Monday, March 12, 2018

Betting: March 13th (LCK / LPL)

LCK March 13th Schedule:

Kingzone DragonX (-909, -1.5 @ -222, M1 -476, M3 -556, M3 -333)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 17.5)
ROX Tigers (+517, +1.5 @ +166, M1 +317, M2 +353, M3 +235)


KSV eSports (-250, -1.5 @ +123, M1 -204, M2 -196, M3 -169)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 17.5)
Jin Air (+189, +1.5 @ -161, M1 +153, M2 +147, M3 +129)


Handicapped: ROX Tigers +1.5 maps @ +166 (1 unit)

 Prop: Exact Score 2-1 Kingzone Win @ +275 (0.5 unit)

 Prop: Map 1 ROX Tigers WIN @ +317  (0.5 unit)

 Kingzone is the best team on the planet and while they've been more or less stomping teams thoroughly they have shown lapses here and there and with KT losing there's a chance they aren't 100% ruthless in this situation. I also think ROX are an A tier team and are capable of taking a game here. With a win they could tie KSV's win total and potentially eliminate any chances for SKT and Jin Air to sneak into their 5th place playoff spot. I don't think they'll win this series but I do think they'll be competitive. This is perhaps the biggest game in this half of this franchise's history. Kingzone is good enough to shut dreams down but I have hope that ROX can take a game, especially with side choice.

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Moneyline: Jin Air +189 (1 unit)

 Handicapped: Jin Air +1.5 maps @ -161 (2 units)

 Prop: Exact Score KSV 2-1  @ +228  (1 unit)

 Prop: Exact Score 1-2 JAG @ +371  (0.25 unit)

 My gut tells me Jin Air win this series 2-1 or perhaps even 2-0 because KSV are perhaps the most two-faced team in any region right now and decide to show up when it matters least (besides the other day...). I can't get a good read on this KSV team but I do know that they smell of disappointment. They would have lost 0-2 to KT had KT not handed game two on a silver platter with a botched four man dive and then we wouldn't be having this conversation. Jin Air have shown that they're still game to play and this is an absolute must win for them if they want to make playoffs. It's a long shot seeing as they don't entirely control their fate but they must win the remainder of their games for a chance. This just feels like KSV letting us down yet again and Jin Air playing spoiler yet again. That being said my brain tells me KSV will likely continue to be a thorn in my side this season so I'm instead going to play this as a 2-1 sloppy KSV win and just play a pseudo-hedge with my gut call. I won't do this too often but now that BO has these options I figured I'd explore a little. Can you tell this KSV team drives me mad?

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 LPL March 13th Schedule:

LGD Gaming (-185, -1.5 @ +161, M1 -169, M2 -159, M3 -147)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 21.5)
OMG (+142, +1.5 @ -213, M1 +129, M2 +122, M3 +113)


BiliBili Gaming (-169, -1.5 @ +171, M1 -161, M2 -152, M3 -135)


@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 20.5)
Suning Gaming (+131, +1.5 @ -227, M1 +124, M2 +117, M3 +104)



Handicapped: LGD Gaming -1.5 maps @ +161 (2 units)

I've been saying over and over that this LGD team is better than their record and perhaps more importantly in this scenario, OMG are just god awful. As a matter of fact I think OMG might be worse than Vici who has actually shown well the past two weeks. This OMG squad sucks and while LGD has been slightly maddening I feel like this could be the moment they make an upward turn with an easier schedule moving forward. OMG have also yet to win a game in their new stadium which should tell you something about the quality of this team. Even with a new "home field" they can't get even a single game win. Four of their single game wins were against a FunPlus Phoenix team that struggled the first few weeks and Vici before their addition of Swift and identity shift. Yes they've taken a game off of Snake and a game off of Edward but those were really flukey and during that 8.1-8.2 meta. This team will challenge for the worst team in the LPL and LGD need to start winning if they want to have a shot at playoffs.

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Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming -169  (3 units)

Handicapped: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +171  (0.5 units)

I really like Suning and actually think this seires will likely end up 2-1 BBG but I think the +1.5 odds are just a bit too expensive to trust when I know BBG also has the potential to 2-0 this. As much as I like Suning, BiliBili have been the better team this season. They've played Invictus (the best) and Rogue Warriors (2nd or 3rd best) the past two weeks and despite losing were quite competitive in the games which shows me that this is at least a playoff caliber team. They also have performed very well against middle of the table teams like Suning with 2-0 wins over LGD, FunPlus, and a 2-1 against Team WE. Suning have struggled against the good teams but have soundly defeated the weaker teams on the schedule. This to me is a classic case of Suning being the "best of the rest" and a maybe for a playoff spot while BBG is a definite playoff contender. I also think Athena, SkS, and AmazingJ can just overwhelm the Suning solo laners. Hacker and Knight have been excellent together and if you like the Suning side of this then those two nullifying Athena and SkS as well as having side choie is your counterargument but I think BBG are just slightly better here. BBG are also coming off of those two brutal opponents so they should be in top preparation and form right now to get back on the winning track.

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