Moneyline: Echo Fox +105 to defeat Cloud 9 (PICK OF THE MONTH)
Wager: 6 units
Payout: 12.3 units
First pick of the month was a slam dunk despite Cloud 9 showing an excellent game plan to deal with Huni, the predicted X-Factor. If there are matchups or special players that can absolutely force a matchup to be lopsided that deserves to be respected. This bet had momentum (Fox red hot, C9 still figuring it out), a severe mismatch (Licorice to Huni although this ended up not being a huge a deal due to game plan), and a massive misevaluation of the line (which moved from -112 to +105 for Echo Fox). On top of these three main reasons it also had yet another overperformer in Fenix for Echo Fox who has been better than I imagined he'd be this season (and I was relatively high on him). This is the kind of spot to lay a big wager founded in good logic and philosophy.
First pick of the month was a slam dunk despite Cloud 9 showing an excellent game plan to deal with Huni, the predicted X-Factor. If there are matchups or special players that can absolutely force a matchup to be lopsided that deserves to be respected. This bet had momentum (Fox red hot, C9 still figuring it out), a severe mismatch (Licorice to Huni although this ended up not being a huge a deal due to game plan), and a massive misevaluation of the line (which moved from -112 to +105 for Echo Fox). On top of these three main reasons it also had yet another overperformer in Fenix for Echo Fox who has been better than I imagined he'd be this season (and I was relatively high on him). This is the kind of spot to lay a big wager founded in good logic and philosophy.
Moneyline: Cloud 9 -103 to defeat 100 Thieves
Wager: 5 units
Payout: 9.85 units
If I can come up with really a really solid foundation for why a team is a strategic mismatch and it combines with my inclination on a team then I should stick with my gut. Where I get into trouble is just blindly trusting heavy favorites. This was a great example of breaking down exactly how and why C9 would get this done and why 100 Thieves was overperforming cooked into one bet.
If I can come up with really a really solid foundation for why a team is a strategic mismatch and it combines with my inclination on a team then I should stick with my gut. Where I get into trouble is just blindly trusting heavy favorites. This was a great example of breaking down exactly how and why C9 would get this done and why 100 Thieves was overperforming cooked into one bet.
Moneyline: Clutch Gaming +114 to defeat CLG
Wager: 4 units
Payout: 8.56 units
This was good evaluation of previous matches and film review. If you actually watched the games and didn't just follow the record and results you would have known that CLG looks like a legitimately bad team while CG took care of business against a bad team in GG and happened to be unlucky enough to run into the early buzzsaw in Echo Fox which dropped the value of their stock. Febiven is the real deal and even in their Sunday night loss he was excellent on Ryze giving him back to back high level performances. It looks like the European superstar is in top notch form and will be a force going forward. This should be a top 4 or 5 team as long as Lira doesn't have anymore trainwreck performances like he did Sunday.
This was good evaluation of previous matches and film review. If you actually watched the games and didn't just follow the record and results you would have known that CLG looks like a legitimately bad team while CG took care of business against a bad team in GG and happened to be unlucky enough to run into the early buzzsaw in Echo Fox which dropped the value of their stock. Febiven is the real deal and even in their Sunday night loss he was excellent on Ryze giving him back to back high level performances. It looks like the European superstar is in top notch form and will be a force going forward. This should be a top 4 or 5 team as long as Lira doesn't have anymore trainwreck performances like he did Sunday.
Moneyline: ROCCAT -116 to defeat Unicorns of Love
Wager: 2 units
Payout: 3.72 units
Maybe I should just bet against bad teams rather than bet on good teams. It sure as hell seems more reliable but the good thing to take away from this one is my evaluation of teams seems to be pretty spot on for the bad squads I just need to know when good teams might not have their edge that week.
Losers:
Moneyline: KSV eSports -769, also -1.5 @ -175 to defeat Kongdoo Monster (2-0 with the 2nd bet)
Wager: 4 + 4 = 8 units
Payout: LOSS
This is definitely approaching the extremes of heavy moneyline favorite bets but I thought this was for sure a lock and that just goes to show you anything can happen. I thought Kongdoo is the second worst team in Korea and I still believe that but apparently the region is competitive enough to steal not just games but to SWEEP the top tier teams IN THE WORLD. This was just a bad beat but a reminder that you can lose these. Lucky it wasn't two awful beats by KSV in one week as they easily could have been 2-0'd by the Afreeca Freecs if their nexus got auto'd one more time.
Moneyline: Fnatic -222 to defeat Vitality
Wager: 4 units
Payout: LOSS
This Fnatic team has some soul searching to do. They're just like TSM has been in NA so far. WAY TOO PASSIVE. They get themselves into situations they shouldn't be in. I don't know if it's just learning, a bad patch, or what but I'm willing to stick with them for another week. If they look bad again I'm going to be coming off them. As it turns out Vitality are better than I thought although I still think they'll fall off. This was a case where trusting my gut got be burned but we'll see what another week shows before making any real drops in my personal ratings.
Moneyline: Jin Air -182 to defeat BBQ Olivers and -1.5 @ +163
Wager: 3 units + 1 unit
Payout: LOSS
Unless I have a really strong inclination or reason to put more than 2 units on these closer matches I should limit bets to that and take small winnings instead of trying to look like a smartass. This one actually stung mostly because I literally caught myself trying to look smart and did it anyway. These teams are evenly matched despite playing two different styles and I thought Jin Air being more favored in the meta was enough to bet 3 units? That's weak.
Moneyline: OVER/UNDER Wagers on the LPL
I'm down 2.18 units just this week on the "trend" I thought I'd discovered (granted I missed multiple games by seconds). I'm going to come off these for the time being until I have more data.
Lesson Learned:
1) You can always lose... but once again don't shy away from big moneyline favorites:
This seems like the most classic tilt situation but my preseason and in season evaluation has been spot on for about 90% of the field I'm observing (NA, EU, and LCK) so why should I give up on that. It's the advantage I have over the books and to shy away from a few bad losses that I'm going to chalk up to bad luck would be faulty. KSV almost wrecked me twice this week but I'll probably be betting them next week. The same doesn't necessarily go for teams that have noticeably dropped off (maybe Fnatic).
2) Trust your film evaluation, your best bets have been based on it:
I rewatch a lot of games although I'll admit not all of them. I also catch a lot on the first view so when I make a strategic evaluation whether it be a team having a drastic draft advantage, a player mismatch, or the ability to exploit a certain matchup or style then I should trust myself on it. My best wagers from this week were based in sound matchup and strategic play. Don't go heavy without it.
3) Bad teams, Good teams, and Great teams:
Bad teams are reliably bad, good teams are usually good but sometimes bad, great teams exceed good level and rarely don't. Differentiate teams that are bad, good, and great. The West as a whole doesn't have a truly great team right now. The closest are Liquid and Echo Fox but I think they're just some consistency away from being great. The East has Kingzone, KSV, and KT (although I'd like a little more consistency). Great teams create their own opportunities proactively they don't respond to what is given to them, they take it. The lesson here is don't trust good teams as much as you trust great teams and don't be afraid to trust them just because of a fluke loss (lookin' at you KSV).
I rewatch a lot of games although I'll admit not all of them. I also catch a lot on the first view so when I make a strategic evaluation whether it be a team having a drastic draft advantage, a player mismatch, or the ability to exploit a certain matchup or style then I should trust myself on it. My best wagers from this week were based in sound matchup and strategic play. Don't go heavy without it.
3) Bad teams, Good teams, and Great teams:
Bad teams are reliably bad, good teams are usually good but sometimes bad, great teams exceed good level and rarely don't. Differentiate teams that are bad, good, and great. The West as a whole doesn't have a truly great team right now. The closest are Liquid and Echo Fox but I think they're just some consistency away from being great. The East has Kingzone, KSV, and KT (although I'd like a little more consistency). Great teams create their own opportunities proactively they don't respond to what is given to them, they take it. The lesson here is don't trust good teams as much as you trust great teams and don't be afraid to trust them just because of a fluke loss (lookin' at you KSV).
4) No Parlays of more than 3 teams and 0.2 units this week
I didn't los a lot on these but I'm going to restrict myself even more on them.
I didn't los a lot on these but I'm going to restrict myself even more on them.
Week Two Roundup:
NA LCS: +11.91 units
EU LCS: --5.05 units
LCK: -3.835 units
LPL: -1.998 units
Parlays/Combos: -1.378 units
TOTAL FOR THE WEEK: -0.351 units
Considering the bad beats we hit in Korea and EU this week we came out close to even which means I'm doing something right if I just clean up the anscilary stuff and figure out when to just abstain or go light.
Bets for tomorrows games, if any, will be up later tonight.
Until next time...
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