February 14th: LCK, LEC

February 12th and 13th Recap:

LCK: 5 - 4 (+4.465 units)

TOTAL: 5 - 4 (+4.465 units)

We had ourselves a pretty great past two days in the LCK! This morning we missed on KT Rolster even though T1 were outdrafted once again in game one but just executed much better, but we did hit on DragonX who quickly adapted to a very weird Tryndamere funnel draft by Hanwha. DragonX weren't fooled and Keria and Pyosik were the stars that broke these games wide open. Our DragonX futures are looking mighty fine right about now with the two biggest question marks we had going into the season playing the way they are. Former LCK and LEC player Wadid has been on the analyst desk for the Korean broadcast and he thinks that Keria "might be the best support in Korea" and that "he doesn't play like a rookie" before going on and gushing about his mature understanding of what needs to happen on both a micro and macro level to solve a puzzle like the Hanwha draft this morning. We also hit on a nice +190 Griffin moneyline against Sandbox but in my opinion we got extremely lucky. Sandbox just keep finding ways to throw games. I even put a poll out on Twitter about it: 

Who throws harder?

— Gelati (@GelatiLOL) February 12, 2020

Sandbox look like such a clean team most of the time but they've had so many of these moments this season that they're beginning to remind me a bit of SKT early last season. Hopefully they can clean a few of these things up, I don't see why they couldn't. The one thing I've been doing a good job about this week is reducing to half a unit based on confidence. This morning was a good example. I thought it was totally reasonable for KT, who haven't looked bad, to take a game off of T1 potentially off of a botched draft alone but that isn't enough to warrant a full unit endorsement. I need to remain consistent in this approach.

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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)

LCK (Korea)

Week 2 - Day 3

Gen.G -178 (-1.5 @ +183)

vs

 DAMWON +129 (+1.5 @ -191)

This is a strange position for a few reasons. DAMWON have largely underwhelmed thus far but they also look exactly like the team they did last year, they just happened to have been punished for it in their first couple series so the small sample size effect is amplified here. This team should have lost to APK in game one. If they did how would people be looking at this match? DAMWON were a clumsy team all last year, this isn't new. I can't help but think DAMWON are due for some positive regression but the fact that they play like a bull in a china shop leaves them exposed in certain situations.

Gen.G have looked ridiculously clean but their most difficult test was Griffin and they dropped a game to KT Rolster. Gen.G look very good, very clean, and like they have a firm grasp on the metagame right now it's just a matter of seeing more at this point.

I'm going to be on DAMWON here for a few reasons. The first has very little to do with them and mostly to do with line value. This early in the season, unless I see something drastic I tend to still weight my pre-season read on these teams very heavily until we get more film and information. I had these teams both right next to each other toward the top of the table in the crowded and competitive top of the LCK. I'll mention once again that unless there is a severe mismatch strategically or individually that I'd be preferring underdogs in the current state of the game and preferring underdogs in the LCK matchups between the top teams because I feel as if they're all fairly even. This line has also ballooned to over +130 and toward higher numbers at some books compared even earlier this aftrernoon when it was at +120 for DAMWON.

Second, I think DAMWON make an excellent underdog in general. They're extremely confident and their elite individual abilities combined with more than a year of building chemistry create memorable and intimidating spike performances sometimes regardless of the opponent. In so many words DAMWON are capable of beating anybody in the world on any day.

Third, for as much as myself and fellow sharp analysts think that DAMWON have looked shaky I think we'd all agree that this is one of those "turn on" types of teams. We saw T1 do that today after a really rough week one they completely whooped KT Rolster. There's a chance DAMWON had a bit of a wake up call and elevate in this spot. It's like they've had a bad read on the game they just haven't been executing well. Plus, as we mentioned, this teams' spike performances tend to be utter dominations. Would not be surprised at all to see DAMWON 2-0 here not that I think it's the most likely outcome.

I do think this is one of the rare spots where I'll be on the over 2.5 maps. Usually this is a market I avoid because I've found that there isn't a strong correlation between evenly matched teams and three game series. A 2-0 can be a close match even if it doesn't look like is. I expect this to be a slugfest and given the current state of the game I do believe we're going to see a lot of three game series between the good teams unless someone has distinct stylistic advantage. Typically this isn't the case as the numbers tend to be cooked toward the over instead of the under on this market. However we've seen 8 out of 14 series go to three games so far in the LCK and until we see distinct advantages developed by the stronger teams and changes by Riot to the state of the game I think a lot of matches are much closer to 50/50 than normal given the scaling nature of League of Legends and to get +100 right now feels better than it usually does. I also think that while the DAMWON +1.5 covers the other outcome of a DAMWON 2-0, the best price of -191is not one I'm willing to pay up for. I think the likelihood of a 2-1 for either team is higher than normal in for this series and metagame.

Just a brief side note, the reason I haven't been bringing a lot of the statistics based analysis to the table so far this season is simply sample size. The numbers can lie a lot this early in the year where one game makes up a huge percentage of the total so I tend to wait until further into the season to compare.

Moneyline: DAMWON +140 (1 unit)(5Dimes)

Total: OVER 2.5 maps played @ +100 (1.4 units)(5Dimes)

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Griffin -685 (-1.5 @ -136)

vs

APK Prince +388 (+1.5 @ +130)

APK have been surprisingly impressive for the team myself and most people had slated as the last place team in the LCK this season. I say that and I was actually higher on them than a lot of people saying that we almost definitely wouldn't have another Jin Air level bad team. This team is competitive for the time being at least. They're throwing punches and taking the fight to better teams which is exactly what you want in a big dog. 

Griffin have been slowly piecing things together and managed to get their first match win in their last match against Sandbox with the help of a few tremendous throws by Nolan Ryan... I mean Sandbox. We mentioned it in our Griffin ML selection for that match that this team isn't as bad as their record at all. Again the parity at the top of the table is going to lead to some really valuable underdog lines until the season plays itself out more. You're going to have good teams that look bad in the standings. WATCH THE FILM! 

This feels like a spot to take APK but I'll actually be avoiding this match. Just for comparison, against DAMWON we got an APK +1.5 maps priced at +310 and now it's down to +130? I'm treating the top seven as mostly equal teams so that's losing a ton of value. Do I think there is a 43.5% (the implied probability of +130) for APK to take a game in this series? It's probably about that number. I don't see any value in this spot. I wouldn't hate a small taste of the moneyline if you think APK have a chance to take one game the +388 isn't unreasonable but I think the gap between these two teams is large enough that I'm going to just pass.

No wager

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LEC (Europe)

Week 4 - Day 1

Origen -193 vs MAD Lions +135

SK Gaming +118 vs Excel eSports -167

Fnatic -1000 vs Vitality +494

Rogue -369 vs Schalke 04 +246

G2 eSports -654 vs Misfits +345

We talked quite a bit on the podcast about how the LEC is shaking out this season, particularly the middle of the table. I'm limited on time so I'll skip diving too hard into any of these for now and just give the quick hits.

If I can get a slightly better number on Origen I want it. MAD Lions have been the bettors nightmare this season as a team that is overrated AND overpriced but also one that I think isn't a bad team. I said last week that I'd be avoiding them but I don't see them continuing to get lucky against a clean, by the book team like Origen so this is one spot I like the favorite. 

Moneyline: Origen -185 (1.85 units)(5Dimes)

I have absolutely no idea why this Excel/SK line is even close. Is it because they're only one win apart? Excel is a full two tiers above SK Gaming to me. This should have been my pick of the week during the podcast.

Moneyline: Excel -160 (3.2 units)(5Dimes)

Pass on Fnatic/Vitality.

I'm going to take a quarter unit shot on Schalke with the news that Innaxe is now playing ADC. I've been a rather staunch defender of Forg1ven but the recent comments and his overall performance this season have been pretty terrible. Maybe this is a change this team needs. I do think Rogue are quite good though. This is more of a narrative long shot hence the limited exposure. This line was +180 before the news and we're getting almost 70 cents value for what should be an upgrade given how poor Forg1ven was through six games. There's also the "fresh start" narrative for a team that was struggling bringing in someone to bring some new energy and mix things up.

Moneyline: Schalke +315 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)

John @TheeSportsPlug has what he's called the G2 troll cycle. G2 are clearly the best team in the league and one of if not the best team in the world and when they lose domestically it's rarely anything to do with the opponent and more to do with them. G2 tend to start seriously, smash people and then try some weird wonky pick to style on people, and then they keep pushing the boundaries until they "go too far" down the rabbit hole, punt a game badly, and it resets. I agree with John that this weekend feels a little bit primed for that to happen especially given the suggestion at some weird funnel compositions by the LCK this week that G2 might try their hand at. This is purely narrative although it's backed by some historical context. I'll be taking a quarter unit on both G2 opponents this weekend for this reason.

Moneyline: Misfits +425 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)