These are what I believe the line should be not what I think the books will put it at. I will write this down before looking at the lines the books set for the day as a gauge of whether or not my expectations are in or out of line on the game. I typically weigh my own expectations a lot more because unlike in traditional sports I don't think the books know what they're doing or they just let an algorithm set their lines.
Giants @ Schalke -120 (54.55%)
Vitality -200 (66.66%) @ Unicorns of Love
G2 -300 (75%) @ H2K
Fnatic -300 (75%) @ ROCCAT
Splyce @ Misfits -110 (52.38%)
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LMS March 9th Schedule:
Team Afro (+230, +1.5 @ -130, M1 +185, M2 +185, M3 +185)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 22.5)
J Team (-357, -1.5 @ -104, M1 -263, M2 -263, M3 -263)
G-Rex (+209, +1.5 @ -139, M1 +166, M2 +166, M3 +166)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 22.5)
Flash Wolves (-303, -1.5 @ +103, M1 -233, M2 -233, M3 -233)
Handicapped: J Team -1.5 maps @ -104 (2 units)
Not a huge fan of the constant substitutions but I suppose J Team are only worried about finding a solution to Flash Wolves. FoFo and LilV have been rock solid all season and this Team Afro squad, as discussed the other day, is sort of a one trick team. They snowball off first blood or they don't.
The first meeting between these teams had Afro taking the first game more or less off a stupid one carry protect the Varus composition vs another one carry composition but with Galio/Jarvan. It went late and Afro were able to win. This was back in the super slow 8.2 metagame. The game is much faster now which SHOULD benefit Afro but it turns out other teams are just forced to do their gimmick themselves now and they've had trouble dealing with even bottom dwellers like HKA, MAD Team, and Machi. J Team might not be a true world class team but they are fairly clearly the second best team in the LMS so I like the sweep for a couple units.
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Handicapped: Flash Wolves -1.5 maps @ +103 (3 units)
So despite what the LMS standings might look like there is really only one "good" team from this region and it's Flash Wolves. Historically the LMS has had 2-3 solid teams that belong on an international stage but after a rather weak showing last year and a league this year that has shown little to no answer to Flash Wolves, this region seems to me to be extremely weak. Outside of the Flash Wolves the gameplay is all very sloppy and very vague in direction while Flash Wolves are concise, versatile, and surgical in dismantling these teams.
You could make an argument along the lines of "Flash Wolves are due for a loss" (regression) after winning all eight of their series so far and only dropping two games over the course of it for a stunning 16-2 start but quite frankly they're just leaps and bounds better than this entire region and I feel bad. G-Rex is the second best team in the league and in their first matchup in Week 2 Flash Wolves dismantled G-Rex in 35 and 36 minute games and they weren't close. Now that was with a different jungler and mid but I don't particularly think there is a huge difference. G-Rex have recently dropped a game to J Team, a series 0-2 to AHQ and a game to last place Hong Kong Attitude so it's not like they've been pristine either.
Unless Flash Wolves literally troll or don't care about this game, which they've shown no tendency to do at all this year, then this should be a stomp, and unfortunately for the LMS a display of just how weak this once decent league was outside of Flash Wolves.
LPL March 9th Schedule:
Suning Gaming (-167, -1.5 @ +167, M1 -143, M2 -133, M3 -125)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 21.5)
FunPlus Phoenix (+124, +1.5 @ -222, M1 +109, M2 +102, M3 -104)
Invictus Gaming (-357, -1.5 @ -109, M1 -250, M2 -256, M3 -256)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 21.5)
BiliBili Gaming (+253, +1.5 @ -125, M1 +185, M2 +185, M3 +185)
Handicapped: Suning Gaming -1.5 @ +167 (2 units)
Suning have had a bit of a rough go of it since their road trip win over OMG as the away team in the debut match in the new OMG home stadium. They were able to take a game off Snake IN THE SNAKE PIT and then lost a series to WE that likely should have been a 2-0 for them. After a botch lead in the hour long game one they firmly stomped WE with both teams playing scaling comps in a 35 minute game and then struggled to close in yet another double scaling matchup in game three that was eerily similar to game one.
My read on Suning is this, Knight, H4cker, and Fury are elite players but this team sometimes has trouble closing games out. They almost always take care of business against the weaker teams in the league besides one weird game loss to LGD and WE if you want to consider that. They're also competitive against the top teams playing Invictus close in a game (few people have done that), Taking Snake to three on the road, defeating RNG, taking Rogue Warriors to three, and making EDG fight for their second game win. I think Suning are more or less the top of what I'll call tier 3 in the LPL which is the cluster of teams fighting for playoff spots in the middle of the table. I think they're better than everyone besides RNG (with Uzi), EDG, Invictus, and Snake. They're similar to BiliBili Gaming in that they consistently wallop the bad teams but can't quite hang with the big boys.
Becuase they consistently whoop the bad teams (2-0's against OMG, Vici,and TopSports as well as a 2-1 against LGD) I'm willing to lay a couple units on the handicap here. I think people are overrating FunPlus' random game wins a bit too much. This team is barely better than the bottom dwelling Vici and TopSports. They've won three of their last four but it was against LGD, TopSports, and a JD team coming off of the two week holiday seemingly still hungover. Yea they took a series off Snake earlier in the season but I think this FPP team is the LPL's version of the BBQ Olivers; inconsistent, showing flashes of mediocrity sometimes, but mostly bad. We haven't really been suckered into the BBQ Olivers being a "sneaky good" team in the LCK and I don't see why we should treat FPP any differently.
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Handicapped: Invictus Gaming -1.5 maps @ -109 (3 units)
I like this BiliBili Gaming team and think they're fairly underrated despite their placement (they'd be 4th currently if you merged both conferences). They struggle with execution and because of that they've struggled against the top tier teams depsite spanking all of the bottom tier squads. Their record against "Top 4" teams: 1-2 loss to RW, 1-2 loss to RNG, 0-2 loss to Snake, 0-2 loss to EDG. Invictus are pretty clearly the best team in the LPL to me with Snake and EDG making up their own tier perhaps half a level below them and even with side selection I just can't see Invictus not continuing their absolutely ridiculous season especially after just stomping EDG and Snake, two teams similar to but better than BiliBili. This seems easy and we're likely not going to get to see Invictus in a game with this kind of line value for awhile. I'm confident in a 2-0.
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European LCS March 9th Schedule:
Giants -104 @ Schalke 04 -130
Team Vitality -175 @ Unicorns of Love +128
G2 eSports -313 @ H2K +215
Fnatic -286 @ ROCCAT +199
Splyce -114 @ Misfits -119
Moneyline: Giants -104 (1 unit)
Both of these teams looked quite terrible last week on the new patch and it's our job to figure out who we think has figured some things out and adjusted so let's think about what they've been doing wrong and which is easier to fix.
Giants gave too many kills to rookie Sheriff and threw a huge lead to H2K in a bit of a stunner before the patch, got slowly bled out by ROCCAT until they got Banner minion'd out, but stayed competitive against G2 with their early game Kled/Olaf/Galio dive comp before being outscaled by the disciplined G2.
Schalke got stomped by the suddenly hot but still sloppy Unicorns of Love, helped Vitality break their slump in a slow fought, low kill Banner of Command game, and before 8.4 got soundly beaten by a Splyce team that seems to have quietly found itself.
The trajectory makes me want to bet on Giants in this game but I also think back to my mid-season tiers where I had Schalke making a playoff push and I'm just not sure I see it this season. Pride has really fallen off and seeing interviews with a couple of the pro junglers stating his predictable decision making gives me cause for concern leading into a metagame so heavily reliant on jungle hard reads. I also think Betsy has been fairly solid this split, enough so that I think he could perhaps limit Nukeduck's impact on this game.
I'm slightly favoring Giants which is more or less admitting defeat on my pre and mid season predictions of this Schalke team but they also have side choice and another week on this patch so I'm going to limit this one to a single unit.
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Moneyline: Team Vitality -175 (1 unit)
Anybody that's been reading this blog knows that I'm the conductor on the "Vitality is overrated" hype train but I think Unicorns are due for a return to form after this weird five game winning streak. I know this patch is good for them but Vitality looked better last week and I simply don't think this Unicorns team is that good even on this patch. Another point is that Europe are sort of the test dummies for new patches. Friday and Saturday mornings they're the first major region to play on the new patch and with such a weird one I think a lot of teams were caught off guard or didn't plan accordingly. With some of the weirdness settled down and teams knowing how to counter Banner of Command strategies by snowballing early or saving and stalling late, I think even the overrated Vitality are good for a unit or two to show up and smack this Unicorns team back to reality. I could see Exileh finally being punished for his stupid, blind aggression by Jiizuke and Gilius specifically but Cabochard could also just run away with this game.
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Moneyline: Misfits -119 (1 unit)
Splyce sort of stumps me. I had them as a reasonably strong team going into the season and then they showed how linear and boring they are and looked terrible for most of the season but they're somehow in 3rd place in this wild EU LCS split. I'm not going to put too much weight into that since 3rd and 10th are separated by 3 wins. So this boils down to how good do I think Splyce are? I think they're somewhere in the middle of the pack while I think Misfits are the best team that isn't G2 or Fnatic (aka 3rd place). Misfits get side selection and while they've had a few lapses against H2K and Schalke, they've played close games against Fnatic and G2 which, to me, firmly cements them in that 3rd spot. I'm not sure this line should actually be this close but I did put it at -110 myself. It's mostly that I don't know which version of each team will show up. I'm willing to put a chip on Misfits who I think are the superior overall squad with side choice and a better jungler on a very jungle reliant patch. I might up this to another unit or two tomorrow so stay tuned because I do think Misfits SHOULD be enough better.
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Parlay (2): Fnatic -286 and G2 -313 (0.5 unit)
Trying to be a little smarter about laying a ton of units on heavy moneyline favorites in best of ones so I'll see if I can accrue some value in a two team parlay here.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Handicapped: Flash Wolves -1.5 maps @ +103 (3 units)
So despite what the LMS standings might look like there is really only one "good" team from this region and it's Flash Wolves. Historically the LMS has had 2-3 solid teams that belong on an international stage but after a rather weak showing last year and a league this year that has shown little to no answer to Flash Wolves, this region seems to me to be extremely weak. Outside of the Flash Wolves the gameplay is all very sloppy and very vague in direction while Flash Wolves are concise, versatile, and surgical in dismantling these teams.
You could make an argument along the lines of "Flash Wolves are due for a loss" (regression) after winning all eight of their series so far and only dropping two games over the course of it for a stunning 16-2 start but quite frankly they're just leaps and bounds better than this entire region and I feel bad. G-Rex is the second best team in the league and in their first matchup in Week 2 Flash Wolves dismantled G-Rex in 35 and 36 minute games and they weren't close. Now that was with a different jungler and mid but I don't particularly think there is a huge difference. G-Rex have recently dropped a game to J Team, a series 0-2 to AHQ and a game to last place Hong Kong Attitude so it's not like they've been pristine either.
Unless Flash Wolves literally troll or don't care about this game, which they've shown no tendency to do at all this year, then this should be a stomp, and unfortunately for the LMS a display of just how weak this once decent league was outside of Flash Wolves.
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LPL March 9th Schedule:
Suning Gaming (-167, -1.5 @ +167, M1 -143, M2 -133, M3 -125)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 21.5)
FunPlus Phoenix (+124, +1.5 @ -222, M1 +109, M2 +102, M3 -104)
Invictus Gaming (-357, -1.5 @ -109, M1 -250, M2 -256, M3 -256)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 21.5)
BiliBili Gaming (+253, +1.5 @ -125, M1 +185, M2 +185, M3 +185)
Handicapped: Suning Gaming -1.5 @ +167 (2 units)
Suning have had a bit of a rough go of it since their road trip win over OMG as the away team in the debut match in the new OMG home stadium. They were able to take a game off Snake IN THE SNAKE PIT and then lost a series to WE that likely should have been a 2-0 for them. After a botch lead in the hour long game one they firmly stomped WE with both teams playing scaling comps in a 35 minute game and then struggled to close in yet another double scaling matchup in game three that was eerily similar to game one.
My read on Suning is this, Knight, H4cker, and Fury are elite players but this team sometimes has trouble closing games out. They almost always take care of business against the weaker teams in the league besides one weird game loss to LGD and WE if you want to consider that. They're also competitive against the top teams playing Invictus close in a game (few people have done that), Taking Snake to three on the road, defeating RNG, taking Rogue Warriors to three, and making EDG fight for their second game win. I think Suning are more or less the top of what I'll call tier 3 in the LPL which is the cluster of teams fighting for playoff spots in the middle of the table. I think they're better than everyone besides RNG (with Uzi), EDG, Invictus, and Snake. They're similar to BiliBili Gaming in that they consistently wallop the bad teams but can't quite hang with the big boys.
Becuase they consistently whoop the bad teams (2-0's against OMG, Vici,and TopSports as well as a 2-1 against LGD) I'm willing to lay a couple units on the handicap here. I think people are overrating FunPlus' random game wins a bit too much. This team is barely better than the bottom dwelling Vici and TopSports. They've won three of their last four but it was against LGD, TopSports, and a JD team coming off of the two week holiday seemingly still hungover. Yea they took a series off Snake earlier in the season but I think this FPP team is the LPL's version of the BBQ Olivers; inconsistent, showing flashes of mediocrity sometimes, but mostly bad. We haven't really been suckered into the BBQ Olivers being a "sneaky good" team in the LCK and I don't see why we should treat FPP any differently.
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Handicapped: Invictus Gaming -1.5 maps @ -109 (3 units)
I like this BiliBili Gaming team and think they're fairly underrated despite their placement (they'd be 4th currently if you merged both conferences). They struggle with execution and because of that they've struggled against the top tier teams depsite spanking all of the bottom tier squads. Their record against "Top 4" teams: 1-2 loss to RW, 1-2 loss to RNG, 0-2 loss to Snake, 0-2 loss to EDG. Invictus are pretty clearly the best team in the LPL to me with Snake and EDG making up their own tier perhaps half a level below them and even with side selection I just can't see Invictus not continuing their absolutely ridiculous season especially after just stomping EDG and Snake, two teams similar to but better than BiliBili. This seems easy and we're likely not going to get to see Invictus in a game with this kind of line value for awhile. I'm confident in a 2-0.
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European LCS March 9th Schedule:
Giants -104 @ Schalke 04 -130
Team Vitality -175 @ Unicorns of Love +128
G2 eSports -313 @ H2K +215
Fnatic -286 @ ROCCAT +199
Splyce -114 @ Misfits -119
Moneyline: Giants -104 (1 unit)
Both of these teams looked quite terrible last week on the new patch and it's our job to figure out who we think has figured some things out and adjusted so let's think about what they've been doing wrong and which is easier to fix.
Giants gave too many kills to rookie Sheriff and threw a huge lead to H2K in a bit of a stunner before the patch, got slowly bled out by ROCCAT until they got Banner minion'd out, but stayed competitive against G2 with their early game Kled/Olaf/Galio dive comp before being outscaled by the disciplined G2.
Schalke got stomped by the suddenly hot but still sloppy Unicorns of Love, helped Vitality break their slump in a slow fought, low kill Banner of Command game, and before 8.4 got soundly beaten by a Splyce team that seems to have quietly found itself.
The trajectory makes me want to bet on Giants in this game but I also think back to my mid-season tiers where I had Schalke making a playoff push and I'm just not sure I see it this season. Pride has really fallen off and seeing interviews with a couple of the pro junglers stating his predictable decision making gives me cause for concern leading into a metagame so heavily reliant on jungle hard reads. I also think Betsy has been fairly solid this split, enough so that I think he could perhaps limit Nukeduck's impact on this game.
I'm slightly favoring Giants which is more or less admitting defeat on my pre and mid season predictions of this Schalke team but they also have side choice and another week on this patch so I'm going to limit this one to a single unit.
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Moneyline: Team Vitality -175 (1 unit)
Anybody that's been reading this blog knows that I'm the conductor on the "Vitality is overrated" hype train but I think Unicorns are due for a return to form after this weird five game winning streak. I know this patch is good for them but Vitality looked better last week and I simply don't think this Unicorns team is that good even on this patch. Another point is that Europe are sort of the test dummies for new patches. Friday and Saturday mornings they're the first major region to play on the new patch and with such a weird one I think a lot of teams were caught off guard or didn't plan accordingly. With some of the weirdness settled down and teams knowing how to counter Banner of Command strategies by snowballing early or saving and stalling late, I think even the overrated Vitality are good for a unit or two to show up and smack this Unicorns team back to reality. I could see Exileh finally being punished for his stupid, blind aggression by Jiizuke and Gilius specifically but Cabochard could also just run away with this game.
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Moneyline: Misfits -119 (1 unit)
Splyce sort of stumps me. I had them as a reasonably strong team going into the season and then they showed how linear and boring they are and looked terrible for most of the season but they're somehow in 3rd place in this wild EU LCS split. I'm not going to put too much weight into that since 3rd and 10th are separated by 3 wins. So this boils down to how good do I think Splyce are? I think they're somewhere in the middle of the pack while I think Misfits are the best team that isn't G2 or Fnatic (aka 3rd place). Misfits get side selection and while they've had a few lapses against H2K and Schalke, they've played close games against Fnatic and G2 which, to me, firmly cements them in that 3rd spot. I'm not sure this line should actually be this close but I did put it at -110 myself. It's mostly that I don't know which version of each team will show up. I'm willing to put a chip on Misfits who I think are the superior overall squad with side choice and a better jungler on a very jungle reliant patch. I might up this to another unit or two tomorrow so stay tuned because I do think Misfits SHOULD be enough better.
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Parlay (2): Fnatic -286 and G2 -313 (0.5 unit)
Trying to be a little smarter about laying a ton of units on heavy moneyline favorites in best of ones so I'll see if I can accrue some value in a two team parlay here.
Overrated / Underrated Teams Page Updated Weekly (Updated 3/5)!!
LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
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