game aggression and proactive moves but I think the cat is out of the bag on this one and RW will see it coming. This team has been excellent all season and you could make an argument that they're the second best team in China at the moment.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LCK March 6th Schedule:
SK Telecom (+175, +1.5 @ -172, M1 +137, M2 +137, M3 +137)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Kingzone DragonX (-250, -1.5 @ +125, M1 -189, M2 -189, M3 -189)
ROX Tigers (-250, -1.5 @ +135, M1 -189, M2 -189, M3 -189)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
MVP (+181, +1.5 @ -185, M1 +137, M2 +137, M3 +137)
Handicapped: Kingzone DragonX -1.5 maps @ +125 (2 units)
Let's break down what I've learned about Patch 8.4 so far and then we'll apply it to this game.
- 2 or 2.5 core compositions seems to be the rage with at least 2 potential Banner users. (typically tanks in top and jungle or support and jungle)
- Teams that get the first baron have won almost every single game. It seems the tempo loss is irrecoverable.
- Carry top laners seem to be few and far between in most regions and have not had a lot of success. In games that they've won they've snowballed the game so hard that they don't need the BoC (Banner of Command) to win.
- Unless a game ends on the first baron take it's not going to until a second baron is taken in almost every situation so games will either be very short or very long.
To me there are a few things working in SKT's favor in this matchup. Khan may have a bit less success than he usually does on carries because of the increased focus on BoC and historically his only weakness has been his tank play. SKT are significantly more experienced playing 2-core compositions both over history and this season with this lineup, it's more or less been what they've done since settling on this iteration. Kingzone are going to be limited to either Khan or Peanut playing a tank.
With these said I'm going to go with Kingzone for the 2-0 and here's why:
- Khan is a different level of player than more or less anybody right now and even in tank metagames in the past has had no problem whatsoever playing his carries into it. Side selection for counterpicks if they want it, I'm trusting Khan to deliver on the goods. If he doesn't play Rascal is more than capable of playing tanks but this is a definite downgrade.
- SK Telecom have shown a lot of aggression and willingness to skirmish recently but it haven't always been clean and executed well. Blossom has made some boneheaded errors and while I love his "back on the horse" attitude you simply can't make that many mistakes against this Kingzone team.
- Massive advantage in the jungle especially with vision now limited. Peanut, and to a lesser extend Cuzz, absolutely thrive in this solo queue, "battle ward" aggressive jungle style. It's how Peanut achieve his initial fame. He had the lowest warding statistics on a team that was absolutely dominating because he'd have the money to spend on combat stats and would often snowball games in the first 5-10 minutes off of 1v1 jungle outplays off of blind reads. (I'm considering the fact that Blossom plays this way from solo queue but I'm just saying Peanut has made a career out of it)
- Kingzone get side selection
- Kingzone don't have another match until Sunday while SK Telecom just played a match yesterday and last Thursday and have the match against KT Rolster on Thursday.
- Kingzone had MVP and Kongdoo last week which perhaps could have allowed them to focus more on this matchup than those and they still stomped.
For as competitive as this SKT team now is, and I'm fairly confident in saying they'll make playoffs in 5th place now, this Kingzone team is just too much to handle. SKT's new style is to force fights and skirmish all the time and Kingzone are simply going to outclass any team in the world at that style right now with their individual talent and penchant for that style. The removal of Tracker's Knife is also a huge buff to Peanut and his skillset. I think SKT is better than they were but Kingzone can move one step closer to a 1st seed with a win here. One of these games might be close but I'm betting on Kingzone to get ahead and stay ahead in this match.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Handicapped: ROX Tigers -1.5 maps @ +135 (2 units)
MVP seem to only be able to win when Ian gets Taliyah, ADD gets his Sion or a weird counter like Swain, AND the other team messes up badly. KSV did all of these things. This is the kind of patch that should be good for MVP and they've been showing teams that they're not going down without a fight but they've also only showed the ability to win when the other team makes massive mistakes. ROX could move 1-2 series ahead of SKT and to within a half game of Afreeca with a win here and that matchup later in the week. I think this young, hungry ROX team isn't going to make the same mistakes a lot of these teams with lazy veterans (like KSV) make against the bottom tier teams and they'll take care of business. This ROX team is just good. Lava looks like a new name to consider in the worldwide mid lane elites and Ian just continues to struggle on anything that requires him to play against the other mid lane. MVP's win against KSV may seem good but the truth is that KSV is significantly worse than we all thought and even with that in mind, made a ton of mistakes in order for MVP to take the win in the first two games. ROX is a stronger team than KSV and I don't think they'll get lazy.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Overrated / Underrated Teams Page Updated Weekly (Updated 3/5)!!
LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
No comments:
Post a Comment