February 20th Recap:
LCK: 3 - 1 (+1.35 units)
TOTAL: 3 - 1 (+1.35 units)
KT Rolster look like an absolute trainwreck right now and it's pretty depressing. This roster should not be this bad but there is a lack of fundamentals that veteran players should be capable of that we're just not seeing. I blame coaching and poor jungle play by both junglers but KT are officially in time out until they show me they know how to draft and play to a win condition. Feel bad for Kuro, dude is doing everything he can.
Griffin got a Soraka loss! Only the third on record this season. Actually though, Griffin were clinical in game one and Sword played a tremendous weakside game. DAMWON eventually won this series but you can still see signs of the overconfidence like Nuguri opting into a 2v1 and saving his flash only to flash late and die anyway. DAMWON are a talented but flawed team which is honestly no different than last year except the metagame is so so punishing to mistakes right now unless you're playing Ornn and Soraka. I'm not sure this is a stock up or down for either of these teams to be honest.
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Griffin got a Soraka loss! Only the third on record this season. Actually though, Griffin were clinical in game one and Sword played a tremendous weakside game. DAMWON eventually won this series but you can still see signs of the overconfidence like Nuguri opting into a 2v1 and saving his flash only to flash late and die anyway. DAMWON are a talented but flawed team which is honestly no different than last year except the metagame is so so punishing to mistakes right now unless you're playing Ornn and Soraka. I'm not sure this is a stock up or down for either of these teams to be honest.
--------------------------
CHECK OUT THE GOLD CARD PODCAST!
Available on Spotify, iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, and wherever you get your podcast fix!
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LCK (Korea)
Week 3 - Day 3
Afreeca -230 (-1.5 @ +159)
vs
Sandbox +165 (+1.5 @ -166)
Sandbox look like they're testing their different roster iterations right now and that's going to make me skeptical to take them until we see them settle in a little bit more. They look like one of the best teams in the world when they're ahead in games but they tend to struggle from behind or even at parity late in games. I don't think Sandbox are as bad as they've looked in their last two matches. A poor read on a patch or metagame and improperly prioritizing the wrong things in draft like they've been doing on a patch like this can be fatal even for good teams. I expect Sandbox to perform significantly better for the rest of the season assuming they've learned their lesson with Sett priority and actually settle on a consistent roster but until then we're taking good teams against them.
Moneyline: Afreeca -230 (1.15 units)
Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +159 (0.5 units)
(add on)
-----
Gen.G -145 (-1.5 @ +214)
vs
DragonX +107 (+1.5 @ -225)
You could argue that this is the top two teams in the LCK right now. They both are playing at a very high level, understand the way to draft and play right now, and make very few mistakes while also possessing the ability blow games open. I was high on DragonX going into the season and they've overperformed even my expectations with both rookie players Pyosik and Keria standing out. Keria might be the best support in the LCK as a rookie which is unbelievable. He's already hard carried a few games and we're only in week three.
This is pretty simple, I have these two teams rated about equally so we're just going to take the underdog here for a small wager. This could have crucial implications for playoff seeding so expect both teams to hold nothing back.
Moneyline: DragonX +107 (0.5 units)
(add on)
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Afreeca -230 (-1.5 @ +159)
vs
Sandbox +165 (+1.5 @ -166)
Sandbox look like they're testing their different roster iterations right now and that's going to make me skeptical to take them until we see them settle in a little bit more. They look like one of the best teams in the world when they're ahead in games but they tend to struggle from behind or even at parity late in games. I don't think Sandbox are as bad as they've looked in their last two matches. A poor read on a patch or metagame and improperly prioritizing the wrong things in draft like they've been doing on a patch like this can be fatal even for good teams. I expect Sandbox to perform significantly better for the rest of the season assuming they've learned their lesson with Sett priority and actually settle on a consistent roster but until then we're taking good teams against them.
Moneyline: Afreeca -230 (1.15 units)
Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +159 (0.5 units)
(add on)
Moneyline: Afreeca -210 (1.05 units)(5Dimes)
-----
Gen.G -145 (-1.5 @ +214)
vs
DragonX +107 (+1.5 @ -225)
You could argue that this is the top two teams in the LCK right now. They both are playing at a very high level, understand the way to draft and play right now, and make very few mistakes while also possessing the ability blow games open. I was high on DragonX going into the season and they've overperformed even my expectations with both rookie players Pyosik and Keria standing out. Keria might be the best support in the LCK as a rookie which is unbelievable. He's already hard carried a few games and we're only in week three.
This is pretty simple, I have these two teams rated about equally so we're just going to take the underdog here for a small wager. This could have crucial implications for playoff seeding so expect both teams to hold nothing back.
Moneyline: DragonX +107 (0.5 units)
(add on)
Moneyline: DragonX +120 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
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LEC (Europe)
Week 5 - Day 1
MAD Lions -128 vs Misfits -113
Schalke 04 -154 vs Vitality +108
G2 eSports -535 vs Excel +329
Fnatic -260 vs Rogue +172
SK Gaming +345 vs Origen -654
I wish we weren't getting so much juice on this (#eSportsBettingProblems) but I'm still going to take MAD Lions here. I've been impressed with Misfits and am giving them credit for what they've done so far but I think there are more ways to expose them than the LEC has shown. MAD Lions have been my kryptonite, I've gotten so many things wrong about this team but I actually think even with all the juice that there is some value on MAD here. Misfits are being severely overpriced because they beat G2 but as we discussed on the podcast G2 usually beat themselves more than they're actually beaten, it's the troll cycle of life. That said I do want to give Misfits some credit, G2 weren't exactly trolling in that game. Misfits beat them straight up. I'm selling high on Misfits. I don't see this team getting better than they are right now while I do see MAD steadily improving every week. Maybe I'm wrong but give me MAD Lions for half a unit here. Make sure you shop around, shops like Pinnacle have Misfits favored.
Moneyline: MAD Lions -128 (0.64 units)
(add on)
Schalke were my pre-season darlings and it took me a game or two longer than it should have to quit them but this is once again another overreaction to beating G2. Maybe Schalke get the morale boost but this team has still had a ton of issues and I could totally see Vitality getting one of their wins this season here. Regardless Schalke don't deserve to be laying -154 to anybody including Vitality. I'll take a piece of Vitality here. I don't think they're any worse than the other "bad" teams and they'll be running Steeelback over Jactroll who I consider a liability.
Moneyline: Vitality +108 (0.25 units)
(add on)
Moneyline: Vitality +115 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
G2 lost both games last week and people are freaking out. Everyone's gotta cool it. I like Excel a lot but we're actually getting suppressed value because of the 0-2 week by G2. I'll pass.
Excel/G2: No wager
I absolutely love Rogue in this spot. While I think there is a bit of a gap between G2 and Fnatic and Origen to Rogue and Excel, this line is a bit too heavy handed toward the favorite. Fnatic are good but I don't give them a 72% chance of winning this series (the implied odds of -260. This feels like a 55-45, maybe 60-40 if you like Fnatic more than I do which means we're getting quite a bit of value at Rogues implied 36.8% odds to win.
Moneyline: Rogue +172 (1 unit)
Origen don't lose to bad teams, only to good teams. They're too fundamentally sound to punt and don't take as many risks as teams like Fnatic and G2. They're kind of like old SK Telecom where you don't want to bet on upsets against them unless it's another great team.
SK/Origen: No wager
MAD Lions -128 vs Misfits -113
Schalke 04 -154 vs Vitality +108
G2 eSports -535 vs Excel +329
Fnatic -260 vs Rogue +172
SK Gaming +345 vs Origen -654
I wish we weren't getting so much juice on this (#eSportsBettingProblems) but I'm still going to take MAD Lions here. I've been impressed with Misfits and am giving them credit for what they've done so far but I think there are more ways to expose them than the LEC has shown. MAD Lions have been my kryptonite, I've gotten so many things wrong about this team but I actually think even with all the juice that there is some value on MAD here. Misfits are being severely overpriced because they beat G2 but as we discussed on the podcast G2 usually beat themselves more than they're actually beaten, it's the troll cycle of life. That said I do want to give Misfits some credit, G2 weren't exactly trolling in that game. Misfits beat them straight up. I'm selling high on Misfits. I don't see this team getting better than they are right now while I do see MAD steadily improving every week. Maybe I'm wrong but give me MAD Lions for half a unit here. Make sure you shop around, shops like Pinnacle have Misfits favored.
Moneyline: MAD Lions -128 (0.64 units)
(add on)
Moneyline: MAD Lions -110 (1.1 units)(5Dimes)
Schalke were my pre-season darlings and it took me a game or two longer than it should have to quit them but this is once again another overreaction to beating G2. Maybe Schalke get the morale boost but this team has still had a ton of issues and I could totally see Vitality getting one of their wins this season here. Regardless Schalke don't deserve to be laying -154 to anybody including Vitality. I'll take a piece of Vitality here. I don't think they're any worse than the other "bad" teams and they'll be running Steeelback over Jactroll who I consider a liability.
Moneyline: Vitality +108 (0.25 units)
(add on)
Moneyline: Vitality +115 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
G2 lost both games last week and people are freaking out. Everyone's gotta cool it. I like Excel a lot but we're actually getting suppressed value because of the 0-2 week by G2. I'll pass.
Excel/G2: No wager
I absolutely love Rogue in this spot. While I think there is a bit of a gap between G2 and Fnatic and Origen to Rogue and Excel, this line is a bit too heavy handed toward the favorite. Fnatic are good but I don't give them a 72% chance of winning this series (the implied odds of -260. This feels like a 55-45, maybe 60-40 if you like Fnatic more than I do which means we're getting quite a bit of value at Rogues implied 36.8% odds to win.
Moneyline: Rogue +172 (1 unit)
Origen don't lose to bad teams, only to good teams. They're too fundamentally sound to punt and don't take as many risks as teams like Fnatic and G2. They're kind of like old SK Telecom where you don't want to bet on upsets against them unless it's another great team.
SK/Origen: No wager
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Parlays:
none for now
none for now
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