Afreeca Freecs (-714, -1.5 @ -169, M1 -400, M2 -455, M3 -278)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 16.5)
MVP (+437, +1.5 @ +130, M1 +275, M2 +309, M3 +203)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 16.5)
MVP (+437, +1.5 @ +130, M1 +275, M2 +309, M3 +203)
KT Rolster (-357, -1.5 @ -103, M1 -263, M2 -256, M3 -222)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 17.5)
BBQ Olivers (+259, +1.5 @ -127, M1 +194, M2 +188, M3 +168)
Afreeca and KT Rolster are both battling for the #2 seed.
- Afreeca: 11-4, matches remaining against MVP, BBQ, and KT
- KT Rolster: 10-5, matches remaining against BBQ, MVP, and Afreeca
If both teams were to 2-0 BBQ and MVP like I expect then Afreeca have both the better game win% and won the first matchup against KT so even with a loss in the final game of the Spring season Afreeca would get the #2 seed but they have to take care of business first. Truthfully, both of these teams need the wins because KSV seems to be heating up only trails them by a single match win. All of this basically means these teams aren't taking these games off and they'll be up for them since there is a lot to play for still. The question is whether or not we think BBQ or MVP can upset.
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Handicapped: Afreeca Freecs -1.5 @ maps -169 (3 units)
Prop: Maps 1 and 2 OVER 16.5 kills @ -116 (0.5 unit)
Prop: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 36:00 @ -122 (1 unit)
BBQ are the bracket destroyers of the LCK but I'm not going to let fear drive this one. Afreeca should crush this match even with MVP looking much better of late. Front runner for Individual MVP this season right now is Kuro and he gets a juicy, all-he-can eat buffet against Ian from MVP. The counter argument here would be that MVP have side choice and technically could still make playoffs but I think Afreeca are just too damn good and need this match, and perhaps as importantly, the 2-0 to potentially lock up their #2 seed before playing KT Rolster in the last match of the season next week.
Prop: Maps 1 and 2 OVER 16.5 kills @ -116 (0.5 unit)
Prop: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 36:00 @ -122 (1 unit)
BBQ are the bracket destroyers of the LCK but I'm not going to let fear drive this one. Afreeca should crush this match even with MVP looking much better of late. Front runner for Individual MVP this season right now is Kuro and he gets a juicy, all-he-can eat buffet against Ian from MVP. The counter argument here would be that MVP have side choice and technically could still make playoffs but I think Afreeca are just too damn good and need this match, and perhaps as importantly, the 2-0 to potentially lock up their #2 seed before playing KT Rolster in the last match of the season next week.
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Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ -123 (3 units)
Prop: Maps 1 and 2 OVER 16.5 kills @ -116 (0.5 unit)
Prop: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 37:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
For a lot of the same reasons as above I like the sweep by KT Rolster as well. If anything they need this even more with KSV suddenly showing signs of life and breathing down their necks. BBQ have been the bracket busters of the LCK but I'm not seeing it here. I think the -123 is a result of KT losing their last two but those were against Kingzone and KSV. Before that they absolutely roflstomped SKT and Kongdoo. I expect them to take care of business against this terrible and inconsistent BBQ squad. The counter argument would be that BBQ are fighting to avoid relegation and could tie for the 8th spot with Jin Air but to me the 9th place team is pretty safe from relegation because they wouldn't have to face Griffin. Regardless I doubt they think that way so I do expect BBQ to be up for this game, just not up to the level of KT.
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LPL March 14th Schedule:
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Turkish Champions League Schedule March 17th:
YouthCrew -227 @ HWA Gaming +154
BAU SuperMassive -556 @ Dark Passage +315
Team AURORA -667 @ Galakticos +350
Royal Bandits -175 @ 1907 Fenerbahce +120
Prop: YC @ HWA UNDER 33:00 @ -109 (1 unit)
Prop: SM @ DP UNDER 33:00 @ -109 (1 unit)
Prop: AUR @ GALAK UNDER 33:00 @ -109 (2 units)
Prop: Royal @ 1907 UNDER 33:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
I've been destroying it on almost only props in the TCL. Under against Galakticos has been nails and really under in general in the TCL. Dark Passage tends to play loinger games so that could go over but SuperMassive trounced last time.
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European LCS March 17th Schedule:
Book is having technical difficulties so no wagers on EU or NA today for me. I like ROCCAT, G2, Clutch, for about 2 units each and Liquid for 1-2 units.
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North American LCS March 17th Schedule:
(picks in the morning)
LPL March 14th Schedule:
Invictus Gaming (-357, -1.5 @ -109, M1 -263, M2 -286, M3 -192)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 22.5)
Team WE (+256, +1.5 @ -119, M1 +194, M2 +207, M3 +147)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 22.5)
Team WE (+256, +1.5 @ -119, M1 +194, M2 +207, M3 +147)
JD Gaming (-123, -1.5 @ +222, M1 -123, M2 -125, M3 -114)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 20.5)
BiliBili Gaming (-103, +1.5 @ -303, M1 -104, M2 -104, M3 -114)
EDward Gaming (-667, -1.5 @ -169, M1 -400, M2 -455, M3 -263)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 20.5)
LGD Gaming (+425, +1.5 @ +130, M1 +275, M2 +309, M3 +194)
Handicapped: Invictus Gaming -1.5 maps @ -109 (3 units)
Invictus have been the closest thing League of Legends has to the Golden State Warriors this season absolutely stomping everybody. With only four game losses on the entire season and a single match loss all the way back in very first match they're the creme of the crop in the LPL and it hasn't been particularly close. Team WE on the other hand have a roster full of previous World Championship experience and have been nothing but underperforming all season. This is a roster with enough star power to hang with the best teams in the world merely six months ago but haven't been able to topple any of the stronger LPL teams yet this season. Five of their seven match wins have come against bottom five teams and while they played 1-2 series against a few of the stronger teams like RNG, BBG, and EDG they have only won series against JD and Suning who aren't even on the same level as the elite teams in the LPL. As it stands, WE will likely make the playoffs in the Western Conference but only because the bottom three teams out of seven in that conference are amongst the worst in the entire league and they've been taking care of business against them.
Unless you believe Invictus will get lazy there's no reason to believe this won't be a 2-0. I'm riding what has become the most surefire thing in League of Legends betting this season and taking Invictus to sweep for three units. I'll probably up this to four or five because -109 is an absolute steal against a Team WE team that isn't quite as good as it's record would show.
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Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming -103 (4 units)
Prop: Exact Score 2-1 BiliBili Gaming @ +263 (0.5 units)
Prop: Game 3 played YES @ +103 (0.5 units)
This should be a good match. JD are currently out of the playoff picture by a match to Suning Gaming who are 7-6 but the Eastern Conference is a bit stronger than the West. BiliBili hold the fourth seed in the West over a dreadful bottom three and are looking to climb into the #3 spot to avoid a date with Snake eSports. This moneyline should be reversed and perhaps upped. BBG have 2-0's over LGD, TopSports, FunPlus, OMG, and Vici as well as a 2-1 over Team WE but they've also taken games off of RNG and Rogue Warriors and played Invictus is a close 2-0 result last week. Their most recent match as a close, hard fought match against Suning Gaming, a team that measures similarly in strength to JD Gaming, that was a 2-0 but both games lasted more than 42 minutes which is an eternity in the LPL. The catch is that BBG played their substitute jungle and mid lane in game two of this series. BBG's primary way to win games is through their mid laner Athena and they tried a substitution against another Mid+Jungle dominant team in Suning Gaming where H4cker and Knight have been red hot of late. It was a weird move and I'm not sure they'll make the same mistake again. I LOVE BiliBili here for a number of reasons:
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 20.5)
BiliBili Gaming (-103, +1.5 @ -303, M1 -104, M2 -104, M3 -114)
EDward Gaming (-667, -1.5 @ -169, M1 -400, M2 -455, M3 -263)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 20.5)
LGD Gaming (+425, +1.5 @ +130, M1 +275, M2 +309, M3 +194)
Handicapped: Invictus Gaming -1.5 maps @ -109 (3 units)
Invictus have been the closest thing League of Legends has to the Golden State Warriors this season absolutely stomping everybody. With only four game losses on the entire season and a single match loss all the way back in very first match they're the creme of the crop in the LPL and it hasn't been particularly close. Team WE on the other hand have a roster full of previous World Championship experience and have been nothing but underperforming all season. This is a roster with enough star power to hang with the best teams in the world merely six months ago but haven't been able to topple any of the stronger LPL teams yet this season. Five of their seven match wins have come against bottom five teams and while they played 1-2 series against a few of the stronger teams like RNG, BBG, and EDG they have only won series against JD and Suning who aren't even on the same level as the elite teams in the LPL. As it stands, WE will likely make the playoffs in the Western Conference but only because the bottom three teams out of seven in that conference are amongst the worst in the entire league and they've been taking care of business against them.
Unless you believe Invictus will get lazy there's no reason to believe this won't be a 2-0. I'm riding what has become the most surefire thing in League of Legends betting this season and taking Invictus to sweep for three units. I'll probably up this to four or five because -109 is an absolute steal against a Team WE team that isn't quite as good as it's record would show.
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Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming -103 (4 units)
Prop: Exact Score 2-1 BiliBili Gaming @ +263 (0.5 units)
Prop: Game 3 played YES @ +103 (0.5 units)
This should be a good match. JD are currently out of the playoff picture by a match to Suning Gaming who are 7-6 but the Eastern Conference is a bit stronger than the West. BiliBili hold the fourth seed in the West over a dreadful bottom three and are looking to climb into the #3 spot to avoid a date with Snake eSports. This moneyline should be reversed and perhaps upped. BBG have 2-0's over LGD, TopSports, FunPlus, OMG, and Vici as well as a 2-1 over Team WE but they've also taken games off of RNG and Rogue Warriors and played Invictus is a close 2-0 result last week. Their most recent match as a close, hard fought match against Suning Gaming, a team that measures similarly in strength to JD Gaming, that was a 2-0 but both games lasted more than 42 minutes which is an eternity in the LPL. The catch is that BBG played their substitute jungle and mid lane in game two of this series. BBG's primary way to win games is through their mid laner Athena and they tried a substitution against another Mid+Jungle dominant team in Suning Gaming where H4cker and Knight have been red hot of late. It was a weird move and I'm not sure they'll make the same mistake again. I LOVE BiliBili here for a number of reasons:
- JD Gaming have a strong mid+jungle combination in Clid and Yagao but their main strength comes from ADC Loken and a lot of their team compositions are build around protecting him. This is a team that's played Galio mid lane 10 times. Their next most played mid lane? Malzahar at 4 picks.
- As discussed above, BBG have had much better performances even in their losses against stronger teams. JD on the other hand have been more or less smoked by every "good" team they've faced besides a 2-1 against Suning Gaming and a single game win over Snake. This team has lost 0-2 to Team WE, EDG, RW, and IG, have lost games to FunPlus and Vici.
- BiliBili have performed better against the Top Four/Five teams. A good performance against Invictus carries a lot of weight to me.
- BiliBili match up well against JD's strengths and AmazingJ should give them an edge over Zoom from JD.
- BiliBili have side selection.
- Line value seems off. I had this at BBG -150.
These teams have similar records and are in similar places within their conferences, not quite as good as the elite teams but clearly better than the bottom. To me the difference is that BBG have shown better in their losses against elite teams and have some higher impact wins. This line is putting a lot of weight on the record from the past two weeks. BBG have lost their last three matches but those have been against Suning, Invictus, and Rogue Warriors. Invictus are the best team in the LPL and Rogue Warriors you could argue are second or third. JD have won their last two series but they've been against the absolutely terrible OMG and a 2-1 against an improved but still terrible Vici Gaming. Wins over bad teams matter but I'd take a competitive series against elite teams to mean more and that's why I'm slamming this line for value.
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Handicapped: EDG -1.5 maps @ -169 (3 units)
EDG haven't been themselves this season but LGD's best player, all-time great and former world champ with Samsung White, Imp who is returning to Korea after years in China. His replacement Fdy has been serviceable in the eight games he's played but he's also only won two of them. For a team who has played for YEARS around their superstar ADC as more or less their only win condition this has to be seen as a downgrade. Now difference between the two is debateable but it's almost definitely a loss. Imp is a very unique player, one you can build around, Fdy I'm not so sure. EDG just came off of a brutal section of their schedule facing Suning, Rogue Warriors, Invictus, JD, and RNG only to lose in embarassing fashion to bottom dwellers TopSports 1-2. They'll be seeking to right the ship here. With LGD's loss and unlikeliness to make playoffs they'll be looking to get some reps with Fdy and look toward their future which means a lot of growing pains and perhaps some experiementing. EDG currently hold the #2 seed in the West but Team WE and BBG are approaching and coming off of difficult schedules themselves so EDG will have some work to do to maintain their lead. They haven't been the most consistent but I feel pretty good about a 2-0 here.
EDG haven't been themselves this season but LGD's best player, all-time great and former world champ with Samsung White, Imp who is returning to Korea after years in China. His replacement Fdy has been serviceable in the eight games he's played but he's also only won two of them. For a team who has played for YEARS around their superstar ADC as more or less their only win condition this has to be seen as a downgrade. Now difference between the two is debateable but it's almost definitely a loss. Imp is a very unique player, one you can build around, Fdy I'm not so sure. EDG just came off of a brutal section of their schedule facing Suning, Rogue Warriors, Invictus, JD, and RNG only to lose in embarassing fashion to bottom dwellers TopSports 1-2. They'll be seeking to right the ship here. With LGD's loss and unlikeliness to make playoffs they'll be looking to get some reps with Fdy and look toward their future which means a lot of growing pains and perhaps some experiementing. EDG currently hold the #2 seed in the West but Team WE and BBG are approaching and coming off of difficult schedules themselves so EDG will have some work to do to maintain their lead. They haven't been the most consistent but I feel pretty good about a 2-0 here.
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LCL (CIS Region) Playoffs Schedule March 17th:
RoX (-192, -1.5 @ +113, -2.5 @ +356)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 21.5, Total Maps Under 3.5 @ +203, Over 3.5 @ -313, Under 4.5 @ -294, Over 4.5 @ +189)
M19 (+131, -1.5 @ +263, +1.5 @ -164, +2.5 @ -667)
Moneyline: RoX -192 (pending)
Handicapped: RoX -1.5 maps @ +113 (1.5 units)
Handicapped: RoX -2.5 maps @ +356 (0.5 unit)
Prop: Exact Score RoX 3-1 @ +264 (0.25 unit)
A little playoff action for us in the LCL already! This is the #2 vs #3 matchup but this league is extremely top heavy with Gambit and RoX being significantly better than the rest of the field similar to the LMS. Gambit and RoX both finished the season 12-2 third place M19 was 8-6 and fourth place Team Just Alpha finished 7-7. Let's take a look at the tale of the tape shall we?
RoX (-192, -1.5 @ +113, -2.5 @ +356)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 21.5, Total Maps Under 3.5 @ +203, Over 3.5 @ -313, Under 4.5 @ -294, Over 4.5 @ +189)
M19 (+131, -1.5 @ +263, +1.5 @ -164, +2.5 @ -667)
Moneyline: RoX -192 (pending)
Handicapped: RoX -1.5 maps @ +113 (1.5 units)
Handicapped: RoX -2.5 maps @ +356 (0.5 unit)
Prop: Exact Score RoX 3-1 @ +264 (0.25 unit)
A little playoff action for us in the LCL already! This is the #2 vs #3 matchup but this league is extremely top heavy with Gambit and RoX being significantly better than the rest of the field similar to the LMS. Gambit and RoX both finished the season 12-2 third place M19 was 8-6 and fourth place Team Just Alpha finished 7-7. Let's take a look at the tale of the tape shall we?
- RoX: 1910 GPM, 2066 DPM, Gold Differential/min +235, GD @ 15 mins +15, First Blood 47%, First Tower 67%
- M19: 1781 GPM, 1761 DPM, GD/min +57, GD @ 15 mins -18, First Blood 79%, First Tower: 43%
So M19 have been getting first blood in 79% of their games and only get first tower in 43% of them. That's a huge problem. To me that's a warning sign of inconsistency and shows that they don't know how to run with an early lead and similarly to Vici in the LPL get first blood but don't really know what to do with it. A descrepency that big is a sign of a bad team. If you just look at the economy numbers it's clear that RoX are a stronger team and I have no idea why this isn't closer to a -300 or more moneyline. Those economy numbers compared to the #3 seed shows you just how big of a gap there is between RoX and Gambit and the rest of this league. I expect this to be a stomp and there's a chance I up this in the morning with more thought. The reasoning being that I think even if M19 get a fast start I don't trust them to do anything with it. The moneyline I'm going to wait and see how it moves and make a decision in the morning.
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Turkish Champions League Schedule March 17th:
YouthCrew -227 @ HWA Gaming +154
BAU SuperMassive -556 @ Dark Passage +315
Team AURORA -667 @ Galakticos +350
Royal Bandits -175 @ 1907 Fenerbahce +120
Prop: YC @ HWA UNDER 33:00 @ -109 (1 unit)
Prop: SM @ DP UNDER 33:00 @ -109 (1 unit)
Prop: AUR @ GALAK UNDER 33:00 @ -109 (2 units)
Prop: Royal @ 1907 UNDER 33:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
I've been destroying it on almost only props in the TCL. Under against Galakticos has been nails and really under in general in the TCL. Dark Passage tends to play loinger games so that could go over but SuperMassive trounced last time.
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European LCS March 17th Schedule:
Book is having technical difficulties so no wagers on EU or NA today for me. I like ROCCAT, G2, Clutch, for about 2 units each and Liquid for 1-2 units.
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North American LCS March 17th Schedule:
(picks in the morning)
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Overrated / Underrated Teams Page Updated Weekly (Updated 3/5)!!
LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
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