February 6th: LCK W1D2

February 5th Recap

LCK: 1 - 4 (-0.23 units)

Parlays: 0 - 0 (0 units)

NET:1 - 4 (-0.23 units)

KT opened their season with a very nice win and then proceeded to badly punt their draft in game two. I spoke about it on Twitter but I'm in full agreement with LS that blue side first pick Sett isn't smart. As strong as he can just be kited way too easily in a lot of scenarios and the "counter" picks to him like Kayle can be baited out a little bit too easily and swapped on, as we saw T1 do in the first series against DAMWON. Still got the +1.5 to make our wagers on that game even. T1 and DAMWON was looking an awful lot like a DAMWON 2-0 before Faker snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. T1 pulled a rabbit out of a hat in game two. They had zero business winning fights in this game and somehow found a way. I won't jump down DAMWON's throat for this one or anything since, again, we discussed Korea being very competitive this split, but I do want to mention that one of my primary concerns was clumsy mistakes and perhaps becoming a little less predictable, especially for Nuguri. In reality DAMWON played very well in this series, T1 just outmanuevered them and sometimes when two great teams meet that will happen and it's not anyones fault just impressive. I think that's what happened here but DAMWON are going to need to evolve or I don't see their ceiling as high as some of the other LCK squads this split.

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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

LCK Spring 2020 - Opening Day

Week 1 - Day 2

APK Prince +473 (+1.5 @ +162)

vs

Sandbox -855 (-1.5 @ -169)

So I discussed in my pre-season rankings that there is a clear cut top seven and bottom three but did place APK Prince in the D tier and Sandbox in the A- tier. By that logic this should be a slame dunk Sandbox 2-0 right? I did mention that I think APK Prince should at least be competitive with a few savvy veterans and that they might surprise some people that are expecting another Jin Air but I don't think Sandbox is the team they do it against. There is just too much continuity from last year that I expect Sandbox to, once again, hit the ground running as they have in their past two seasons. It's week one and I've loved taking big dogs early in the season in all leagues but this is one that I'll be on the other side for. That said I'll be tempering this wager because I think there's a chance APK Prince come out with something wild to open in their debut.

Spread: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ -169 (1.69 units)

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Afreeca -226 (-1.5 @ +163)

vs

Griffin +163 (+1.5 @ -171)

This is a classic spot where I'd love to take Griffin because, on paper, these two rosters are both tremendously talented, but as I discussed in my pre-season analysis of Griffin I've got huge question marks about coach H Dragon. Afreeca looked outstanding during KeSPA Cup and while that was a month ago now, this team clearly has immediate chemistry going on . I expect Griffin to earn a spot in the A- tier where I put them almost strictly on talent alone but I'm more skeptical of them than any of the other top seven due to coaching. If I'm proven wrong about that then we'll know pretty quickly but until then I'm avoiding taking them. It feels really chalky but I'm going to go a half unit on the Afreeca sweep. I normally avoid these "prove it to me first" spots but I really do see this as a fast start vs slow start situation and later in the season this will probably be a closer matchup if we find out H Dragon isn't a liability.

Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +163 (0.5 units)

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Parlays:

Parlay (2): Afreeca -1.5 + Sandbox -1.5 @ +197 (0.25 units)