Betting: July 24th (LCK)

So I decided to take a few days off not only because I had a busy weekend coming up but because I had really started to just chase bets quite hard instead of having good reasoning for them and needed the mental reset. If you follow me on Twitter (@GelatiLOL) you'd know I did put a few picks in but this is the first blog post back.


LOL Champions Korea 7/24 Schedule:

Griffin (-120, -1.5 @ +187)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 18.5
Kingzone DragonX (-105, +1.5 @ -213)



Gen.G 
@
KT Rolster

Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX +108 (8 units)

So this might seem like I'm continuing to sip the Kingzone Kool Aide but hear me out. Griffin are by no means floundering just because they've now lost two of their last three matches and this bet is in no way signifying that THE END IS NIGH or anything like that however I do think the league has figured out a couple of key weaknesses the squad has and it took a little look in the mirror.

So far Griffin have been exceptional at both absorbing and applying pressure but a lot of things have been given to them. I'm not saying it was handed to them on a silver platter all the time, ultimately the plays needed to be made and all you can ask them to do is make them but there have been numerous times this season where enemy teams would disrespectfully force plays against Griffin who would immediately punish that. That was the case until the first time they faced KT Rolster where a team with a superior early game was able to simply outplay them early on and overwhelm them. So there's one way to defeat this team, a way which only a few teams on Earth have the individual players to do. The other way has been a more recent development first pioneered by Gen.G and that was to draft to outscale and turn the tide on Griffin. Put the ball in their court so to speak and make them create plays or team compositions to defeat you. If Gen.G hadn't punted away a series with some boneheaded decisions we'd be talking about something different here.

The point I'm trying to make is this. Griffin have shown that they're not nearly as strong of a team when you put the intiative in their hands which is pretty damn weird when you consider that they dominated the challenger scene doing the exact thing that's not proving to be their new Achilles' heel. KT Rolster successfully accomplished this in two of the three games, Afreeca did the same, and Gen.G ... well, we know what happened there. Kingzone have been very stubborn about trying to outplay other teams early and have been burned for it a few times but I think the other top teams have given them a good plan of attack for Griffin this time around.

The counterpoint to this argument is that Kingzone "haven't looked great recently" with losses to Jin Air and Gen.G but all but one of those four game losses can be attributed to a downright terrible draft that, in my opinion, is easily remedied by the coaching staff. I'm aware that drafting is part of the puzzle but it's also the easiest thing to adjust. Before the season started I had Kingzone finishing as the best team in the LCK and The World and while my expectations aren't quite as sky high as they were I still expect this team to contend for that position. Griffin I had finishing a respectable 5th and while they may seem far ahead of the standings because of their hot start, they're only half a match up on Gen.G and only two matches up on 5th place Afreeca so anything could happen. I predict Griffin will not finish first or even second and there's your #HotTake of the week I suppose.

Anyway with all of that as context I love Kingzone here. This line has since moved to -105 and I'm glad I got in at the 108 on Sunday afternoon when it was briefly posted. You don't have to trust me to the tune of 8 units but I feel extremely confident Kingzone will win this series. All of their losses have been to downright awful drafting and I can't possibly think they won't be prepared for Griffin while I could actually see them not caring enough to overprepare for Jin Air. I'm also putting a lot of faith in this veteran lineup to start tuning up in preparation for playoffs and worlds and that starts with taking down the LCK.


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Moneyline: KT Rolster -143  (4 units)

Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +196 (0.5 unit)


Gen.G are currently half a game from first place and that's even with some really awful games scattered throughout the season. KT have also been shaping up of late. Both of these teams have had wins over other elite teams but to me KT have made a lot fewer errors and have been competitive in every game without any real "shot themselves in the foot" moments, they've simply been outplayed. I find it a bit odd that KT is the favorite by this much here and line value should dictate that if I feel this is close to 50/50 we put some skin on Gen.G but I'm going with KT regardless here. KT Rolster utterly smashed Gen.G in under 61 minutes total time last match and considering the direction of both the metagame and these two teams I'd expect either a slower scaling game that KT can take over with superior carry players  or a blazing fast blowout that KT has even taken a great defensive team in Griffin out with this season. To me there are just more ways this shakes out for KT Rolster and for as good as Gen.G have been, they haven't been the cleanest and have shown a lot of mental lapses.