Gen.G eSports (-833, -1.5 @ -217)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 17.5
MVP (+490, +1.5 @ +162)
KT Rolster (-179, -1.5 @ +165)
@ Over/Under 36:00, Total Kills 18.5
Hanwha Life eSports (+139, +1.5 @ -222)
(images compliments of lol.gamepedia.com)
Before we dive into the picks I want to discuss some of the standings implications for these matches. The final week of LCK is a shortened, three day week with every team playing one match EXCEPT for KT Rolster and MVP who have two. Playoff seeding for the Top 4 spots will likely rely a lot on tiebreakers like game differential and head-to-head matchups UNLESS there is an upset. Additionally remember that Korea uses a Playoff Gauntlet system. The #5 seed plays #4, winner plays #3, etc. so seeding is CRUCIAL.
Gen.G could move to 13-5 with a win which would put pressure on KT Rolster to actually win both of their matches this week. It would also force Kingzone to win their series in order to hold on to the #2 seed. KT Rolster, currently in the #4 seed, has the potential to end up with the #1 seed with back to back wins this week which is VERY feasable considering they face Hanwha tomorrow and MVP on Thursday. MVP are out of contention for the #7 spot but they're fighting for that #8 seed which would help them avoid the relegation tournament. With their challenger for that #8 seed Jin Air facing an Afreeca that could potentially be in "must win" situation if Hanwha were to lose today then I think we can consider MVP to be at least putting forth a full effort in these games as they do matter for something to them. There are other implications but I'll keep this relatively brief and pertinent to tomorrow's matches.
TL:DR - EVERYBODY is still playing for something EXCEPT BBQ Olivers and SK Telecom. Whether it's playoff gauntlet seeding, a playoff position, or to avoid relegation, the other eight teams all have a lot at stake and will be putting their all into these games. Al the top of the table is so close that every single game win and loss will count.
With that out of the way lets take a look at the picks.
Handicapped: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ -217 (8 units)
As discussed above, Gen.G are currently holding the #3 seed with only this match to go so they'll be doing everything in their power to put themselves in the best position here. Their scenarios range from #1 to #4. With a 2-0 win and a loss by any score from Kingzone AND KT losing one of their next two series AND specifically a Griffin 0-2 loss they could rocket up to the #1 seed. They could also end up in the #4 seed even if they win 2-0 and KT gets at least +1 wins in their next two matches (3-2 for example).
All of this is a lot to keep track of so I'm just going to give you my opinion on what I think the most likely outcome is for Gen.G which is that they end up with the #4 seed despite 2-0'ing this series. I just think KT having two matches to play is such a huge edge for them so I don't see the "dream" situation for Gen.G happening with the top end teams having such easy matches this week (besides KT vs HLE). If HLE win 2-1 then that forces a necessary 2-0 by KT later this week against MVP which could be riveting but I digress.
The point I'm getting at is that Gen.G want to make this a clean 2-0 sweep to give themselves the best chance at something great. The scary part is that they could also just punt this game to "not show anything" and still end up AT WORST with the #4 seed. However with such a competitive top of the table in Korea, and Gen.G only having 10 championship points from the Spring Split I think it's safe to assume they'll show up here because they'll want the best chance possible to either win the Summer Split or acrue a big point total to get in that way without having to play it out for the 3rd Worlds spot in that separate gauntlet. MVP are fighting to avoid relegation but unfortunately for them I think Jin Air have looked better and MVP are about to run into two buzzsaws that will need all the wins they can get this week in Gen.G and KT Rolster. Gen.G don't really "stomp" games by the nature of how they play but they should be able to cleanly dispatch MVP and take care of business. I know this team has a tendency to not show up when it matters (except at Worlds last year) but I think they've got this one. I don't really think MVP has a strong chance even if Gen.G didn't have much to play for so I'm going with a huge 8 unit wager on this pick.
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Moneyline: KT Rolster -179 (5 units)
Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +165 (2 units)
As discussed above, Gen.G are currently holding the #3 seed with only this match to go so they'll be doing everything in their power to put themselves in the best position here. Their scenarios range from #1 to #4. With a 2-0 win and a loss by any score from Kingzone AND KT losing one of their next two series AND specifically a Griffin 0-2 loss they could rocket up to the #1 seed. They could also end up in the #4 seed even if they win 2-0 and KT gets at least +1 wins in their next two matches (3-2 for example).
All of this is a lot to keep track of so I'm just going to give you my opinion on what I think the most likely outcome is for Gen.G which is that they end up with the #4 seed despite 2-0'ing this series. I just think KT having two matches to play is such a huge edge for them so I don't see the "dream" situation for Gen.G happening with the top end teams having such easy matches this week (besides KT vs HLE). If HLE win 2-1 then that forces a necessary 2-0 by KT later this week against MVP which could be riveting but I digress.
The point I'm getting at is that Gen.G want to make this a clean 2-0 sweep to give themselves the best chance at something great. The scary part is that they could also just punt this game to "not show anything" and still end up AT WORST with the #4 seed. However with such a competitive top of the table in Korea, and Gen.G only having 10 championship points from the Spring Split I think it's safe to assume they'll show up here because they'll want the best chance possible to either win the Summer Split or acrue a big point total to get in that way without having to play it out for the 3rd Worlds spot in that separate gauntlet. MVP are fighting to avoid relegation but unfortunately for them I think Jin Air have looked better and MVP are about to run into two buzzsaws that will need all the wins they can get this week in Gen.G and KT Rolster. Gen.G don't really "stomp" games by the nature of how they play but they should be able to cleanly dispatch MVP and take care of business. I know this team has a tendency to not show up when it matters (except at Worlds last year) but I think they've got this one. I don't really think MVP has a strong chance even if Gen.G didn't have much to play for so I'm going with a huge 8 unit wager on this pick.
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Moneyline: KT Rolster -179 (5 units)
Handicapped: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +165 (2 units)
As we've touched on a few times already this is, in my opinion, going to be the only competitive match this week but I happen to have a strong stance on it. We haven't discussed too much about Hanwha though. Hanwha have not mathematically secured the #5 seed away from Afreeca yet. If Hanwha lose and Afreeca win they'd have the same match score so the next tiebreaker is game differential. Currently Hanwha is 25-19 for +6 while Afreeca is 24-20 for +4. Afreeca winning 2-1 and Hanwha losing 1-2 would put them both at +5. Hanwha has the head to head tiebreaker so they'd get the #5 spot. If Hanwha gets 0-2'd and Afreeca wins by any score then Afreeca get it. If Afreeca lose then Hanwha get the spot no matter what. What this all means is that Hanwha are going to be giving it their all to take at least one game from KT Rolster so the logical bet would be to take the +1.5 or the KT 2-1 right? Yes that's right but we're looking to the next level.
KT would make their lives a lot easier with a 2-0 here and I personally think that, despite being right next to each other in the standings, there is a huge gap between the Top 4 teams and Afreeca and Hanwha. The metagame is trending back toward more traditional team compositions with either 2 or 2.5 core comps with a marksman becoming the norm again. Part of Hanwha's success this season was that they were good at the mage bottom comps ahead of the curve. As the season has gone on they've shown very limited progression. In other words they've stagnated. They aren't a one dimensional team by any stretch but they are limited in their potential upside. To me this team is well coached and disciplined but their ceiling isn't very high. They have a great player in Lava and everyone else is just pretty good or has been playing at their peak. Hanwha deserve to be the 5th or 6th best team and would likely trash teams from other regions but in Korea it's too competitive so it often comes down to how high your peaks can go. Historically the teams that do well in the late Summer in most regions are the ones that finally realize their potential, not the ones that are just maintaining and that's what I think is happening with these two teams.
I know it's just one match and I'm extrapolating but KT Rolster have choked in big spots and tasted bitter defeat in these situations enough times that I actually think they're going to buck the trend and utterly smash Hanwha here. It's KT's time. The metagame is in their favor, they've own 8 of their last 10 matches and they're going to have that extra fire in their belly because of both the playoff seeding battle and because Hanwha 2-0'd them last time out and they'll want payback. First place is within reach for them. With back to back 2-0's putting them at 13-5 and +15 that would create a situation where they would have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Griffin and Kingzone 2-0'ing would only put them at +13. What I'm saying to you all is that I'm confident that's how this is going to end up. Your playoff seeding will be: #1 - KT Rolster, #2 - Griffin, #3 - Kingzone, #4 - Gen.G, #5 - Afreeca. I'm VERY LIKELY going to up the unit count on this but I'll admit I'm going to wait and see how the first match goes. I'll perhaps put winnings from that towards upgrading this.
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LOL Pro League (China) 8/7 Schedule:
Invictus Gaming (-714, -1.5 @ -189)
@ Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 24.5
BiliBili Gaming (+447, +1.5 @ +141)
Royal Never Give Up (-435, -1.5 @ -154)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5
Suning Gaming (+307, +1.5 @ +113)Invictus Gaming (-714, -1.5 @ -189)
@ Over/Under 33:00, Total Kills 24.5
BiliBili Gaming (+447, +1.5 @ +141)
Royal Never Give Up (-435, -1.5 @ -154)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5
I like the direction the metagame is going for BiliBili but they'd been struggling to cleanly beat even bottom of the table teams like WE and OMG (who they lost to 0-2). Invictus are just going to run this team over. A common reservation for this match is going to be that Invictus have clinched playoffs and are two matches ahead of second place AND they have second place RNG on the slate later this week so why would they care about this? I'm going with the opposite angle. I think Invictus are going to want to clean up shop here and then beat RNG so they can eithe rest or conceal strategies for the last two weeks because they'll have the #1 seed locked up with back-to-back wins here this week. Stylistically this is a nightmare for BiliBili. Invictus have the fastest game time in the LPL at 29:17 (second is Rogue Warriors at 31:05). They are one of the best early game teams on the planet and BiliBili, much like WE, often concede the early game in an attempt to scale. The counterargument to this pick is that, while winning their last seven series in a row, Invictus have dropped one game in the past six of those series. Some of those have included weaker teams and similar teams to Bilibili like the aforementioned Team WE but I think Invictus squarely clean this one up. You're looking at a team that just beat Rogue Warriors in 24:24 and 19:54... that's right 19:54! Rogue Warriors are MILES better than BiliBili and I'm going to choose to go against the trend on this one and slam Invictus.
I might end up going with the UNDER's too here. Check twitter.
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Handicapped: RNG -1.5 maps @ -154 (2-4 units PENDING)
I might end up going with the -1.5 maps here but I'm going to wait until closer to game time to see how much I wager. If I hear definitively that Uzi is playing then I'll likely go 4 units on this. If not it'll either be smaller or no bet. Suning have been pretty good this season but they've also lost to WE and TopSports (yesterday) so I'm really not sure what to think of them. I know what they're good at and that's playing through Fury mid and late and H4cker getting them to that point from the jungle but I think RNG have the answers. They tend to handle these types of teams well. With Uzi in the lineup RNG handedly stomped this in under 63 minutes total their first meeting in Week 2. Check Twitter for this one as well.
I might end up going with the -1.5 maps here but I'm going to wait until closer to game time to see how much I wager. If I hear definitively that Uzi is playing then I'll likely go 4 units on this. If not it'll either be smaller or no bet. Suning have been pretty good this season but they've also lost to WE and TopSports (yesterday) so I'm really not sure what to think of them. I know what they're good at and that's playing through Fury mid and late and H4cker getting them to that point from the jungle but I think RNG have the answers. They tend to handle these types of teams well. With Uzi in the lineup RNG handedly stomped this in under 63 minutes total their first meeting in Week 2. Check Twitter for this one as well.
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