These are what I believe the line should be not what I think the books will put it at. I will write this down before looking at the lines the books set for the day as a gauge of whether or not my expectations are in or out of line on the game. I typically weigh my own expectations a lot more because unlike in traditional sports I don't think the books know what they're doing or they just let an algorithm set their lines.
Afreeca -400 (80%) @ Kongdoo Monster
Kingzone -300 (75%) @ BBQ Olivers
Echo Fox -150 (60%) @ Counter Logic Gaming
FlyQuest -122 (55%) @ Golden Guardians
Clutch Gaming @ Team Liquid (push)
Team Solo Mid @ Cloud 9 (push)
OpTic Gaming @ 100 Thieves -150 (60%)
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LCK March 11th Schedule:
Afreeca Freecs (-769, -1.5 @ -159, M1 -357, M2 -263, M3 -263)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 19.5)
Kongdoo Monster (+469, +1.5 @ +115, M1 +240, M2 +185, M3 +185)
Kingzone DragonX (-667, -1.5 @ -200, M1 -435, M2 -417, M3 -417)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 18.5)
BBQ Olivers (+386, +1.5 @ +145, M1 +281, M2 +285, M3 +285)
Handicapped: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ -159 (6 units)
With KSV pulling an upset over KT this morning Afreeca can now make a run at 2nd place and they also have KSV potentially breathing down their necks if they get hot at the right time in a crowded top of the table. Kongdoo are in a really unfortunate limbo where they're too good for the challenger scene seemingly destroying everyone every time they get relegated but they're simply not good enough for the LCK so it appears they'll be stuck in last place without some roster moves. They took some matches earlier in the season with their innovative Galio compositions but other than Edge and Ssol turning in a few low percentage monster performances to steal a couple games, this Kongdoo team is just outclassed by just about everybody in the LCK. Afreeca are a great team under some pressure so I trust they'll show up for this match and regardless of whether they run the subs or not they just outclass Kongdoo in every way, shape, and form. A 2-0 would put Afreeca into a game wins tie with KT Rolster and only one behind Kingzone if it somehow comes to tiebreakers for seeding.
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Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ -200 (6 units)
Prop: Map 1 Kingzone First Blood @ -175 (0.5 units)
Prop: Map 1 UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1 unit)
You know this is exactly the kind of place that BBQ would randomly show up and just take a dump on my parade but I think after BBQ embarassingly stole a match win from Kingzone last time, they'll have revenge in mind. With KT Rolster losing and Afreeca likely to 2-0 Kongdoo, Kingzone could ACTUALLY LOSE their grip on first place. They'll be up for this game. With Rascal indefinitely suspended for misconduct there isn't even a chance Khan doesn't play now so you can expect the current best player in the world to do his thing and obliterate Crazy. Coincidentally Crazy and Tempt are the strongest players on BBQ so just like last time around this is a ridiculous mismatch. I don't think Kingzone will be "post holiday hungover" for this time around and will thoroughly stomp BBQ. This is the best team on the planet after all.
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LPL March 11th Schedule:
Snake eSports (-500, -1.5 @ -149, M1 -333, M2 -333, M3 -294)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 19.5)
TopSports Gaming (+325, +1.5 @ +108, M1 +237, M2 +237, M3 +213)
EDward Gaming (+119, +1.5 @ -263, M1 +105, M2 +105, M3 +105)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 19.5)
Royal Never Giveup (-152, -1.5 @ +185, M1 -137, M2 -137, M3 -137)
Handicapped: Snake -1.5 maps @ -149 (6 units)
I'm not buying into the "TopSports have looked better recently" hype. This is a 2-9 team with a 6-19 game record (only one game better than Vici). Snake are the best team in the West conference and arguably their strongest player Flandre is one of the few top laners in the region that can give all-time great Marin a run for his money. With Marin having to deal with another good top laner, especially one willing to bust out weird counterpicks, I'm not sure the rest of TopSports Gaming will be able to create enough on their own against the superior players on Snake even with side choice. Snake are also 14-1 on blue side so even if TSG try a red side counter strategy they've shown a resilience to that type of thing. (NOTE: To be fair here, the first half of the season blue side was superior due to patches). I think Snake outclass TSG in every position except top and Snake's best player, top laner Flandre, is a player that can actually compete with Marin so I expect those two to cancel each other out and Snake have the big edge.
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Moneyline: RNG -152 (3 units)
Royal Never Give Up have given a game here or there to middle of the table teams even since Uzi has come back but they've won all three matches since his return and their wins have been dominant. Uzi is a generational player. He's a difference maker in every single game and the game warps around him. Unfortunately for EDG, RNG get side choice game one and potentially again in game three if it gets there insuring good matchups or a compositional mismatch. As good as Scout is, Xiaohu is one of the few mids in China, Rookie, Xiye, and Athena being the others, that can perform as well if not better. Statistically these two teams are relatively even but I think RNG have an extra strength and that's world class jungler Karsa. If Xiaohu can neutralize Scout, Uzi/Ming can even go neutral I think Karsa can apply pressure to the correct places, especially given potential favorable matchups in games one and three to keep RNG in control of these games. Both of these teams play a fairly controlled style but RNG are just more explosive and I think Karsa is the gamechanger here. Uzi is also one of the few ADC's that I'd say is definitively better than iBoy. All time greats have a tendency to do that. I like this EDG team and they could steal this series but I think the odds are stacked against them. RNG seem to be ramping up after an Uzi-less first half and plan to be a title contender. EDG will likely be in the conversation too but I think RNG is just stronger where it matters in a matchup like this.
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LMS March 11th Schedule:
MAD Team (-125, -1.5 @ +200, M1 -116, M2 -118, M3 -118)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 21.5)
Hong Kong Attitude (-109, +1.5 @ -294, M1 -116, M2 -118, M3 -118)
Handicapped: MAD Team -1.5 maps @ +200 (1 unit)
HKA are the worst team in the LMS and while MAD Team aren't really that great either they are just coming off a stunning upset win over J Team and won 2-1 against HKA last time. I think they can take the 2-0 this time. This HKA roster is frankly terrible and Chawy will be a liability against Uniboy, the strongest member of MAD.
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North American LCS March 11th Schedule:
Echo Fox -192 @ Counter Logic Gaming +140
FlyQuest -130 @ Golden Guardians +102
Clutch Gaming +109 @ Team Liquid -137
Team Solo Mid +101 @ Cloud 9 -128
OpTic Gaming +140 @ 100 Thieves -192
(UPDATE: Adding 1 unit UNDER bet to the FlyQuest/GG game)
NA and EU have been so unpredictable for a lot of people. You would have had better luck the past two weeks jamming the underdog every single game than the favorite which is great for the sport, rough for our wallets. I'm still limiting my wagers since I don't trust my read on this metagame and with playoffs sealed for some teams it throws another spanner in the works. Couple huge matches today. Should be a great day of League to watch!
Prop: Echo Fox @ CLG UNDER 37:00 @ -116 (2 units)
Moneyline: CLG +140 (0.5 units)
Week 8 and 9 are always tricky to predict because you need to figure out who has the motivation to still play at their best. Echo Fox have clinched playoffs while CLG are in a "must win the next three" to make playoffs situation. Now Echo Fox is tied with Cloud 9 for the #1 seed so they could want to play this out but I'm hesitant laying that kind of juice even though I know Echo Fox is the superior team. CLG has side selection and they absolutely must have this game. I'll put half a unit on the underdogs for that reason but I'm putting two units on the UNDER because I think 37 is high for these two squads and how they play. I see this being a short game no matter who wins which might be counterintuitive as teams tend to tense up and slow down the more important a match is but I think this will likely be a stomp in one direction or the other.
Moneyline: FlyQuest -130 (2 units)
I don't normally like betting two weaker teams with nothing to play for because it's tough to judge who will show up and who won't but I think FlyQuest is the superior team here by quite a bit. They looked quite good against CLG (another mediocre team but a really hungry one) yesterday and against Clutch last week as well. Golden Guardians won the first meeting between these two teams so for some teams that aren't going to make playoffs this could be a place to draw some motivation I suppose but I'm mostly betting this because I think FlyQuest is a signficantly better team with better individual players. They've shown fewer weaknesses than Golden Guardians.
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Moneyline: Team Liquid -137 (2 units)
I don't really know why TL are favored in this game and by this much but whatever. Clutch have clinched a playoff spot but they could still challenge for a #1 or #2 seed if they choose to. Team Liquid however absolutely need this game and for as good as Clutch has looked I think these two teams actually grade out fairly close to equal. Team Liquid have struggled in recent weeks and their players have expressed that how good of a team they are has not been manifesting on stage which is more or less a shot at the best of one format. These two teams are even to me in a vaccuum but I think the extra motivation and side selection is on the side of Team Liquid. They need this a lot more. A win would more or less lock them in for playoffs. If they can win the next three they could end up with a #3 or #4 seed instead of a #5 or #6.
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Moneyline: Team Solo Mid +101 (2 units)
This is a similar situation to the one above. Two great teams but one has already clinched and is just fighting for a #1 or #2 seed while the other absolutely needs this game to secure a playoff spot. TSM are a very threatening team so I expect Cloud 9 to be up for this game but they had some really weird decisions in their game yesterday against OpTic where they could have closed but were really indecisive around the baron. You could say they "didn't need to" but I quite frankly think they punted a lot of value not taking baron for the ten minutes they were dancing around it and it gave OpTic windows to fight back into the game. I think TSM are going to pull out all the stops for this one. I still think this team could win the Spring Split altogether and in order to do that they need to secure a playoff spot.
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Moneyline: OpTic Gaming +140 (0.5 unit)
OpTic have had to play Cloud 9, Echo Fox, Clutch, and TSM for thier last 4 games. Arguably the four best teams in the league depending on who you ask and certainly within the five. They looked decent against Echo Fox and had a chance to beat Cloud 9 yesterday although they didn't look particularly great. Maybe I just hate 100 Thieves but I'm willing to put half a unit on 100 Thieves resting on their laurels just a bit after clinching playoffs yesterday and OpTic looking to surprise. Perhaps Arrow's Draven will pop off. This is strictly a half unit hunch. Don't tail unless you hate 100 Thieves as much as I do.
To clarify I don't actually hate them they're just the team I've been the most wrong about in NA (it's Schalke in EU). 100 Thieves have impressed me. I quite honestly thought this collection of pseudo-washed up veterans were just collecting a paycheck but they've turned it on and looked clean. Their weakness is that if Aphromoo isn't creating for them then they don't really do anything proactive at all. So if Aphromoo isn't making plays then they just sit there waiting for mistakes which is a bad way to play against better teams. In all likelihood they'll take care of business in this game. I'm just having some fun.
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LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
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