Monday, February 24, 2020

February 24th: LCS

February 23rd Recap:


LCK: 0 - 5 (-7.23 units)


LCS: 1 - 2 (-0.25 units)

TOTAL: 1 - 7 (-7.48 units)

An absolute catastrophe in the LCK this morning for me. This is why you don't chase. I was immature and stupid and know better than this. I kind of went berserk on both of these teams on twitter this morning so I'll spare repeating myself but the long story short is that Afreeca was more of a bad beat while Damwon was just incorrect. The Afreeca/KT series had some really bizarre drafting and a horrific game one where all Afreeca needed to do was stall for another few minutes against an early game spiking team and they just repeatedly fought into KT really disrespectfully. 

Damwon on the other hand... This team is actually really bad for this patch. I think I've been subconsciously realizing that but haven't actually deliberately changed my approach. They're way WAY too clumsy, way too greedy, and in a metagame where a single mistake can cost you a game they're the exact kind of team to fade. Sandbox also looked more like themselves last series. I should have abstained or taken Sandbox for a little in this series in stead of piling on Damwon because of what I think they're "supposed to be." Damwon might eventually get it together and they're going to have spike performances where they beat good teams still on a given day but until the meta changes to something more forgiving they're on fade alert.

We took a shot on Immortals against C9 or we would have ended even in the LCS but the FlyQuest match being my last match of an 0 - 7 day made it quite the extra sweat. Rough day. They're going to happen. As I mentioned above, I think going heavy on Damwon on this patch was my big error and the rest of these are what they are. This was a pretty abysmal weekend. I ended up down -14.62 units on the weekend almost completely re-digging the hole I nearly had myself dug out of after the rough start. I don't normally get pissed at bad beats but I do get pissed at poor decision making or weak logic and that's what I had on at least a few of these. It's the only real way these truly bad weekends happen. 

You live, you learn. Onto the next one, it's a long season.


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(all lines are from Nitrogen unless stated otherwise)





LCS (North America)
Week 5 - Day 3

Evil Geniuses +118 vs Team Solo Mid -167

Dignitas +172 vs Liquid -260

 EG managed to take down Liquid yesterday primarily on the back of an absolute garbage draft by Liquid. You can't take Elise first pick and then attempt to do nothing with it against a superior scaling composition. You had very little gank assist in your lanes to setup successful Elise plays. Maybe Liquid is just trying to get comfortable and put Broxah on a familiar champion he's comfortable with but this Liquid team has shown an inability to draft cohesively over the course of the season. I'll give credit to Evil Geniuses, they played a very clean game and didn't really open any windows of opportunity for Liquid to take advantage of and that shouldn't go unstated. 

This is a somewhat tricky spot. Going into this weekend I had both favorites winning these matchups. We even talked on the podcast bout how we think EG will turn it around and are underrated but that this "wasn't the weekend" to get on that train yet. It's rare that I have that strong of a change of heart over two games. I still think TSM are a top two team but the question is by how much. Before the season started I had TSM just a tad better than EG and while that doesn't look to be the case (they appear much better) I still believe this EG team is going to be good even with the rough start. 

TSM didn't exactly dominate their game against 100 Thieves yesterday even with counterpicks in multiple lanes but I think that's a symptom of the current metagame which is why we're going with both dogs. This seems like a super square position with Liquid coming off of an "embarassing loss" (which is disrespectful to EG) and then taking EG coming off the win but not only can confidence be a powerful thing, but the current metagame has showed us that most games are significantly closer to 50/50 than the odds indicate unless elite teams like Cloud 9 are involved. I don't think EG and Dignitas are better teams than TSM and Liquid but on this patch, unless you're miles better, it doesn't matter. 

I typically hate betting "momentum spots" like this but Liquid need to show me something. There's a good chance that while this isn't a lost season yet, it might take another week or two for Broxah to get acclimated and for this team to figure out it's drafting issues. I don't see what's so difficult about this patch but apparently a lot of professional coaches think they're smarter than the room or have been succeeding with other things in scrims. 

Could Liquid "turn it on" and just smash? Absolutely but I'll add a reminder that the "Spring Split doesn't matter" narrative is perhaps another reason to fade Liquid here. To me this is mostly just a play on the odds more than Liquid's struggles.

Moneyline: Evil Geniuses +140 (1 unit)(5Dimes)

Moneyline: Dignitas +172 (1 unit)(Nitrogen)

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Parlays:

"Double Dogs" Parlay (2): EG ML + DIG ML @ +448 (0.25 units)

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