Rift Rivals North America vs Europe 7/5:
Fnatic -172 @ Echo Fox +126
Team Liquid -256 @ Splyce +182
100 Thieves +185 @ G2 eSports -263
Echo Fox -169 @ Splyce +124
Rift Rivals LCK vs LMS vs LPL 7/5:
Royal Never Give Up -222 @ Flash Wolves +159
Invictus Gaming -769 @ Machi eSports +426
Afreeca Freecs -185 @ EDward Gaming +135
KT Rolster -625 @ MAD Team +369
SK Telecom -400 @ Machi eSports +263
KT Rolster -217 @ Rogue Warriors +156
Before diving into these matchups specifically I'm going to do a power ranking for the teams in these events because I think it gives us perspective and lets you all know how I feel about each of these teams relative to the others. I'll leave a space where I think there is a tier break or a dropoff.
NA vs EU Power Rankings:
1) Team Liquid
2) Fnatic
3) Echo Fox
4) G2 eSports
5) Splyce
6) 100 Thieves
To me, Team Liquid are a cut above the rest of the field. I'd have Fnatic right there with them but even with Bwipo performing well, he's not Rekkless and without Rekkless playing I can't see Fnatic holding up to TL. Echo Fox and G2 I expect to show well considering they have the two best individual players in the tournament in Huni and Perkz and that they're both teams that have high ceilings. Splyce have struggled this season but they haven't looked bad they just haven't been earning wins. Something something, best of ones are dumb.... And last but not least you all know how I feel bout 100 Thieves and with their trade of Meteos to FlyQuest for AnDa as well as announcing that Brandini and Levi will start at Rift Rivals I just can't see this team doing much at this tournament and expect them to go without a win.
As a side note, because I haven't really written about it outside of Twitter, I actually think this trade could work out in favor of 100 Thieves. People tend to cling to veterans that were once good too much and while Meteos has certainly surpassed my low expectations of him in the past two splits that doesn't mean a team can't do better. Levi came to NA from a successful career in Vietnam highlighted by an incredible performance with the Gigabyte Marines last year at multiple international events. He's got a lot of promise and could be a real player not just domestically but on the grander world stage as well. AnDa also isn't a joke and was a solid player last year so if Levi doesn't work out that's a solid fall back. On the other hand, FlyQuest get an almost definitely overvalued asset in Meteos that they could trade or use as leverage to get their hands on something they need more (like maybe a mid laner...).
LCK vs LPL vs LMS Power Rankings:
1) Kingzone DragonX
2) KT Rolster
3) Royal Never Give Up
4) Invictus Gaming
5) Rogue Warriors
6) Afreeca Freecs
7) SK Telecom
8) EDward Gaming
9) Flash Wolves
10) G-Rex
11) Machi eSports
12) MAD Team
This tournament is much closer to call in large part due to an increase in the quality of the LPL over this past year. The top LPL teams I feel can actually compete with Korea for a change because the level of competition domestically has improved drastically. Kingzone is the best team in the world to me despite recent struggles and if you read my work at all you know that. KT Rolster are #2 and it's mostly based on having the highest ceiling. In many ways this list is a "Best in the World" power rankings because the LPL and LCK are the two strongest regions right now in my opinion so if you exclude the LMS squads this is the Top 8 teams in the world.
RNG had an incredible showing at MSI and they almost always perform better at international events. They've been solid domestically and with Invictus, Rogue Warriors, and EDward Gaming pushing them the LPL has become just as competitive as the LCK for the first time I've ever seen. I'm grouping the Afreeca Freecs in this pod mostly because I don't think their ceiling is that high. They've had success being the "steady" team in the LCK and while they've taken some big series off the true elite teams I get the hunch that they're going to buckle a bit on the international stage especially because this is the first international experience for the majority of the squad. This should carry some weight because traditionally I'm the guy that says "mid tier LCK teams are better than every other region" but this year I'm not sure that's the case because the LPL is so improved. LPL also have "homefield" advantage if you believe in that. (I do but not heavily) Anyway...
SK Telecom have struggled but seem to know who they are and with potential metagame changes benefitting them I'm willing to give them the "best of the rest" honors at the very least but who knows, this team does have Bang and Faker. Historically SKT have not faired well in Best of One or double best of one round robin style tournaments. They almost always get out of groups but often with a few losses which is bad relative to being the best team in the world for the better part of five years. EDG have looked great in the LPL but I think they're a bit too one dimensional to succeed at such a cutthroat tournament. Flash Wolves are obliterating their region but as I've said time and time again this year, the LMS isn't quite as good as it used to be and Flash Wolves haven't had a lot of good competition to cut their teeth on and keep them sharp. Much like the last international event I expect them to get trounced for the most part. The rest of the LMS, like I just said, just isn't up to the level of this touranment and would likely lose to even the mid and bottom tier LCS teams to me.
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I don't normally go heavier than 3 units on best of one series and that formula has been very successful for me this season but I'm feeling pretty confident about my read on this tournament so I'm going to be risking a bit more than usual here. I'd encourage you to limit your action because best of ones are very volatile. There isn't going to be a lot of line value here because of the huge differences in quality and because of the best of one format so I'll be going heavy on the picks I like and making very few selections outside of those because the lines are just too big. If I'm going heavy on a -185 line you know I'm very confident about it.
Moneyline: Team Liquid -185 (6 units)
I got in on this line early on Tuesday once they were posted and it has sinced moved to TL -256.
To me this is the best team in the tournament for NA vs EU and Splyce would have been the worst team if 100 Thieves didn't do this very sudden roster change up. Like I said I do think this could work out better for 100 Thieves but on such short notice I'm not so sure. This line should be in the mid 200s or higher. TL are a clear favorite enough so that I think this line is actually a value even in best of ones. For comparison Echo Fox -169 vs Splyce is a line that I feel is a bit of a value for us still as that spread isn't big enough and TL are significantly better than everything I've seen from Splyce this season.
Moneyline: Echo Fox -152 vs Splyce (5 units)
Similar to the above, Echo Fox, despite their inconsistencies, are just a better squad top to bottom than Splyce are. I feel they have stronger players at every position as well as a true gamebreaker in Huni. This feels easy.
Moneyline: Echo Fox +126 vs Fnatic (3 units)
I think Fnatic are the second best team in the NA vs EU tournament but I also think they're playing handicapped with this meta (even though they've been good) and no Rekkles. Echo Fox have a high enough ceiling when they're playing well that they could pull an upset here. I like the potential for Huni to just run wild in this game and take over especially in a best of one.
Moneyline: G2 eSports -263 vs 100 Thieves (6 units)
This feels bad with so much juice but this is about as close to a free win as I could imagine. 100 Thieves are marching a roster that have never played a professional game together as out onto the Rift at an international competition. No matter how hopeful I might be that Levi could repeat his international expertise again, with such short notice I just doubt it and G2 are an established, solid team.
Moneyline: Rogue Warriors +156 vs KT Rolster (1 unit)
This is mostly a bet on the inconsistency of KT Rolster. While I think they're the second best team in the tournament (and the world to be honest), they punt random games and Rogue Warriors are a severely underrated squad going into this tournament. The LPL is legit this year and I could see a game one upset happening.
UPDATE: Added UNDER bets
KT Rolster @ MAD Team - 2 units - **PROP: UNDER 31:00 @ -116**
SK Telecom @ Machi eSports - 2 units - **PROP: UNDER 31:00 @ -116**
Invictus Gaming @ Machi eSports - 2 units - **PROP: UNDER 29:00 @ -116**
Royal Never Give Up @ Flash Wolves - 2 units - **PROP: UNDER 34:00 @ -102**
100 Thieves @ G2 eSports - 2 units - **PROP: UNDER 31:00 @ -116**
Fnatic @ Echo Fox - 2 units - **PROP: UNDER 33:00 @ -116**
Team Liquid @ Splyce - 2 units - **PROP: UNDER 32:00 @ -116**
Fnatic @ 100 Thieves - 2 units - **PROP: UNDER 31:00 @ -116**
Echo Fox @ Splyce - 2 units - **PROP: UNDER 33:00 @ -116**
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