Saturday, June 1, 2019

Betting: June 2nd (LPL, NA LCS)

LPL Summer 2019 - Week 1 Day 2:


It's going to be interesting seeing how Victory Five react to the loss of Jinoo last week and with such a short amount of time to integrate someone new I'm a bit skeptical about their outlook. V5 showed some flashes last split. They're decisive and aggressive but they also don't really know what to do with a lead and often look lost. Without their best player to carry them through games I'm really not sure how I can project them to win against more or less anyone but the other bottom dwellers. LGD could be one of those other bottom dwellers but unlike V5 I'm optimistic about their outlook. Towards the end of the season LGD looked to be hitting a bit of a stride. With continuity and the addition of some competition/replacement for Lies in DoRun from the Korean Challenger scene I think LGD are trending in the right direction. Does this mean they're good? Not particularly but I think they'll possibly challenge for the 8th playoff spot this split and could separate themselves from the bottom of the barrel. 

Typically what I do when two bad teams are playing is just pick one to 2-0 because of the odds. I think the "sharp" play here would be to fade the lack of faith in V5 and bet the V5 moneyline but we aren't exactly getting a ton of value here. I like the LGD spread for a small, half unit wager here. I don't feel too strongly about it because I don't tend to trust bottom half teams to "take care of business" but I think LGD look enough better that I like the 2-0.

Spread: LGD -1.5 maps @ +128 (0.5 units)



With the addition of Langx (formerly XiaoAL of Suning Gaming) and shakeup to the coaching staff I actually expect RNG to come out swinging and with a new energy. Not only was top lane their weakest position but XiaoAL is one of the best in the league and regardless of how much time they've had to gel or incorporate the new coaches ideas, this team has always had a way of playing itself. In other words, they aren't a coach driven team like SKT, they're the players just ballin' out on people and I full expect that to be the case here. With all the turmoil I think a lot of people might actually like WE here but RNG are just too good and unlike the lethargic Spring version we're used to seeing sleep their way to the finals, RNG got ousted early by upstarts JDG and will be looking to reassert their dominance in the LPL with a smashing of Team WE to open the season off. Two teams with similar styles, one with a tremendous individual player advantage. I love RNG here and expect them to come out the gates hot even with all the changes behind the scenes. Simply put, great players are the name of the game right now and RNG has a ton of them.

Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ +107 (5 units)

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Other than FlyQuest/C9 we had a really really low kill day in NA but I think a lot of that was a symptom of how the games played out and that we should expect some correction moving forward. It'd be too easy to just look at the average kill total of 20 over the small sample size of five games and say we should be taking the unders in all these games. I like the under in one game and I'm leaning it in another but don't get trapped into thinking that's the play to make today just because of how the games shook out yesterday.

NA LCS Summer 2019 - Week 1 Day 2:


Clutch made one critical mistake around 28 minutes while trying to set up a flank dive on the mid tier two tower and OpTic turning it on them with the TF ult. That gave OpTic enough money that when a few people barely escaped Huni's Rumble damage with a smidgen of health in the next fight they were able to take the fight and set up a split push with Crown's TF. I thought Clutch played fine up until this point and OpTic just made fewer mistakes in this game. It looked like two evenly matched teams. Cloud 9 and FlyQuest played an absolute slugfest game where they seemingly couldn't resist throwing themselves at each other every chance they got. FlyQuest looked really really good and Cloud 9 ended up winning that game off of one sick fight from Licorice around an infernal drake. 

I'm still going with my initial light wager on both teams against Cloud 9 simply for the value here. I don't think C9 are immune to punting a game here or there and they even trailed a lot in that game against FlyQuest. Yes FlyQuest is a stronger opponent but I didn't think Clutch looked bad besides one great play from OpTic to win a fight and get them enough of a lead to win the next fight. If you didn't put this bet in from the podcast or when I mentioned it yesterday you're getting even better value with Clutch today.

Moneyline: Clutch Gaming +267 (0.5 units) (initial bet)

Moneyline: Clutch Gaming +358 (0.5 units) (add on) (didn't process)

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Golden Guardians and FlyQuest both looked excellent yesterday despite one of them losing while the other won. V1per and Pobelter had an outstanding game individually against Cloud 9 but a couple team fight wins from Cloud 9 featuring Licorice on Aatrox helped them run away with it. Golden Guardians predictably demolished Echo Fox but I thought Olleh's TK and Contactz Skarner and their play around the map making decisive dives and picks was really high level and showed a level of confidence and proficiency that I don't think just looked good simply because they were facing a bottom dwelling Echo Fox.  

So how do these two match up? V1per was honestly outplaying Licorice most of that game yesterday despite Licorice having the game winning play. Hauntzer wasn't particularly good or bad against Solo which concerned me a bit so I kind of think Golden Guardians might have their hands full with V1per in this game. Froggen and Pobelter were both excellent as always so that will be the matchup to watch for sure. It's going to be interesting to see which direction FlyQuest want to go with this draft because I would not want to play against TK + Skarner like GG showed yesterday against Echo Fox. I'm going to put a light wager on FlyQuest here for value. I think they two team are relatively even and this line opened at FlyQuest -125/GG -103 and has swung heavily in favor of GGS. I don't think the games yesterday should impact a line that much. I'll take the dogs for a unit in this case.

Moneyline: FlyQuest +111 (1 unit)

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I love this new look Team Liquid so much! They're so much more willing to take 50/50's and Doublelift talked about that and a lot of other things in his post game interview with Ovilee. They have basically upped the tempo and have the confidence to take fights that they would previously play more conservatively. This team might punt a game here or there being overzealous like good teams sometimes do but it honestly wouldn't surprise me to see this team win 16 or 17 or even go undefeated in games this season. So you'd think with this newfound aggression that it'd look bad to take the under 21.5 kills here. I personally just think Echo Fox is going to get run over here and that unless TL want to style on them and play with their food that this is going to look very similar to yesterday. TSM is a significantly better team than Echo Fox and TL just dismantled them 11-4. I like the under here for two units and I'm just going to have to hope TL don't toy with Echo Fox and run up the score.

O/U: TL/Echo Fox UNDER 21.5 total kills @ -114 (2 units)

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I thought Wiggily was a step ahead of everything 100 Thieves did yesterday. It felt like everytime Aphromoo went to ward forward he was there to kill him. I didn't think anybody else did anything particularly excellent but he alone got them a big enough lead that 100 Thieves got too far down. Also apparently the pros think Yuumi is busted which is a note to take from this game. TSM didn't even look bad against TL early but TL is just too good for this region right now. I'll respect that CLG looked pretty good yesterday and that there is probably some value in taking them here but the time to do that would have been yesterday when you could get CLG +309 before their win. I'm passing on this moneyline since I think TSM should demolish CLG but I'm not sure how. The under is tempting but as I mentioned earlier I don't think we should just assume all of these games will be this tame. CLG showed a new look with a heavy team fighting focus yesterday which brings more kills than their previous iteration that was heavily focused on split pushing. I'm going to put half a unit on the under instead my intial gut feeling of 1-1.5 units for this reason.

O/U: TSM/CLG UNDER 22.5 total kills (1 unit)

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100 Thieves loss looked a lot worse than I think they played and I'm not just saying that because I had a ton of money on them. Wiggily was spot on to punish at every time and was able to get his team ahead almost entirely by himself off of early decisions and pathing. I'm not quitting on 100 Thieves after that, the game just got away from them but it wasn't for lack of proactivity. On the other side in this game we have OpTic who busted out the Crown Twisted Fate in game one which I thought was fine but not particularly exciting in this specific game although it's worth noting that he has that in the pool moving forward. 

I already have a ton of exposure to 100 Thieves here and I'm going to take a huge risk after losing a ton yesterday and NOT hedge this. If I was doing this professionally I'd likely hedge this down to attempt to recoup about 2/3rds of the value and leave 1/3rd on the table. I still thnk these two teams should be priced closer to even of that, depending on how much you weight preseason takes or change them after one game, that 100T should be moderate to heavy favorites here. I'm leaving it on the line because of this. I'm not letting one good OpTic game and one 100T game that looked worse than it actually was phase me. This is the problem with best of ones, they tend to shade people's opinions of teams way more than they should. It's one game.

Moneyline: 100 Thieves -114 (6 units)(initial bet put in on 5/29)

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Light on these today nothing that particularly sticks out. Mostly just for fun.

Parlays:

Sunday Exacta Parlay (5): CG +358 + FLY +111 + TL -769 + TSM -357 + 100T +111 @ +2849 (0.25 units)

Two favorite dogs Parlay (2): FLY +111 + 100T +111 @ +345 (0.25 units)

Parlay (2): TSM/CLG UNDER 22.5 kills + TL/EF UNDER 21.5 kills @ +253 (0.25 units)


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