Betting: January 26th (LCK / LPL / EU LCS / NA LCS)

LCK January 27th Schedule (Week 2 Day 5):

KSV eSports (-765, -1.5 @ -175)

@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 17.5)

Kongdoo Monster (+477, +1.5 @ +127)

Afreeca Freecs (-250, -1.5 @-127)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.6)
ROX Tigers (+188, +1.5 @ -175)


Moneyline: KSV eSports -769 (4 units)

Moneyline: KSV eSports -1.5 @ -175 (2 units)

(UPDATE: I'm upping the -1.5 @ -175 to 4 units as well. I just can't see KSV dropping a game to this Kongdoo squad even in this current metagame)

This should be an absolute stomping so I'm going to place a 4 units on the moneyline and 2 more on the 2-0. KSV is one of the top two and Kongdoo is one of the bottom two and in best of 3's I'm more resilient to the best of one heavy favorite upset.

Result: LOSS

Result: LOSS, Kongdoo with the 2 - 0 makes you realize nothing makes sense and sports betting is really really difficult. There are no words...

NA LCS January 27th Schedule (Week 2 Day 1):

Clutch Gaming +114 @ CLG -152

Team Solo Mid -213 @ OpTic Gaming +157

Cloud 9 -118 @ Echo Fox -112

100 Thieves +122 @ Team Liquid -167

Golden Guardians +129 @ FlyQuest -172

This NA LCS Week 2 slate is JUICY! 

Moneyline: TSM -213 (4 units)

Once against sticking to my guns on heavy favorites. Good teams figure out their problems and I think in this specific situation the player quality differential is just too big. I got absolutely torched last weekend and in EU LCS yesterday by losing big favorites but even in this best of one format that I can't stand these good squads need to start winning eventually. TSM's problems have been draft issues more than anything else to me. When you have a bad setup you're forced to make suboptimal decisions and when a team is still learning each other there isn't that automatic chemistry to play your way out of a bad situation. I think TSM makes the proper adjustments and gets the train rolling against an overrated 100 Thieves team. 

Result: WIN (+5.88 units)

Moneyline: Team Liquid -167 (4 units)

I have no idea why Liquid vs 100 Thieves is a closer spread than TSM vs OpTic simply based on what we've seen. I had TL and TSM two and one in My Preseason Predictions and OpTic and 100 Thieves next to each other at seven and eight. TSM had a slow start and Liquid looks excellent. It's probably because 100 Thieves are overrated as I mentioned in that post as well. They beat two bad teams on the way to their 2-0. They haven't been tested yet. This seems like easy money to me and I really want to make this a heavier wager but I'll keep it to 4 units and maybe update tomorrow before the games.

Result: LOSS

Moneyline: Clutch Gaming +114 (4 units)

Clutch took care of business against a bad Golden Guardians team but unfortunately ran into the buzzsaw that is Echo Fox right now. CLG had losses to C9 and 100 Thieves. This is a defining moment for CLG. They need to win this game. I might be underplaying the psychological part of this matchup. Clutch could be looking forward to their match against Liquid on Sunday or they could have focused a lot more attention on this one to secure the win. CLG is either entirely focused on this match and assuming they'll beat GG or, because of their rough start, are treating both equally. Ultimately I think it's more about team build and preparation. As I've said I think this CLG team is tremendously overrated going into this season and while I think they're more than likely a playoff team I don't think they're better than the other five at the top to beat them consistently. I'm also going to start this one at 4 units but check back tomorrow for an update.

Result: WIN (+8.56 units)

Moneyline:  Echo Fox +105 (6 unit January Pick of the Month)

(UPDATE: This line has moved from C9 -118 @ EF -112 to C9 -135 @ EF +105)

I was already going to make this a 4 unit wager but I'm upping it to 6 and making it my January Pick of the Month. Echo Fox are not only red hot right now but present a matchup nightmare in Huni vs rookie top laner Licorice. That was enough of a disparity for me to make this a 3 unit wager on it's own. I'm also factoring in that Fenix has looked excellent so far and could perhaps nullify Jensen or at least not be a liability. If Fenix had not impressed me so much I'd probably just leave it at 3 based on the Huni and eye test factors but I like how Fenix has looked. To me these two teams are evenly matched squads but this is perhaps the worst matchup for Cloud 9 strategically in the entire league and the timing is definitely not in their favor either. Enter a line swing from -112 to +105 for Echo Fox in a market that rarely has line movement. People are pounding Cloud 9 OR the oddsmakers seem to like Cloud 9 and I just think they're dead wrong. I'll collect my value all the way to the bank on this one.

Result: WIN (+6.3 units), This didn't go quite as cleanly as I hoped as C9 laid out a good plan to deal with the top centric strategy but ultimately great players made great plays to close this one out.

EU LCS January 27th Schedule (Week 2 Day 2):

H2K +127 @ Giants -161

Unicorns of Love -115 @ ROCCAT -111

Team Vitality +124 @ Misfits -159

Splyce +110 @ Schalke 04 -152

Fnatic -152 @ G2 eSports +114


(UPDATE: Adding a wager on Schalke 04 at -167 vs Splyce

Moneyline:  Schalke 04 -167 (4 units)

Schalke looks like the real deal and maybe the best team in EU and with a chance to take over first place and Splyce looking completely lost I'm going to place a healthy 4 unit wager on Schalke to take this game down.


Result: LOSS


Moneyline:  Giants -161 (2 units)

I know H2k pulled the upset last week but I think that was more a matter of their opponents sleeping through that match. Call it narrative based or whatever but I really don't think this is a good team. Giants on the other hand are proving that they're ahead of schedule. In my preseason predictions I talked about how I thought this Giants team had the most upside of the bottom teams and it turns out they're delivering on that. Ruin is absolutely demolishing everyone and it's not close. He's taking over games from the top lane in much the same manner the Huni was in week one in the NA LCS and they're playing around it well. The guy is a monster and I don't think SmittyJ and Santorin are up for the task.

Result: WIN (+3.24 units)



Moneyline:  ROCCAT -116 (2 units)

During the post game show they interviewd Kold (Trashy) from UoL and he admitted to the team "not gelling yet" and that he was focused more on playing fun picks with his new approach to non-burning out and that his new philosophy aligned well with what UoL wanted... does anybody else read this as "I'm trying to win but not doing everything in my power to win" because I do. Look I get that you gotta keep your mind right and that can definitely pay dividends but in the moment I'm not touching this UoL team and I think I might even take H2k over them. Their best player just tried to fire off Kayn in a zero engage composition yesterday and justified it afterwards. I hope the best for Trashy and I thank him for his honesty hopefully leading us to a bunch of money.

Result: WIN (+3.72 units)

LPL January 27th Schedule (Week 2 Day 5):

FunPlus Phoenix +245 

@ (Over/Under 34:00, Kill Total 20.5)

Team WE -333

Rogue Warriors -263

@ (Over/Under 34:00, Kill Total 19.5)

LGD Gaming +197

JD Gaming +194

@ (Over/Under 34:00, Kill Total 19.5)

Royal Never GiveUp -256

Moneyline: FPP @ WE UNDER 34:00 Map 1 and 2 (two bets totaling 0.5 unit)

Moneyline: RW @ LGD UNDER 34:00 Map 1 and 2 (two bets totaling 0.5 unit)

Moneyline: RNG @ JDG UNDER 34:00 Map 1 and 2 (two bets totaling 0.5 unit)

Going to keep our estimation of a trend going. If this stays this way I may end up moving these up to total one unit or more plays weekly.

Result: LOSS WIN LOSS WIN LOSS LOSS (total: -0.57)

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Preaseaon Predictions Articles can be found here:

NA LCS Spring 2018 Predictions and Preseason Bets

EU LCS Spring 2018 Predictions and Preseason Bets

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