Griffin (-175, -1.5 @ +174)
@ Over/Under ??, Total Kills ??
Afreeca Freecs (+135, +1.5 @ -233)
SK Telecom (-238, -1.5 @ +121)
@ Over/Under ??, Total Kills ??
MVP (+182, +1.5 @ -154)
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Moneyline: Afreeca Freecs +135 (2 units)
The last time these two teams met Griffin ran over Afreeca in game one before a back and forth slugfest hapened in game two. Gold was even over the first 33 minutes before an Afreeca pick turned into a baron, dragon, and a push onto the bot base tower. Then Griffin did their thing, pulling a teamfight win even after Sword's flank got blocked by a Trundle pillar.
Basically what this boils down to for me is that Afreeca can hang with this team and to me can't be much less than very slightly worse. Other teams have laid a good blueprint for how you can beat Griffin and I think Afreeca will chop them down a notch this time around. Keeping this light though because this could just be Afreeca coming back down to earth.
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Handicapped: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ +130 (4.5 units, MAX)
Both of these teams are in MUST WIN territory if they even want a remote chance at playoffs I'm simply betting that SKT are a much better team here. Their metrics are very similar with one notable difference being that SKT get first blood more (62% vs 45%). The first meeting between these teams DID NOT INCLUDE FAKER OR BANG. Read that sentence again. SK Telecom lost 1-2 without their two best players. The first meeting ALSO DID NOT INCLUDE BLANK who has finally righted the ship and has been performing well. I like this MVP team, they're spunky and they've got heart but to me SK Telecom are much closer to the Gen.G/Afreeca than they are to MVP especially as the season has progressed and they have improved. In Korea there is a huge gap between 6th and 7th but just based on film I think SK Telecom are closer to the 14 win teams than the 8 win teams which is their current win total. Is this a great team? No not by any means but I do think they're enough better than MVP for me to like the handicap here.
The last time these two teams met Griffin ran over Afreeca in game one before a back and forth slugfest hapened in game two. Gold was even over the first 33 minutes before an Afreeca pick turned into a baron, dragon, and a push onto the bot base tower. Then Griffin did their thing, pulling a teamfight win even after Sword's flank got blocked by a Trundle pillar.
Basically what this boils down to for me is that Afreeca can hang with this team and to me can't be much less than very slightly worse. Other teams have laid a good blueprint for how you can beat Griffin and I think Afreeca will chop them down a notch this time around. Keeping this light though because this could just be Afreeca coming back down to earth.
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Handicapped: SK Telecom -1.5 maps @ +130 (4.5 units, MAX)
Both of these teams are in MUST WIN territory if they even want a remote chance at playoffs I'm simply betting that SKT are a much better team here. Their metrics are very similar with one notable difference being that SKT get first blood more (62% vs 45%). The first meeting between these teams DID NOT INCLUDE FAKER OR BANG. Read that sentence again. SK Telecom lost 1-2 without their two best players. The first meeting ALSO DID NOT INCLUDE BLANK who has finally righted the ship and has been performing well. I like this MVP team, they're spunky and they've got heart but to me SK Telecom are much closer to the Gen.G/Afreeca than they are to MVP especially as the season has progressed and they have improved. In Korea there is a huge gap between 6th and 7th but just based on film I think SK Telecom are closer to the 14 win teams than the 8 win teams which is their current win total. Is this a great team? No not by any means but I do think they're enough better than MVP for me to like the handicap here.
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LOL Pro League (China) 7/17 Schedule:
EDward Gaming (-1250, -1.5 @ -244)
@ Over/Under ??, Total Kills ??
Vici Gaming (+625, +1.5 @ +179)
JD Gaming (-270, -1.5 @ +123)
@ Over/Under ??, Total Kills ??
FunPlus Phoenix (+205, +1.5 @ -161)EDward Gaming (-1250, -1.5 @ -244)
@ Over/Under ??, Total Kills ??
Vici Gaming (+625, +1.5 @ +179)
JD Gaming (-270, -1.5 @ +123)
@ Over/Under ??, Total Kills ??
This is a fairly excessive amount of money with a lot of juice but hear me out. I'm not going to call this my pick of the week but it's likely to be my largest wager for the week unless something changes my mind. Let's break this down:
- EDG have only three game losses. Two to Snake in a bizarre series with a few exceptionally snowbally early games, one of which was extremely flukey, and one to FunPlus Phoenix in week one where a boatload of upsets happened because of the wild and whacky new metagame.
- EDG have swept every other series including some against similarly poor teamst to Vici like TopSports, Team WE, and OMG. They also swept the Top 4 Rogue Warriors in convincing fashionin under 66 minutes total time.
- Vici have just a single match win against the horrid LGD and their only game wins occured last match against the equally bad OMG and in week one with single wins against Suning and Bilibili (who are currently 4-11 by the way), two teams who are terribly equipped to handle the meta at the time.
- Vici looked like they were going to compete with OMG in their last match before being utterly destroyed in game three in under 25 minutes. OMG is NOT A GOOD TEAM AND THEY SMASHED VICI
- There's a reasonable case for Vici to be labeled the worst team in the LPL. Their only wins are against fellow bad teams and unlike those other bad teams like LGD, OMG, Team WE, and BiliBili. EDG are considered by many to be Top 4 at the minimum, more likely Top 3, and in my opinion 2nd only to Invictus currently (considering RNG will be without Uzi).
- EDG Stats: 1864 gold per minute, 1715 damage per minute, First Blood 63% of games, First Tower 63% of games.
- Vici Stats: 1710 gold per minute, 1639 damage per minute, First Blood 33% of games, First Tower 17% of games.
Putting all that together. Vici struggled and only managed game wins against a 5-9 OMG, a 4-11 BiliBili, and a 8-7 Suning Gaming which was in week one so we'll give Suning a pass. Their only match win was a 2-1 victory over yet another 4-11 team. You know what EDG does to 4-11 teams? 2-0 in under 71 total minutes against Team WE, 2-0 in 55 minutes against OMG, and against the 6-7 TopSports they 2-0'd in just over 70 minutes. EDG are capable of playing controlled or fast and loose so they're well equipped to deal with anything these bottom dwellers throw at them. This is a borderline lock to me. The good Chinese rarely mess around or play with their food they just obliterate them. EDG could also move to within half a game of Rogue Warriors for first place in the West and considering they completely destroyed them before Rift Rivals you can expect they're hungry to claim their rightful #1 spot.
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Handicapped: JD Gaming -1.5 maps @ -105 (5 units)
Before we talk about JD let's discuss their opponents FunPlus. This is a team that looks better on paper than they've actually been and let me explain why. Their gold per minute of 1736 is approaching Vici levels and their damage per minute is actually lower at 1604 (granted they play a lot of split pushing but still). They have two match wins: a 2-0 against OMG, and a 2-1 against Team WE, a 5-9 and 4-11 team respectively. Now FunPlus did take a game off EDG which is respectable but it happened in the first few days of the season and again, that weird metagame gave a lot of poor teams in every region some stolen victories.
JD have frustratingly thrown a bunch of winnable games to bad teams this season but have looked dominant and in control of every series. Currently they've won their last SIX series, five of which were 2-1 victories including an absolute stunner against RNG in week two. They also have taken games over Invictus (albeit in week one), and have 2-0'd Vici.
This line is saying that JD will once again 2-1. They're fairly heavily favored to win but the handicapped only being at -105 (+123 when you read this, it was -105 when I placed bet) showed that people and the book think this will be a 2-1 JD victory. I think JD can close this one out. FunPlus are about as good, if not a little worse than their 6-11 record suggests. This is a team that's only barely better than the bottom dwellers. While the moneyline is a tad too rich for me in this case I do like the handicap especially if you get a better number than I did.
JD have frustratingly thrown a bunch of winnable games to bad teams this season but have looked dominant and in control of every series. Currently they've won their last SIX series, five of which were 2-1 victories including an absolute stunner against RNG in week two. They also have taken games over Invictus (albeit in week one), and have 2-0'd Vici.
This line is saying that JD will once again 2-1. They're fairly heavily favored to win but the handicapped only being at -105 (+123 when you read this, it was -105 when I placed bet) showed that people and the book think this will be a 2-1 JD victory. I think JD can close this one out. FunPlus are about as good, if not a little worse than their 6-11 record suggests. This is a team that's only barely better than the bottom dwellers. While the moneyline is a tad too rich for me in this case I do like the handicap especially if you get a better number than I did.
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