Betting: June 17th (LPL)

We had a really rough weekend that reminded me why I don't bet heavily on the LCS regions anymore. Best of ones are super volatile. The good news is that we got a lot of data points on who the real teams are in multiple regions this weekend and we saw some signs of life from KT Rolster!

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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 4 Day 1

I actually think Vici have been rather feisty compared to the normal selves so far this split and while I'd probably rate Victory Five higher with a gun to my head I don't think they should ever be favored by this much over anybody. I'll take a flier on the dogs here. This could be one of the few matches this split this squad wins but I like their chances. Victory Five tend to play bloody games as well. The combination of these factors makes me like the OVER in kill total as well.

Moneyline: Vici +131 (1 unit)

Prop: Exact Vici 2-0 @ +268 (0.5 units)

O/U: Map 1 OVER 25.5 kills @ -130 (0.5 units)

O/U: Map 2 OVER 25.5Kills @ -130 (0.5 units)

I know I know. It's a Monday and I'm terrible on the LPL on Mondays and Tuesdays but TOP look to be in TOP form already (.... OK that was bad). Rogue Warriors have played two fierce opponents in RNG and FunPlus and either got completely stomped (two of their games) or played a sloppy, bloody game where they had no concept of macro or playing to objectives in fights that they did win. They actually gamed FunPlus into an error that should have been fatal in the early game with a blue fight baiting teleports and getting the blue and some kills but then completely squandered it and got bodied in lanes. I could see a similar thing happening against TOP. Reminder, FunPlus played full AP Nautilus mid in this game, got behind and still won...TOP are pretty close to the level of these other teams. If Rogue Warriors were winning fights and showing me they know what to do this would be different but they like like wild animals on the rift. Against good teams you need to win the fight and then do the correct thing and right now I just don't trust RW to do that.

I got this number at -238 which felt like a shoebox type bet to me but I'll bring it down a notch for the early week malaise factor. I wouldn't touch this at -303 though. In fact I'd prolly place a small wager on the RW +1.5 at this number if I wasn't already exposed but we're just going to let it ride on this one. I still think it's the most likely outcome.

Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ -238 (4 units)