Monday, March 19, 2018

Betting: March 20th (LCK / LPL)

LCK March 20th Schedule:

KT Rolster (-667, -1.5 @ -208, M1 -400, M2 -400, M3 -313)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 18.5)
MVP (+430, +1.5 @ +142, M1 +275, M2 +275, M3 +223)


Afreeca Freecs (-323, -1.5 @ -116, M1 -250, M2 -250, M3 -192)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 19.5)
BBQ Olivers (+237, +1.5 @ -116, M1 +185, M2 +187, M3 +147)


Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ -164 (3 units) 

I put this in on Sunday night during tiebreakers because I had a feeling this line would drop when people realized what KT do to bad teams. KT also have every reason to go for this as it could be the difference between a second and third seed in the playoff gauntlet. MVP have looked much better and Pilot has really been performing well but this is just a complete mismatch. I expect this to be all business on KT's side and while they might not be in full style mode they should be clean and concise in these. I'm not going to take the under because I think they'll be at least a little bit more careful but I definitely want to. I might actually add on here so stay tuned.


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Handicapped: Afreeca Freecs -1.5 @ -102  (3 units)

Just like with the KT bet I put this in on Sunday night because I knew this -102 wouldn't hold. With a 2-0 Afreeca can secure their #2 seed regardless of the result of the final match of the season, a showdown with KT Rolster. I expect them to take care of business here against an inconsistent BBQ team. We've been burned by BBQ but I think this is exactly the moment you don't shy away from them. They aren't a good team and have only looked good in seemingly random performances. Afreeca need this to secure a coveted #2 seed so they get to see information out of KT or whoever they end up facing. I also happen to think this is a brutal matchup for BBQ. Kuro is looking like the league MVP and while Tempt has been servicable he doesn't really stand a chance here. Afreeca stomped this match the first time around and that was in the slower Patch 8.2 metagame. I full expect the same thing to happen with the stakes upped.

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LPL March 20th Schedule:




Rogue Warriors (-1250, -1.5 @ -263, M1 -588, M2 -556, M3 -400)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 22.5)
LGD Gaming (+635, +1.5 @ +175, M1 +369, M3 +355, M3 +275)


Royal Never Giveup (-556, -1.5 @ -141, M1 -345, M2 -345, M3 -294)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5)
JD Gaming (+375, +1.5 @ +108, M1 +248, M2 +246, M3 +213)



Handicapped: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ -263 (4 units)

Rogue Warriors are on an absolute tear as SmLz and DoinB dominate their opposition game in and game out. This team has lost a single game in their past nine matches for an impressive 18-1 game record in that time including 2-0 victories over Snake, EDG, and Team WE. These guys are legit. I also happen to be done with my "LGD is better than their record" shpiel. This team just sucks and without Imp I can't see it being better in the short term. Perhaps next split they'll be ok but this team is out of playoff contention and looking toward next split. Rogue Warriors have a chance to keep pace with the seemingly unstoppable Invictus Gaming and keep their two match lead over RNG. In my opinion IG, RW, and RNG are the three best teams in the LPL and are in their own S Tier while Suning, EDG, BBG, and perhaps WE are in the A Tier. This team is dominant and I see no reason not to take the sweep even with this much juice especially because their strongest players will be facing LGD's weakest players in Yuuki and Fdy.

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Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ -141 (4 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -119 (1 unit)

I was wrong about Snake being close to RNG. With Uzi in the lineup they're simply a completely different team. This is one of the best players of all time and he's still dominant. As a matter of fact I think he's gotten better. JD were good earlier in the season and even took a 2-1 series off of RNG in Week 2 but that was a different RNG roster. After a 4-1 start, JD have dropped six of their last eight with their only wins coming against two of the worst teams in the league in Vici and OMG. Even then they gave a game to Vici. This team lost to FunPlus as well. I've watched most but not all of JD's games and it just seems like they are a one trick squad that got figured out. They've shown nothing but protect the carry style compositions and that's really predictable for other teams to draft against however they choose. They've played a lot of champions but they all accomplish the same thing. With Galio and Zoe nerfed and Azir taken away in about half their matches (47% most of which has been recently) this team appears to be solved and unless they come up with something new they're going to keep losing to all but the worst teams. For added insult, playing protect the carry against one of the best carries the game has ever seen in Uzi isn't going to work. RNG know how to play against it and what it's weak to from years and years of playing that style themselves. RNG are going to run this team over. I'm going to take the Under in both games as well.


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Parlays: 

I'm going to be playing a suite of parlays on this slate because I strongly believe it will be a four sweep night. I'll be doing different iterations of 2, 3 and 4 way parlays on the sweeps and/or moneylines. I'd encourage you to do the same thing.


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