February 28th Recap:
LCK: 1 - 0 (+1.0 units)
LEC: 0 - 2 (-1.5 units)
Parlays: 1 - 0 (+1.0 units)
TOTAL: 2 - 2 (+0.5 units)
This was the chalkiest LCK day I've seen in awhile. We saw Soraka lose multiple games, Ornn lose, and the heavy heavy favorites dominate as expected. This metagame is way too good for T1's style of playing. I know it's boring but this style of minimizing losses and mistakes is just perfect for that team and how they like to play. It's the most boring kind of scary.
Europe continues to be a favorite driven league with all five winning today. While that may not be a big surprise it does somewhat encapsulate this season with favorites now moving to a whopping 40-15 through 5.5 weeks.
For those wondering about the LPL scrims league: Nitrogen is offering odds on it but I'm not messing with any of this. Subs, people not caring, too much yolo. If you're going to play it I wouldn't autoamtically play dogs which is another reason to just avoid it altogether and just watch.
PCS, the new combined LMS/SEA league starts tonight with a full slate of 5 games. I haven't done any real research into this league outside of a brief look over the rosters. JTeam, AHQ, and Talon stick out to me as the best "looking" rosters and the books seem to agree with that based on these initial offerings. I will say though, with a best of one format and the propensity of the non-LMS teams to more or less play professional solo queue style games with over a kill per minute, that a lot of random losses are just going to happen from snowballing if everyone gets sucked into this style. It's going to be interesting to see how this develops but I don't hate some small stakes shots at the underdogs here simply because of the unknowns and the stylistic preferences of the non-LMS teams.
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LCK (Korea)
Week 4 - Day 4
Hanwha Life -181 (-1.5 @ +160)
vs
KT Rolster +123 (+1.5 @ -234)
Trends:
Hanwha Life are 1-0 as favorites with their win coming 2-1 vs Griffin
Hanwha Life are 2-2 in their last four.
KT are 2-4 as underdogs with 2-1 wins against Sandbox and Afreeca
KT have won their last two after starting off 0-5
Tale of the Tape:
Hanwha:
0.98 damage per gold, 44% first blood, 50% first tower
41.6% of wards cleared 3.9 wards per min
Differentials - Gold @ 15 -1108, CS @ 15 -22.3
KT Rolster:
0.89 damage per gold, 50% first blood, 50% first tower
47.7% of wards cleared, 3.9 wards per min
Differentials - Gold @ 15 -320, CS @ 15 -15.8
Trying out a new format, we'll see how many hours in the day I have to keep this one up heh
This line went absolutely ballistic since we recorded the podcast on Wednesday night where it was KT +200 over at Bet365 where I take the lines for the podcast from. I actually still think there's some value at +123. This should be an even money series. This corrected but Hanwha are being slightly overrated because of their win against first place T1 in week one. Of late I actually think KT have looked like the better team. They've developed an identity as the tempo team the past few weeks showing a willingness to go all-in on early and mid game spikes. While it might not be the optimal way to play the game right now, it has proven effective against the middle and bottom of the table teams that have shown a lack of discipline in abstaining when they have superior scaling.
Look, it's linear and predictable but I actually think what KT is doing is going to work out well against the bottom half teams and it makes sense that they've gone on a bit of a run. KT have the better players in this series, have looked better of late, and I think both these teams have shown some questionable decision making. This should be an even money series. I'll be on KT and the KT -1.5. Hanwha haven't proven that they should be favored by this much over anybody besides maybe APK and even then I'm not sure. It's not the value we had on Wednesday but serves me right for now striking then.
Moneyline: KT Rolster +135 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
Spread: KT -1.5 maps @ +355 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
-----
Afreeca Freecs -181 (-1.5 @ +160)
vs
DAMWON +123 (+1.5 @ -234)
Trends:
Afreeca are 4-1 as favorites straight up with their only loss coming 1-2 to KT Rolster
Afreeca are 1-3 in their last four
Afreeca have played all three games in 6 out of 7 series this split
DWG are 0-2 as underdogs straight up with losses to GenG and T1
DWG are 3-1 in their last four
Tale of the Tape:
Afreeca:
1.09 damage per gold, 70% first blood, 50% first tower
49.7% of wards cleared 4.1 wards per min
Differentials - Gold @ 15 -113, CS @ 15 -5.3
DAMWON:
1.001 damage per gold, 47% first blood, 41% first tower
47.9% of wards cleared, 3.7 wards per min
Differentials - Gold @ 15 +98, CS @ 15 +15.9
You know for two teams that have been "massive disappointments" so far, DAMWON inparticular, these teams are both 4-3 and would currently be in playoffs. If you look at the numbers Afreeca look like a better team. Their vision control has been outstanding and that's with a some player swaps happening which is even more impressive.
I'm taking a film based approach to this handicap and there is a bit of a narrative involved to bear with me here. DAMWON aren't built for the kind of League of Legends that patch 10.3, and likely 10.4 too, demands. They're just too sloppy and arrogant. They believe they can outplay every situation but both the champions that are in meta right now and the impact of any mistakes don't encourage that type of game play. DAMWON easily could have lost game three against Hanwha. If that had happened where would this line be?
I also think that this is a poor player by player matchup for DAMWON. Kiin is a better all-around player than Nuguri, he's more disciplined, more versatile, and in the current state of League of Legends his surgical precision and calculated style is perfect while Nuguri's more risk-oriented approach is easily punished, as we've seen by many teams that are worse than Afreeca. ShowMaker has struggled a lot this season which is a bummer based on what we saw from him last year. Really all of DAMWON besides Nuguri in his pop-off games have been struggling while Afreeca have been thriving with or without Kiin. Kiin is already a tough matchup for DAMWON's best player but if he's put into a neutralizing role he'll embrace that.
It's really bizarre to me that this line is so heavy handed toward Afreeca. Based on records these teams are very similar, based on recent results DWG look better, but the film says otherwise to me. I think a lot of people are going to look at that and say "This is DAMWON easy right?" I actually think this line is accurate. This metagame has been a welcome home for underdogs but DAMWON's approach to the game is so sub-optimal that it requires hero performances by it's individuals or poor performances by their opponents for them to get wins. I don't think we'll see either here. DAMWON haven't beaten a a "good" (top half) team this season. They took a game off of T1 in week one but against Gen.G they were completely obliterated scoring only 5 kills in two games. I don't think Afreeca are quite on that level but they're the next best thing in the LCK right now. Afreeca roll.
Moneyline: Afreeca -150 (1.5 units)(5Dimes)
Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +175 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
Hanwha Life -181 (-1.5 @ +160)
vs
KT Rolster +123 (+1.5 @ -234)
Trends:
Hanwha Life are 1-0 as favorites with their win coming 2-1 vs Griffin
Hanwha Life are 2-2 in their last four.
KT are 2-4 as underdogs with 2-1 wins against Sandbox and Afreeca
KT have won their last two after starting off 0-5
Tale of the Tape:
Hanwha:
0.98 damage per gold, 44% first blood, 50% first tower
41.6% of wards cleared 3.9 wards per min
Differentials - Gold @ 15 -1108, CS @ 15 -22.3
KT Rolster:
0.89 damage per gold, 50% first blood, 50% first tower
47.7% of wards cleared, 3.9 wards per min
Differentials - Gold @ 15 -320, CS @ 15 -15.8
Trying out a new format, we'll see how many hours in the day I have to keep this one up heh
This line went absolutely ballistic since we recorded the podcast on Wednesday night where it was KT +200 over at Bet365 where I take the lines for the podcast from. I actually still think there's some value at +123. This should be an even money series. This corrected but Hanwha are being slightly overrated because of their win against first place T1 in week one. Of late I actually think KT have looked like the better team. They've developed an identity as the tempo team the past few weeks showing a willingness to go all-in on early and mid game spikes. While it might not be the optimal way to play the game right now, it has proven effective against the middle and bottom of the table teams that have shown a lack of discipline in abstaining when they have superior scaling.
Look, it's linear and predictable but I actually think what KT is doing is going to work out well against the bottom half teams and it makes sense that they've gone on a bit of a run. KT have the better players in this series, have looked better of late, and I think both these teams have shown some questionable decision making. This should be an even money series. I'll be on KT and the KT -1.5. Hanwha haven't proven that they should be favored by this much over anybody besides maybe APK and even then I'm not sure. It's not the value we had on Wednesday but serves me right for now striking then.
Moneyline: KT Rolster +135 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
Spread: KT -1.5 maps @ +355 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
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Afreeca Freecs -181 (-1.5 @ +160)
vs
DAMWON +123 (+1.5 @ -234)
Trends:
Afreeca are 4-1 as favorites straight up with their only loss coming 1-2 to KT Rolster
Afreeca are 1-3 in their last four
Afreeca have played all three games in 6 out of 7 series this split
DWG are 0-2 as underdogs straight up with losses to GenG and T1
DWG are 3-1 in their last four
Tale of the Tape:
Afreeca:
1.09 damage per gold, 70% first blood, 50% first tower
49.7% of wards cleared 4.1 wards per min
Differentials - Gold @ 15 -113, CS @ 15 -5.3
DAMWON:
1.001 damage per gold, 47% first blood, 41% first tower
47.9% of wards cleared, 3.7 wards per min
Differentials - Gold @ 15 +98, CS @ 15 +15.9
You know for two teams that have been "massive disappointments" so far, DAMWON inparticular, these teams are both 4-3 and would currently be in playoffs. If you look at the numbers Afreeca look like a better team. Their vision control has been outstanding and that's with a some player swaps happening which is even more impressive.
I'm taking a film based approach to this handicap and there is a bit of a narrative involved to bear with me here. DAMWON aren't built for the kind of League of Legends that patch 10.3, and likely 10.4 too, demands. They're just too sloppy and arrogant. They believe they can outplay every situation but both the champions that are in meta right now and the impact of any mistakes don't encourage that type of game play. DAMWON easily could have lost game three against Hanwha. If that had happened where would this line be?
I also think that this is a poor player by player matchup for DAMWON. Kiin is a better all-around player than Nuguri, he's more disciplined, more versatile, and in the current state of League of Legends his surgical precision and calculated style is perfect while Nuguri's more risk-oriented approach is easily punished, as we've seen by many teams that are worse than Afreeca. ShowMaker has struggled a lot this season which is a bummer based on what we saw from him last year. Really all of DAMWON besides Nuguri in his pop-off games have been struggling while Afreeca have been thriving with or without Kiin. Kiin is already a tough matchup for DAMWON's best player but if he's put into a neutralizing role he'll embrace that.
It's really bizarre to me that this line is so heavy handed toward Afreeca. Based on records these teams are very similar, based on recent results DWG look better, but the film says otherwise to me. I think a lot of people are going to look at that and say "This is DAMWON easy right?" I actually think this line is accurate. This metagame has been a welcome home for underdogs but DAMWON's approach to the game is so sub-optimal that it requires hero performances by it's individuals or poor performances by their opponents for them to get wins. I don't think we'll see either here. DAMWON haven't beaten a a "good" (top half) team this season. They took a game off of T1 in week one but against Gen.G they were completely obliterated scoring only 5 kills in two games. I don't think Afreeca are quite on that level but they're the next best thing in the LCK right now. Afreeca roll.
Moneyline: Afreeca -150 (1.5 units)(5Dimes)
Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +175 (0.5 units)(5Dimes)
LEC (Europe)
Week 6 - Day 2
Excel +147 vs MAD -207
Origen -234 vs Rogue +160
Vitality +444 vs G2 eSports -885
SK Gaming +246 vs Misfits -369
Schalke +329 vs Fnatic -535
I wanted to touch on a concept about perception and how it pertains to the current metagame while I was discussing that on the podcast this weekend but it slipped my mind at the time. The premise here is that, more or less, it's really REALLY easy to look bad in this current metagame. When you have games where there are fewer impactful events happening, every one of those events becomes that much more important. As a result, errors are magnified and our minds tend to overreact. We've seen great teams lose games off of one dumb mistake in this meta very frequently so I'd caution against overreacting to a bad looking loss because, as I said, it's quite easy to "look awful" in this meta.
This of course is in reference to Excel's "embarrassing" loss yesterday. Do I think this was a case of looking worse than it actually was? A little. Excel made some really poor decisions but I do think claims of "they're trash" are being way overexaggerated. Look, the game got away from them. They made some mistakes. I'm not passing final judgement on one bad looking single game. My idea was to fire on Excel against evenly matched teams in back to back days and that hasn't changed. My evaluation of this team hasn't drastically changed based on one game and yours shouldn't either.
Moneyline: Excel +170 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
Origen definitely got away with one on multiple fronts yesterday against Schalke but I also think some credit should be given to the fact that, in my opinion which is why I presume you're here, they were severely outdrafted and managed to problem solve on the fly. That's not a very Origen thing. When playing sterilized League of Legends, Origen are excellent, maybe even the best team in Europe. It was kind of cool seeing them figure it out on the fly like this. It's a different look for them. Now it was against Schalke and while I don't think they're a bottom dweller like Vitality or SK anymore, I do think we could maybe question that they got outdrafted and outplayed by Schalke for the most part.
We got to see Rogue beat Excel but as I mentioned above it's very easy to get blown out or have a poor looking final score. It was a poor performance but not nearly as drastic as everyone is saying and for Rogue it wasn't quite as dominant as people are going to say either. That said, Rogue did look good. My gut tells me Origen "get right" here. Historically they haven't been a team that loses to even slightly weaker teams. There's been some overreaction to this depending on the book you look at. We're going to lay to win half a unit on Origen even after a shakey performance yesterday by them and a "great" performance by Rogue. Think about what these odds would have been before yesterday's games. Give me Origen.
Moneyline: Origen -175 (0.875 units)(5Dimes)
I'm not messing with teams against G2 just like I discussed yesterday. The G2 Troll Cycle of Life hasn't reached that point yet.
No wager: G2/VIT
SK look like the worst team in the league to me even though Vitality have a worse record. Vitality are at least attacking, SK have been sort of just rolling over. I just don't see a lot of redeeming characteristics to this team. That said I also think Misfits, while admittedly better than I thought this season, are still overrated so I won't be laying the -369, especially in a meta with so many ridiculously powerful champion picks to manage.
No wager: MSF/SK
Schalke looked pretty good against Origen yesterday and that they're slowly figuring themselves out as a team. They aren't going to be a free win the rest of the way but I also think Fnatic are enough better that I'm just going to pass on this game.
No wager: FNC/S04
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Excel +147 vs MAD -207
Origen -234 vs Rogue +160
Vitality +444 vs G2 eSports -885
SK Gaming +246 vs Misfits -369
Schalke +329 vs Fnatic -535
I wanted to touch on a concept about perception and how it pertains to the current metagame while I was discussing that on the podcast this weekend but it slipped my mind at the time. The premise here is that, more or less, it's really REALLY easy to look bad in this current metagame. When you have games where there are fewer impactful events happening, every one of those events becomes that much more important. As a result, errors are magnified and our minds tend to overreact. We've seen great teams lose games off of one dumb mistake in this meta very frequently so I'd caution against overreacting to a bad looking loss because, as I said, it's quite easy to "look awful" in this meta.
This of course is in reference to Excel's "embarrassing" loss yesterday. Do I think this was a case of looking worse than it actually was? A little. Excel made some really poor decisions but I do think claims of "they're trash" are being way overexaggerated. Look, the game got away from them. They made some mistakes. I'm not passing final judgement on one bad looking single game. My idea was to fire on Excel against evenly matched teams in back to back days and that hasn't changed. My evaluation of this team hasn't drastically changed based on one game and yours shouldn't either.
Moneyline: Excel +170 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
Origen definitely got away with one on multiple fronts yesterday against Schalke but I also think some credit should be given to the fact that, in my opinion which is why I presume you're here, they were severely outdrafted and managed to problem solve on the fly. That's not a very Origen thing. When playing sterilized League of Legends, Origen are excellent, maybe even the best team in Europe. It was kind of cool seeing them figure it out on the fly like this. It's a different look for them. Now it was against Schalke and while I don't think they're a bottom dweller like Vitality or SK anymore, I do think we could maybe question that they got outdrafted and outplayed by Schalke for the most part.
We got to see Rogue beat Excel but as I mentioned above it's very easy to get blown out or have a poor looking final score. It was a poor performance but not nearly as drastic as everyone is saying and for Rogue it wasn't quite as dominant as people are going to say either. That said, Rogue did look good. My gut tells me Origen "get right" here. Historically they haven't been a team that loses to even slightly weaker teams. There's been some overreaction to this depending on the book you look at. We're going to lay to win half a unit on Origen even after a shakey performance yesterday by them and a "great" performance by Rogue. Think about what these odds would have been before yesterday's games. Give me Origen.
Moneyline: Origen -175 (0.875 units)(5Dimes)
I'm not messing with teams against G2 just like I discussed yesterday. The G2 Troll Cycle of Life hasn't reached that point yet.
No wager: G2/VIT
SK look like the worst team in the league to me even though Vitality have a worse record. Vitality are at least attacking, SK have been sort of just rolling over. I just don't see a lot of redeeming characteristics to this team. That said I also think Misfits, while admittedly better than I thought this season, are still overrated so I won't be laying the -369, especially in a meta with so many ridiculously powerful champion picks to manage.
No wager: MSF/SK
Schalke looked pretty good against Origen yesterday and that they're slowly figuring themselves out as a team. They aren't going to be a free win the rest of the way but I also think Fnatic are enough better that I'm just going to pass on this game.
No wager: FNC/S04
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LCS (North America)
Week 6 - Day 1
Cloud 9 -478 vs FlyQuest +296
TSM -102 vs Liquid -141
Immortals -154 vs Golden Guardians +108
Evil Geniuses -154 vs 100 Thieves +108
I want to take a shot on FlyQuest here but Cloud 9 have been so so dominant that I can't really justify more than a quarter or half unit just on the value. At some point even this FU mode Cloud 9 is going to experiment with some things and go too far. They've already done some of this and just played their way out of it. I'll take a big dog that's competent.
Moneyline: FlyQuest +315 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
There is a pretty big difference on this TL/TSM game depending on where you look. Some places have Liquid favored by as much as -130. It makes sense. There are conflicting opinions on Liquid. Some people, like Crumbz think that Liquid might not ever get it together and you should be fading them. I look at the games where they get leads and see that they know how to close and think that this team can only be so bad. Broxah is going to catch up, they'll learn from drafts, and Liquid tend to elevate in spots where they need to. If they're going to turn on and make a run at playoffs at this point it starts here.
TSM have had some suspect decision making and have been a bit lucky in a few of their wins. They're certainly a good team but their willingness to surrender drakes every game could become a problem against better teams.
I'm going with Liquid here. Another week with Broxah, a new patch, and a team that is excellent from ahead vs a team that appear statistically better in the early game than they've actually been. For what it's worth I actually do think Liquid will get it together. The intangible "they always clutch it out" is typically an overrated factor but one that's being forgotten about here. Liquid are about to enter a streak of borderline must win games and that's a motivator.
Doublelift won't be playing this match due to illness but that doesn't change my thoughts on this match very much. He hasn't been particularly good this split relative to his normal performance level. This has more to do with TSM's tendencies in how they play vs what Liquid are good at than the individual players.
Moneyline: Liquid -102 (1.53 units)
We talked a lot about this match on the podcast this week but we were unanimously on Golden Guardians primarily because we think this is a classic case of teams trending in opposite directions. Immortals have impressed but I think most people understand that this team isn't as good as their record. Golden Guardians don't possess this tremendous upside but they've been trending in the right direction.
Moneyline: Golden Guardians +108 (1 unit)
It feels weird laying money on an EG team with so much philosophical dissonance but I just think the quality of the players on their side is much higher overall. I also think that, barring and Ssumday pop-off game here and there, that 100 Thieves are probably the worst team in the league and had a decent start so they're being overrated even still. Evil Geniuses should be able to figure at least some things out. This is more of a gut call than anything based on evidence. Just feels like an EG stomp.
Moneyline: Evil Geniuses -154 (0.77 units)
--------------------Cloud 9 -478 vs FlyQuest +296
TSM -102 vs Liquid -141
Immortals -154 vs Golden Guardians +108
Evil Geniuses -154 vs 100 Thieves +108
I want to take a shot on FlyQuest here but Cloud 9 have been so so dominant that I can't really justify more than a quarter or half unit just on the value. At some point even this FU mode Cloud 9 is going to experiment with some things and go too far. They've already done some of this and just played their way out of it. I'll take a big dog that's competent.
Moneyline: FlyQuest +315 (0.25 units)(5Dimes)
There is a pretty big difference on this TL/TSM game depending on where you look. Some places have Liquid favored by as much as -130. It makes sense. There are conflicting opinions on Liquid. Some people, like Crumbz think that Liquid might not ever get it together and you should be fading them. I look at the games where they get leads and see that they know how to close and think that this team can only be so bad. Broxah is going to catch up, they'll learn from drafts, and Liquid tend to elevate in spots where they need to. If they're going to turn on and make a run at playoffs at this point it starts here.
TSM have had some suspect decision making and have been a bit lucky in a few of their wins. They're certainly a good team but their willingness to surrender drakes every game could become a problem against better teams.
I'm going with Liquid here. Another week with Broxah, a new patch, and a team that is excellent from ahead vs a team that appear statistically better in the early game than they've actually been. For what it's worth I actually do think Liquid will get it together. The intangible "they always clutch it out" is typically an overrated factor but one that's being forgotten about here. Liquid are about to enter a streak of borderline must win games and that's a motivator.
Doublelift won't be playing this match due to illness but that doesn't change my thoughts on this match very much. He hasn't been particularly good this split relative to his normal performance level. This has more to do with TSM's tendencies in how they play vs what Liquid are good at than the individual players.
Moneyline: Liquid -102 (1.53 units)
We talked a lot about this match on the podcast this week but we were unanimously on Golden Guardians primarily because we think this is a classic case of teams trending in opposite directions. Immortals have impressed but I think most people understand that this team isn't as good as their record. Golden Guardians don't possess this tremendous upside but they've been trending in the right direction.
Moneyline: Golden Guardians +108 (1 unit)
It feels weird laying money on an EG team with so much philosophical dissonance but I just think the quality of the players on their side is much higher overall. I also think that, barring and Ssumday pop-off game here and there, that 100 Thieves are probably the worst team in the league and had a decent start so they're being overrated even still. Evil Geniuses should be able to figure at least some things out. This is more of a gut call than anything based on evidence. Just feels like an EG stomp.
Moneyline: Evil Geniuses -154 (0.77 units)
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