(UPDATE: Added a 0.5 unit wager on the Over 35:00 on the S04 @ UOL game)
EU LCS January 26th Schedule (Week 2 Day 1):
EU LCS January 26th Schedule (Week 2 Day 1):
Giants (+204) @ G2 eSports (-294)
Splyce (-156) @ ROCCAT (+117)
Misfits (-250) @ H2k (+177)
Vitality (+163) @ Fnatic (-222)
Schalke 04 (-156) @ Unicorns of Love (+118)
This weeks EU LCS slate is a bit lopsided toward Saturday. To me there's only one "good" game on the schedule for Friday afternoon and thats Splyce vs ROCCAT as they are two relatively even teams. Saturday, however, we get Splyce vs Schalke, Fnatic vs G2, and a Misfits vs Vitality matchup that seems more interesting to me than I would have originally thought. With all the said I think a few of these lines are way off and I feel strongly about these games in week 2.
Moneyline: Fnatic -222 (4 units)
I had Fnatic a cut above the rest of the League in my preseason rankings and I'm not going to let a week one showing by the team I had ranked 8th change that even though it Vitality looked way better than my estimation. If you think teams don't sleep on other teams or have games they don't care about your delusional and I'd be willing to be Fnatic thought they could roll this H2k team in their sleep but it's early in the season and they're not there yet. That being said I think the week one wake-up call is a real thing and you'll see Fnatic take care of business in extraordinary fashion this weekend.-222 for Fnatic against Vitality compared to Misfits being -250 against H2k is just way off to me so I'm gonna go heavy on this one and trust that Fnatic get their act together and bring this Vitality team back down to earth at the same time.
Result: LOSS
Moneyline: G2 -294 (3 units)
TRUST THE PROCESS! I think G2 is the second or third best team in Europe and while I'm a fan of this Giants roster for their upside I don't think they are likely to beat G2.I'm also reaffriming my stance on big moneyline favorites. I'm not going to back down ... well maybe eventually if it goes bad enough due to best of one format but for now we'll stick with it.
Result: LOSS
Moneyline: Schalke 04 -156 (4 units)
The only thing keeping this bet from being my January Pick of the Month and likely a 6 unit wager or a no-fly zone is the same reason and that's rookie ADC super-prospect Upset. He did not play last week due to illness but it looks like he'll be starting this week and with Schalke able to hang even with a double switch sub situation last week I can't see anything but smooth sailing even with rookie jitters. This is a bet that this team is significantly stronger then this tremendously overrated UoL squad with or without Upset I'd make this and with him in it just makes me feel better about it.
Result: WIN (+6.56 units)
LCK January 26th Schedule (Week 2 Day 4):
Kingzone DragonX (-200, -1.5 @ +150, M1 -192, M2 -179, M3 -161)
@ (Over/Under 36:00, Kill Total 17.5)
SK Telecom T1 (+153, +1.5 @ -208, M1 +145, M2 +135, M3 +122)
Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -200 (3 units)
It's really early in the season to say this is "must win" territory for SK Telecom but with KSV, KT, Kingzone, and an Afreeca team that looks very good in the early going they could be looking at a 5th seed for the playoff gauntlet at this rate or maybe even 6th place as Jin Air hasn't looked terrible either. Now I could very well eat my hat on this one because this is exactly the scenario in the past where SKT reminds everybody why they're the best franchise in the history of the game with the best player to ever grace the Rift. Everyone doubting and saying "I don't know this team is weaker" and similar sentiments is normally about the time they snap back to demolishing everyone but I do think this team has more kinks to work out than that. This lineup reminds me a lot of the Season 5 iteration of SK Telecom in that they struggled for awhile to integrate the new members into Kkoma's system and figure out who belonged in which games and while Faker was doing everything in his power he made a lot of mistakes trying to overcarry in games. Eventually that team figured things out and I think this team will as well but that might not be in the "oh we figured it out here's first place" SKT we've come to know and love. The last two losses were due to game ending mistakes by Faker (no I don't think he's "slipping") but they've also been calculated risks that didn't work out which make it look worse than it actually is. The real problem this team has is their inability to make anything happen early in the game without huge leads in their lanes. In many ways Jin Air and SKT are playing the same style right now which is why we saw such a marathon series between the two. Let's not forget that Kingzone was the best team in the world for most of last year and haven't changed anybody. Their only loss was to World Champs KSV (Samsung). This is a GREAT team. I'll be hedging this because this just feels like a Faker pop off situation. Maybe I'll learn my lesson and just bet 2 units the other way next time but this should be a revealing series that I expect to go 3 games regardless.
Result: WIN (+4.5 units)
Moneyline: SK Telecom +1.5 @ -208 (2 units)
This hedge / prediction of a 3 game series will recoup some of my wager if this ends up with a 2 - 1 Kingzone win or an SK win. I'm tempted to take the over but I could see Kingzone just running over SK in one or all of these games.
Result: LOSS, This feels real bad but I think it's worth doing this in series that you think will go 3 games. Maybe I'll learn that it isn't the case but for now I'm going to keep at it.
LPL January 26th Schedule (Week 2 Day 4):
BiliBili Gaming +183
@ (Over/Under 34:00)
EDward Gaming -233
Vici Gaming +313
@ (Over/Under 34:00)
Team WE -500
@ (Over/Under 34:00)
Team WE -500
Moneyline: Vici Gaming @ Team WE UNDER 34:00 Maps 1 and 2 (two bets totaling 0.5 units)
Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming @ EDward Gaming OVER 34:00 Maps 1 and 2 (two bets totaling 0.5 units)
We're adapting this formula as we go. As we discussed last time I'm going to be taking the under on heavy favorites in the LPL instead of just blindly every game like I've been doing. So why haven't I taken the under in the BBG @ EDG? Because I think while BBG looks really good, they've beaten up on some mediocre teams and EDG is actually a good team but have started slow. Speaking of slow they tend to play slower, Korean style League of Legends which makes me think the low 34 minute total is a bit low. I'm tempted to take BBG for a unit since the value is good and they're running hot right now but I really haven't watched every LPL game so check back for an update later.
Result: WIN WIN WIN WIN (+1.852 unit)
Parlay (6): KZ -200, S04 -156, G2 -294, FNC -222, MSF -250, VG @ WE UNDER 34:00 (0.2 units)
More or less a for fun parlay on most of the favorites I liked a lot today.
Result: LOSS
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