JD Gaming (-303, -1.5 @ -102)
@ Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 17.5
BiliBili Gaming (+225, +1.5 @ -128)
Royal Never Give Up (-1250, -1.5 @ -263)
@ Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 17.5
Vici Gaming (+662, +1.5 @ +186)
We had an utterly ridiculous undefeated day yesterday spiking all four of our straight bets including our pick of the week AS WELL AS a bunch of huge parlays. All in all we ended up over 30 units on the day for my biggest day of the season. It's just a shame the LCK regular season is over but let's see if we can improve our LPL results and get them back into the green again.
PENDING PARLAY:
total odds: +549 on a 1 unit play, would be a nice payoff. If this ends up being correct then I'll be extra salty about the seven teamer that EDG ruined that would've been a 15 unit payout... anyway here we go!
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Handicapped: JD Gaming -1.5 @ -102 (5 units)
JD have quietly moved into the upper echelon of LPL teams and quite frankly I think they're better than EDG. It's not just our most recent loss with EDG (imagine the parlay plays I had with them tacked on to todays.... grrr). This has been a steady drumbeat since Rift Rivals. Something is going on with EDG. I don't know if it's that they don't care or their players are just burnt out but they need to do something. Their drafts have been fairly one dimensional but not overtly bad or anything like that. Anyway the reason I'm talking about EDG is because I think that was the last "bad" loss this JD team had and it was early last week. Game one they could have lost but stalled it to 50+ minutes and took it from EDG, then got smashed in 25 minutes by EDG in game two and then smashed EDG right back in 23 minutes in game three. The 2-1 series loss to TopSports suddenly looks forgiveable not only because TopSports has been much better this season and is firmly a "better than bottom tier" team but because it was only JD's SECOND SERIES LOSS ... Let that sink in people. This team has only lost one series since losing their first match 2-1 to Invictus who look like the best team in China right now. That was on June 11th. JUNE 11th!
BiliBili have recently had days where they look like they've finally figured it out and are on course and then other, more frequent, series where they still look lost and without identity. If you consider EDG, TopSports, and FunPlus in the mid tier then BiliBili appear to be the inconsistent, slow start mid tier team that's capable of taking games off other good teams. Remember this is a team that also took a game off Rogue Warriors a few weeks ago but BiliBili have also lost games to LGD, got obliterated by OMG, and dropped a game to WE last week. BiliBili should be better than they are, and I actually do think they're a mid tier team but they started off so slow (1-5) that they're more or less eliminated from playoff contention at this point (unless they win out and Suning can't win two series).
You could look at this two ways; JD are due for a loss or JD should destroy BiliBili. What I mean by "due for a loss" is will drop a game. I'm choosing the JD should destroy BiliBili option not only because I believe it's true but because the -303 is a dumb moneyline to bet when we can take the -102 value. Yes I know I always expect the 2-0 from heavy favorites but JD are loosely in a similar situation to a lot of what we saw in the LCK this week where they could potentially take the #2 seed from RNG. RNG are 11-4 match score, 24-11 game score, JD have 2 series in tow sitting at 11-2 and 24-12. When the difference between 2nd and 3rd is a bye into quarterfinals you play hard for that and I think it's totally in cards for JD to take the #2 seed with or without Uzi playing for RNG. Having that 2 series advantage is going to be a massive edge for them.
I'm taking the JD handicap here. They're actually a great team and BiliBili haven't been even when they've looked more themselves. Also this is a stylistic mismatch with JD able to play uptempo exceptionally as well as scaling compositions. It's going to put BBG in a bind in drafts. There's an added bonus here of BBG shuffling their lineup a lot and there's a high likelihood we see some of their lesser played players to get stage experience for next season or to "see what they have" like a traditional sports team preparing for next year even if they aren't really eliminated mathematically. JD only have their 5 players that have started every single game this season and I see no reason for them to change that. Looks like another lock to me.
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RNG vs Vici
PROP: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -114 (1 unit)
PROP: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -114 (1 unit)
PROP: RNG First Blood @ -192 (1 unit)
PROP: RNG First Blood @ -192 (1 unit)
This should be a complete obliteration regardless of what lineup or positions RNG's players play. Vici suck and RNG are at least very good no matter who is playing where on that roster. The juice is just too high for me on this. I don't normally like playing over 200, I did for KT yesterday but this is just a bit much for me and China is a weirder region in situations like this. I do think that RNG will be playing hard here as they'll need as many wins as possible to fend off JD Gaming from getting the #2 seed and JD have 2 more series to play than RNG does the rest of the way. I'll be parlaying this pick instead of playing it straight up.
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European LCS 8/10 Schedule
Misfits -556 @ H2K +369
FC Schalke 04 -122 @ Team Vitality -104
Fnatic -345 @ Giants +252
ROCCAT +114 @ Splyce -145
Unicorns of Love +218 @ G2 eSports -294
Moneyline: ROCCAT +114 (2 units)
So I know I haven't had too much action on Europe and the NA LCS this split mostly because I'm trying to dodge best of ones and that's been fairly good for me but after rewatching a few of these matches from last week again I have a few conclusions. I'll discuss all of them here right now because this is my only non-parlay pick tomorrow.
Splyce are bad. They're a team that surrenders the early game and isn't even that great of a late game team and unlike the other mid tier teams like ROCCAT and Giants they have no real redeeming characteristics. This is a tema that quite honestly looks checked-out which sounds really weird to say for a current playoff team but is true. I'm not going to put too much into the H2K loss because it's really easy for teams to not take a team seriously especially when they're 0-13 but honestly Splyce were mega sloppy in that game, beat a Misfits team that was as lazy as Splyce were against H2K and resting on their laurels.. It's difficult to extract relevant data from best of ones as it could just be a flash in the pan type of scenario but this team just doesn't seem to have that competitive edge to me.
Now maybe they realize their playoff chances are in jeopardy and they turn it up. If that happens then I'll eat my hat on it but I like the constant effort and try-hard mentality of ROCCAT for an upset here. Other than last weeks loss to Giants ROCCAT haven't really had any bad losses and a lot of those have been really competitive games against top level teams like Misfits and Fnatic. ROCCAT also lost the first meeting between these two teams in late June so they'll have vengeance on the mind especially for a potential tiebreak scenario. Of course limited wager here because of best of ones and the volatility of EU but I like ROCCAT for a couple units to pull the upset here and Splyce to get punished for their seemingly lazy attitude.
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PARLAYS:
PENDING PARLAY:
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Handicapped: JD Gaming -1.5 @ -102 (5 units)
JD have quietly moved into the upper echelon of LPL teams and quite frankly I think they're better than EDG. It's not just our most recent loss with EDG (imagine the parlay plays I had with them tacked on to todays.... grrr). This has been a steady drumbeat since Rift Rivals. Something is going on with EDG. I don't know if it's that they don't care or their players are just burnt out but they need to do something. Their drafts have been fairly one dimensional but not overtly bad or anything like that. Anyway the reason I'm talking about EDG is because I think that was the last "bad" loss this JD team had and it was early last week. Game one they could have lost but stalled it to 50+ minutes and took it from EDG, then got smashed in 25 minutes by EDG in game two and then smashed EDG right back in 23 minutes in game three. The 2-1 series loss to TopSports suddenly looks forgiveable not only because TopSports has been much better this season and is firmly a "better than bottom tier" team but because it was only JD's SECOND SERIES LOSS ... Let that sink in people. This team has only lost one series since losing their first match 2-1 to Invictus who look like the best team in China right now. That was on June 11th. JUNE 11th!
BiliBili have recently had days where they look like they've finally figured it out and are on course and then other, more frequent, series where they still look lost and without identity. If you consider EDG, TopSports, and FunPlus in the mid tier then BiliBili appear to be the inconsistent, slow start mid tier team that's capable of taking games off other good teams. Remember this is a team that also took a game off Rogue Warriors a few weeks ago but BiliBili have also lost games to LGD, got obliterated by OMG, and dropped a game to WE last week. BiliBili should be better than they are, and I actually do think they're a mid tier team but they started off so slow (1-5) that they're more or less eliminated from playoff contention at this point (unless they win out and Suning can't win two series).
You could look at this two ways; JD are due for a loss or JD should destroy BiliBili. What I mean by "due for a loss" is will drop a game. I'm choosing the JD should destroy BiliBili option not only because I believe it's true but because the -303 is a dumb moneyline to bet when we can take the -102 value. Yes I know I always expect the 2-0 from heavy favorites but JD are loosely in a similar situation to a lot of what we saw in the LCK this week where they could potentially take the #2 seed from RNG. RNG are 11-4 match score, 24-11 game score, JD have 2 series in tow sitting at 11-2 and 24-12. When the difference between 2nd and 3rd is a bye into quarterfinals you play hard for that and I think it's totally in cards for JD to take the #2 seed with or without Uzi playing for RNG. Having that 2 series advantage is going to be a massive edge for them.
I'm taking the JD handicap here. They're actually a great team and BiliBili haven't been even when they've looked more themselves. Also this is a stylistic mismatch with JD able to play uptempo exceptionally as well as scaling compositions. It's going to put BBG in a bind in drafts. There's an added bonus here of BBG shuffling their lineup a lot and there's a high likelihood we see some of their lesser played players to get stage experience for next season or to "see what they have" like a traditional sports team preparing for next year even if they aren't really eliminated mathematically. JD only have their 5 players that have started every single game this season and I see no reason for them to change that. Looks like another lock to me.
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RNG vs Vici
PROP: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -114 (1 unit)
PROP: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -114 (1 unit)
PROP: RNG First Blood @ -192 (1 unit)
PROP: RNG First Blood @ -192 (1 unit)
This should be a complete obliteration regardless of what lineup or positions RNG's players play. Vici suck and RNG are at least very good no matter who is playing where on that roster. The juice is just too high for me on this. I don't normally like playing over 200, I did for KT yesterday but this is just a bit much for me and China is a weirder region in situations like this. I do think that RNG will be playing hard here as they'll need as many wins as possible to fend off JD Gaming from getting the #2 seed and JD have 2 more series to play than RNG does the rest of the way. I'll be parlaying this pick instead of playing it straight up.
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European LCS 8/10 Schedule
Misfits -556 @ H2K +369
FC Schalke 04 -122 @ Team Vitality -104
Fnatic -345 @ Giants +252
ROCCAT +114 @ Splyce -145
Unicorns of Love +218 @ G2 eSports -294
Moneyline: ROCCAT +114 (2 units)
So I know I haven't had too much action on Europe and the NA LCS this split mostly because I'm trying to dodge best of ones and that's been fairly good for me but after rewatching a few of these matches from last week again I have a few conclusions. I'll discuss all of them here right now because this is my only non-parlay pick tomorrow.
Splyce are bad. They're a team that surrenders the early game and isn't even that great of a late game team and unlike the other mid tier teams like ROCCAT and Giants they have no real redeeming characteristics. This is a tema that quite honestly looks checked-out which sounds really weird to say for a current playoff team but is true. I'm not going to put too much into the H2K loss because it's really easy for teams to not take a team seriously especially when they're 0-13 but honestly Splyce were mega sloppy in that game, beat a Misfits team that was as lazy as Splyce were against H2K and resting on their laurels.. It's difficult to extract relevant data from best of ones as it could just be a flash in the pan type of scenario but this team just doesn't seem to have that competitive edge to me.
Now maybe they realize their playoff chances are in jeopardy and they turn it up. If that happens then I'll eat my hat on it but I like the constant effort and try-hard mentality of ROCCAT for an upset here. Other than last weeks loss to Giants ROCCAT haven't really had any bad losses and a lot of those have been really competitive games against top level teams like Misfits and Fnatic. ROCCAT also lost the first meeting between these two teams in late June so they'll have vengeance on the mind especially for a potential tiebreak scenario. Of course limited wager here because of best of ones and the volatility of EU but I like ROCCAT for a couple units to pull the upset here and Splyce to get punished for their seemingly lazy attitude.
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PARLAYS:
Parlay (2): JD -1.5 @ -102 + RNG -1.5 @ -263 (3 units) total odds: +173
Parlay (4): JD -1.5 @ -102 + RNG -1.5 @ -263 + JTeam -455 + AHQ -250 (0.75 units) total odds: +367
Parlay (6): JD -1.5 @ -102 + RNG -1.5 @ -263 + JTeam -455 + AHQ -250 + Gambit -323 + M19 -556 (1 unit) total odds: +621
Parlay (4): Misfits -556 + ROCCAT +114 + Fnatic -345 + G2 -294 - 0.5 units - total odds: +337
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