TopSports Gaming (-208, -1.5 @ +138)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 24.5
FunPlus Phoenix (+159, +1.5 @ -182)
EDward Gaming (-263, -1.5 @ +114
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 23.5
Team WE (+200, +1.5 @ -147
Rogue Warriors (-667, -1.5 @ -192)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5
OMG (+421, +1.5 @ +145)
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Moneyline: TopSports Gaming -208 (2 units)
PROP: Exact TopSports 2-1 @ +233 (0.5 unit)
PROP: Over 2.5 total games @ +113 (1 unit)
TopSports still make me pretty uneasy. I don't want to say a lot of their wins have been flukes because they haven't been but it still feels that way. Their match against EDG was just chock full of really bizarre situations but a lot of their matches have been and this team just gets it done. If we consider EDG in this tier now (read: we misevaluated and this team is worse than we all thought), then we have FunPlus who are either bottom of mid tier or top of low tier depending on who you ask, I think it's pretty reasonable to expect a TopSports victory but I'm just skeptical on the sweep. TopSports have only 2-0'd Snake and Team WE this season. They've also been 0-2'd fur times including one to OMG. EVERY OTHER MATCH has been a three game series. These two teams played a competitive back and forth series the first time around and I expect the same to happen again but I'm breaking ties in favor of TopSports. Moyu has been playing out of his mind the past two series absorbing ganks effectively, minimizing losses, and demonstrating masterful Gangplank play which can be a pick that draws bans. FunPlus tend to put a lot of draft stock and resources toward GimGoon so I'm thinking Moyu can neutralize FunPlus' style with how he's been playing recently and they can get enough other advantages on the map to take this one down.
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Handicapped: EDG -1.5 maps @ +114 (2 units)
I know I know EDG have looked like garbage and we've been burned by them a few times this week but they're such a bad matchup for Team WE. This is one of the better early game teams against one of the worst early game teams in any region. As long as EDG stick to what they're good at they could be at half effectiveness and probably still win this series 2-0. A week ago this would have been a slam dunk 5+ unit play, I'm doing something I don't normally do and keeping it tame out of fear here. I think this is the right play but damn it feels bad right now.
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Handicapped: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ -192 (4 units)
This is another match I'm dialing back just a bit because I'm not sure the temperment Rogue Warriors will have. They haven't mathematically locked up first yet but they have a few more matches to do so. I'm putting my money on Rogue Warriors being a prideful team, led by DoinB's attitude, that simply enjoy smashing bad teams too much to pass up this opportunity. OMG aren't going to roll over here as they're not technically eliminated from playoff contention yet although it's a real long shot being two series behind both FunPlus AND Snake.
This series is basically asking "Does Rogue Warriors care about this match still?" If you think they do then I think you can faithfully drop a 4-5 unit wager on the handicap, if you think they take the foot off the gas and OMG fight tooth and nail for their playoff spot then I think it's best to go with the OMG +1.5 or avoid this. Personally I think Rogue Warriors could 2-0 this even without much incentive to do so and this win would technically LOCK the #1 seed for them.
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European LCS 8/11 Schedule
ROCCAT -159 2 units LOSS
I threw this up on reddit and twitter late last night. Didn't work out.
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North American LCS 8/11 Schedule
Going a little heavier than usual on the LCS today. I actually like a few of these plays but my limit is 3 units as it has been all season for the LCS regions outside of live bets. Best of ones and all.
Moneyline: Echo Fox +122 (2 units)
I think Echo Fox can break the "NA blue side" trend here. I know I'm Mr. 100 Thieves hater and all but Echo Fox have been themselves. Sloppy sometimes but very overwhelming most of the time. I just think Huni and Dardoch can take over a game more than Aphromoo here and this line should be much closer to even than it is. This is a combination of me thinking Echo Fox are the stronger team, going against the grain on the blue side trend (they were blue last time they met) which isn't to be taken lightly if you ask League reddit (lol), and breaking ties in favor of game breakers. Great players take over games like this and I expect that to be the case today.
Moneyline: Team Liquid -250 (3 units)
Liquid could move another game toward securing first place and I don't think they'll be "looking past" OpTic here with each game mattering so much. They're just in another class and are, to me, the best team in NA.
Moneyline: Team Solo Mid -156 (3 units)
I think we're overthinking this just because TSM have had a rough season. Counter Logic Gaming might be the worst team in the LCS this split and they just fired their coach. There's a chance there's a surge of energy from them because of that and ultimately I think it's a good move but TSM absolutely NEED this win. At some point talented players just win games and they haven't been. I think I was wrong on my preseason outlook for TSM but this team is almost certainly better than they've shown.
PARLAY: Liquid -250 + C9 -250 + TSM -156 + Echo fox +122 (0.5 units @ +614)
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