Betting: June 30th (LCK, LPL)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 4 Day 5

DAMWON have gone to a game three in five out of their seven series played this season but are coming off of a solid 2-0 performance against a good, albeit misguided, Afreeca team. This is a team that has dropped games to SKT, Jin Air, and KT Rolster so I'm rather skeptical to bet the 2-0 but I think it's the right side here. Kingzone were weirdly one dimensional against Hanwha in the game one that HLE won and once they "woke up" and snapped out of it it was a pretty clean dismantling by Kingzone including a few highlight reel Azir ultimates by Naehyun. This feels pretty bad because of how many three game series DAMWON have had this season but their solo lanes, Nuguri inparticular, should be able to run away with this one. DAMWON aren't going to let Hanwha scale like they've wanted to with how they've drafted in their most recent matches.

We'll keep it light because of DAMWON's history of punting games to weaker teams but I do feel the -1.5 is the correct spot here. We're actually going to a s small hedge. I don't do a lot of this type of thing but I think in a situation as specific as this I actually like it. What this means is if DAMWON do win the series but drop a game we recoup half our -1.5 wager and if they win we net a little over two units.

Spread: DAMWON -1.5 @ -119 (3.5 units)

Prop: Exact DAMWON 2-1 @ +205 (0.75 units)

Kingzone haven't look quite as invincible in their past few series. For the most part they're playing very well but they seem to have games where they either lose focus or just get weird tunnelvision like in game one against Hanwha where they just kept trying to 5v5 against Azir/Gangplank. Kingzone are a team that wins with strategy and intelligence and the games where they either don't outsmart you they're a much more mortal team. Kingzone are also vulnerable in their solo lanes. Naehyun and Rascal have been playing really well for the most part this season but they're not on the same level as the elite solo lanes in the LCK and unfortunately Sword and Chovy are in that bunch. Kingzone's two losses are to DAMWON and Afreeca, two teams with elite solo lane talent. Griffin are similar except they're an even better team. (NOTE: The Afreeca series wasn't just the solo lanes losing, Afreeca outmaneuvered Kingzone so I don't want to mischaracterize that match as the DAMWON solo lanes owning only)

I keep trying to pick this game apart but it just continually comes back to the top trio of Griffin vs the bottom lane of Kingzone and I'll take the top trio every time even if I think the bottom lane might be a slight edge to Kingzone. I just can't figure out how Kingzone are going to manage both Sword AND Chovy either in the draft or with in game strategy. These two are dumpstering just about everybody and for a team that struggles with solo lanes I'm not sure any amount of creativity or intelligence can bail them out. It's what makes Griffin such an insane foe to face. I think Kingzone are going to have to sell out for early game and try to run Griffin over, something very few teams have been able to do.

Spread: Griffin -1.5 maps @ -104 (3 units)

---------------------------------

LPL Summer 2019 - Week 5 Day

LGD have been surprisingly competitive against good teams taking games off of RNG and FunPlus (one of two game losses they've had so far this season) but they've also had some losses to bad teams  and have been messing with the jungle position in hopes of replacing the banned veteran Condi after the match fixing scandal. This team should be decent and with another week of practice they could be closer to a solution but EDG are going to be motivated to "get right" after losing their last three matches and LGD could be just what the doctor ordered. EDG have announced their full starting lineup and I expect a sweep here. I know EDG have looked shaky of late but I can't help but think this team gets back to their winning ways. This is one of the better teams in the LPL and unfortunately for a floundering LGD this isn't what they wanted to see in a spot like this. We're also getting great odds for a great teams vs a bad team so I'll take the risk on the spread here.

Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ +101 (2.5 units)

This is exactly the kind of series where RNG punt games and during the podcast this week I pointed this out as an exception because the odds were exceptionally good (-156 at the time) but now that it's up in the -200 range I actually like going the other way here. I think OMG can steal a game here. RNG have been punting games to bad teams a bit less this season specifically but I could definitely see it here even with OMG starting World6 in his first match in the jungle. This is a value selection. I think the odds are just too good not to try OMG +1.5 here even though I think RNG are very likely to 2-0 this.

Spread: OMG +1.5 @ +150 (1 unit)

------------

Parlays:

Parlay (4): RNG ML + EDG ML + GRF ML + DAM ML @ +145 (2 units)

I'm putting half a unit each on these in different permutations of two, three, and four:

RNG -1.5 / OMG +1.5
DAM -1.5
GRF -1.5
EDG -1.5

Also putting a quarter on my patented "worst case scenario" parlay of the following:

"Worst Case" Parlay (4): OMG +1.5 + KZ +1.5 + LGD +1.5 + OMG +1.5 @ +1476 (0.25 units)

Betting: June 29th (LCK, LPL)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 4 Day 4

SKT were a bit wobbly in their first game vs KT where it took them almost 50 minutes to eventually close because Azir is pretty busted past 30 minutes but they got it done. I'm not entirely convinced SKT has "turned it around" but I think there are a few factors at play here against a team like Gen.G that make me love SKT. 

Gen.G quite literally surrender early game both in draft and in game. They don't really force errors but they will capitalize on them. The one thing SKT haven't been doing badly this season is making huge errors in the early game. SKT's problems have been stylistic ones. Drafts, how they navigate early games, etc. Gen.G aren't going to punish that. SKT haven't been immune to late game mistakes either as we saw this past weekend but I'd prefer to see them in that setting than any other with the players and drafts they prefer. SKT are going to have side selection here and they'll get to dictate how they want to play this series. They haven't been opposed to trying uptempo concepts. As a matter of fact we saw them succeed against Griffin with the Sej/Cam/Irelia trio and jump out to a sizeable lead in that game. If we consider how incredibly good Griffin are fundamentally and SKT were able to break it open against them I start to really love the thought of SKT jumping out on Gen.G. 

I got in on this one earlier in the week under the assumption that this line would go up when SKT defeated KT and sure enough it did. Perhaps my only concern is that SKT opt into the coin flip and just handshake to scale to late game. Other than that I love SKT here. I'm not going super heavy on it but I'm going to add on to my early week wager which should signify my confidence in SKT here. Think of this more as a condemnation of Gen.G than an endorsement of SKT.

Moneyline: SK Telecom -139 (1 unit)(initial wager)

Spread: SKT -1.5 maps @ +191 (0.5 units)(initial wager)

Moneyline: SK Telecom -185 (1 unit)(add on)

Once or twice a year there is the perfect storm, a combination of great film, bad luck, an actual bad performance, good luck for a bad team, and if they happen in the exact order you can get completely blown out. This is what has happened to Afreeca this season to me in the past three series. Sometimes it's with a bad team improving not a good team letting down. I put a heavy emphasis on film review and everything I've seen points to Afreeca being an OUTSTANDING team. Senan can be a bit of a liability sometimes but for the most part an excellent, world class team playing the game with the right idea at the moment. Similar to JDG's playoff run I'm not going to let a few flukey, weird performances convince me that all of my film review has been wrong. It's just not how I operate.

Afreeca are in a weird funk. After weird back to back losses I feel that they perhaps overcorrected. Against Gen.G they punted early game both times, once was honestly to a "go next" situation the other was just mistakes and then an unbelievable outplay by Life on Rakan. In their next match against DAMWON they went bit more late game, something they haven't really done at all this season by selecting the Corki/Sivir in game one and Jayce, Azir, Sivir game two. Neither of these are particularly "all-in" on late game and can have priority in certain matchups but not the matchups they went with here. Afreeca are a priority team that snowballs advantages through good play between their lanes and jungle so seeing them switch up like this is either alarming because they've lost confidence or just a bump in the road as they're experiementing a bit. I'm choosing to believe in the latter but you don't need to feel the same way.

KT aren't good. They're improving a bit here and there but a lot of the same problems are still. Their drafts are bizarre and not in a good way and they still have a lot of trouble closing. I think this is a perfect get right game for Afreeca. I know I said the same thing against DAMWON but I think DAMWON are at least a tier better than KT possibly more. I will likely add on more to this once I see Afreeca draft an uptempo composition like the ones they were succeeding with earlier in the season but I'm willing to trust that they'll want to break out of this slump they've been in.

Every once in awhile you get blown out but in the long term FILM DOESN'T LIE. I put the Afreeca -1.5 bet in earlier in the week before the DAMWON series assuming they'd win that. I still feel really great about it and said that even if they lost to DAMWON that I'd still love it unless it was an absolute disaster. It wasn't so we stick with it, no hedge.

Moneyline: Afreeca -185 (3.5 units BOOK MAX)

Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +142 (1 unit)(initial)

---------------------------

LPL Summer 2019 - Week 4 Day 5

I spoke about it earlier this week and on the podcast that I'm trying to avoid LPL -1.5's but TOP and FunPlus are my exception teams. I'm not sure what's going on with WE right now. I can't put a finger on it but there's just this weird vibe and Kalvin (@RulerRSama) echoed my sentiment on this one. This team either feels like it's going to implode or explode. It feels like there's a lot going on behind the scenes that we aren't privy to and it's affecting the players. It's just a hunch but I don't really like WE much anyway and think this is not a playoff team this season. I'm actually going to take the TOP -1.5 here. The number we're getting is decent because WE are coming off of a 2-0 win against EDG but it was their first win of the season. Against the other good teams they've been completely obliterated. Even Suning whooped on this team. I'm going to put a few units on the -1.5 here. TOP tend to take care of business just like FunPlus does. They're not like IG and FPX.

Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ -128 (3 units)

Invictus have announced that they're starting Duke in the top lane. Rookie is still out which means Forge gets another series. I don't think this entirely affects how I'd bet this series. Perhaps we like JDG +1.5 a bit more than we already did but it's not exactly like Duke is a bad player he's just not TheShy. I actually think Invictus probably 2-0 this still but we're not going to bet it.

No wager (lean JDG +1.5)

----------------------

Parlays:

Parlay (2): SKT ML + AF ML @ +137 (2 units)

Parlay (3): TOP ML + AF ML + SKT ML @ +196 (1 unit)

Betting: June 28th (LCK, LPL, Rift Rivals NA/EU)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week

Hanwha look like a team without an identity to me. They're not as bad as Jin Air but they honestly look like just as much of a mess. They'll draft for late and try to play early and vice versa. It's just perplexing. HLE have been swept by Griffin, Afreeca, and Sandbox. They took a game off Gen.G who we know is exploitable. Their wins came against the weak KT Rolster and Jin Air. Hanwha are almost definitely going to finish 9th and they're not even an optimistic future type of 9th. The only way I could see them taking a game is if Lava is able to jump out on Naehyun in one of these games but I'm not seeing that.

We're getting a lot of value with Kingzone here because they're coming off two losses in their last three matches to Afreeca and DAMWON and Hanwha are coming off of a 2-0 victory but it was against Jin Air. Anything remotely close to even money feels unfair. I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth here.

Spread: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ -128 (3.5 units BOOK MAX)

Sandbox should handle Jin Air. There's justification for betting Jin Air here because the value is nuts but I'm going to stay away. Sandbox look like a world class team right now.

No wager

---------------------------

LPL Summer 2019 - Week

We talked quite a bit about this one on the podcast and wondered simply "what are we missing here?" Really though what is it? Is there a sub we don't know about? I think this is simply the pre-season rating the books had on BiliBili was slightly higher and the 6-8 start vs Suning's 8-6 start has balanced it out. That's about all I can come up with. BiliBili have faced a really tough schedule including TOP, LNG, EDG, FPX and then two easier ones in OMG and V5. On the other side, Suning have faced that absolute murderers row of.... Dominus, JDG, WE, LGD, Vici and then the tougher Invictus (without Rookie). 

Suning have looked better than I thought they would based on my roughly 11th-13th power ranking before the season started after losing XiaoAL but that doesn't mean they're good. BiliBili haven't looked quite as good as I thought they would. I figured they'd take some games against the tougher teams they faced but they've been 2-0'd for the most part by the good teams.

I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth here. BiliBili are AT WORST a lower playoff seed to me. Suning had a decent start against a really easy schedule while BiliBili have had a really tough one and are still close to .500. I absolutely love the BiliBili moneyline here AND the sweep. We're splitting action between the exact BBG 2-0 AND the Suning to win a map? NO because they're both relatively low limit and I wanted more exposure.

Moneyline: BiliBili -112 (4.5 units BOOK MAX)

Prop: Exact BiliBili 2-0 @ +189 (1 unit BOOK MAX)

Prop: SN to win 1 map? NO @ +218 (0.75 unit BOOK MAX)

I don't want people to think this is an overreaction to RW upsetting EDG the other day. Rogue Warriors are not a good team at all but they have jumped out on people with early leads. LNG are a team that's been playing a more slow paced, deathball/5v5 fighting style akin to the old Snake teams years ago and it's been working for them. I think this opens a window for RW to actually jump out to a big enough lead to steal one of these and perhaps even two. If they were able to do it to EDG (albeit they were playing badly), they could definitely do it to an LNG team that has impressed but is definitely due for some regression. They're probably a playoff team but I don't think they're as good as this start has people thinking. I LOVE THESE ODDS for RW to upset one more. We're getting insane value so we're going to try it.

Moneyline: Rogue Warriors +404 (0.5 units)

Spread: RW +1.5 maps @ +142 (1 unit)

----------------------------

Rift Rivals 2019 - NA vs EU Day 2

Long story short here I didn't like a lot of bets today even looking ahead before the absolute slaughter we saw today. I like Liquid to upset G2 for similar reasons to why I liked Cloud 9 yesterday PLUS the revenge factor from not only day one but MSI Finals. It's a bit narrative driven but how also how often do you get to see Liquid +227? I honestly don't care who the opponent it I'm going to consider it especially in a best of one. As for the Liquid over Origen pick I still think TL are the better team and put this pick in earlier in the week. Origen have looked good but TL are on a different level than TSM or C9.

Moneyline: Liquid +227 vs G2 (0.5 units)

Moneyline: Liquid -122 (1.5 units)

--------------------

Parlay:

Parlay (2): Kingzone -1.5 + BiliBili ML @ +236 (1 unit)

Parlay (3): Kingzone -1.5 + BiliBili ML + RW +1.5 @ +714 (0.5 units)

Betting: June 27th (LCK, NA/EU Rift Rivals)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 4 Day 2

After watching the VODs for Gen.G/Afreeca I have to say that game one was a bit alarming but not for the reasons a lot of people might think. Senan has been the one weak link on Afreeca this season, he's been caught out way too many times. Sure we could say it's a symptom of the low mobility tanks he's been playing but I don't think that's been the case. He's been downright wrong a handful of times. It happened again early in this game as Aiming and Senan overextended into a Reksai gank that might not have been predictable but should have been on their radar and it didn't look like it was by how they reacted. Honestly that's not a game ending mistake against a team like Gen.G or even against al ot of good teams but it's a notable one. The fight that really broke the game open was at herald where Life just made an unbelievable play on Rakan and turned what would have been a close fight into a route. Sometimes players make big plays and sometimes good teams are the victims of it. How many Echo Fox Fenix plays have we seen over the years and that team isn't good. Game two was just a really flukey level one that honestly was a lot closer than it looked upon further review. In a scrim that's the type of thing that warrants a "go next." 

What I'm saying is that there were things Afreeca did wrong against Gen.G but not to overreact to a completely bizarre series of events. Afreeca are a good team that had a weird series loss to Gen.G on one mistake and a ridiculous Rakan ult and a weird level one. It was two games that simply got away from them and we shouldn't hold that against them as much as people seem to be. It's as if people completely forgot the great series Afreeca played against Sandbox literally the match before this Gen.G loss and we all see how good Sandbox is. 

DAMWON are coming off of an outstanding back and forth series with Kingzone but as I discussed in that blog post, I actually think DAMWON pose a particularly daunting challenge for Kingzone in that their solo laners are exceptional compared to their own. While that didn't exactly play out to be the only reason DAMWON won, it was certainly a contributing factor. The bottom line for me is that DAMWON do look good but they're sloppy at times and their macro decision making can be suspect. There's also those games where they only have eyes for Nuguri and that's exploitable. I also think they've benefitted from a relatively easy schedule that has so far included all but one team that I'd rank worse than them. They've faced SKT (2-1), Jin Air (2-1), KT Rolster (2-1) and Gen.G (1-2 loss). Hanwha is the one they haven't faced yet. They've gone to three games against all the bottom half teams except Hanwha  and even lost to Gen.G. The point I'm making is that DAMWON are pretty good but they're being severely overrated here. You could also argue that Kingzone handing over Sona/Tahm in game one was sort of an auto win (I don't care what the winrates say Sona is busted on this patch). 

I'm slamming the Freecs. This is a classic case of a great team being undervalued because of one really weird result and a good team being severely overvalued based on their record. There's no way in hell Afreeca should be an underdog against anybody that isn't Kingzone, Sandbox or Griffin right now. I'm not saying DAMWON are bad but this is a ridiculous line and Afreeca should be favored. I fully expect Afreeca to win this match 2-0 with maybe one or both games being somewhat close but uptempo. 

Moneyline: Afreeca +116 (3.5 units BOOK MAX)

Prop: Exact Afreeca 2-0 @ +241 (1 unit BOOK MAX)

Prop: DAM to win a map? NO @ +275 (1.5 unit BOOK MAX)

O/U: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -114 (1 unit)

O/U: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -114 (1 unit)

Before we dive into this I'd be ignorant not to mention Haru, Mata, AND Faker being benched in game two against Griffin after what appeared to be a close game. Personally I thought Khan was more to blame for this loss but that it was a relatively close game where SKT were actually doing a lot of the right things against the team I'd call the best in the world right now. We have no way of knowing what's happening in comms right now or the mental state of the players. Maybe it's too many cooks in the kitchen? Maybe it's stress and pressure from the rough start? The one thing I do know is that in the past when SK Telecom has slumped Kkoma hasn't been afraid to bench anyone including Faker and it hasn't always worked out and it hasn't always been a one or two game thing. We don't know who is going to start tomorrow but I'm going to operate under the assumption that it will be Khan, Haru, Faker, Teddy, and Mata. Perhaps the benching wakes them up.

I know SK Telecom have looked bad. I get it. I also get that this team is playing a style that's suboptimal and unlike Griffin and, to a lesser extent Sandbox, who are doing this successfully because they're so damn good, SKT just can't seem to do the same. With that said I think they've faced the top four teams in the LCK and, depending on how you feel about this very SK Telecom team, the fifth best as well in DAMWON. SK Telecom have faced in order of most recent to least recent Griffin, DAMWON, Sandbox, Kingzone, Afreeca, and that weird series against Jin Air. They've taken games from Kingzone, Afreeca, and DAMWON. I don't care what you think of this team right now but ANY team was going to struggle through this schedule. 

So the question becomes more a matter of what to expect moving forward and what we've seen from the film so far. SKT haven't been completely rolling out the red carpet for enemy teams like Gen.G have been. Whichever jungler is playing has been trying to make things happen but they just haven't been able to, partially because of draft problems and partially due to execution. To be clear I don't want to blame all of SKT's woes on their schedule being difficult. They've had problems for sure but I can't help but think we'll see a return to form. They always ramp it up as the season develops and they just played at least one competitive game against Griffin in their last series and, perhaps more importantly, they showed a willingness to play uptempo against arguably the best defensive team on the planet and it was working even with some hesitation at times. SKT look like they're starting to get the right idea at least a little bit.

People are quick to forget things when expectations are so high. This team has looked downright dreadful in a lot of people's eyes because they're expected to be world class. SKT are still taking games off of some of the top teams in the region and they were playing an inferior style AND "looked off." Imagine what this team could do if they ever "get it together" just a little bit. I think KT Rolster is just what the doctor ordered. I talked a lot after their first two series about how SKT picked the wrong schedule to have a "rusty" or slow start to post MSI because of this stretch. They're also going to have a tough stretch to finish the season. IF SKT have any hope at all of making playoffs, something I think they can still do by the way, then they need to win these next few series and I feel they're completely capable of doing that. I've seen the right idea enough here and I think they have a good chance at taking down a KT team that's looked worse than their record (like Gen.G) regardless of subs or starters. I want to see this team get hungry and not punt away the entire summer season for developmental purposes. 

I'm not going heavy but I like SKT at these odds. This team can't possibly be this bad. I also think their strengths and KT's weaknesses lineup perfectly. SKT still have the players, draft focus, and mentality to be a light game monster team and KT Rolster have done nothing but punt leads and fail to close games. However this is also The Telecom War, perhaps the saddest ever with two struggling teams but I think SKT should get the better of KT here.

Moneyline: SK Telecom -169 (1 unit)

Spread: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ +153 (0.25 units)

------------------------

NA vs EU Rift Rivals 2019 - Day 1

Anybody that followed me last year knows that I got torched at Rift Rivals 2018 so I'm a bit gunshy heading in here but not just because of that. The truth is we don't know how teams handle these sort of exhibition situations. Some teams try really hard, others do the same thing they've been doing, others treat it like a bit of a break midseason and don't prepare as hard and others, yet, have a lot of pride and care a lot. We could sit here and try to predict who will react in what way but I think it's kind of a waste of time. I only have one selection and one lean for now so I'll just talk about those picks.

I am so bored by Origen but they're a really good team that has put up respectable appearances against two really good teams in Fnatic and G2. TSM ... well honestly I'm not sure what TSM is I don't even know if they're the 3rd best team in NA right now. I just think Origen are straight up better than TSM by a big enough margain that I'm actually going to lay two units on them here. This is rather aggressive considering the points I talked about in my opening paragraph but this was the only line that really screamed value to me.

Moneyline: Origen -139 (2 units)

UPDATE: Added 1 more unit @ -111, for some reason the money is pouring in on TSM. We'll pounce!

Perhaps it just feels weird to see Liquid as a dog but I think this might be a tiny bit of overreaction to TL's "soft" start and Fnatic's win this week against G2. Again I remind people that these are best of one regions and to take game results with a grain of salt. Unless you see very specific things that trouble you on a fundamental level to mostly ignore the result. Have we forgotten that Team Liquid soundly defeated Invictus just a couple months ago? I'll lay a unit on the dogs here.

Moneyline: Liquid +108 (1 unit)

I know I did these in reverse order but deal with it. This last one is actually more of a bet on variance and cheese. Cloud 9 are such a bizarre team sometimes and when you get two teams like this in the same room some really weird things can happen. Combine that with the fact that it's the first game of the tournament so everyone is blind, and the fact that both teams are willing to draft aggressively and creatively and I think a lot of things can happen even if I don't think Cloud 9 are even in the same ZIP Code as G2 overall as a team I just like the situation and the odds we're getting. Consider this a bet on Cloud 9 + first game of tournament variance + best of one variance against G2.

Moneyline: Cloud 9 +238 (0.5 unit)

O/U: OVER 28.5 total kills @ +101 (1 unit)

Betting: June 26th (LCK, LPL)

LCK Summer 2019 - Week 4 Day 1

Sandbox look like one of the best teams in the LCK. They aren't perfect by any stretch but if you look at their schedule and how their only loss is to the excellent Kingzone DragonX it's rather impressive. I still think Griffin is a stronger team at the style Sandbox seem to be emulating. I also think Kingzone and Afreeca are playing a more optimized way of playing the game right now despite their recent hiccups. That said Sandbox's solo lanes and jungle are absolutely ridiculous and playing at an otherworldly level right now. It's really tough to match them in those areas. 

Gen.G are a very weird team this season, as usual. I think their results don't accurately describe the quality of this team. First, their overall schedule has been relatively weak, they've faced Hanwha, Jin Air, KT Rolster, and DAMWON, four of the bottom five teams (in which I'd include Gen.G but that's a different topic). Second, their most recent series against Afreeca, and allow my to digress a bit here, they were on the good end of some luck in a game two level one that could have gone either way and went 5-0 for them. It was the kind of flukey situation that warrants a "go next" in scrimmages. Game one in that series, while impressive, also hinged on one massive play by Life at the herald fight landing a Rakan ult on four people. You could argue Afreeca shouldn't have bother contesting but if that ult doesn't hit exactly the way it did this probably ends up something like a one for one and herald for Gen.G instead of the absolute stomp of a fight that allowed Gen.G to blow open the game. I'm not making excuses for Afreeca, before that herald fight in game one Aiming and Senan were up WAY WAY too far against a Reksai and were rightfully punished for it. 

I know I spent a good bit of time there on the Afreeca series but I think it was an important one because I think a lot of people are going to be ready to hop on the Gen.G bandwagon and I'm here to tell you to stay off. I won't say that Gen.G are a bad team. Clearly they aren't. This team is extremely linear and extremely lucky. The one thing they're good at (late game) has been spoon fed to them in four of their last five games. Against HLE in game one Tempt not only takes heal for no particular reason but gets shoved out and instead of recalling sits under his tower allowing Gen.G to roam as five to bot side for a post dragon dive. After that HLE full tilt force this garbage fight top and feed Cuvee and Kuzan and another tower. Against AF... well we talked about that. In that same Hanwha series this team got completely outplayed in the mid game by the pretty clear cut 9th place team in the league. This is a team that lost 1-2 to a mediocre at best KT Rolster team. I'll give them credit for the DAMWON win, it was a slugfest of a series but really how good is DAMWON either?

The point I'm making is this team is DEFINITELY NOT AS GOOD AS THEIR RECORD. I might be signing myself to get blown out here because I don't think Sandbox are perfect or anything I'm all over the Sandbox sweep here and it's my early pick of the week. Gen.G are a classic case of ignoring the score sheets and records and watching the film. This team simply can't keep getting way with picking Gangplank and Azir. Then again maybe they can, this is the LCK after all. It's a risk I'm willing to take and I think Sandbox are a smart enough team to know that even though they want to also play the scaling game, they shouldn't in this case. I also think Sandbox's solo lanes should have a field day here and that's no disrespect to Cuvee and Kuzan. Combine these factors with the fact that I think we're getting a lot of value because Gen.G are coming off back to back wins and I feel confident in firing for a mixed five units here.

EARLY WEEK PICK OF THE WEEK!

Spread: Sandbox -1.5 @ +117 (2.5 units Book Max)

Prop: Exact Sandbox 2-0 @ -102 (2.5 units Book Max)

Simply put this is unbettable outside of props and over/unders. I think you could make an argument for the OVER 19.5 kills. Griffin have been extremely disciplined this season against both good and bad teams until last series where they seemingly cracked open a couple cold ones and opened up a can of whoopass on KT Rolster.

As much as I love seeing this team loosen up and style on people the truth is that they don't want to and don't have to. It's pretty crazy to me that I'm passing on such a low number but Griffin are that good. They're simply going to choke Jin Air out of this game. I don't hate the under 31:00. Griffin have won five of their last six games in under 28:05 and those were matches against the similarly poor (at least right now) SK Telecom, Hanwha Life, and KT Rolster. Jin Air struggled to even give us a competitive game against Hanwha. I'm going to take the under 31:00 for a unit both maps one and two. 

O/U: Map 1 UNDER 31:00 @ -130 (1.5 units)

O/U: Map 2 UNDER 31:00 @ -130 (1.5 units)

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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 5 Day 3

I've been doing a lot of research into underdogs, how many series goes to a third game, and stuff like that for the LPL and unfortunately haven't found too much outside of specific teams that are exceptions. Before the season started I would have told you this was free money on the Dominus -1.5 but, as it turns out, the LPL is a strange and mysterious creature. Dominus haven't looked themselves and Vici could be just the medicine the doctor ordered but quite frankly I'm skeptical. I'm just going to pass this game and likely regret it when Dominus smash VG. I might fire on this later tonight though who knows.

No wager (STRONG lean Dominus -1.5)

Victory Five have quietly gone 3-2 with a 7-5 game score. They beat Invictus 2-1 and lost to BiliBili 0-2 but their other series have been against OMG, Vici, and LGD. OMG look decent sometimes but really not a bunch of killers here. It's hard to tell how good V5 are but they've won three in a row now. FunPlus have lost a single game this season and it was to the similarly rated LGD. If we look at Spring split, FunPlus went to a game three in eight out of fifteen series however of those eight, only three were to "weaker" teams (Snake, LGD, and SinoDragon) the rest were to other top six squads. FunPlus take care of business against bad teams and while laying -278 against a team that's won three matches in a row looks dumb I'd say it's a fairly safe play to take FunPlus tomorrow. If you don't like that then I don't hate the V5 +1.5 at these odds but I'll likely be abstaining from this match outside of parlays.

No wager (STRONG lean FPX -1.5 @ -278)

Betting: June 25th (LPL)

LPL Summer 2019 - Week 5 Day 2

I still don't trust this LNG team. I can't quite put a finger on why so take my lack of faith with a grain of salt. They've played close series against medicre teams in JDG and Team WE but also smashed IG and Dominus. Now Dominus has been pretty disappointing so maybe they're a mediocre team, and maybe IG during that first week could be considered a bad team but that's up for debate. BiliBili was able to take them down on Friday but I think LNG probably could have won that series as well. The point I'm getting at is that I don't know what's up with this team other than they look a lot like the old Snake teams in that if you choose to teamfight them they're good but if you can run them around the map or do anything out of the ordinary they look lost. They're good at one thing and one thing only and that's 5v5 teamfighting. LGD have also been a mixed bag this season with respectable performances against FunPlus and RNG only to be cleaned up by Suning and punt a game to Victory 5, a team I'd expect to finish in the bottom four. 

This is a really tough series to pin down but I think LNG getting plus odds to sweep is probably correct. Look, I do think LNG are due for some regression, I don't think this team as quite as good as their record but I'm not that confident about it. Still I think LGD are still getting their legs under them after the whole Condi scandel. I'm going light on this one though because I'm not that confident despite it looking correct.

Spread: LNG -1.5 maps @ +109 (1 unit)

It should be noted that I'm firing on this under the assumption that iBoy is starting but that I'm not going to hedge it if Hope is announced. Hope had a rough series against WE but he also wasn't helped a lot in that process. I'm not sure why they'd draft Yasuo into the WE comp or if it was just a different plan gone awry but I can't help but think he may have been a little tilted going into game two. EDG did not play a good series against WE. It's their first weak series of the year and I'm not going to look into it too much. This is a solid team that took a night off, much like Afreeca did against Gen.G on Sunday morning. It's rich but I'm firing on this before we get iBoy news that perhaps pushes this even further. RW are bad, they'll probably get a game win at some point but this team is reassembling itself and is essentially in full rebuild. I don't expect them to win a lot of games this year and I'll be rolling sweeps on them until they prove me otherwise.

Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ -238 (2 units)

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Parlays:

I'm going to do a hedge parlay as well as a parlay of these two picks here. It basically says if the worst possible thing happens on our picks today then we're insulated a bit. I realize cutting an already rich -238 is pretty rough but it seems when it rains it pours and I guess I'm feeling a bit superstitious right now. It's really easy for this slate to go wrong for me so we can potentially hit nice on a weird day or hedge and basically recover our wagers.

"Hedge" Parlay (2): LGD +1.5 + RW +1.5 @ +352 (0.5 units)

Parlay (2): EDG -1.5 + LNG -1.5 @ +207 (1 unit)

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Parlay (4): EDG -1.5 + Griffin -1.5 + Sandbox -1.5 + SKT ML @ +539 (0.25 units)

Betting: June 21st-23rd (LCK, LPL, LEC, NA LCS Full weekend!)

Long story short I'm going to be on the road for a wedding this weekend but I still wanted to provide you guys with my selections. Again I'm still sorting through a lot at the moment and have fallen behind on my stats but they'll be updated sometime next week. We're down for the week.

I went into more detail on some of these because I found them much more interesting than others. Probably has something to do with the stakes too ;-)

Enjoy your weekend everybody!!

The Gold Card Podcast - Episode 17 - Long shots for everyone!

(Podbean)

iTunes Link

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LCK Summer 2019 - Week 3 Days 3, 4, and 5

Arguably the two best top trios in the world battling against each other after both starting off red hot. GET THE POPCORN READY! 

This one should be an absolute slugfest. Two of the best solo lane tandems in the world duking it out, two young junglers that are playing at an otherworldly level, two bot lanes that are often forgotten amidst their elite company in the top half. Afreeca and Sandbox have even faced the exact same schedule! So how do we break this down?

First of all, Sandbox will have side selection advantage which could either be the tiebreaker or not matter at all with how creative these teams can get in the draft. I'm not factoring that in for that exact reason but thought it was worth mentioning. The top lane matchup, perhaps the most fascinating on the map, between arguably the two best top laners in the league could go either way. You could point to the fact that Summit has only played four champions or that Kiin has played five Aatrox games but these two are elite and to attempt to lazily use one of those as a narrtive would be stupid. The same goes for mid lane, the same goes for jungle. The bottom lanes are where this gets a little spicy and potentially abuseable. Both Senan and Joker have heavily relied on playing tank supports like Tahm Kench, Nautilus, and Galio this split. Both have played Lux as well and I'm sure have plenty more in their arsenals but I'd expect this pool to be pinched for these drafts which will make both teams have a bit of a new look. Interestingly, both supports tend to be the weakest players on their teams in these current iterations. Not to say they're weak by any stretch just that they're the most mistake prone of the ten players.

I think this matchup is even if you just look player to player and even team to team as they both have basically the same record against the same schedule. I'm going with Afreeca though and the reason is that I think they're better at playing with and around priority and at establishing it in the draft. Sandbox are playing a bit closer to the style of Griffin, absorbing early pressure and turning it back on their opponents albeit somewhat less precisely than Griffin does. I look at this Afreeca team and how they completely ran over a nearly immaculate defensive team in Griffin in a game, and utterly smashed Kingzone, a fellow priority focused team. I was going to go a unit on the dog or nothing in this and just enjoy the match (which I will anyway) but I'm going to be firing for two units on Afreeca ML. It's not slight against Sandbox at all I just think Afreeca have the solo laners to match them and have been the better tempo team which is how Sandbox have lost games. You could argue that Afreeca have punted a lead or been sloppy setting up and I'd buy that but this game will ultimately come down to who makes fewer mistakes, I'll take the offensive team in that spot almost any day.

Should be a great one with how great these two squads look right now!

Moneyline: Afreeca -101 (2 units)

I actually think this is winnable for DAMWON. Kingzone haven't struggle with much but when they have it was against elite solo lanes and DAMWON certainly have that. My concern is that DAMWON have made a lot of mistakes, some big, some small even in their wins this season and Kingzone have been downright ruthless in punishing. Kingzone should be able to force errors out of DAMWON and win this series but I wouldn't be shocked if DAMWON took a game or even won this. Still I think the correct and most likely outcome is a Kingzone 2-0 so we'll take the -1.5 @ +108 for a single unit. Kingzone are the real deal folks.

Spread: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +108 (1 unit)

Another fascinating matchup as Korea keeps delivering this weekend! It feels wrong to see SK Telecom as +228 dogs. They honestly haven't even looked that bad it's just that that look awful compared to what they were at MSI. However, this is a decidedly different team than that one at the moment. SKT don't appear to have any kind of plan to me and if they do it's really convoluted, enough so that I'm not seeing it. It's not for lack of trying. Clid and Haru both have attempted to get the ball rolling in these games to mixed results. SKT aren't just rolling over and dying. The real problem has been in the drafts/gameplan. SKT are just showing up and playing and I don't know if it's an MSI hangover or that they feel they can get a Worlds spot while coasting but they're now 1-4 in matches. Three of those matches, Sandbox, Kingzone, and Afreeca, now look forgivable given the form those teams are currently in but punting a game to Jin Air and playing a downright weird series against DAMWON, a good but inconsistent team, are cause for alarm. 

I said it after their first few series that this wasn't just a hangover. Kkoma and the coaching staff have a history of weird drafts and that's never stopped SKT from being a great team because as weird as the drafts might be they always had a definitive plan, even if it's a suboptimal one (protect the Lucian anyone?).  I don't know what SKT is thinking in some of these drafts. Lulu mid against Karthus jungle and no DPSer on your team besides Sona? Oi....

All of this negative stuff said I do think SKT will get things together. This team is simply too talented not to it's just a matter of when. Unfortunately for SKT I think Griffin are not an opponent to "get right" against. This is one of the best teams in the world regardless of what their record says (watch the tape) and they came out with a completely different look this morning going all in on early game, abusing the broken Yuumi, and running Pyke at ADC. Griffin are confident, super disciplined, and for lack of better terms just do what SKT do better than SKT. 

The counter argument is that SKT destroyed Griffin in finals and perhaps some nerves combined with SKT "getting right" is enough here. On the podcast I talked about how these teams played close series during the regular season which is true...  but have all been Griffin 2-0's except for one Griffin 2-1 last season since they joined the league in LCK Summer 2018. 

Would it surpise me to see SKT show up for this match? No. The thing is even if they're in form again I'd take Griffin. If you haven't read the last two Griffin matches you can go back and do that. I gush about them plenty there. This team is unbelievably good and while it feels wrong not to take SKT at these odds I think, in this case, it's actually right. There is a good argument for the OVER 2.5 maps played at +126. I think that's reasonable but I'm sticking with Griffin to 2-0.

Spread: Griffin -1.5 maps @ -106 (1 unit)

This matchup is actually really interesting as a bettor but not particularly as an analyst. These two teams are pretty bad. I know Hanwha took a game off Gen.G this morning but if you watched that series the truth of the matter is that neither of those teams deserved to win that one. IT WAS UGLY! I actually am done with Gen.G even after that win this morning. They had no understanding of how to operate basic power picks (Karthus no ult for how long?!?). Their absolute disregard for the early game is beyond disrespectful... anyway I digress but partially because I think it's important to know that Hanwha shouldn't celebrate any part of that season. It should be cause for concern that you can't punish GP + Azir with Xin and get up in the other junglers face.... but I digress again. 

I'm actually doing it. I'm taking Jin Air. These two teams are even to me, maybe slight edge to Hanwha. Hanwha isn't -476 better than anybody in the LCK including Jin Air. The value we're getting here is absolutely obscene and despite losing, Jin Air look like a team with a new identity and they've been establishing leads even if they end up just giving them away. I think they can get one here. Ask yourself this. Is the bad version of SKT we've seen better than Hanwha Life? Because Jin Air should have 2-0'd SKT (again go watch that series). I can't believe I'm betting on Jin Air but this is obscene and the value is too good. As a matter of fact we're going all the way here and betting the exact scores and the +1.5 at plus money as well. Jin Air can win this series and this is going to be their Super Bowl. They've actually looked pretty good relative to themselves recently and Hanwha are nothing special.

Moneyline: Jin Air +309 (1 unit)

Spread: Jin Air +1.5 @ +103 (2 units)

Prop: Exact Jin Air 2-1 @ +467 (0.5 units)

Prop: Exact Jin Air 2-0 @ +535 (0.5 units)

I put this bet in on Monday before Gen.G's horrific showing this morning because I was so sure of it. Listen folks, Afreeca have a very reasonable chance to win the LCK this split. This isn't a fluke it's real and unless we see a catastrophic breakdown they'll be in the conversation. Gen.G are not only not that great, but their playstyle is the worst possible thing to play against Afreeca. If Afreeca can obliterate a Griffin defense what are they going to do to Gen.G? This is easy money. I'm limited currently but feel free to load up on this one my PICK OF THE WEEK

PICK OF THE WEEK

Spread: Afreeca -1.5 @ +128 (Book Max 2.75 units)

Prop: Exact Afreeca 2-0 @ -137 (Book Max 4 units)

Prop: Gen.G to win a map? NO @ -112 (2 units)

Total 8.75 units wagered 

Similarly to Gen.G I'm completely done with this KT Rolster team. They might improve over the course of the season but until then we're going to get at least some value in them as dogs. I know Sandbox aren't perfectly clean but they're doing a pretty good Griffin impression right now and while KT have the players to hang in the solo lanes they simply don't have the team chops to hang with the current iteration of Sandbox. After the abysmal series we saw from Hanwha/Gen.G this morning AND the abysmal series we saw from KT/Gen.G on Sunday, I'm willing to say that those three teams should probably have reduced expectations and that they'll be the bottom four along with Jin Air. KT can get leads but they don't know what to do with them, and when they get behind they're clueless. They're like a slightly better version of Jin Air with some hall of fame players (so sad :(*). I weirdly hope that I'm wrong but Sandbox are legit and should stomp KT Rolster and considering the gap between these two I actually think we're getting a slight value at -123.

Spread: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ -123 (Book Max 3.5 units)



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LPL Summer 2019 - Week 4 Days 4, 5, and 6

I'm still hesitant to trust LNG/Snake. They're doing all the right things and appear to be emulating FunPlus with how they're focusing heavily on new midlaner Plex. Here's the thing with LNG. They might be real. There is a chance Plex was the missing piece and that this team will be a contender but I doubt it. LNG have had a relatively easy schedule. Their hardest match was against the bad version of Invictus we saw in week one without Baolan and a lethargic rest of the map. Credit where it's due for beating IG but other than that they've gone 2-1 vs WE, 2-0 vs a disappointing Dominus team, and 2-1 against the back to reality JDG. 

Chris had a really good read on the podcast and it reminded me of two points. If you change their title back to Snake, do you trust LNG? Perhaps that's why I'm so reserved because I've seen this movie before. It also made me realize that sometimes it's better not to have that preconception. LNG are doing a lot of things well. Sometimes it's sloppy but they have the right idea and they're firing on all of their cylinders right now. BiliBili on the other hand have faced the elite EDG where they lost 0-2, an up and coming OMG squad where they won 2-1, lost 0-2 to the FunPlus Revenge Tour, and swiftly stomped Victory 5 in their first game. BiliBili have had a much harder schedule. We're getting A TON of value in BiliBili here and even if they haven't looked quite as sharp as their Spring selves I think this team is going to hit an easier part of their schedule here that starts with LNG. 

I absolutely love BiliBili here. The moneyline, the +1.5 @ -145, the 2-0 @ +368. This is a computer model looking at BiliBili's 4-5 game record vs LNG's blistering 8-2 start. Regression goes both ways ladies and gents. Enjoy it!

Moneyline: BiliBili +197 (Book Max 2 units)

Spread: BiliBili +1.5 maps @ -145 (Book Max 4 units)

Prop: Exact BiliBili 2-0 @ +368 (Book Max 0.75 units)

Prop: BBG to win at least one map? Y @ -145 (Max 3 units)

Prop: LNG to win at least one map? N @ +414 (0.5 units)

It's been announced that Hope will be playing ADC this in place of iBoy. The line has since moved to EDG -500 the -1.5 is now @ -141.

I don't think this changes much to be honest. Hope played some last split and while he only recorded two wins in his seven starts it wasn't necessarily because of poor performance on his part. Team WE look like a team in shambles right now and it's not just because of the difficult schedule they've faced either. Something isn't clicking and I think they're trying to discover a new identity at the wrong time against good teams. EDG should be able to take care of business here. Hope isn't a newbie and will be familiar with the stage and while he might not be as good as iBoy, the ADC on this squad has rarely mattered. I'm also looking at that top lane matchup and Jinoo's mouth has to be watering at the chance to obliterate Poss.

Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ -141 (2 units)

A bit of a tale of two messes here. On one side we have Vici who, while remaining way more energetic than we're used to, is still a pretty bad team. On the other we have the reality sinking back into JDG. Their miracle run to finals was exactly that. Again this team isn't good but they should be better than the true bottom dwelling teams like Vici. I think JDG probably win this series but I don't feel strongly either way. The correct play here is probably Vici +1.5 at +116 but I'm just going to abstain. This match stinks.

No wager

I was originally a bit skeptical of this one but the more I think about it, TheShy is going to have a really difficult time solo carrying this series because Knight should completely smash Forge. It's nothing against him or anything but Knight is just ridiculous and without Rookie there I'm feeling like TOP ML is an excellent value and the -1.5 is outstanding. I think a TOP 2-0 is the most likely outcome albeit not by much. IG could take a game here but I think 369 and Xx are so good at neutralizing top lane advantages that they should be able to neuter IG.

Moneyline: TOP -156 (Max: 2 units)

Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ +169 (Max: 0.75 unit)

I know Victory 5 are coming off of wins against a struggling Invictus and the bad Vici gaming but I think Victory 5 are more or less in the same tier as those teams. OMG look like they're primed to make a run for a playoff spot. Adding a secondary carry in Curse has done wonders for this team because their opposition can't just focus on shutting down Icon anymore. I actually think OMG are going to end up a playoff team. I like them more than say JDG. This is looks like a huge value to me. I actually think OMG should be favored. We're going to take the OMG moneyline and the OMG 2-0 (in the form of V5 to win a map? NO @ +252)

Moneyline: OMG +102 (2 units)

Prop: Victory 5 to win a map? NO @ +252 (0.5 units)

We had some stinkers on the schedule for the LPL this weekend but this should be awesome. I'm leaning RNG because I think Karsa can break this game open himself but I also think it's reasonable to stay out of the way of the FunPlus Revenge Tour. I'm just going to pop some more popcorn and watch this one as well.

Prop: Over 2.5 maps played @ +100 (1 unit)

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LEC Summer 2019 - Week 3 Days 1 and 2

In Europe this week I'm taking a few long shots in ExceL vs Fnatic and Rogue vs G2. This is strictly trying to pick a value dog. G2 won't go undefeated in all likelihood. I think G2 vs Fnatic should be interesting and you could justify either side but I'd lean G2. Schalke vs Origen is also an inflection point. My bigger selection for the weekend is going to be Schalke +122 against Misfits. I'll be firing for a few units here. Misfits are being tremendously overrated right now just because they're 2-2 and Schalke should be a playoff team. This is free. Vitality is also a team to watch this weekend. Can they salvage this season?

Moneyline: Excel +401 vs Fnatic (0.25 units)

Moneyline: Rogue +397 vs G2 (0.25 units)

Moneyline: Schalke 04 +122 vs Misfits (1.5 units)



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North American LCS Summer 2019 Week 4 Days 1 and 2

A couple interesting games on the NA slate but mostly duds. NA feels kind of solved. I'll admit I'm a bit gunshy after being obliterated in NA last week but I still like a few picks here. Golden Guardians vs TSM I think GG are a bit undervalued. These two teams are equal to me. Optic should destroy Echo Fox and -200 is honestly something I'll pay even in best of ones. I think OpTic are real. Speaking of Optic being real I love Optic against TSM on Saturday. CLG vs FlyQuest is a huge inflection point for both of these teams, sadly I'm leaning CLG but we'll see how the line moves.

Moneyline: Golden Guardians +150 vs TSM (1 unit)

Moneyline: Optic +156 vs TSM (1 unit)

Moneyline: Optic -200 vs Echo Fox (MAX: 1.5 units)

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I have a ton of parlays mixing all the regions but unfortunately I've run out of time before having to hit the road. I'm sure you noticed as the posts got briefer and briefer :-)

ENJOY YOUR WEEKEND AND GOOD LUCK!