Betting: June 8th (LCK, LPL, LEC, NA LCS, TCL)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 1 Day 4:

I put this bet in last Saturday expecting the number to change a lot once KT stomped Jin Air and wanted to get in at a good number. The number has moved slightly in favor of KT but I'm honestly having a little bit of buyer's remorse. KT still didn't look like they knew how to close a game out and while you could argue that Jin Air are improved after their performance against a sleep walking SKT this morning, I'm still skeptical of KT. Other than their bot lane being a liability, the biggest issue KT had last season was an inability to close a lead. They looked lost. You could chalk some of that up to first match nerves or rust or still figuring each other out but it was a yellow flag for me so KT are on watch. I think Hanwha are going to be, along with Jin Air, the bottom teams this split by a fair margain and while I don't think they're necessarily a bad team, they haven't really done anything except regress since Spring 2018 so I'm not going to hedge this wager on KT and we're going to let it ride. KT looked dreadful and still 2-0'd a similar level team in Jin Air so I'm hoping for something similar here. 

Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +153 (BOOKMAX ~5.1 units)

Griffin actually opened their game one against Afreeca with some excellent defensive play and counterganking from Tarzan. Other than Afreeca getting a couple infernal drakes Griffin looked well on their way to a controlled victory... and then it went a little haywire. A few errant fights, a weird mistake by Lehends that ended up in a bloody 4v5 baron fight where Griffin came out with the baron. But other than a few dragons Griffin didn't really get a lot off of their baron buff and Afreeca were able to chain together a few picks to stymie the advance. Then there was another weird baron fight where Afreeca were able to secure elder drake and then got aced in baron pit after securing it. 

This game was so bizarre. It opened in a way that every Korean team would love with very limited kills, some controlled defense, and plenty of time to scale but then it turned into a weird LPL game with constant picks, mistakes, and fighting. I'm really not sure what to make of this game. You could argue Griffin should have lost this series 2-0. Afreeca did look quite good at times but I also question how you get aced in the baron pit with an elder drake Azir. Griffin arguably should have won off the first baron in that game and they couldn't close either making mistakes and getting caught. Then the weird Yorick pick in game two? Perhaps it was the long offseason for both of these teams, perhaps it was some nerves or rustiness but this was a weird series and I'm not going to jump to any conclusions other than one which is that Afreeca already looks substantially improved and hungry compared to last season.

On the other end of this matchup is DAMWON who lost to Gen.G rather decisively after their reliance on Sejuani+Camille/Fiora was quickly solved. I discussed this on the podcast a bit but DAMWON fell into a weird pattern last season where they'd catch a few huge performances from Nuguri which is no surprise because he's an absolute beast, but then they'd continue to go more and more all in on strategies around him and they'd get punished for this. It's almost like Gen.G just straight up figured this out after game one because they did such an excellent job punishing the four man non-Nuguri squad of DAMWON and won the series decisively after it. 

If Gen.G can figure this out, Griffin can abuse it too. I'm going to be interested to see how DAMWON approach this game because it's not like they're incapable of doing other things but I can't help but wonder if they'll try the Flame/Punch lineup here. My initial thought on this game was to take DAMWON +1.5 because these teams have a lot of history and Griffin didn't exactly look clean in their debut but I think with the rust partially shaken off and a really linear strategy to expose Griffin can take care of business here. "But Gelati, Gen.G are similarly linear in how they approach the game and Griffin couldn't punish them." This is a good point but I think they had control of those games and they just sort of got away from them in much the same way a random solo queue game does, weird stuff sometimes happens. I'd expect Griffin to be closer to peak form after shaking off the cobwebs in that last matchup and if DAMWON don't mix things up this should be a 2-0 for Griffin.

Spread: Griffin -1.5 maps @ +109 (3 units)

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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 2 Day 5:

Top eSports (TES now) are an odd team for me. I know they're good, and I know they're a team that tries hard every game but I can't really envision this team ever winning the LPL. They're kind of like Origen or Splyce in Europe, perhaps better, but never realistically going to take the whole thing down. They have excellent players, they're versatile... I don't know it's just an odd feeling with them.

Vici showed some gusto in their first series against Suning who, quite frankly, looked really awful and even managed to take a game but we're talking about a three or four TIER difference here. I love the TES -1.5 but the number is quite high. If this was mid season and I'd seen TES in action I'd feel a little more comfortable with this one and go a bit heavier as a "shoebox" bet but since we haven't seen TES yet this season there is at least some level of unknown here. I'm going to limit myself to four units here even though I'd honestly like to go double that amount in this spot.

(UPDATE: Book moved up to -1.5 @ -263 before I could get bet in, this will be a no wager on the lines from me for now but I do like the o/u's)

O/U: Map 1 UNDER 31:00 @ -114 (1.5 units)

O/U: Map 1 UNDER 24.5 kills @ -114 (1 unit)

O/U: Map 2 UNDER 31:00 @ -114 (1.5 units)

O/U: Map 2 UNDER 24.5 kills @ -114 (1 unit)

RNG are infuriating ... This team is so good and they just look like they don't care in some games. This should be a slam dunk "shoebox" bet but RNG can't ever say no to a fight so there is a certain degree of uncertainty here. Rogue Warriors are the other team we haven't seen yet this season but I'm not sure Zwuji and friends can get a game here even with the addition of Haro. I'm going to fire on this and probably regret it when RNG clown around and punt game 2 but this is in range and perhaps RNG will wake the hell up and stop messing around. 

Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ -227 (5 units)

O/U: Map 1 UNDER 31:00 @ -118 (1.5 units)

O/U: Map 2 UNDER 31:00 @ -118 (1.5 units)

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LEC Summer 2019 - Week 1 Day 2:

I was originally going to fire on Excel based on upside but I think both Rogue and Excel both looked improved in their debut performances today so this will be a pass from me. I hate doing it because these bottom of the table bouts are usually a great money maker for me but I'm not sure how tomorrow will turn out. I'd lean Rogue though.

No wager (lean Rogue)

Excel actually looked like they were going to win this game before a fatal mistake and by Hjarnan was punished by Trick during a siege/mostly won teamfight. The players weren't happy and thought they didn't play well. SK got obliterated by Fnatic and while you could argue Fnatic are a better team than Schalke I think the fact that SK got completely run over by a scaling composition with their own scaling composition perhaps doesn't bode well for them at least for the near future. I love Schalke here and I got in earlier this week when this line was -116. I'm actually going to add a unit on even at the new number as I think Schalke should look better than they did today and take care of business here.

Moneyline: Schalke 04 -116 (2 units)

Moneyline: Schalke 04 -156 (1 unit) (add on)

I'm not going to hold it against Splyce they they got obliterated by G2. They're just that much better than everybody. Vitality on the other hand irritated me with that loss today (as you could clearly tell from my Twitter timeline...). I liked Origen's thought process in the draft to secure the Sejuani/Camille to control Vitality's typical roaming to side lanes strategy by controlling the river and basically making it impossible to leave lane but Vitality had a smart solution to the problem picking strong lanes and scaling. The issue was that Mowgli made a greedy play early and was punished and then around the 22 minute mark there was a team fight that Vitality could have gracefully lost to prevent a baron but instead took head on and were completely decimated. When you have superior scaling with Azir and Sivir and you were gifted the lead by weak lanes from your opponent you don't give them their only out to win. ... uggg

Perhaps Vitality are too much like the LPL teams they bootcamped with but I think their draft was solid and that's an easy thing to correct as long as they can get the red out of their eyes for two seconds. I also think Origen had a great gameplan that Splyce could duplicate so after seeing it today Vitality might not make the same mistake again. Mostly I just think Vitality are a better team. I already put this wager in earlier this week and I'm not going to hedge it here even after today's awful decision making. Vitality even recovered well from a bad mistake from Mowgli and looked to be in full control and scaling before one dumb decision tilted them into chasing their loss as it was elegantly put on the cast.

Moneyline: Vitality -111 (3 units)

Fnatic looked great and Misfits managed to hard carry an abysmal performance by Febiven (I'm not a hater but man this is tough to watch after this guys career...). Even after Profit got nothing on his first Rumble ultimate and Woolite and Vander got completely creamed in the bottom lane Misfits still almost punted a fight in this one grouping under a Rumble ult in the jungle but luckily for them they were ahead enough to manage it. This game was not as much of a blowout as the scoreline looks like but it was still a clear victory for Misfits. Tomorrow they get to face a significantly better team in Fnatic and I full expect them to get rolled. 

(UPDATE: This line has since moved to Fnatic -313 which is out of range for me so I'll be passing)

No wager

I got in on this G2 line earlier this week too. I'm going to be betting my best of one max three units on any G2 game thats under -300 until they clinch playoffs. Even when this team is clowning around and experimenting they can completely roll teams as we saw last season. 

Moneyline: G2 -233 (3 units)

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NA LCS Summer 2019 - Week 2 Day 1:

(Golden Guardians vs Clutch is temporarily suspended will update tomorrow on it)

You know when you get a weird feeling about a game? I kind of think Echo Fox might randomly win this but I can't bring myself to bet it. Cloud 9 should whoop them but who knows, I'm just crazy.

No wager

Unfortunately the grass isn't greener on the week two schedule for the dreadful looking 100 Thieves. I'm not going to hold this game against them but if they can show well against TL I'll have a bit more faith. The real test of 100 Thieves and whether I'm jumping ship will be Sunday vs Clutch. I think Liquid speedrun this.

O/U: TL/100T UNDER 31:00 @ -114 (2 units)

So we talked a lot about this one on the podcast but I think these two teams are similarly rated. I had them in the same tier in my rankings and while I think TSM might be slightly better these odds are simply absurd. I'm best of one max on FlyQuest here. This series should be maybe -120/+100... this is a classic example of a line being overblown due to previous seasons results and the first week. I love week two betting so much because of the overreaction. Even if this doesn't pan out I'll have absolutely no regrets about slamming this number. This is ridiculous!

Moneyline: FlyQuest +230 (3 units)

I don't like CLG but I have to admit they looked pretty clean last week and I think Optic is being a tad overvalued based on their peformance last week too. Call it a hunch bet but I kind like CLG and I got them at plus money. If it was at the current -109 I'd probably pass though. 

Moneyline: CLG +110 (0.5 units)

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Turkish Champions League

I haven't had the time I usually do to dabble in the smaller regions as much as I did last season but I'm going with SuperMassive for a unit against Spring champions and MSI representatives Fenerbahce. SuperMassive have lineup continuity bringing back the same crew while FB had to replace Ruin, albeit with perhaps an upgrade with former SKT member Untara. The Korean to Korean transition shouldn't be a hard one but I still think these two teams are fairly evenly matched regardless and with a new member I'll take the revenge + FB need time to gel combination even at this number.

Moneyline: SuperMassive -154 (1 unit)

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Parlays:

As usual on slates where there are a lot of heavy favorites I go heavy on parlays as a way to mine value. It's very risky and I don't encourage you to tail all of them but these are what I'm on for tomorrow just to give you an idea of my exposure. Wednesday and Thursday were literally both one single game from massive gains so while this looks a little crazy the heavy parlay exposure has actually been pretty good to me this season.

LCK Only Parlays:

Parlay (2): KT ML + GRF ML @ -102 (2 units)

Parlay (2): KT -1.5 + GRF -1.5 @ +404 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): GRF ML + KT -1.5 @ +221 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): KT ML + GRF -1.5 @ +211 (0.5 units)

LPL Only Parlays:

Parlay (2): TOP -1.5 + RNG -1.5 @ +109 (2 units)

Parlay (2): TOP/VG M2 UNDER 31:00 + RNG/RW M2 UNDER 31:00 @ +248 (0.5 units)

LCK  + LPL Parlays:

"Quad Moneyline" Parlay (4): KT ML + GRF ML + TOP ML + RNG ML @ +151 (2 units)

"Eastern Exacta" Parlay (4): KT -1.5 + GRF -1.5 + TOP -1.5 + RNG -1.5 @ +952 (0.5 units)

LEC Only Parlays:

Parlay (2): FNC ML + G2 ML @ -125 (4 units)

Parlay (3): FNC ML + G2 ML + S04 ML @ +194 (1 unit)

Parlay (2): FNC ML + S04 ML @ +116 (0.5 units)

Parlay (2): G2 ML + S04 ML @ +123 (0.5 units)

"LEC Saturday Exacta" Parlay (5): 

ROG ML + S04 ML + VIT ML + FNC ML + G2 ML @ +935 (0.1 units)

NA LCS Only Parlays:

Parlay (2):  FLY +230 + GG +195 @ +874 (0.25 units)

Multi Region "Fun" Parlays:

"The Heavy Favorites" Parlay (9): 

RNG ML + TOP ML + GRF ML + KT ML + TL ML + C9 ML + G2 ML + FNC ML + S04 ML @ +986 (0.05 units) 

"Saturday Western Exacta" Parlay (10): 

EXC ML + S04 ML + VIT ML + FNC ML +G2 ML + TL ML + CG ML + TSM ML + GG ML + FLY ML @ +22,713 (0.1 units)

"Saturday LEC Sunday NA Western Exacta" Parlay (10): 

EXC ML + S04 ML + VIT ML + FNC ML +G2 ML + TL ML + CG ML + TSM ML + C9 ML + FLY ML @ +18,523 (0.1 units)

"Saturday LEC Sunday NA Western Exacta" 2 Parlay (10): 

ROG ML + S04 ML + VIT ML + FNC ML +G2 ML + TL ML + CG ML + TSM ML + GG ML + FLY ML @ +18,523 (0.1 units)