Friday, March 23, 2018

Betting: March 24th (LCK / LPL / EU LCS / NA LCS)

LCK March 24th Schedule:

Kingzone DragonX (-345, -1.5 @ -108, M1 -238, M2 -250, M3 -222)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 20.5)
KSV eSports (+244, +1.5 @ -125, M1 +176, M2 +187, M3 +168)



ROX Tigers (-164, -1.5 @ +179, M1 -147, M2 -152, M3 -141)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Jin Air (+127, +1.5 @ -238, M1 +113, M2 +116, M3 +109)


Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +108 (2 units) 

 I got in on this one at +108 looking ahead on Thursday but the line has since moved to -108. I said it heading into the KSV series the other day but they had a couple of victories handed to them by botched early games by other teams. KSV have struggled to create on their own even against middle tier teams. Kingzone could troll this or try to show a new pick or play Cuzz but I actually think that KSV's late season "run" was more other teams throwing and refusing to take care of Crown's Velkoz. They seem figured out and I think they'll be out in the first round of the playoffs. Part of me also wants this to be a sweep so SKT could potentially backdoor their way into a playoff spot.
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Moneyline: ROX Tigers -164 (6 units) (PICK OF THE MONTH)

 Handicapped: ROX Tigers -1.5 maps @ +197 (2 units)

The ROX Tigers are still fighting for the #4 seed and side selection for their first playoff series whether that be against KSV or SKT. They'll be up for this game and unlike a team of complaicent veterans this is a hungry, relatively young team that isn't going to clown around before playoffs. Meanwhile Jin Air have nothing to play for, not even job security except for maybe Grace. As a team their issues were more strategic and coaching issues than the players individually. The only thing Jin Air did wrong this season was play in the LCK. They'd likely stomp most other teams in most regions. I think ROX just need this a lot and take care of business. The moneyline is actually pretty good value now that some money has come in on Jin Air since Thursday when I put this bet in looking ahead.


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LPL March 24th Schedule:
Rogue Warriors (-1250, -1.5 @ -233, M1 -526, M2 -667, M3 -400)
@ (Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 21.5)
TopSports Gaming (+651, +1.5 @ +172, M1 +348, M2 +402, M3 +275)


BiliBili Gaming (+119, +1.5 @ -256, M1 +109. M2 +111, M3 +104)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 22.5)
Team WE (-152, -1.5 @ +190, M1 -141, M2 -145, M3 -135)

Suning Gaming (-526, -1.5 @ -154, M1 -313, M2 -345, M3 -278)
@ (Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 21.5)
LGD Gaming (+353, +1.5 @ +113, M1 +223, M2 +243, M3 +203)



Handicapped: Rogue Warriors -1.5 @ -233 (3 units)

 This is a lot of juice to pay but I think RW will keep rolling along dispatching awful teams like they have been all season. TopSports are one of, if not the worst team in the LPL and RW look like they might be the second best team in the region. Put it in the bank ladies and gents.

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Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming +119  (5 units)  (PICK OF THE WEEK)

 Prop: Exact BBG 2-0 @ +278 (0.25 unit)

 These two teams are pretty evenly matched but to me, this should be the other way around and BBG should be favored even without side selection. Team WE have looked so shaky this season. They've struggled against low and mid tier teams that are worse than BBG and BBG have shown great games against stronger teams than WE. 

  • BiliBili Notable Matches: 1-2 loss to RW, 0-2 loss to Suning (these were really long, close games), 2-1 win against JD. 1-2 loss to RNG (without Uzi), 2-1 win over Team WE. 0-2 to Invictus but the second game was extremely close.
  • Team WE Notable Matches: 1-2 loss to FunPlus (embarassing), 0-2 loss to Invictus (game two fairly close), 2-1 win over LGD (a bad team), 2-1 win over Suning, 2-1 over TopSports (bad team), 2-1 win to FunPlus (bad team), 1-2 vs RNG (with Uzi), 1-2 vs EDG
  • BBG: 1855 GPM, 2060 DPM
  • Team WE: 1842 GPM, 1806 DPM
So they each have good games against good teams but BBG have significantly fewer bad games. Team WE are just so streaky. They can look great but in other games they just roll over and die. I think BBG have a super strong mid+jungle combo in Athena and SkS that could run away with this game. Their bot lane can also match Mystic and whichever support WE decides to play. I perhaps overvalue it but BBG have done significantly more with fewer resources as well. To me this is a matter of line value for two close to even teams as well as BBG showing a bit more strategic versatility in being able to play strong, uptempo compositions well which is how teams beat Team WE. I also think there is a little public bias cooked in here. Team WE have more star names and fan familiarity from Worlds and domestic diehard fans from years ago. I absolutely love the BBG underdog pick. I'm perhaps a bit heavy handed but this has all the makings of a huge pick.


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Handicapped: Suning Gaming -1.5 maps @ -154 (2 units)

 This feels like it could be a spot for Suning to randomly punt a game to a rebuilding LGD team but they're in a close playoff race and need every win they can get including game wins. I like them for a couple units to take the 2-0.


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 Parlay: RW -1.5 @ -233, BBG +1.5 @ -256, Suning -1.5 @ -154  (1 unit at +228 total odds)

 Favorite heavy slates mean to collect value on parlays when it makes sense to. If you're feeling froggy switch to BBG moneyline instead of the +1.5.

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EU LCS March 24th Schedule:
Team Vitality (-185, -1.5 @ +106, -2.5 @ +336)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 19.5)
H2K (+143, +1.5 @ -137, +2.5 @ -500)
Moneyline: Team Vitality -185 (5 units)

 Handicapped: Team Vitality -2.5 maps @ +336 (0.5 unit)

 Prop: Exact Team Vitality 3-1 @ +247 (2 units)
So I initially looked at this and thought "man that should be a close, hard fought series that a surging H2K team might pull an upset in." After the Splyce series today and hearing the analysts say they also like H2K I started doing my homework and looking into this matchup and I just can't come up with a logical way for H2K to win this series. As a matter of fact I think it'll be a swift 3-1 or 3-0 for Vitality. Hear me out:

  • Team Vitality excel at uptempo, aggressive plays, the exact thing that H2K have shown an inability to do themselves so this gives Vitality a depth of strategy edge.
  • H2K have more or less only won games by stalling and hoping for opponents to make mistakes. To their credit they've gotten pretty good at this but this H2K lineup is now S6 SK Telecom. Significantly better teams than they have tried this strategy and stolen wins but it's never consistent unless you have elite players which brings me to my next point.
  • SmittyJ is a huge liability and Cabochard, while slightly overrated, is an excellent carry player that is going to demand a lot of draft attention in this series which is a massive edge for Vitality.
  • H2K's main strength is Selfie and Shook who do a good job buying time and controlling the map for Sheriff to carry late. Sheriff has been excellent late game. Their weakness is bottom lanes early presence and more critically, SmittyJ on the whole. 
  • Vitality's strengths are mid + jungle synergy and draft. Jiizuke and Gilius should outperform Selfie and Shook even if it's not by as much as people might think. Vitality's bot lane has been excellent at "cancelling out" the other bot lane by drafting to shove or "not lose." If you consider these points it all comes back to the massive advantage Vitality have in the top lane.
I absolutely love Vitality here and that should mean something coming from the self proclaimed conductor of the "Vitality is overrated" hype train all season. H2K had a nice run and seem to have figured out the proper alignment but I don't see them taking more than a game here. This is a stylistic and personnel matchup nightmare for them and Vitality also get side selection in 3/5 games. I think coach YamatoCannon is a bit overrated but he does draft very well and will almost definitely have a great plan for this series. H2K have been wining by playing very vanilla and stole a few best of ones. Are they better than I thought? Yes but they aren't a good team. Vitality on the other hand is a good but not great team that should take care of business here. Best of One regular season has given us a lot of abnormal playoff scenarios but as you saw today in Splyce/ROCCAT once it comes down to series, the better teams absolutely roll. I expect this to be a 3-1 with Vitality probably dropping a game to a botched snowball and H2K potentially stalling but I don't think it's unreasonable to say 3-0 Vitality. I'm tempted to take the unders on these games as well but I'll think on it more and come back in the morning.


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Turkish Champions League March 24th:

 (NO ACTION)

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NA LCS March 24th Schedule:
Team Liquid (-141, -1.5 @ +141, -2.5 @ +437)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 19.5)
Cloud 9 (+111, +1.5 @ -185, +2.5 @ -714)
Moneyline: Team Liquid -149 (4 units)

 Prop: Over 4.5 games @ +192 (2 units)

This is a really tough one to call because I feel Liquid are stronger than they were for a lot of the season and I actually believe Doublelift when he says that "we're better than best of ones show" but I also think Cloud 9 are better than they finished. With that said I'm putting a few units on Team Liquid and here's why.

  • They've shown better uptempo play and the game in its current state favors that.
  • Licorice, while good, hasn't played in a match this important in his career while Impact has played dozens of playoff matches. Impact has also looked in excellent form the past few weeks and will have revenge on his mind from the embarassingly bad game he played against Licorice early in the season (which was perhaps his worst single game in his storied career).
  • As good and underrated as Smoothie is I do think Olleh's pool is absolutely incredible on this patch and he could demand some Morgana bans. It's also an excellent pick into Smoothie's Rakan which could create some interesting draft scenarios. 
  • Jensen vs Pobelter goes in Jensen's favor but I don't think it's a particularly large advantage. If Cloud 9 win it will be because Jensen goes berserk but I think Pobelter can neutralize him for the most part.
Ultimately this match could go either way and I wouldn't fault you for taking Cloud 9, they certainly have more upside as a team in general. I don't want to overrate Cloud 9's slump OR Team Liquid's late game surge but I will put at least some weight on it. If Team Liquid had side selection I'd probably add another unit to this but as it stands I think this goes the distance and Team Liquid break serve at some point for a 3-2 victory.
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