Betting: July 7th (Rift Rivals LCK vs LPL vs LMS)

I figured I'd discuss yesterdays tremendous 23+ unit loss a bit and break down what was just unlucky vs what was stupid. First of all this was amplified by the fact that I was WAY WAY overconfident and was willingly betting more than double what I've limited myself to bet on best of one games. Best of ones are volatile and I was crushed by them last season so moving into this season I was working under a three unit wager limit and it's been serving well to maximize where I'm successful (LCK). Admittedly I splurged a little on this and as always, reality will check out. Let's take a look at what was actually unlucky and what was bad logic.

Actually unlucky:

• The Kingzone Live and Pregame Bet: Kingzone simply had to not feed an extra few kills at the first baron for no reason and they had this game in the bag. Their comp could not lose to the Flash Wolves composition and Pray was on schedule to carry the game. They just severely punted this one. The idea was right although I'll admit Kingzone have looked a tad shaky.
• SK Telecom to beat Invictus: SKT were in full control of this game and Rookie just made a complete miracle play to suddenly win. Just stunning. Dude is one of the single best players in the world and has been for years. Absolutely robbed us but damn impressive.
• Team Liquid to def G2: I'm going to put this here because I think this was a severely botched draft and early game by TL.They completely obliterated Fnatic who I feel is on a similar tier to G2 when they aren't using Rekkles. G2 probably win something like 35-40% vs TL and this was one of those.

Poor Logic:

• Splyce to def 100 Thieves: I thought for sure this was a lock but this Splyce team just sucks. There's a huge drop off from EU's top two teams to the rest of the field and I think I just lost sight of that amidst the 100 Thieves roster shakeup. Splyce can't close games.

Everything else I'm going to attribute to just regular old variance. If we hit on these bets we're even or better for the day. We just missed on a few huge ones that cost us. The Kingzone live bet murdered me here. Just unlucky on that but we did learn that Splyce sucks and SK Telecom actually looked great vs Invictus if it wasn't for Rookie making a miracle play.

BACK ON THAT HORSE LET'S GO!

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Rift Rivals LCK vs LMS vs LPL 7/7:

LOL Champions Korea (-1250, -2.5 @ -120)
@ Over/Under ???, Total Kills ???
League Masters Series (Taiwan) (+666, +2.5 @ -108)


Handicapped: LCK -2.5 maps @ -120  (7 units MAX)

PROP: Exact LCK 3-0 @ -161 (5 units) (this was the initial offering, -120 is significantly better odds so we added on)

PROP: Exact LCK 3-1 @ +223 (1 unit)

Before diving in a little we need to discuss the format here. Rift Rivals for LCK/LPL/LMS will be a Blind Relay format which is actually kind of cool. Each team from the region needs to play at least once meaning IF this goes to five games one team will play a second match. Teams will be selected at the same time so you can't "counterpick" but will be announced the day of meaning teams will have very little, but some prep period. So what does this mean for us. Well the LMS is absolutely horrid outside of Flash Wolves so I'd expect that the LMS is going to open with the Flash Wolves and that the LCK will open with KT or Kingzone but let's break this down.

I actually think any of the four Korean teams will be favored to defeat Flash Wolves at different weights. SKT I would make a slight favorite and the others heavy heavy favorites. The rest of the LMS teams? Not even close, we're talking like -2000 type chances here. So let's assume the worst case scenario here. Korea OPENS with SK Telecom and the LMS OPENS with Flash Wolves. "But Gelati, the Flash Wolves are the Korean slayers!" You're right, they're 9-9 all time in international competitions against Korea. Those past Flash Wolves teams were much better than this one and, in my opinion, they've already used up all their luck with Kingzone punting an easily winnable game against them. For whatever reason Flash Wolves tilt Korea but I think Flash Wolves are only going to get two games maximum here and I would put this line at SK Telecom -120 Flash Wolves +100 meaning I think SKT would be favored anyway. SKT have actually looked decent at this tournament. As for the other matchups I'm honestly not even going to discuss them. These are like minor league teams against the World's best teams. Even in a best of one it's not going to happen. So what you're really betting on here is whether or not Flash Wolves win a game or not and the above scenario is the "worst" case scenario for us. There's a much better chance Korea LEADS with KT or Kingzone and Flash Wolves just can't get the job done which I think is the most likely.

I'm going pretty heavy on this not as a reaction to a poor performance yesterday but because I don't think Flash Wolves will take a game especially since they already pulled the upset in groups and that will be a wake up call for these Korean squads who now have experience and information which they use better than any other region in the world.