February 26th Recap:
LCK: 1 - 3 (-1.05 units)
TOTAL: 1 - 3 (-1.05 units)
KT with the outright victory kind of squashed what I thought would be a nice day after they took that game two but I still think our approach of favorites 2-1'ing is going to be profitable as long as the game remains in it's current state. We'll try to pick our spots on actual upsets but that moves underdog spreads in Korea to 21 - 11 on the season. We're going to keep attacking this.
Griffin had some nice moments against T1 but were more or less outclassed as a team and couldn't poke a hole in T1's armor even with individual leads.
We also got our first look at the LPL Open Scrims this morning. Talk about a different viewing experience... The LPL is an absolute bloodbath. I don't know if it's just the scrim culture there or what but over a kill per minute is absolutely a way to lose games right now. It's fun as hell to watch but it's definitely not a good model for consistency. With all of this extra offseason time due to the coronavirus I'm thinking a lot of the underdogs will be a nice play if and when the LPL starts up. It's going to be like a new Spring season at this point. Hopefully we get to see it.
Speaking of the coronavirus, Riot officially pushed back the Mid-Season Invitational (source). Bummer but I think we all saw this coming. Stay safe everyone!
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CHECK OUT THE GOLD CARD PODCAST!
Available on Spotify, iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, and wherever you get your podcast fix!
Griffin had some nice moments against T1 but were more or less outclassed as a team and couldn't poke a hole in T1's armor even with individual leads.
We also got our first look at the LPL Open Scrims this morning. Talk about a different viewing experience... The LPL is an absolute bloodbath. I don't know if it's just the scrim culture there or what but over a kill per minute is absolutely a way to lose games right now. It's fun as hell to watch but it's definitely not a good model for consistency. With all of this extra offseason time due to the coronavirus I'm thinking a lot of the underdogs will be a nice play if and when the LPL starts up. It's going to be like a new Spring season at this point. Hopefully we get to see it.
Speaking of the coronavirus, Riot officially pushed back the Mid-Season Invitational (source). Bummer but I think we all saw this coming. Stay safe everyone!
--------------------------
CHECK OUT THE GOLD CARD PODCAST!
Available on Spotify, iTunes, Podbean, Stitcher, and wherever you get your podcast fix!
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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)
LCK (Korea)
Week 4 - Day 2
Afreeca +197 (+1.5 @ -167)
vs
Gen.G -287 (-1.5 @ +118)
Afreeca were a part of our catastrophic Sunday. Not only did they not sweep KT Rolster but they lost outright 2-1 but as we're seeing with KT from this morning's results, they may not be entirely the dumpster fire I was starting to look at them as. Let's rewind to pre-season. When I was making my pre-season tier list for Korea I mentioned that I thought there was a clear top seven teams, then KT and Hanwha, then APK. I specifically said that KT and Hanwha had great rosters but likely wouldn't be able to hang over the course of the season but that they were good, competitve rosters. After their first few series that wasn't appearing to be the case. This team just wasn't on the same page but as we get deeper into the season they're really starting to build chemistry again and, perhaps more importantly than anything else, have an identity. KT are going to try to run you over. Do I think it's the best way to play right now? Not at all but if some teams are able to get good at it they're going to have a huge edge on everyone (see Cloud 9).
Gen.G, along with T1 and DragonX, look like they're separating themselves from the field in the LCK and they look like a different team than previous iterations of Gen.G. One of my biggest concerns for this team coming into the season was whether the Gen.G coaching staff would "ruin" this collection of talent like they've been notorious for doing over the past few years. That doesn't appear to be the case so far. Gen.G have shown a variety of strategies and styles and their individual players are deliviering on expectations. Their only loss was a 2-1 to T1 and all of this has been with some swapping at the support position between Life and Kellin.
I'm taking the underdog Afreeca Freecs in this spot. I love teams coming off of an embarassing performance. It tends to light a fire under the players and they often show up more well-prepared for their next match. You could maybe even call that a look-a-head spot, looking past KT Rolster. As abysmal and rage-inducing as Afreeca's last series was, and make no mistake, they made a ton of fundamental errors, this is still a tremendously talented team that I fully expect to learn from their mistakes. I've also said it a million times by now but we've all seen how coin-flippy this metagame is in League of Legends. It's significantly harder for superior teams to differentiate themselves when everyone is playing scaling and when going underneath that scaling is often risky. I think the talent on both of these teams is similar. Gen.G have obviously looked better but not by this much. Give me the dogs!
Spread: Afreeca +1.5 maps @ -145 (1.45 units)(5Dimes)
Moneyline: Afreeca +230 (0.75 units)(5Dimes)
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DAMWON -154 (-1.5 @ +197)
vs
Hanwha Life +108 (+1.5 @ -287)
It's weird that this line feels like it should be the other way around based on what we've seen so far. DAMWON are just not suited for this kind of League of Legends. They're much more like an LPL team. They want to constantly scrap and exercise that they're better than you. The thing with DAMWON is that they haven't changed from last year but the game has. League of Legends right now is about making the fewest mistakes. DAMWON are a team that makes a ton of mistakes and plays their way out of it. You don't want to be involved with teams that play that way right now because they're just going to auto-lose on a single play in a lot more games than they did last year.
Then there's Hanwha who have impressed a lot of people but are basically meeting my expectations so far. It hasn't been in the way that I thought they'd be but they're more or less a competitive team that I don't see making the playoffs and I still think that. Lehends is playing ridiculously well on everything he touches, that hasn't changed. He's an incredibly smart player and has, in my opinion, been hard carrying this team in a lot of games.
DAMWON aren't like the Afreeca situation from the last game. They aren't going to learn from their mistakes. This team is playing exactly the same way they did last year but as I mentioned the game has changed. That doesn't change overnight. Are DAMWON talented enough to just stomp this 2-0 in 50 minutes? Absolutely. As a matter of fact that wouldn't even surprise me. I think the temptation here is to take Hanwha primarily because DAMWON have been constantly punished for their sloppy play but I'm going to just stick to the over 2.5 maps. -287 is too much to pay on the Hanwha spread but I could honestly see either team winning this series in their current forms. 18 out of 32 series have gone to 3 games this season so far.
Total (maps): OVER 2.5 maps @ +100 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
Afreeca +197 (+1.5 @ -167)
vs
Gen.G -287 (-1.5 @ +118)
Afreeca were a part of our catastrophic Sunday. Not only did they not sweep KT Rolster but they lost outright 2-1 but as we're seeing with KT from this morning's results, they may not be entirely the dumpster fire I was starting to look at them as. Let's rewind to pre-season. When I was making my pre-season tier list for Korea I mentioned that I thought there was a clear top seven teams, then KT and Hanwha, then APK. I specifically said that KT and Hanwha had great rosters but likely wouldn't be able to hang over the course of the season but that they were good, competitve rosters. After their first few series that wasn't appearing to be the case. This team just wasn't on the same page but as we get deeper into the season they're really starting to build chemistry again and, perhaps more importantly than anything else, have an identity. KT are going to try to run you over. Do I think it's the best way to play right now? Not at all but if some teams are able to get good at it they're going to have a huge edge on everyone (see Cloud 9).
Gen.G, along with T1 and DragonX, look like they're separating themselves from the field in the LCK and they look like a different team than previous iterations of Gen.G. One of my biggest concerns for this team coming into the season was whether the Gen.G coaching staff would "ruin" this collection of talent like they've been notorious for doing over the past few years. That doesn't appear to be the case so far. Gen.G have shown a variety of strategies and styles and their individual players are deliviering on expectations. Their only loss was a 2-1 to T1 and all of this has been with some swapping at the support position between Life and Kellin.
I'm taking the underdog Afreeca Freecs in this spot. I love teams coming off of an embarassing performance. It tends to light a fire under the players and they often show up more well-prepared for their next match. You could maybe even call that a look-a-head spot, looking past KT Rolster. As abysmal and rage-inducing as Afreeca's last series was, and make no mistake, they made a ton of fundamental errors, this is still a tremendously talented team that I fully expect to learn from their mistakes. I've also said it a million times by now but we've all seen how coin-flippy this metagame is in League of Legends. It's significantly harder for superior teams to differentiate themselves when everyone is playing scaling and when going underneath that scaling is often risky. I think the talent on both of these teams is similar. Gen.G have obviously looked better but not by this much. Give me the dogs!
Spread: Afreeca +1.5 maps @ -145 (1.45 units)(5Dimes)
Moneyline: Afreeca +230 (0.75 units)(5Dimes)
-----
DAMWON -154 (-1.5 @ +197)
vs
Hanwha Life +108 (+1.5 @ -287)
It's weird that this line feels like it should be the other way around based on what we've seen so far. DAMWON are just not suited for this kind of League of Legends. They're much more like an LPL team. They want to constantly scrap and exercise that they're better than you. The thing with DAMWON is that they haven't changed from last year but the game has. League of Legends right now is about making the fewest mistakes. DAMWON are a team that makes a ton of mistakes and plays their way out of it. You don't want to be involved with teams that play that way right now because they're just going to auto-lose on a single play in a lot more games than they did last year.
Then there's Hanwha who have impressed a lot of people but are basically meeting my expectations so far. It hasn't been in the way that I thought they'd be but they're more or less a competitive team that I don't see making the playoffs and I still think that. Lehends is playing ridiculously well on everything he touches, that hasn't changed. He's an incredibly smart player and has, in my opinion, been hard carrying this team in a lot of games.
DAMWON aren't like the Afreeca situation from the last game. They aren't going to learn from their mistakes. This team is playing exactly the same way they did last year but as I mentioned the game has changed. That doesn't change overnight. Are DAMWON talented enough to just stomp this 2-0 in 50 minutes? Absolutely. As a matter of fact that wouldn't even surprise me. I think the temptation here is to take Hanwha primarily because DAMWON have been constantly punished for their sloppy play but I'm going to just stick to the over 2.5 maps. -287 is too much to pay on the Hanwha spread but I could honestly see either team winning this series in their current forms. 18 out of 32 series have gone to 3 games this season so far.
Total (maps): OVER 2.5 maps @ +100 (1 unit)(5Dimes)
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