Griffin (-172, -1.5 @ +149)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 19.5
Gen.G eSports (+135, +1.5 @ -196)
SK Telecom (-103, +1.5 @ -333)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 19.5
Hanwha Life eSports (-123, -1.5 @ +235)
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Moneyline: Gen.G eSports +135 (6 units)
PROP: Exact Gen.G 2-0 @ +384 (1 unit)
PROP: Exact Gen.G 2-1 @ +359 (1.5 units)
(Update: This line is now -217 and +167 making me regret my earlier wager but I'd roflstomp this line if I saw it)
Suspiciously my book has capped this game here or I'd make this my pick of the week.
I need to take a moment to discuss a couple of things regarding both of these teams. Firstly, regarding Griffin, I still think this team is due for some regression. They've looked really good and they've had carry performances from multiple players but I also think, just like with all good, new teams, they eventually get figured out to some degree. I don't think they're very one dimensional or anything like that but I do think they have tendencies and teams are starting to expose Lehends' pool and not play as blindly aggressive into the intelligent young squad. Secondly, Gen.G murdered me last season with their seemingly carefree approach to certain matchups but they've won all but two series this season, an 0-2 loss to KT Rolster and an 0-2 loss to Afreeca. Besides that they've dropped three games, one to Hanwha, one to Kingzone, and one, sadly, to the BBQ Olivers off of a really unlucky outplay on an early skirmish. In other words this team is taking things seriously and they aren't taking games off.
I absolutely love Gen.G here and that's a sentence I never thought I'd say after last split but they're a good team. Griffin are flying high right now and this feels to me like another one of those scenarios where the veterans say "welcome to the big leagues." I've been wrong on two of those calls already this season but I think the combination of Gen.G's quietly excellent performance this season and Griffin's long due regression to the mean (a little) making me love this spot for Gen.G. The line is going to keep going up and up for Griffin as people are slamming them overconfidently after a poor draft by KT lost them that series on Tuesday. Get it while you can!
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Moneyline: SK Telecom -103 (4 units)
(Update: Line is now SKT -110 / HLE -115)
PROP: Exact Gen.G 2-0 @ +384 (1 unit)
PROP: Exact Gen.G 2-1 @ +359 (1.5 units)
(Update: This line is now -217 and +167 making me regret my earlier wager but I'd roflstomp this line if I saw it)
Suspiciously my book has capped this game here or I'd make this my pick of the week.
I need to take a moment to discuss a couple of things regarding both of these teams. Firstly, regarding Griffin, I still think this team is due for some regression. They've looked really good and they've had carry performances from multiple players but I also think, just like with all good, new teams, they eventually get figured out to some degree. I don't think they're very one dimensional or anything like that but I do think they have tendencies and teams are starting to expose Lehends' pool and not play as blindly aggressive into the intelligent young squad. Secondly, Gen.G murdered me last season with their seemingly carefree approach to certain matchups but they've won all but two series this season, an 0-2 loss to KT Rolster and an 0-2 loss to Afreeca. Besides that they've dropped three games, one to Hanwha, one to Kingzone, and one, sadly, to the BBQ Olivers off of a really unlucky outplay on an early skirmish. In other words this team is taking things seriously and they aren't taking games off.
I absolutely love Gen.G here and that's a sentence I never thought I'd say after last split but they're a good team. Griffin are flying high right now and this feels to me like another one of those scenarios where the veterans say "welcome to the big leagues." I've been wrong on two of those calls already this season but I think the combination of Gen.G's quietly excellent performance this season and Griffin's long due regression to the mean (a little) making me love this spot for Gen.G. The line is going to keep going up and up for Griffin as people are slamming them overconfidently after a poor draft by KT lost them that series on Tuesday. Get it while you can!
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Moneyline: SK Telecom -103 (4 units)
(Update: Line is now SKT -110 / HLE -115)
Hanwha Life eSports continue to impress. They're disciplined, well coached, and are always well prepared for their games. I think if you asked me about this matchup before Rift Rivals I would have told you that it's about even. After Rift Rivals, the books think it is even but I think SK Telecom looked excellent at Rift Rivals. This roster finally seems to be coming together and Blank has actually strung together a dozen or so strong performances now so maybe he's shaken the monkey off his back so to speak. This isn't disrespecting HLE but I think SK Telecom are due for a run here. They need to start piling up victories if they want to stay competitive in the playoff hunt, coincidentally with HLE. This is a HUGE series for SK Telecom. They absolutely need this and with only one match this week it will have the entirety of their focus while HLE had to play KT Rolster on Tuesday and Gen.G on Sunday. This is a great spot for SK Telecom.
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LOL Pro League (China) 7/13 Schedule:
TopSports Gaming (-103, +1.5 @ -333)
@ Over/Under 32:00, Total Kills 23.5
BiliBili Gaming (-123, -1.5 @ +235)
Royal Never Give Up (-909, -1.5 @ -233)
@ Over/Under 31:00, Total Kills 22.5
TopSports Gaming (-103, +1.5 @ -333)
@ Over/Under 32:00, Total Kills 23.5
BiliBili Gaming (-123, -1.5 @ +235)
Royal Never Give Up (-909, -1.5 @ -233)
@ Over/Under 31:00, Total Kills 22.5
OMG (+526, +1.5 @ +175)
Handicapped: OMG +1.5 maps @ + 175 (1 unit)
This is a bit of a lottery ticket, hunch wager. Uzi will be taking extended time off of the game due to injuries (presumably to his wrist or back). Even without him RNG should stomp OMG but OMG have looked a little better this season and the Rift Rivals hangover COMBINED with Uzi being out could make for a situation where OMG steal a game or two here just from sloppy play. Not likely but as I said this is just a hunch.
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Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming -127 (4 units)
Handicapped: BiliBili Gaming -1.5 @ +229 (1 unit)
BiliBili have really been struggling with this metagame. They're simply not built to play the game this way but I think with time and an additional off week they could perhaps have things figured out. I'm betting that they do. I'm also betting that TopSports have overachieved just a little bit. Apart from the 2-0 they handed to Snake before the break, they haven't really beaten anybody good. As a matter of fact they didn't even sweep FunPlus. BBG being favorites is exactly how I feel here even considering the metagame being out of their favor. I think they have stronger players, especially without Marin playing for TSG. I also think they'll make at least some progress in figuring out their way to play this metagame with the time off and overall accumulated time in this meta over the season. This line would've been -250 or more last season with similar players and I think BBG can only go up from their current rock bottom.
TL:DR - BBG due to improve and underrated, TSG due for regression and slightly overrated (based on records).
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EU LCS (Europe) 7/13 Schedule:
Team Vitality -294 @ H2K +218
FC Schalke 04 -189 @ Giants +145
ROCCAT -132 @ UOL +104
Fnatic -244 @ Splyce +184
G2 eSports -147 @ Misfits +115
Moneyline: ROCCAT -132 (3 units)
Moneyline: ROCCAT -139 (2 units) (ADDED AFTER NEWS UPDATE)
With the announcement that Neon will be starting over an ill Samux I bumped this a few units for ROCCAT. I don't normally like going this heavy on best of ones unless I'm feeling arrogant but this one actually fits. ROCCAT have looked pretty solid and UoL are not only the worst team in the league but are also down arguably their second best player. I'll take my chances in this spot.
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Moneyline: H2K +218 (1 unit)
I am a relentless Team Vitality hater but H2K have not looked as bad in their losses as you'd think looking at their 0-6 record. Vitality have done nothing but smash bad teams and mediocre teams so why am I going with this? To be honest this is strictly a hunch. With a week off and time to prepare I think that favors heavy underdogs like this especially because they absolutely NEED this victory if they want to salvage any chance of a miracle playoff run. I could see Vitality punting this one on a botched overaggressive early game play. I don't think H2K are 0-6 bad even if I don't think they're good and this feels like a good spot for them to get a win.
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Moneyline: Schalke 04 -189 (3 units)
Giants kinda don't look like themselves right now and I think Schalke might be better than their record shows. They've had a relatively tough schedule facing all of the top 4 teams already (with losses each time) but they've taken care of business against weaker squads and I think Giants fall more into that category.
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Moneyline: G2 eSports -147 (1 unit)
Admittedly this is mostly just for fun, to have a stake in this game and something to cheer for. I think G2 will be feeling good coming off of an excellent performance at Rift Rivals and Misfits are due for a loss. Mostly just think G2 is a better team, arguably the best in Europe right now.
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