February 14th Recap:
LCK: 0 - 2 (-2.4 units)
LEC: 3 - 1 (+3.81 units)
LEC: 3 - 1 (+3.81 units)
TOTAL: 3 - 3 (+1.41 units)
DAMWON clearly didn't show up to play in this match. Nuguri must not be looking at the map at all, or there is no communication happening, or he's just ignoring it out of arrogance but between that and an Athene's on Orianna when you have an Ivern on your team I was livid. The lack of preparation, both from an execution standpoint, but more importantly a conceptual standpoint is just unacceptable for a playoff team in the LCK. Gen.G looked really clean but DAMWON were honestly a terrible team on the day so I don't want to look too much into this match. Don't immediately go "Oh but Gen.G stomped DAMWON they must be good right?" Gen.G are good but this match isn't why. Don't use this as a data point other than knowing DAMWON are now capable of no-showing like this. Unacceptable.
APK vs Griffin was a weird one. We got to see Ikssu's Illaoi again which was fun but Tarzan looked unbelievable on the Gragas with some of the best cask ultimates I've seen in a row in one game. *golf clap* That said APK managed to get one here. I do think APK are going to be a competitive team as I've stated before so I'm not going to hold this against Griffin too much. It was just a weird series.
In the LEC we should have gone 4-0. Schalke either have players that aren't listening to their coaches or the worst coaching staff in the league, which is also the coaches fault. I play in a recreational league format, league with my team, there are silver and gold level teams in this that would know to turn off of the baron and kill either target in that spot. Even if you spend some time doing it, even if their jungler is dead. Aatrox can do too much in a fight like that if you let him and you absolutely did not have to. I understand maybe thinking "oh their jungler is dead" but as a professional player it's inexcusable to think you're going to get out of that without some casualties. That was the game in that play alone. It's just another in a long line of plays by Western teams that are honestly making me wonder why I shouldn't get back into coaching like I used to. It shows a lack of educating your players, testing them, and preparing them. As professionals that play two games a week there is absolutely zero excuse for not being prepared for fundamentals like this. These are the kinds of things you talk about over dinner, they aren't execution or skill based, they're all conceptual so there is absolutely no excuse for not meeting those expectations. It's embarrassing.
Anyway... before I get more heated ...
APK vs Griffin was a weird one. We got to see Ikssu's Illaoi again which was fun but Tarzan looked unbelievable on the Gragas with some of the best cask ultimates I've seen in a row in one game. *golf clap* That said APK managed to get one here. I do think APK are going to be a competitive team as I've stated before so I'm not going to hold this against Griffin too much. It was just a weird series.
In the LEC we should have gone 4-0. Schalke either have players that aren't listening to their coaches or the worst coaching staff in the league, which is also the coaches fault. I play in a recreational league format, league with my team, there are silver and gold level teams in this that would know to turn off of the baron and kill either target in that spot. Even if you spend some time doing it, even if their jungler is dead. Aatrox can do too much in a fight like that if you let him and you absolutely did not have to. I understand maybe thinking "oh their jungler is dead" but as a professional player it's inexcusable to think you're going to get out of that without some casualties. That was the game in that play alone. It's just another in a long line of plays by Western teams that are honestly making me wonder why I shouldn't get back into coaching like I used to. It shows a lack of educating your players, testing them, and preparing them. As professionals that play two games a week there is absolutely zero excuse for not being prepared for fundamentals like this. These are the kinds of things you talk about over dinner, they aren't execution or skill based, they're all conceptual so there is absolutely no excuse for not meeting those expectations. It's embarrassing.
Anyway... before I get more heated ...
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LCK (Korea)
Week 2 - Day 4
DragonX -152 (-1.5 @ +213)
vs
Afreeca Freecs +112 (+1.5 @ -224)
DragonX look really good. They were my #1 before the season but as I've stated a bunch of times already, Korea is full of parity. So the question here is whether or not we think there is value in either of these teams at this number.
We got to see All In's debut on, ironically, the very all-in Pantheon mid against APK. I don't want to completely throw out the data point "because it's APK" but it does earn a little bit less weight than normal. Some of you may be wondering, Why is this even a question when we bet APK? The number was why we bet APK. There were a number of really close team fights in the first game which made it very entertaining but they did earn a win in game two with our favorite underdog game stealer, you guessed it, SORAKA. 7-1... 7-1...
I'm a bit skeptical of taking DragonX here even though I think they'll end up #1 eventually because they have faced a relatively easy schedule but it's just so difficult to not be tremendously impressed with the adaptation against two bizarre Hanwha drafts as well as incredible individual plays by the two rookies Keria and Pyosik to break both of those games wide open. When you looked at this roster before the season started the two biggest question marks were those two rookies and they're the ones that have been impressing the most on a tema with Chovy and Deft... think about that for a second.
I'm going with DragonX but only to win half a unit. It's nothing against Afreeca at all and honestly I wouldn't be surprised at an Afreeca win as they've been playing pretty well also but consider this my flag planted on DragonX as the best team in Korea. I may take a taste of the OVER 2.5 once again in this one but I'm waiting to see if I can get a plus number somewhere.
Moneyline: DragonX -152 (0.76 units)
Likely on the OVER 2.5 maps if I can find a decent + number.
We got to see All In's debut on, ironically, the very all-in Pantheon mid against APK. I don't want to completely throw out the data point "because it's APK" but it does earn a little bit less weight than normal. Some of you may be wondering, Why is this even a question when we bet APK? The number was why we bet APK. There were a number of really close team fights in the first game which made it very entertaining but they did earn a win in game two with our favorite underdog game stealer, you guessed it, SORAKA. 7-1... 7-1...
I'm a bit skeptical of taking DragonX here even though I think they'll end up #1 eventually because they have faced a relatively easy schedule but it's just so difficult to not be tremendously impressed with the adaptation against two bizarre Hanwha drafts as well as incredible individual plays by the two rookies Keria and Pyosik to break both of those games wide open. When you looked at this roster before the season started the two biggest question marks were those two rookies and they're the ones that have been impressing the most on a tema with Chovy and Deft... think about that for a second.
I'm going with DragonX but only to win half a unit. It's nothing against Afreeca at all and honestly I wouldn't be surprised at an Afreeca win as they've been playing pretty well also but consider this my flag planted on DragonX as the best team in Korea. I may take a taste of the OVER 2.5 once again in this one but I'm waiting to see if I can get a plus number somewhere.
Moneyline: DragonX -152 (0.76 units)
Likely on the OVER 2.5 maps if I can find a decent + number.
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Sandbox -239 (-1.5 @ +159)
vs
Hanwha Life +172 (+1.5 @ -166)
As much as I love Hanwha and as much as people want to hate on Sandbox for losing to "a weak Griffin team" and throwing more than Peyton Manning I'm going with the 2-0 here. I respect Hanwha but Sandbox are a significantly better team. We've also seen a number of the various "whacky" strategies that Hanwha have busted out already and I have to think that they're running out of practical ideas. DragonX solved it, albeit with some sick individual plays but I think now with the script out there and some preparation that can be made that Sandbox will be prepared for anything.
The rub here is that if you think Hanwha can jump out to a lead, Sandbox have been downright terrible from behind this season, and somewhat last year. They are an outstanding team with a lead and they'll close in clinical fashion but they tend to struggle from a deficit so if you think Hanwha can get a lead and want to approach this from the angle of the +1.5 I don't hate that. I'm actually going to lay the moneyline here with a smaller fraction on the 2-0 than the normal 2/3-1/3 split I usually do.
Moneyline: Sandbox -239 (2.39 units)
Spread: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ +159 (0.5 units)
The rub here is that if you think Hanwha can jump out to a lead, Sandbox have been downright terrible from behind this season, and somewhat last year. They are an outstanding team with a lead and they'll close in clinical fashion but they tend to struggle from a deficit so if you think Hanwha can get a lead and want to approach this from the angle of the +1.5 I don't hate that. I'm actually going to lay the moneyline here with a smaller fraction on the 2-0 than the normal 2/3-1/3 split I usually do.
Moneyline: Sandbox -239 (2.39 units)
Spread: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ +159 (0.5 units)
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LEC (Europe)
Week 4 - Day 2
Misfits -325 vs Vitality +250
SK Gaming +197 vs Rogue -287
G2 eSports -1408 vs Schalke +593
Origen -313 vs Excel +222
MAD Lions +160 vs Fnatic -234
I'm going to take a stab at the let down spot for Misfits after that G2 victory yesterday although I wish it was literally any other team besides Vitality.
Moneyline: Vitality +250 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
I'm actually tempted to lay the big favorite with Rogue but I'll be including it in a parlay instead.
SK/Rogue: No wager but will put Rogue in parlay
G2 vs Schalke just way out of range. You can get Schalke +1020 on 5Dimes. I'll try it for a tenth of a unit on the off chance that G2 screw around for another day in a row but maybe a kill spread is where you want to look if they're available to you.
Moneyline: Schalke +1020 (0.1 units)(5Dimes)
Excel presents the best value on the board today. Origen are most certainly the better team and rarely lose to teams I dub worse than they are but I think Excel are only about a half tier behind them in overall quality so I think this +240 price (5Dimes) is a bit too much to turn down. 240 is 29.4% implied odds, I think this is more like a 60-40 matchup so I'll take the dogs here for a unit especially since I consider them a pretty good team.
Moneyline: Excel +240 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
Fnatic will be the other leg of my parlay here. I'm also going to take the moneyline. It's a lot of exposure on them but I really think this number is actually a value for Fnatic. Everyone is hyping up MAD Lions and while I'm confident they'll continue to grow and be a good team (and one I'll hate betting over the course of the season) I don't think they're remotely close to the caliber of the big boys in the LEC yet. Fnatic are going to little brother the hell out of this team today. Fnatic to win half a unit to go along with our parlay listed below.
Moneyline: Fnatic -234 (1.17 units)
SK Gaming +197 vs Rogue -287
G2 eSports -1408 vs Schalke +593
Origen -313 vs Excel +222
MAD Lions +160 vs Fnatic -234
I'm going to take a stab at the let down spot for Misfits after that G2 victory yesterday although I wish it was literally any other team besides Vitality.
Moneyline: Vitality +250 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
I'm actually tempted to lay the big favorite with Rogue but I'll be including it in a parlay instead.
SK/Rogue: No wager but will put Rogue in parlay
G2 vs Schalke just way out of range. You can get Schalke +1020 on 5Dimes. I'll try it for a tenth of a unit on the off chance that G2 screw around for another day in a row but maybe a kill spread is where you want to look if they're available to you.
Moneyline: Schalke +1020 (0.1 units)(5Dimes)
Excel presents the best value on the board today. Origen are most certainly the better team and rarely lose to teams I dub worse than they are but I think Excel are only about a half tier behind them in overall quality so I think this +240 price (5Dimes) is a bit too much to turn down. 240 is 29.4% implied odds, I think this is more like a 60-40 matchup so I'll take the dogs here for a unit especially since I consider them a pretty good team.
Moneyline: Excel +240 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
Fnatic will be the other leg of my parlay here. I'm also going to take the moneyline. It's a lot of exposure on them but I really think this number is actually a value for Fnatic. Everyone is hyping up MAD Lions and while I'm confident they'll continue to grow and be a good team (and one I'll hate betting over the course of the season) I don't think they're remotely close to the caliber of the big boys in the LEC yet. Fnatic are going to little brother the hell out of this team today. Fnatic to win half a unit to go along with our parlay listed below.
Moneyline: Fnatic -234 (1.17 units)
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LCS (North America)
Week 4 - Day 1
Immortals +236 vs Liquid -350
Team Solo Mid +160 vs Cloud 9 -234
CLG -154 vs Golden Guardians +108
Dignitas -128 vs 100 Thieves -113
It looks like Broxah is going to play for Liquid. I'd imagine there is a jolt of energy and confidence as he's ready to play and his teammates finally get a chance to show whats up. There's a chance they struggle a bit in his first NA stage game. Shernfire hasn't been the reason they're losing so if you want to take the narrative based "rust" or "no chemistry yet" angle I don't hate a small wager on Immortals. I'll be passing this though.
IMT/TL: No wager
Cloud 9 look like the best team in NA right now but I don't think TSM is as far behind them as this line indicates. The entire Gold Card Podcast indicated that we were interested in TSM as dogs at more or less anything in the low 100s, we can get 170 at 5Dimes do I'm going to fire for a unit. These two teams are way closer to even than these odds imply.
Moneyline: TSM +170 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
This CLG/GG line has moved all over the place so I'd encourage you to shop around. As it currently stands I still don't trust CLG but I don't trust GGs either and we're not getting any particularly good value on either side. I'll pass.
CLG/GG: No wager
Similar to CLG/GG, with double - odds (damn esports juice...) I just don't see any value in this spot. I'd lean toward Dignitas but I'd probably take whichever team gets + odds if you can find them anywhere.
Dig/100T: No wager
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Immortals +236 vs Liquid -350
Team Solo Mid +160 vs Cloud 9 -234
CLG -154 vs Golden Guardians +108
Dignitas -128 vs 100 Thieves -113
It looks like Broxah is going to play for Liquid. I'd imagine there is a jolt of energy and confidence as he's ready to play and his teammates finally get a chance to show whats up. There's a chance they struggle a bit in his first NA stage game. Shernfire hasn't been the reason they're losing so if you want to take the narrative based "rust" or "no chemistry yet" angle I don't hate a small wager on Immortals. I'll be passing this though.
IMT/TL: No wager
Cloud 9 look like the best team in NA right now but I don't think TSM is as far behind them as this line indicates. The entire Gold Card Podcast indicated that we were interested in TSM as dogs at more or less anything in the low 100s, we can get 170 at 5Dimes do I'm going to fire for a unit. These two teams are way closer to even than these odds imply.
Moneyline: TSM +170 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
This CLG/GG line has moved all over the place so I'd encourage you to shop around. As it currently stands I still don't trust CLG but I don't trust GGs either and we're not getting any particularly good value on either side. I'll pass.
CLG/GG: No wager
Similar to CLG/GG, with double - odds (damn esports juice...) I just don't see any value in this spot. I'd lean toward Dignitas but I'd probably take whichever team gets + odds if you can find them anywhere.
Dig/100T: No wager
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Parlays:
Parlay (2): Rogue ML + Fnatic ML @ -128 (1.28 units)
Parlay (2): Rogue ML + Fnatic ML @ -128 (1.28 units)
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