Betting: June 25th (LPL)

LPL Summer 2019 - Week 5 Day 2

I still don't trust this LNG team. I can't quite put a finger on why so take my lack of faith with a grain of salt. They've played close series against medicre teams in JDG and Team WE but also smashed IG and Dominus. Now Dominus has been pretty disappointing so maybe they're a mediocre team, and maybe IG during that first week could be considered a bad team but that's up for debate. BiliBili was able to take them down on Friday but I think LNG probably could have won that series as well. The point I'm getting at is that I don't know what's up with this team other than they look a lot like the old Snake teams in that if you choose to teamfight them they're good but if you can run them around the map or do anything out of the ordinary they look lost. They're good at one thing and one thing only and that's 5v5 teamfighting. LGD have also been a mixed bag this season with respectable performances against FunPlus and RNG only to be cleaned up by Suning and punt a game to Victory 5, a team I'd expect to finish in the bottom four. 

This is a really tough series to pin down but I think LNG getting plus odds to sweep is probably correct. Look, I do think LNG are due for some regression, I don't think this team as quite as good as their record but I'm not that confident about it. Still I think LGD are still getting their legs under them after the whole Condi scandel. I'm going light on this one though because I'm not that confident despite it looking correct.

Spread: LNG -1.5 maps @ +109 (1 unit)

It should be noted that I'm firing on this under the assumption that iBoy is starting but that I'm not going to hedge it if Hope is announced. Hope had a rough series against WE but he also wasn't helped a lot in that process. I'm not sure why they'd draft Yasuo into the WE comp or if it was just a different plan gone awry but I can't help but think he may have been a little tilted going into game two. EDG did not play a good series against WE. It's their first weak series of the year and I'm not going to look into it too much. This is a solid team that took a night off, much like Afreeca did against Gen.G on Sunday morning. It's rich but I'm firing on this before we get iBoy news that perhaps pushes this even further. RW are bad, they'll probably get a game win at some point but this team is reassembling itself and is essentially in full rebuild. I don't expect them to win a lot of games this year and I'll be rolling sweeps on them until they prove me otherwise.

Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ -238 (2 units)

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Parlays:

I'm going to do a hedge parlay as well as a parlay of these two picks here. It basically says if the worst possible thing happens on our picks today then we're insulated a bit. I realize cutting an already rich -238 is pretty rough but it seems when it rains it pours and I guess I'm feeling a bit superstitious right now. It's really easy for this slate to go wrong for me so we can potentially hit nice on a weird day or hedge and basically recover our wagers.

"Hedge" Parlay (2): LGD +1.5 + RW +1.5 @ +352 (0.5 units)

Parlay (2): EDG -1.5 + LNG -1.5 @ +207 (1 unit)

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Parlay (4): EDG -1.5 + Griffin -1.5 + Sandbox -1.5 + SKT ML @ +539 (0.25 units)