Betting: August 6th (LPL)

LOL Pro League (China) 8/6 Schedule:

TopSports Gaming (-192, -1.5 @ +153)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 23.5
Team WE (+148, +1.5 @ -204)


FunPlus Phoenix (-156, -1.5 @ +179)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 22.5

OMG (+122, +1.5 @ -244)

Moneyline: TopSports Gaming -192 (2 units)

Handicapped: TopSports -1.5 @ +153 (1 unit)

PROP: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ -114 (0.5 unit)

PROP: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ -114 (0.5 unit)

This slate in the LPL tomorrow is extremely difficult to call because all of these teams are remarkably inconsistent despite their total records and placements. TopSports is likely the strongest team in this bunch with a 15-17 game record while the others are 11 wins or less but I wouldn't call them a good team. This is usually a spot where I'll put a unit on the underdogs if the numbers are a big enough spread just because bad teams are closer to 50/50 when facing each other than even some good teams vs great teams so I like playing underdogs in those situations however I think TopSports have actually looked pretty good as of late and Team WE dropped a game to Vici yesterday. "But Gelati it's only one game?" you're right it's only one game but it's against the worst team in the league. Team WE did come back to convincingly win the next two so let's give them credit for that.

The thing with both of these teams is that they've had decent highs and low lows so it's tough to get a grasp. On paper Team WE are the better team both in metrics and just the player eye test but TopSports have been getting the job done all season. They've really taken advantage of the non-traditional ADCs and have been utilizing picks like Swain, Vladimir, and Morgana excellently which puts a lot of the weaker teams in a tough spot when drafting. They often get first blood and while their average game time is just about the league average they tend to win the matches in which they get ahead because of the snowbally compositions they play. Team WE are the opposite, opting to play traditional ADC's which are making their way back into the meta and slowly scaling into the late game.

I think TopSports are going to smoke this matchup and maybe this is a suckers bet between two fairly bad teams but this is a big stylistic mismatch for Team WE. TopSports have utilized the mage carries and Lucian to punish scaling bot lanes like Team WE like to play effectively all season and I think we'll see that again here. They're also coming off of a nice win against a team I'd consider a tier above them in Suning Gaming who remind me a lot of Team WE of old when they had a jungler that actually started fights to help carry their early game so they could scale. Suning are what Team WE want to be but are actually pretty good and TopSports beat them 2-1, they only failed to close it out in time in Game Two. The other options for bets in this match is to take the Over 2.5 games @ -125 or the exact TSG 2-1 but I'm liking TopSports to 2-0 this. They should be able to snowball off their bot lane and beat Team WE before they get to do what they like to do. Team WE haven't been a good defensive team which is a bad combination with wanting to scale every game (the exception being the TK + Orianna bot series against Suning which is easily bannable). TopSports could also take over 3rd place in the conference with a win to take a half match lead on Snake as well as come one series closer to locking at least the 4th playoff spot since OMG trail them by two series. Team WE have nothing to play for at this point. I'm still limiting this wager because I don't like going heavy on mediocre to bad teams but I'm fairly confident in TopSports here. I also like the under for half a unit each game. 

------------------------------------------------------------------

FunPlus vs OMG

PROP: OVER 2.5 maps @ +107 (2 units)

FunPlus Phoenix have looked absolutely terrible in their past four sweries (including their 2-1 win over Vici) but then they took a series off RNG and a game off JD before that so what team are we going to see here? Personally I think this FunPlus team is garbage but they at least know who they are and that's a squad that plays around GimGoon's champion pool of weird top lane picks. OMG nearly had a perfect game against Invictus last week, 2-0'd BiliBili, and had a competitive game two against JD in their match this morning. They haven't really had a lot of consistency but they've been a team that reminds me of Jin Air, they're still playing hard, haven't quit on their season. OMG and TopSports aren't completely out of the playoff race yet. They trail both Snake and TopSports by 2 series so with a good run here they could actually still get into playoffs and potentially even take the 3rd seed. This should be a comptetive series. Both of these teams NEED this series to stay alive for playoffs and both could pull ahead of the other with a win here since they're tied in the standings.