We hit on our massive 20+ units worth of exposure on Afreeca but it's good to know we were spot on. It was never a question. Windmill slam delivers!
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LCK Summer 2019 - Week 2 Day 2
These are two teams that more or less haven't changed in the last couple of years besides Jin Air's loss of Teddy. Stylistically they're the same, most of the players are the same. If we look back at last season Gen.G won four out of five games between these two and both series. The shortest game in those five was 35:44. The long and short of it is that these two teams are some of the slowest in the world and we typically get long games from both of them, particularly when they face each other.
Jin Air have been trying to be more proactive this season and to some degree they've succeeded. They've been taking tempo based early game drafts in an attempt to improve in this area and have even earned some lane leads without the help of Malrang. Speaking Malrang he's had some creative pathing himself to get things going. Jin Air are doing things right in the early game but it almost always falls completely apart. How? They let it. Jin Air are doing a lot of the right things but they seemingly have this mental block when it comes to closing the deal. For lack of better terms, Jin Air are a bunch of betas! Against a poor KT Rolster squad they had leads in every lane, were taking vision over jungle areas, baron pit, were first to dragons, but then they would just surrender control over the second the enemy threatened anything. It's actually infuriating.
So you might take this topic of discussion and think "Wow! Gelati thinks there is value in this Jin Air line!" when, in fact, I do not. The one thing that Gen.G has is strong lanes and solid late game decision making. If both of these teams get to play the games they want to I think Gen.G wins. Jin Air have also shown they are borderline incapable of recovering from a deficet. If Jin Air botched leads against KT Rolster, a team that is absolutely horrible at closing games in their own special way I believe it's reasonable to expect that it's a problem they haven't solved in a few days.
I'm on Gen.G -1.5 maps fairly aggressively here at five units. Gen.G looked pretty solid in their win against a DAMWON squad that is far superior to Jin Air and we won't hold their blowout loss against Kingzone against them knowing how good Kingzone look right now. I don't like either of these franchises and I haven't been very accurate as a bettor with or against Gen.G so you've been warned but I do think this is a great spot for them. The catch is that Gen.G have a history of playing down to their competition and Jin Air appear to be one of, if not the worst team in the LCK. While I'm confident this is the right wager it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Gen.G punt a game here because that's how things have gone wagering them the past year or so.
Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -135 (5 units)
O/U: Map 1 OVER 34:00 @ -103 (1 unit)
O/U: Map 2 OVER 34:00 @ -103 (1 unit)
This should be a fascinating series. Kingzone look red hot and SK Telecom appear to still be shaking off the rust from MSI still. There are so many angles to this series! First I don't think SKT is as bad as they've shown but that doesn't excuse everything. They've looked lethargic and without a gameplan in almost every game this season. I've really disliked their drafts (relative to SKT's typically excellent drafting).... but SKT have still won half their games. Dropping a game to Jin Air? Ok that's pretty unforgivable but losing a series to Afreeca suddenly doesn't look so bad right? I thought SKT drafted themselves into a hole in all three games in that Afreeca series and they still took one and were competitive in another. The long and short of it is that I'm not worried about SK Telecom long term and I'm going to chalk this up, at least a lot of it to an MSI hangover or a break. They look rusty and tired more than they look incorrect.
Kingzone on the other hand have come out the gates blazing hot smashing both Gen.G and a Sandbox team that has looked red hot as well. Where are all the Naehyun deniers now!?! Really though Kingzone appear to have picked up where they left off last season and I don't think this is a flash in the pan. Kingzone are doing everything right and only elite teams are going to be able to get games off them.
So here's the catch... This line was even money last night. I understand why people would be on Kingzone but historically SK Telecom have a way of silencing critics that rivals only the New England Patriots.Kingzone, stylistically, play in a way that can severely punish SKT but I also think that SKT have superior players at all but the bottom lane. Speaking of that bottom lane, this is arguably the two best bottom lanes on the planet, enjoy this matchup!
I'm going to pass on this game but I'm leaning toward the SK Telecom wake up call moment. If the money keeps coming in on Kingzone I'll probably fire on SK Telecom. I'm thinking maybe like 125ish I'd fire for a unit or two but for now just a slight lean. These should be outstanding games and tell us a lot about these teams.
Prop: OVER 2.5 maps played @ +102 (1 unit)
(betting currently suspended, will update later)
(Leaning SKT Moneyline, looking for +125 or better)
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LMS Summer 2019 - Week 1 Day 1
I'm going to place one unit on the Flash Wolves to sweep this. Yes these two teams were rivals during the Spring split but one of the things I've talked extensively about with this Flash Wolves team is their capacity for growth. People seem to forget that this team is basically a full rebuild and went from new to winning the LMS in one split. I think they have a lot of room to grow and watching their progression over last season as well as at MSI a few weeks ago I've seen them continue to improve game after game. This team is going to be good and hopefully we get a good Flash Wolves team at worlds again this year. I'd go for two or three units on this but I'm willing to respect the "first game" effect. Both teams have all offseason to prep and there is some small chance that Flash Wolves are rusty from MSI but it shouldn't be an issue because they've had an extra two weeks off compared to other regions.
Spread: Flash Wolves -1.5 @ +116 (1 unit)
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