Betting: January 21st

UPDATE: Placed a couple hefty moneyline wagers on C9 16:30 into the game C9 -1000 4.984 units. and C9 -1429 10 units. Game was effectively over but somehow odds weren't quite into the 2000s figured I'd recoup some value and CHASE after a rough day. WIN  WIN  (+5.482 unit and +10.7 unit)


NA LCS January 21st Schedule (Week 1 Day 2):

OpTic (+234) @ Liquid (-345)

FlyQuest (+215) @ TSM (-313)

CLG (-161) @ 100 Thieves (+119)

Golden Guardians (+190) @ Cloud 9 (-270)

Echo Fox (-143) @ Clutch Gaming (+112)

I was going to go pretty light overall today because I don't want to react too much to one day worth of games and because I think this slate is really lopsided but I'm going to take a few heavy moneyline favorites. I'm trying to figure out how draft priorities are going to impact game times to see if I can eke some value out of it. For teams that value Gangplank and Azir highly you can imagine longer game times and I'm trying to find out who is doing that the most frequently or who has given us some subtle hints via their drafts.

This is significantly higher risk for smaller reward. Beware.

Moneyline: TSM -313 (3 unit)

I'm not going to be scared off by the weird draft and rough start TSM got off to yesterday against a Team Liquid squad that clearly had their number from the get go. Liquid was a team I expected to start red hot and I expected TSM to start slow but I absolutely love TSM to rebound and crush a FlyQuest team that's playing with a sub AND got absolutely rolled earlier today. Let this be a message that I'm not overreacting to best of ones despite the fact that they might burn me from time to time. If I'm not willing to bet heavy favorites and I'm just going to lose big on randomness in best of ones from time to time then I'm just going to lose over time. 

Result: LOSS

Moneyline: Team Liquid -345 (3 unit)

I might be a sucker here and this could be a classic let down spot like you see in traditional sports all the time but OpTic and 100 Thieves played this long slugfest in which neither team could close the game. OpTic actually had control of the mid and late game for a large portion of this game but couldn't properly close with poor wave control and macro play. Despite being behind early and coming back I'm willing to bet that Liquid just runs over this game. They just outclass OpTic in every roll except ADC where they're more or less even. I might end up taking the under on this with more thought but for now we'll keep it as this.

Result: WIN (+3.87 units)

Moneyline: Echo Fox -143 (4 unit)

These two teams are relatively even to me. I had them 4th and 5th in my NA LCS 2018 Preseason Predictions but just because I had them back to back doesn't mean they're necessarily that close against each other. Huni brought out the top lane Lucian yesterday in response to a blind Gangplank. With so many teams prioritizing blind pick top laners like Ornn, Gangplank, and Gnar and Huni's willingness to counter pick not just yesterday but over the course of his career, I believe he can have a profound influence on games both in the actual game and in the draft. He's going to pull all kinds of pressure to open things up for the rest of his team. Huni is an elite player, arguably the best player in North America or even the West as a whole. Dardoch and Fenix did a great job playing around his advantage and if this team is ahead of the curve in playing carry tops I'm willing to put some green down until teams show me the ability to adapt. I may end up putting half a unit on the Under 34:00 but I'm not entirely sure Huni won't play Gangplank or his signature Chogath or something himself so we'll see. My gut tells me he'll show us yet another carry top just to really throw other teams off so they have to ban Lucian AND something else which gives them a massive edge in the second round of the draft if he gets counterpick. They're on blue side tomorrow but they were on blue side today too so we'll see how teams handle this but I do think just the threat of it alone is going to get his team a huge edge not to mention it's Echo Fox's best player against the theoretical weakest on Clutch Gaming in Solo. I like the value of this one for this matchup specifically and for the mental and strategic edge that Echo Fox has across the board.

Result: WIN (+2.8 unit)

Parlay (5): Liquid -345, TSM -313, CLG -161, Cloud 9 -270, Echo Fox -143 (0.2 unit)  LOSS

Parlay (4): Liquid -345, TSM -313, CLG -161, Cloud 9 -270 (0.5 unit)  LOSS

Parlay (3): Liquid -345, TSM -313, Cloud 9 -270 (0.5 unit)  LOSS

I think the rest of these games are shaping up to be fairly lopsided as it is all top teams facing bottom teams. While I think upsets are fairly likely in this metagame I'll take a flier on a couple cheap parlays on the favorites.