So long story short I've been limited at my primary book which is really unfortuante. I haven't even been doing particularly well the past few weeks but I have a few theories as to what may have set things off. I guess we'll see how it turns out but for the time being I'll write with my theoretical weights but fun time might be over :-/ The stastistics on the sidebar are for bets I've literally placed only.
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LCK Summer 2019 - Week 2 Day 2
As early as this morning you could have gotten this at DAMWON -154 and the -1.5 @ +163. I loved those odds and put what I could on it. I do expect KT to steal some games from people just with the quality of their players at some point and DAMWON aren't exactly a super careful team. DAMWON should 2-0 this but this would be a moderate wager from me. I think KT are basically at the top of the bad team tier. Just like Jin Air they look completely lost and or stupid with a lead so unless their players completely run their opposition over they're not going to win a lot of games this season and DAMWON have the solo laners to match.
At the original number of -154 (-1.5 @ +163) I would have been on a 5 unit/2 unit split, at this new number I'd cut the moneyline and just go for two on the -1.5. That said I'm fairly confident in this one and wouldn't be opposed to firing at -196, it's just a shitty rate.
Spread: DAMWON -1.5 @ +135 (2 units)
I talked a lot about just how good Griffin are on Twitter and on the podcast this week and how they might be the best .500 team ever through this much of the season. This team is damn good and has just run into a handful of the best games I've ever seen from a few of these teams they've faced. Griffin are fine and will likely end the season in the top two. They're doing everything right albeit in their own way. Hanwha look to be one of the bottom two and even with Lava starting again and looking good, HLE have no chance in hell against Griffin and we're actually getting decent line value on this because of Griffin's record. Ignore their record! This was -1.5 @ -149 just hours ago and I would've fired a 5 or 6 unit hammer on that one and felt like I was committing larceny but this is much more down to earth. Still, fire away, Griffin are going to destroy Hanwha.
Spread: Griffin -1.5 @ -182 (5 units)
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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 3 Day 4
I originally liked Dominus in this match but after discussing this at length on the podcast last night and about what myself and the gang thought about the potential of Dominus I found myself liking TOP a lot. TOP not only give it their all every game, but have a severe mismatch between Knight and Twila. We talked a lot about how Dominus don't really have anybody that stands out, they're just solid. I speculated that Changhong is quietly the main carry for this team. It feels like in games where he gets ahead they have a lot of success and look like one of the best teams in the reason but he's not talked about as a carry. Either way, 369 is a "cancel out" type of player. He's like a checking line player in hockey, just trying to neutralize the damage of an opposing teams top laner. If that's the case I actually like TOP a lot here. I do think Dominus are poised to climb up the ladder it's just a matter of when and at what pace. I like the TOP spread for a small amount.
Spread: TOP -1.5 @ -106 (1 unit)
We gushed about OMG on the cast and how Curse was the missing piece. Sometime preseason hype is worth listening to when it's from reliable sources that actually watch the LDL and there was a ton about Curse. He's the second threat to Icon and the distraction this solid bottom lane needed. This team seems to be clicking on all cylinders right now which is why it's kind of weird to me that they're starting sub jungler Y1han tomorrow. I'm still optimistic. LGD on the other hand were a team I was optimistic about going into the season. They were always so fiesty and even if they weren't winning games you could count on them for a fight. That hasn't been the case this season. This team looks lethargic. Maybe they get it together but for the time being I'll ride the hot hand in OMG.
Worth noting that this line moved up from -132
Moneyline: OMG -145 (2 units)
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LEC Summer 2019 - Week 2 - Day 1
I'm tempted to take Excel here but I'm just going to pass this one. I don't feel strongly about either of these teams except that I think both Rogue and Excel will win a few more games than they did last season. They've both improved.
No wager
I love Vitality -172 for my best of one max three units. Sometimes when teams or players do something that looks really bad we overreact. Did Vitality look good last weekend? No but they certainly aren't as bad a team as the tilt showed in their Saturday game last week. You know the plays I'm talking about. This team is going to be fine, maybe they aren't the championship contenders we want them to be right now but they'll be a playoff team and even with Rogue looking good I fully expect Vitality to get back on the horse after a really bizarre start to their season. DON'T OVERREACT TO THINGS THAT LOOK BAD because they usually aren't. Most of the underlying things Vitality are doing well.
Moneyline: Vitality -172 (3 units)
I think Fnatic win this outright and while I think this line is probably close I feel pretty strongly about the confidence Fnatic is playing with right now. Origen have also looked good. Consider this a flag planting bet. I think Fnatic have the edge but you should pick the side you like, you could justify both.
Moneyline: Fnatic -122 (2 units)
Splyce and Schalke... two teams that drive me up a wall. I want to believe Schalke get it together and finish a strong team it's just a matter of when. I think I want to believe this more than I actually do so I'm going to pass this game. This is yet another one that you could justify either side on. I'd say if you think Schalke look better than last week that I like them here but you could also say Splyce have looked solid so far.
No wager (lean Schalke)
At a few points this season I'm going to try to guess the G2 upsets. They're going to punt two to four games this eason and timing that takes some luck and good odds but I could see it happening in this one. I don't actually think SK are likely to win, just more likely than the implied odds of 21.74%.
Moneyline: SK Gaming +360 (1 unit)
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