These are what I believe the line should be not what I think the books will put it at. I will write this down before looking at the lines the books set for the day as a gauge of whether or not my expectations are in or out of line on the game. I typically weigh my own expectations a lot more because unlike in traditional sports I don't think the books know what they're doing or they just let an algorithm set their lines.
SK Telecom -186 (65%) @ Jin Air
KSV eSports -233 (70%) @ MVP
Counter Logic Gaming @ Team Liquid -186 (65%)
OpTic Gaming @ Echo Fox -300 (75%)
100 Thieves @ Team Solo Mid -186 (65%)
Cloud 9 -300 (75%) @ Golden Guardians
FlyQuest @ Clutch Gaming -186 (65%)
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LCK March 4th Schedule:
SK Telecom (-250, -1.5 @ +118, M1 -200, M2 -200, M3 -200)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 17.5)
Jin Air (+182, +1.5 @ -161, M1 +145, M2 +145, M3 +145)
KSV eSports (-417, -1.5 @ -128, M1 -286, M2 -286, M3 -286)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 17.5)
MVP (+272, +1.5 @ -105, M1 +206, M2 +204, M3 +204)
Handicapped: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ +118 (2 units)
Moneyline: SK Telecom -250 (3 units)
There are so many ways you could look at this match. Jin Air should have 2-0'd BBQ but they looked sloppy and made terrible decisions as well as mechanical misplays but they also destroyed Afreeca coming out of the break. SKT soundly defeated the surging ROX Tigers but struggled against an Afreeca team that's towards the top of the league but opted to use subs for the first two games so maybe "staying competitive" in that series doesn't really say as much as you'd think at first glance.
If you were to make the pro-Jin Air argument you'd talk about how dominantly the defeated Afreeca and were able to hang in against KT Rolster in a 2-1 loss. Grave and UmTi have been exceeding expectations this season and Teddy has been his awesome self. They also defeated SK Telecom from down a game in the last series they played in week one. They also have side selection.
- Jin Air looked absolutely dreadful in the second half of game one and in all of game two against a BBQ Olivers team that, quite frankly, is very weak and inconsistent. They were unable to close out leads in both games because of poor decision making and individual misplays.
- SK Telecom are a different team than the iteration of SKT that Jin Air faced the first time and that was a slugfest of a series that easily could have been an SKT 2-0.
- The first loss is going to be sticking in SKT's mind.
- Statistically these teams are very similar and their players are very similar across the board (except at support). In the standings SKT have a one series lead on Jin Air for the 6th place spot but absolutely need this win to keep pace with KSV who will likely win against MVP today. Perhaps I'm wrong but I think SKT are going to be hungrier for this win. This is a dangerous line of thinking though because Jin Air more or less MUST WIN this game unless you want to assume they'll sweep 6 in a row against Kongdoo, MVP, KSV, Afreeca, Kingzone, and ROX (in that order)
- Jin Air have the easiest schedule next week with Kongdoo followed by MVP, while SKT have Kingzone on Tuesday and KT Rolster on Thursday. You could paint this picture either way as Jin Air slacking heading into the week or prepping for this match. You could also say the same about SK Telecom.
I'm going with SK Telecom for the 2-0 and while that seems like a completely insane call hear me out. Both of these teams have shown inconsistencies and both have shown good form. I think SKT look like a better team right now. You could argue that Jin Air's victory against Afreeca coming out of the week off was a holiday hangover for Afreeca or the extra week to prepare leading to more decisive play but Afreeca have been back to themselves since then while Jin Air have really struggled since then. What I'm saying is I don't think that's a coincidence. The metagame on 8.3 (Korea is still on 8.3) is great for Faker and he'll demand Azir ban and possibly others like Kassadin, especially if Taliyah is the game plan from Grace (it's been his best champion despite his 2-3 record in my opinion).
For what it's worth the line value screams Jin Air to me as I had this line set at -185 and I wouldn't blame you for putting a unit or two on Jin Air just in theory because the value is great but I just can't ignore my gut on this.
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Handicapped: KSV -1.5 maps @ -128 (2 units)
I know I know. This KSV team has just killed me all season long but here's my justification. Currently their 5th seed playoff spot is threatened by their seemingly lazy play and preparation in recent weeks and with a surging SK Telecom and ROX Tigers behind them KSV HAVE TO CARE ABOUT THIS MATCH. They've also been fairly consistent about beating the bottom half teams in the league (besides that Kongdoo match). They may not be able to beat the good teams but this is a team that has more or less taken care of business against the bad teams with 2-0 victories against MVP, Jin Air, and a 2-1 against BBQ. The last time these two teams faced off KSV won game one in 28 minutes and that was when average game time was 37+ minutes. Traditionally MVP have struggle with teams who have strong laners because they have trouble transitioning out of lane from behind and KSV, love em or hate em, have excellent laners across the board.
Something just tells me KSV are going to rofl-stomp this one. Their players are simply too good for this team not to do so against the bad rosters.
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LPL March 4th Schedule:
Snake eSports (-175, -1.5 @ +158, M1 -164, M2 -164, M3 -164)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 20.5)
Suning Gaming (+136, +1.5 @ -208, M1 +124, M2 +124, M3 +124)
Team WE (-588, -1.5 @ -159, M1 -357, M2 -357, M3 -357)
@ (Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 20.5)
TopSports Gaming (+353, +1.5 @ +116, M1 +240, M2 +243, M3 +243)
Moneyline: Snake eSports -175 (3 units)
This feels like it could be a surprisingly tough series for Snake as Suning have been showing very strongly but this Snake team is just so solid and consistent. They don't lose drafts on whacky picks, they know exactly who they are and play within their pools. Hell we haven't even seen a whacky Flandre pick yet this season and usually when that happens he ends up styling on some poor soul. I'm surprised this line is actually this close because as good as Suning have been Snake are more than likely the second or third best team in the LPL. They've done a great job of dispatching of mid and lower tier teams with their only match losses coming to Invictus (the best team in the league) last week and before that you'd have to go all the way back to a bizarre week one series against FunPlus Phoenix and we all know how weird week ones can be.
If I didn't have as much respect for Suning as I do I'd probably hammer this and take the -1.5 as well but I think this could be a competitive series.
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Moneyline: Team WE -1.5 @ -159 (3 units)
Team WE are coming off of a solid win against a strong JD Gaming team and have had no problem taking care of bottom of the table teams with 2-0's against OMG and Vici and a weird 2-1 against FunPlus Phoenix who seem to be just a tad better than the truly bad squads. TopSports might be the worst team in the LPL with Vici Gaming's new additions seemingly bringing a new complexion to that team. Marin is quite the player that's about all they've god and with Team WE still maintaining the same worlds roster from the past year I think it's about time they start kicking it into gear for a playoff push as they currently sit in the middle of the table after a relatively tough schedule the past two weeks which included JD, RNG, Rogue Warriors, and EDward Gaming.
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North American LCS March 4th Schedule:
CLG +189 @ Liquid -250
OpTic Gaming +181 @ Echo Fox -238
100 Thieves +133 @ Team Solo Mid -182
Cloud 9 -435 @ Golden Guardians +281
FlyQuest +122 @ Clutch Gaming -167
I'm limiting wagers to 2 units because I still don't have a good read on this patch and how teams are responding to it. I'm making one exception for NA today because I have a strong feeling about it. I'm also dodging the props for today for the same reason.
Moneyline: Team Liquid -250 (2 units)
(UPDATE: Hedged this at CLG -227 at 19 minutes to cut losses to less than half a unit. Might add on.)
CLG benefitted a lot from some big mistakes by Cloud 9 with a lead. They were once again behind in a game and I can't see Liquid not getting a lead against this team especially with side choice.
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Moneyline: Echo Fox -238 (2 units)
Echo Fox are going to be looking to come back after an embarassing loss to Golden Guardians yesterday to maintain their grip on first place.
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Moneyline: Team Solo Mid -182 (3 units)
This is my only bet in NA or EU over my 2 unit Patch 8.4 limit for the weekend after a brutal Friday. A win here will give TSM a lthe lead over 100 Thieves. TSM have looked excellent the past two weeks decisively beating everybody they've faced and while 100 Thieves have more or less only won games against teams that don't pressure them. I predicted TSM would be the best team in NA by the end of the season and while their record may not state that they certainly look like they're on schedule to reach that form by seasons end.
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Moneyline: Clutch Gaming -167 (2 units)
FlyQuest are more or less mathematically eliminated and have lost three straight to teams in the top half of the standings. Their last two wins were against OpTic and CLG so while they can hang and beat the bottom teams in the league they have struggled mightily with the better squads.
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LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List
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