Kingzone DragonX (-256, -1.5 @ +116)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 17.5
SK Telecom (+194, +1.5 @ -152)
KT Rolster (-909, -1.5 @ -286)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 17.5
MVP (+538, +1.5 @ +192)
(image from lol.gamepedia.com)
So with Hanwha losing yesterday they knocked themselves out of the "money" of Championship Points and since they received none last season they are actually completely done for the season. It's kinda sad because they were a competitive team this season and tried hard every single week, besides those few weird ones in the middle of this season. They have some solid foundations and great coaching and I think if they can put some players around Lava this could be a real threat moving forward as some of these other players age. What HLE being eliminated does is open the door for SK Telecom to play in the Worlds Gauntlet when that rolls around since they had 30 Championship Points from finishing 4th last split.
Handicapped: Kingzone -1.5 maps @ +116 (8 units) (PICK OF THE WEEK!)
Does this mean SKT will suddenly be trying hard for this last match? Not necessarily. Just more likely. They still have nothing to play for in this match and I think would more likely not show anything/opt to rest starters in preparation for a difficult push through a highly competitive gauntlet. Kingzone on the other hand could take over the #2 seed with SPECIFICALLY a 2-0 victory. Why a 2-0 specifically? Because that would put them to 13-5 match record, and +13 games. They NEED to 2-0 this series because Gen.G holds the head-to-head tiebreaker against them so a 2-1 would put them at +12 which is the same as Gen.G and the next tiebreaker is H2H. If it wasn't for these specific circumstances and the playoff seeding being so crucial in such a competitive region AND the playoff format itself I wouldn't like this pick but because it is I'm absolutely in love with Kingzone to 2-0 this. Combine that with the fact that Kingzone have displayed the trajectory that so many great teams in every league have showed us. A slow, dull start to the Summer, likely from resting players or from players just avoiding burnout by practicing less, a ramp up after a few wake up call losses, and back into form just in time for the end of season and playoffs. It's a script as old as professional League of Legends itself and you see it in traditional sports as well (think the Pittsburgh Penguins every year).
Going into this season back in January I pinned Kingzone as the best team in the World and for awhile they looked like it but they started showing vulnerabilities. Do I still think they're the best team in the world? I'm not as confident as I was but I do think they're in the top two or three names. This is a monster of a team with their eyes set on the #2 seed. SK Telecom have nothing to really play for except for repetitions and I feel this will be a situation where the subs potentially start to get them some more stage experience for the last time this year. I sitll think we'll see Pirean and Effort and potentially Blossom and Leo as well.
Do the math. Subs playing for stage time vs one of the strongest teams on the planet over the past few years that's hungry for a #2 seed and NEEDS to specifically 2-0 to get that. This is a slam dunk and my Pick of the Week.
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PROP: Decided map played? NO @ -233 (5 units)
PROP: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -114 (1 unit)
PROP: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -114 (1 unit)
For some reason this had stronger odds for us than the -1.5 @ -286 so we'll take it. I fully expect a KT 2-0 for similar reasons to a Kingzone 2-0. The situation for KT Rolster is that they're trying to reach Griffin who are 13-5 match score with a +15 game differential. KT Rolster is 12-5 with a +13 game differential so with a 2-0 win they would advance to tie Griffin at 13-5 match, +15 game. The catch is that KT Rolster hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. However MVP are not without something to play for. Unlike SK Telecom in the previous series MVP will be putting their best effort out to avoid the relegation tournament. The problem is that in order to avoid relegations they'd need to specifically 2-0 KT Rolster. A 2-1 wouldn't be good enough because their game differential would fall below Jin Air's -17.
So now that we know the stakes why am I going with KT? "But Gelati, the KT Rollercoaster!?!?! They always lose in spots like this!" They always lose in spots like earlier this week too. KT Rolster has a history of choking but I'm one to believe that can change. This team is playing at an absolutely ridiculous level right now. They utterly smashed Hanwha Life earlier this week. Like a full on embarassment. It looked like a mismatched solo queue game. Even if KT went out and parties their asses off I think they could beat MVP hungover. I also think this is stylistically and strategically a terrible matchup. MVP's best player is ADD in the top lane and Smeb could wipe the floor with him with the way he's been playing the past few weeks. MVP's worst player, to me at least, is Ian and UCal is going to have his way with him. UCal destroyed Lava, a budding star, in a matchup where he was counterpicked, had no jungle help, and was FORCING FIGHTS not playing defensively. KT's confidence is at a ridiculous level right now and I'm expecting these to be definitive stomps "KT Rollercoaster" or not. The only reasons this isn't a heavier play is because MVP actually have something to play for and the juice is really high.
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PARLAYS:
Does this mean SKT will suddenly be trying hard for this last match? Not necessarily. Just more likely. They still have nothing to play for in this match and I think would more likely not show anything/opt to rest starters in preparation for a difficult push through a highly competitive gauntlet. Kingzone on the other hand could take over the #2 seed with SPECIFICALLY a 2-0 victory. Why a 2-0 specifically? Because that would put them to 13-5 match record, and +13 games. They NEED to 2-0 this series because Gen.G holds the head-to-head tiebreaker against them so a 2-1 would put them at +12 which is the same as Gen.G and the next tiebreaker is H2H. If it wasn't for these specific circumstances and the playoff seeding being so crucial in such a competitive region AND the playoff format itself I wouldn't like this pick but because it is I'm absolutely in love with Kingzone to 2-0 this. Combine that with the fact that Kingzone have displayed the trajectory that so many great teams in every league have showed us. A slow, dull start to the Summer, likely from resting players or from players just avoiding burnout by practicing less, a ramp up after a few wake up call losses, and back into form just in time for the end of season and playoffs. It's a script as old as professional League of Legends itself and you see it in traditional sports as well (think the Pittsburgh Penguins every year).
Going into this season back in January I pinned Kingzone as the best team in the World and for awhile they looked like it but they started showing vulnerabilities. Do I still think they're the best team in the world? I'm not as confident as I was but I do think they're in the top two or three names. This is a monster of a team with their eyes set on the #2 seed. SK Telecom have nothing to really play for except for repetitions and I feel this will be a situation where the subs potentially start to get them some more stage experience for the last time this year. I sitll think we'll see Pirean and Effort and potentially Blossom and Leo as well.
Do the math. Subs playing for stage time vs one of the strongest teams on the planet over the past few years that's hungry for a #2 seed and NEEDS to specifically 2-0 to get that. This is a slam dunk and my Pick of the Week.
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PROP: Decided map played? NO @ -233 (5 units)
PROP: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -114 (1 unit)
PROP: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -114 (1 unit)
For some reason this had stronger odds for us than the -1.5 @ -286 so we'll take it. I fully expect a KT 2-0 for similar reasons to a Kingzone 2-0. The situation for KT Rolster is that they're trying to reach Griffin who are 13-5 match score with a +15 game differential. KT Rolster is 12-5 with a +13 game differential so with a 2-0 win they would advance to tie Griffin at 13-5 match, +15 game. The catch is that KT Rolster hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. However MVP are not without something to play for. Unlike SK Telecom in the previous series MVP will be putting their best effort out to avoid the relegation tournament. The problem is that in order to avoid relegations they'd need to specifically 2-0 KT Rolster. A 2-1 wouldn't be good enough because their game differential would fall below Jin Air's -17.
So now that we know the stakes why am I going with KT? "But Gelati, the KT Rollercoaster!?!?! They always lose in spots like this!" They always lose in spots like earlier this week too. KT Rolster has a history of choking but I'm one to believe that can change. This team is playing at an absolutely ridiculous level right now. They utterly smashed Hanwha Life earlier this week. Like a full on embarassment. It looked like a mismatched solo queue game. Even if KT went out and parties their asses off I think they could beat MVP hungover. I also think this is stylistically and strategically a terrible matchup. MVP's best player is ADD in the top lane and Smeb could wipe the floor with him with the way he's been playing the past few weeks. MVP's worst player, to me at least, is Ian and UCal is going to have his way with him. UCal destroyed Lava, a budding star, in a matchup where he was counterpicked, had no jungle help, and was FORCING FIGHTS not playing defensively. KT's confidence is at a ridiculous level right now and I'm expecting these to be definitive stomps "KT Rollercoaster" or not. The only reasons this isn't a heavier play is because MVP actually have something to play for and the juice is really high.
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PARLAYS:
NOTE: I put these in before full deciding on my specific plays for the game so if you decide to tail this get the bet I used in the pick of NO DECIDER MAP PLAYED @ -233 in the KT match for better odds rather than the -1.5 @ -286.
KT Rolster -1.5 @ -286 + Kingzone -256 - 5 units - total odds: -114
KT Rolster -1.5 @ -286 + Kingzone -1.5 @ +116 - 5 units - total odds: +192KT Rolster -1.5 @ -286 + Kingzone -1.5 @ +116 + Hong Kong Attitude -370 - 1 unit - total odds: +270
KT Rolster -1.5 @ -286 + Kingzone -1.5 @ +116 + Hong Kong Attitude -370 + JD Gaming -370 + RNG -1.5 @ -263 - 1 unit - total odds: +549
Mixed parlay set here banking on what I think is a fairly easy to predict set of matches. We have called every match down to game score correct this week (even if we didn't necessarily bet it or bet in that direction for value reasons) EXCEPT EDG yesterday who are just raining on our parade.
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