Beting: June 9th (LCK, LPL, NA LCS)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 1 Day 5

(Update: This line has moved to KZ -139/Sandbox +109 as of 6:45pm)

Kingzone lost game two because of the Viktor pick from Deft. It was so potent into the low range composition of Lissandra/Vayne as the carries. Viktor is exceptionally hard for those two champions to fight around and by putting it in the bot lane it makes the lane phase even more difficult for Vayne too. I think Gen.G caught them off guard in the draft and that's all there was to it in game two. Sandbox obliterated Hanwha Life eSports to clearly separate themselves from the bottom level teams but looked quite sharp doing so. Not a whole lot we can put into that victory but they did look pretty clean and very much themselves outside of the weird game one early game.

This is a really interesting match because I think both of these teams have started off looking really sharp and not affected by the offseason at all. I originally was going to fire on Sandbox for the value but I think the new line is more accurate. Dove vs Naehyun could potentially be a big mismatch but Naehyun has looked better than he did in any of his games last season so I'm optimstic. He's also seen Dove before in one of the three games he played last season. 

For the time being this is just going to be a lean to Kingzone and a light wager on the over 2.5 maps played since I believe this is a close series that could go either way.

Prop: Over 2.5 maps played @ -110 (2 units)

SK Telecom look a little off and I'm not really sure exactly what it is but I think it's probably some combination of fatigue, MSI hangover, and some time off before the season started. They looked like they didn't have a game plan for Jin Air and quite honestly could have lost the first two games of their series. There is a good chance they bounce back here and snap back to reality so to speak but I'm thinking this could be a couple series slump and with how fresh and robust this Afreeca team has looked so far I expect them to take it to SKT and perhaps even win this series outright.

Earlier in the week I put this in before the SKT/Jin Air series but after Afreeca's first because I thought Afreeca looked rejuvinated and could challenge SKT regardless of how they looked vs Jin Air. I got this line at Afreeca +1.5 @ +193. It's since moved down to +1.5 @ -115. I also got the over 2.5 maps @ +230, it's since moved to +133. This emphasizes the importance of both shopping for lines and being willing to fire on your convictions because you see just how much value you lose by waiting to see. Of course there are some situations that call for it but with how Afreeca looked in their first series I was comfortable firing at those odds. These are still ok considering how flat SKT looked but historically SKT come back fierce after bad showings so I'll leaave the pick at the current line up to your own judgement. So in other words, if you still like this pick that's fine but I do think you've lost a lot of value.

Spread: Afreeca +1.5 @ +193 (2 units)

Prop: OVER 2.5 maps played @ +230 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Afreeca +262 (2 units) (add on after VOD review)

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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 2 Day 6

Suning looked awful in their win against Vici and while this Vici team looks like they've got some attitude to them for a change I still don't think they're great. Suning are almost definitely not making playoffs it's just a matter of how bad they are. I think they're leaning more towards the bottom tier than the second from the bottom until they prove otherwise. LGD, on the other hand, look like a refreshed lineup as well but they're hard to decipher. Taking a game off RNG but dropping a game to V5 in the same few days is bizarre. I like this LGD lineup a lot and Suning honestly look anemic. Some of my cohosts on the podcast really loved LGD here and while I can't be that enamored with a team of their caliber I do think there is a lot of value in LGD here for two similarly rated teams.

Moneyline: LGD +135 (1 unit)

I love this new look EDG so much they handled a Dominus team that looked formidable in their series against Invictus and this team can only get better as they build chemistry with Jinoo. JDG might not be quite as bad as they've shown so far this series but we all know last playoffs was a flash in the pan. This team is a middle of the table team. I'm heavy on EDG to sweep this tomorrow. It's a statement of my faith in this EDG roster. I think JDG win this game with Flawless and Zoom taking over but I have a lot less faith in them to do that against Jinoo and Jiejie with how they look so far. This feels like a match made in heaven and we're getting super good value on EDG here. 

EDG have stronger players at every position besides maybe jungle and I only say that because we don't have much of a track record for Jiejie. I think they look stronger right now and that JDG haven't shown us anything new. JDG are also regressing back to their normal level a bit.  It's aggressive and it's a bit of a leap of faith but I'm firing super heavy on EDG tomorrow.

Moneyline: EDG -189 (5 units)

Spread: EDG -1.5 @ +142 (5 units)

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It's worth noting that NA has actually been really REALLY quiet averaging only 19 kills per game. A lot of these kill totals are around 21.5 or 22.5. I think there's some justification in taking the unders until the books adjust but I honestly think we're more likely to get a correction to the mean than for those unders to hit. I'm tempted to fire on the over kill totals in every game today but will update this later.

(UPDATE: My colleagues have talked me off this one, things don't change in one day but perhaps next week we can look into this)

NA LCS Summer 2019 - Week 2 Day 2

Liquid should take care of business here. I think they're basically two full tiers better than the rest of NA and outside of weird games there they try something different or are lazy they should take care of everyone handedly. 31:00 is a relatively low number but they've hit the under in all of their games thus far and I think their laners and Xmithie can blow a lead out from this CLG team. CLG have looked pretty good so far but they're not even close to the same level as TL.

O/U: UNDER 31:00 @ -114 (0.5 units)

Well here we are. I don't like to judge teams based on one game but the truth is how both of these teams look in this game is more or less going to define how I approach them moving forward. Going into the season I would have loved 100 Thieves here but until yesterday's match against Liquid they haven't look anywhere near what I thought they'd be. Clutch had a rough start but seemed a lot better against Golden Guardians yesterday who, to this point have looked pretty sharp. My beef with Clutch is that they draft themselves into a hole sometimes but if they can simplify things and stop trying to be something they aren't, kinda like they did yesterday by just picking a straight forward comp then I like them alot.

This line has jumped from this yesterday to Clutch -145 which is probably accurate. I desperately want to like 100 Thieves here in this sort of ultimatum game but Clutch is the right play. :-/

Moneyline: Clutch Gaming +100 (0.5 units)
(original bet earlier in week)

Moneyline: Clutch -145 (2 units) (add on)

I was hoping we'd get some value here with Echo Fox stealing a game and TSM losing a few to start this season but we aren't. I do, however, like the 32:00 number here quite a bit. Echo Fox have been fairly feast or famine over the past few months so I love unders in their games and TSM is clearly a stronger squad here.

O/U: UNDER 32:00 at -114 (2 units)

I absolutely love the Golden Guardians here and put this bet in earlier this week. Other than the loss yesterday Golden Guardians have looked really sharp and seem to have a good read on the metagame in my opinion. Cloud 9 have had a fairly easy schedule other than FlyQuest facing Echo Fox and Clutch. Cloud 9 tend to be rather feast or famine as well like a better version of Echo Fox. Cloud 9 SHOULD win this game but the odds shouldn't be this far apart at all and I think this matchup is significantly closer to 50/50 so we're going to attack the value. C9's games have been bloody and action packed and I think are due to become a bit faster as well with two good teams involved.

Moneyline: Golden Guardians +195 (2 units)

O/U: OVER 22.5 total kills @ -143 (1 unit)

O/U: UNDER 32:00 @ -114 (0.25 units)

Another wager from earlier in the week because I saw value in it. FlyQuest are a solid team who have had arguably the hardest schedule in the league facing TSM, GG, and C9 so far. After a win yesterday where V1per absolutely popped off on Riven I'd expect this squad to be feeling confident. OpTic have looked surprisingly good but have also faced an easy schedule of CLG, 100 Thieves, and Clutch. I'm not holding the easy schedule against them because they have looked pretty sharp for the most part but FlyQuest is a better team and the record so far this season is warping this line in a pretty crazy way. I also think this 33:00 is fairly high especially given the shift from OpTic to a more team fighting focused style over their previous iterations use of split pushing. I expect this one to be bloody.

Moneyline: FlyQuest +102 (3 units)

O/U: OVER 22.5 kills @ -114 (0.5 units)

O/U: UNDER 33:00 @ -114 (0.5 units)


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Parlays:


(PENDING) Parlay (2): FlyQuest +230 (W) + GG +195 @ +874 (0.25 units)

"Sunday NA Exacta 1" Parlay (5):
Fly ML + GG ML + TSM ML + CG ML + TL ML @ +1321 (1 unit)

"Sunday NA Exacta 2" Parlay (5):
Fly ML + C9 ML + TSM ML + CG ML + TL ML @ +1321 (0.5 unit)

Parlay (2): TL ML + CG ML @ +108 (1 unit)

Parlay (3): TL ML + CG ML + TSM ML @ +168 (0.75 units)

Parlay (4): TL ML + CG ML + TSM ML + FLY ML @ +391 (0.25 units)

(TODAY INTO TOMORROW)

Parlay (3): TL ML + BBG -1.5 + IG -1.5 @ +230 (1 unit)

(TODAY INTO NEXT WEEK)

Parlay (2): TL ML + AF -1.5 vs HLE @ +255 (1 unit)