Friday, March 30, 2018

Betting: March 31st (LCK / LPL / LMS / EU LCS / NA LCS)

LCK March 31st Schedule:

SK Telecom (-128, -1.5 @ +210, M1 -130, M2 -130, M3 -114)
@ (Over/Under  36:00, Total Kills 18.5)
KSV eSports (+101, +1.5 @ -286, M1 +100, M2 +101, M3 -114)
Moneyline: SK Telecom -123 (2 units)


Handicapped: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ +222 (1 unit) 

I was discussing this on Reddit last night and had the following to say when asked my thoughts on this match:

 "Honestly KSV has been my kryptonite all season so take it with a grain of salt. 

 Legitimately think most of KSVs wins were derived from catastrophic errors by other teams. Look at their "big" wins or wins against good teams. It was often poor execution by the better team and even then they could sometimes win. This KSV team should be so much better than they are but they just aren't. Their record is deceptive. SKT are also wildly inconsistent but they at least know who they are. 

 My brain says 3-2 KSV. Side selection matters but my gut says 3-0 SKT or some SKt win. SKt have embraced ther new identity and I think it's entirely within reason to think they just run this Ksv team over even if they should be worse. KSV have literally shown almost no ability to be proactive and it's frustrating as hell." 

 First of all it's funny because seemingly every single season I forget that the first round of the gauntlet is only a best of three. Second of all my thoughts haven't really changed. KSV have been seemingly incapable of creating their own opportunities and have instead relied on other teams mistakes but they rarely even capitalize on those. It's taken CATASTROPHIC mistakes for them to win matches. KSV should be better than they are but they aren't. So why only 3 total units on this game? Because I don't know if they're going to do what they did at Worlds and just show up looking like a different team. I also don't know which lineup SKT is going to run out there.

This is almost purely a gut call besides my observation that KSV is incapable of creating on their own. The new look SKT have been aggressive and willing to take chances so to me this series will either be a close KSV win or an SK Telecom blowout depending on which teams show up. Gut is telling me SKT absolutely run this team over and KSV are exposed for the frauds they are... then again this KSV team has stolen so much money from me that I'm definitely gunshy here. Tail at your own risk.



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LMS (Taiwan) March 31st Schedule:

Flash Wolves (-400, -1.5 @ -120, M1 -294, M2 -303, M3 -294)
@ (Over/Under  33:00, Total Kills 22.5)
J Team (+254, +1.5 @ -119, M1 +199, M2 +217, M3 +199)
Handicapped: Flash Wolves -1.5 maps @ -120  (2 units)

 For as whacked out as this line is (-400 favorite but even money on the handicaps?) I want to just abuse that +1.5 option but Flash Wolves are simply so much better than this entire league it's not even funny. This is a finals preview in the LMS but I'd have that finals at a 3-0 more than likely. End of season you never know though and I've missed on some LMS picks lately so I'm limiting this to two units. If I had to up one wager tomorrow it'd be this one.
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LPL March 31st Schedule:

 Invictus Gaming (-222, -1.5 @ +144, M1 -179, M2 -182, M3 -179)
@ (Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Rogue Warriors (+169, +1.5 @ -189, M1 +135, M2 +139, M3 +135)
EDward Gaming (-133, -1.5 @ +210, M1 -130, M2 -130, M3 -123)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Team WE (+105, +1.5 @ -286, M1 +100, M2 +101, M3 -104)
Royal Never Give Up (-588, -1.5 @ -139, M1 -333, M2 -370, M3 -333)
@ (Over/Under 32:00, Total Kills 21.5)
LGD Gaming (+392, +1.5 @ +107, M1 +235, M2 +257, M3 +235)
Handicapped: Invictus Gaming -1.5 maps @ +144  (1 unit)

 Rogue Warriors have been quite impressive this season and this could be billed as a juggernaut battle between first and second but I just think Invictus are in a tier of their own in the LPL. The moneyline isn't actually too bad for this game but since RW is pretty good I don't feel like wagering too heavily at -222 when I think there's a decent chance IG drop this series but I don't like the +1.5 odds either. I think the most likely scenario in this match is a 2-1 IG victory but I don't actually think the 2-0 is that far behind it so I'll drop a unit on the sweep. This is two excellent teams with nothing but rivalry to play for as both have locked their #1 and #2 seeds. In games like this I like to avoid going to heavy because you don't know which team will care and which won't. This is driven by rivalry alone and even then there's a chance both teams play this overly conservative or even careless so we'll keep the wager light.

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Moneyline: EDward Gaming -133  (2 units)

 On paper this should be a really great match. Both of these teams have struggled at time with weaker teams and other middle of the pack teams but have both been on a generally uphill climb after rough starts. The meta just fits EDG a bit better right now. Ray can play his carry tops like Camille and Swain or at least draw big ban pressure on them and EDG have been much better at playing uptempo than Team WE who play their trademark slow and methodical style. This feels like an EDG 2-1 to me but I'll just stick with the moneyline for now and probably live bet this tomorrow.


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Handicapped: Royal Never Give Up -1.5 maps @ -139 (3 units)

 I know LGD upset JD yesterday but the reason that happened is because JD refused to play uptempo for the first two games which is like avoiding LGD's biggest weakness and then WAY WAY overcorrected in Game 3. RNG isn't going to let that happen. This team is a good amount better than JD and I think they'll absolutely stomp this match. These are pretty great odds for a top four team against a bottom four team.


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EU LCS Playoffs March 31st Schedule:


Fnatic (-370, -1.5 @ -204)
@ (Over/Under  36:00, Total Kills 19.5)
Team Vitality (+257, +1.5 @ +155)



Moneyline: Fnatic -370  (10 units) 

Prop: Exact Score Fnatic 3-0 @ +143  (2 units)

 Prop: Exact Score Fnatic 3-1 @ +188   (1 unit)


We saw yesterday that the elite teams really outclass these flash in the pan squads in best of five series. G2 lost game one and then proceeded to just obliterate Splyce three games in a row. I expect and even less close series here even with Bwipo playing in place of veteran SoaZ. You could make the argument against Fnatic 3-0ing this because of "rookie nerves under the lights" in a big game but Bwipo has been excellent so far and this Fnatic team could quite honestly win this game even if he performs poorly. The rest of the map is so heavily in Fnatics favor that I would trust this to be a 3-1 even if Bwipo is "exposed." I'm so confident in Fnatic that I'm laying 10 units on the moneyline with a rookie starting in the top lane in a playoff match. They're that good and, as we all know, Team Vitality are vastly overrated and predictable. CHOO CHOO! LET'S GO!

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NA LCS Playoffs March 31st Schedule:


Echo Fox (-116, -1.5 @ +167)
@ (Over/Under  36:00, Total Kills 19.5)
Team Liquid (-109, +1.5 @ -222)

(Update: Line is now FOX +110 / TL -145)

Moneyline: Team Liquid -145  (3 units)

 Prop: Exact Liquid 3-2 @ +393 (1 unit)

 Prop: Exact Liquid 3-1 @ +306 (1 unit)

 Prop: Exact Echo Fox 3-2 @ +435  (0.5 unit)

 This line moved very heavily since it opened at TL -109 so I'm bumping this down a unit but I do feel fairly confident in Team Liquid here. I'm not trying to put too much weight on Echo Fox's weak finish to the season OR Team Liquid's excellent performance last week. Echo Fox didn't really have a lot to play for at the end of the season so it's possible they were just trying not to show anything heading into playoffs so I'm not going to underestimate this team but they've shown a lot of inconsistency. I also think if there is any team that isn't going to cave to Echo Fox's wildly aggressive lane and tempo play it's Team Liquid who play similarly. The real X-factor in this series is Huni. He's a player that can absolutely take over a game and he's one of the best in the world at it in any position. Huni is the only reason I'm not going a little heavier on Team Liquid in this series.

Overall I think Liquid have just been a better overall unit. Fenix hasn't performed well in big games in the past, Impact can play damage control against Huni, and Xmithie can do the same against Dardoch. Bot lane goes to TL although I think Altec and Adrian have been underrated this season. I think this is going to be a really great and explosive series. Both teams are excellent in the uptempo style, have great laners, and have plenty of aggression but I'm siding with Liquid who have side selection, a great read on the metagame, and look like a better overall unit.  I think Team Liquid 3-2 in the most likely and a TL 3-1 is the second most likely.

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