Gelati's League of Legends Blog

Saturday, February 24, 2018

Betting: February 25th (LCK / LPL / LMS / TCL / NA LCS)

Had two different roams/ganks gone one auto attack differently TSM would have likely snowballed and defeated Cloud 9, the other top team in North America.
Had that happened they would have defeated the #1 and #2 in back to back weeks.
OpTic Gaming : 1761 gold per mind, 1821 damage per min, -51 gold differential per min, -362 gold differential at 15 minutes
TSM: 1855 gold per min, 2080 damage per min, +11 gold differential per min, +1119 gold differential at 15 minutes.
TSM have the advantage individually at every single position
TSM have the advantage in the top+jungle and mid+jungle pairings.
TSM have a severe advantage in the bottom lane.
If OpTic starts rookie call-up Dhokla again today he'll have a significantly harder time than he did against Lourlo (likely the weakest top laner in NA this split) who he faced yesterday. TSM's Hauntzer is one of the best at the position in the league.
Despite generally passive play until recent weeks, TSM have a 57.3 Early Game Rating (50 is base so above means good, below means bad).
OpTic have a 46.9 Early Game Rating (worse than expected value)
Like them or not, TSM have a collection of the best individual players in North America and are starting to finally gel together after early season struggles.

I had this TSM team starting slow, growing into their potentially sky high ceiling and finishing the Spring Split with a title. While I may not have them finishing with the title still, this team is still significantly better than they've shown so far this year. After a rocky start that hasn't had them in the top half until this week, I think it's time for them to finally realize that potential. These are a handful of veteran players and OpTic is a bottom 3 team, that despite some good performances, has more or less met the expectations of an 8th place or so team.

Result: WIN

MikeYeung looked much more disciplined and Bjergsen just destroying people on Ryze. This was a pretty clean victory.

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Moneyline: FlyQuest +116 (2 units)

(UPDATE: As I was writing this this line moved to 100t -147 @ Fly +116)

(UPDATE 2: Added half a unit since this line moved yet again to FlyQuest +131)

(UPDATE: 3: This draft sucks and is way too execution based for this roster. I hedged entirely)

FlyQuest and Liquid played a really weird game yesterday that FlyQuest could have potentially come back in after a couple of Liquid throws. It just had really bizarre pacing and decision making by both squads. Now sometimes teams fall into weird games and act strangely themselves but I think that more or less cemented FlyQuest as a cut below the top half teams which is something I already thought of them. 100 Thieves looked really clean in their upset victory over Cloud 9. They were showing proactive play for a change and not just rolling over and dying! Perhaps their claims of a new direction are true but I'm taking FlyQuest.

People tend to overreact to upset victories over top teams. That was one of the only games in NA LCS I didn't bet this season was CLG after they defeated Echo Fox because I wasn't going to fall into the trap narrative that "they beat the best team." If a team shows a trend or consistent performance against top teams (like TSM in recent weeks) that's a different situation. One game does not a trend make. This 100 Thieves team benefitted greatly from having a good read on the metagame, a meta that happened to allow them 50/50 chances to beat better teams. While I admire their adaptation and new approach yesterday I happen to think they were "up" for chopping down Cloud 9, who had a really oddly passive draft perhaps to match 100T.

This match is going to have a playoff atmosphere. Both teams are fighting for the 5/6th spot but I like FlyQuest slightly morre here. This feels like a Fly pop-off on Aurelion Sol or Twisted Fate or something to me. They have side choice for counterpick, they need this game really badly so they'll be pulling out all the stops. While tempted to take the UNDER also I'm going to hold off because I think these two teams might just play this really carefully. I also think FlyQuest with their full lineup are a slightly better team than 100T as mentioned here:

Result: LOSS

I understand what FlyQuest were trying to do here. Punish the usual scaling style of 100 Thieves but when you know Aphromoo is willing to play Thresh and Blitzcrank against this all squishy team siege comp which is the perfect pick then you can't blind pick it from blue side. I hedge this entire bet as the draft ended to cancel it out.

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Moneyline: Echo Fox -159 (1 unit)

I'm having a tough time getting a read on this game. Team Liquid looked to be in position to stomp OpTic yesterday and really struggled closing the game out at times and Echo Fox had this really bizarre draft against TSM and while Huni did everything in his power to carry he just couldn't as Fenix had perhaps his worst performance of the split. Both teams are coming off of really weird day one matches but I think Echo Fox get right and take this game. Liquid haven't really shown they care to utilize any strange or outside the box counterpicks so while side selection gives them an edge it's not a huge one. To me this matchup comes down to Dardoch and Huni just being extremely difficult to deal with and Xmithie and Impact have shown moments of collapse this season, albeit not often. I'm not going heavy on this one but I do think Echo Fox take it down.

Result: WIN

Jeez this was close for about 8 minutes and then Echo Fox just ran wild on it. Huni pulled all the pressure but Fenix just went absolutely nuts on Ryze.

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Moneyline: Golden Guardians +149 (1 unit)

This is admittedly a bit of a line value bet. I don't like to bet heavy on two bad teams facing off but I had this line at CLG -150. I think CLG is bad but I do think they're the better team here. I'm hanging my hat on one major factor and that's been that has been CLG's complete ineptitude in playing with a lead vs Golden Guardians never give up attitude. Doesn't this just feel like the kind of loss that leads to a coaching or player change? Maybe Hai has a spicy counter cooked up but this could just as easily be a draft blunder by a bad GG team and they forget to ban Aurelion Sol and CLG stomps. I'm going to lay a unit on the underdogs here based on CLG's lack of ability to close a game and GG fighting tooth and nail to the very end.

Result: WIN

This CLG team sucks so bad. "Hey guys, let's pick a 1-3-1 split push comp with twisted fate to throw off this bad GG team. SOUNDS GOOD" *proceeds to team fight*

Somebody needs to be fired or benched even if temporarily. I'm admittedly a bit of a CLG hater but these players, while overrated, are not that bad. This is a dumpster fire. Maybe a new coach or new direction or maybe try the academy squad or some players or something because this is awful. They look so desparate but this is really basic fundamental stuff that they're doing wrong week in and week out.

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Moneyline: Clutch Gaming +128 (1 unit)

This line was more or less where I thought it would be. My gut tells me that Cloud 9 might do what they did yesterday against 100 Thieves. "They can't pressure early so let's just pick a better scaling team than them." This strategy has been notoriously bad this split and led to so many upsets especially when the team thinking it doesn't have side choice, realizes that they've given up Azir or Gangplank (blue side) or a counterpick (red side). It happened to Cloud 9 yesterday, it happened to G2 yesterday against Fnatic with the Sivir pick. Now maybe that's not how this ends up and we end up with Cloud 9 adjusting by saying "Screw that we should just roll these guys." I'm going to put a unit on Clutch here even though I think Cloud 9 is the better team for a couple reasons.

They need the win slightly more than Cloud 9 do.
The get side choice
Febiven and Solo can actually match Jensen and Licorice.
Bot lanes can match although I do think Cloud 9's is slightly better.
Lira is usually slightly worse than Sven but his ceiling to me has always been a little higher so he could have one of those pop off games.
Clutch, while not the most proactive team, don't make a lot of mistakes so they do a good job of forcing games closer to 50/50.
Cloud 9 potentially wanting to experiment with a different strategy since they've more or less clinched playoffs already. (depends on if they want to fight for #1 seed)

Result:

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LOL Champions Korea February 25th Schedule:

Jin Air GW (+209, +1.5 @ -135, M1 +168, M2 +162, M3 +153)
@ (Over/Under: 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
KT Rolster (-278, -1.5 @ +100, M1 -227, M2 -227, M3 -213)

BBQ Olivers (-156, -1.5 @ +172, M1 -139, M2 -143, M3 -143)
@ (Over/Under: 36:00, Total Kills 22.5)
MVP (+117, +1.5 @ -238, M1 +102, M2 +105, M3 +105)

Moneyline: KT Rolster -278 (4 units)

Moneyline: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +100 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 37:00 @ -111 and -109 (1 unit each)

Moneyline: KT Rolster Map 1 and 2 FIRST BLOOD @ -139 and -141 (1 unit each)

Afreeca had some absolutely terrible drafts as they tried to experiment with some new picks coming out of the week off but they did not work. Jin Air capitalized and punished accordingly but despite an excellent performance I can't put as much weight on it as I would have without the Nidalee and Poppy jungle selections. I don't want to say Afreeca didn't show up to this game but they were clearly in "let's try something different" mode and they got punished for it. Give credit where it's due. Grace and Teddy are doing their best to carry this team and are certainly good enough to but I don't think they can match a KT Rolster team that I don't expect to horse around like Afreeca did. I think most teams respect this Jin Air team because they respect how good Teddy is but how much of an advantage can Teddy get against Deft and Mata? That's the other aspect of this matchup to me. Jin Air's strongest players simply aren't that much better or worse than Pawn and Deft/Mata. I'm jumping on KT here. I might actually add another unit or two to the -1.5 because I think this is a statement game for KT to move themselves into a share of first heading into next week.

Result: WIN

Result: LOSS

Result: LOSS LOSS

Result: WIN WIN

Game one was a sloppy bloodbath of a game that KT honestly threw. They were up 8-0 at 20 minutes and decided to dive into base and JAG started mounting a comeback from that so this game took 42 minutes. KT were styling just a bit too hard. KT's bot lane absolutely roflstomped Teddy in bot. I'm really not entirely sure how KT didn't 2-0 this series. KT seemed to win every skirmish but they weren't getting objectives off of won fights. They struggled closing against the resilient Jin Air. KT are extremely good at skirmishing which I think is going to become more popular next patch with tracker's knife gone. They're just so decisive and committed to every call. They feel like an LPL team that are winning games in Korea. I think with some improvement on closing games out and getting things off of won fights they could be the best team in the world.

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Moneyline: BBQ Olivers -156 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 36:00 @ -109 (0.5 units each)

I can't tell if MVP stomping game two against BBQ the first time around was because they got Zoe or because they had tilted BBQ from an weird throw in the first game. Regardless I don't think BBQ are going to let Ian have Azir or Zoe again and if BBQ want to make a playoff run they have no losses to give. I'd prefer BBQ in this matchup whether it was Bono or Trick but I'm really curious whether or not MVP play Pilot. Pilot has been a part of 3 of their 4 game wins and I'm not entirely sure why he isn't getting more starts. This game might be close with him playing.

The thing is BBQ are a sloppy team. They can look so good at time but they're just a sloppy, scrappy team. A lot of their metrics paint that picture. Their damage per minute as a team is, along with Kongdoo, almost 200 lower than the rest of the league and they're not exactly rolling 1-3-1 compositions all the time. Most of the fights they take are short and sweet, they don't perform well in longer games and prefer picks and skirmishes to larger scale team fighting. I think they can force these types of situations against MVP but because I don't trust them to be consistent performers I'm limiting this to 1 unit.

Result: LOSS

Result: WIN LOSS

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LOL Pro League (China) February 25th Schedule:

Invictus Gaming (-139, -1.5 @ +195, M1 -125, M2 -125, M3 -125)
@ (Over/Under: 35:00, Total Kills 20.5)
Snake eSports (+102, +1.5 @ -278, M1 -109, M2 -109, M3 -109)

Royal Never Give-Up (-135, -1.5 @ +195, M1 -118, M2 -119, M3 -119)
@ (Over/Under: 36:00, Total Kills 20.5)
Team WE (+105, +1.5 @ -270, M1 -112, M2 -114, M3 -114)

Moneyline: Invictus Gaming -139 (2 units)

Moneyline: Invictus Gaming -1.5 @ +195 (0.5 units)

Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1 unit each)

In the LPL a slugfest battle between the two top teams isn't the same as it is in other regions. Usually they're fast games. All of the meetings between top 3 teams in each conference this split have been sub 35 minutes hence the under. These teams are both excellent but neither are good defensive teams so once mistakes are made games end. I think Invictus have a slightly better roster here and in China the individual players tend to matter a lot more with a select few exceptions (Qiao Gu Reapers last year). I'm willing to put a half unit on the 2-0 for a good payout as well.

Result: WIN

Result: WIN

Result: LOSS LOSS

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Moneyline: Team WE +105 (2 units)

Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 36:00 @ -116 (1 unit each)

Looking at the rosters makes you wonder how these two worlds competitiors have fallen so hard from grace but the LPL is a long season and my gut tells me these teams likely haven't kicked practice into gear yet. Yea that's stupid narrative driven bs but whatever. WE look like the better team to me and I don't know why RNG are favored by as much as they are so we'll throw a few units at this. They've got a positive gold differential per minute, score first blood in over half their games, and RNG are likely going to just let them do that with how slow they play in their winning games. WE have better quality wins as well IMO. We'll take a flyer on this but if I bust because I'm betting on two low to mid tier teams and that's where they end up then I'll be ok with it. This time last year this would've been a storied rivalry. One of these two should kick into gear for the second half of the season. They also get side selection.

Result: LOSS

Result: WIN WIN

Uzi returned to play tonight after some time off. I still would've wagered in this way but it did make a difference.

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League Masters Series (Taiwan) February 25th Schedule:

Team Afro (-152, -1.5 @ +195, M1 -139, M2 -133, M3 -139)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5)
Hong Kong Attitude (+109, +1.5 @ -303, M1 +100, M2 -104, M3 +100)

Moneyline: OVER 34:00 @ -106 and -109 (0.5 units each)

These two teams continue to play slowly even on the new patch and both seem incapable of really fast closing speeds. They're sloppy. I like the over 34. This might be the only over I've taken this entire week but on this one it makes sense.

Result: WIN WIN

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Turkish Champions League February 25th Schedule:

YouthCrew -112 @ Team AURORA -123
1907 Fenerbahce -1429 @ Galakticos +609
Royal Bandits -294 @ Dark Passage +204
HWA Gaming +770 @ SuperMassive TNG -2500

Moneyline:1907 FB @ Galakticos UNDER 32:00 @ -167 (1 unit)

Moneyline: HWA @ SuperMassive UNDER 32:00 @ -167 (2 units)

Moneyline: Royal Bandits @ Dark Passage UNDER 32:00 @ -105 (2 units)

Moneyline: Royal Bandits @ Dark Passage RB First Blood @ -141 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Royal Bandits @ Dark Passage RB First Blood @ -129 (1 unit)

Keeping up with a handful of trends I've noticed from the remarkably predictable TCL.

Results: (in order) LOSS LOSS WIN WIN WIN

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LCL (CIS) February 25th Schedule:

Dragon Army +110 @ RoX -152
EPG +196 @ Vega Squadron -286
Gambit -263 @ RoX +185
Dragon Army -143 @ Team Just Alpha +105
M19 -333 @ Vaevictis eSports +210
Team Just Alpha +215 @ Gambit -345

Moneyline: RoX +185 to defeat Gambit (1 unit)

RoX beat Gambit the first time around and while I think this Gambit roster has stronger players (this is 4/5 of the ANX lineup that went to worlds quarters) RoX clearly had something right the first time around and their metrics are pretty bonkers. Riddem has been roflstomping in the top lane with an 11.4 KDA over 6 games on Gangplank, Kled, and Urgot.

Result:

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Overrated / Underrated Teams Page Updated Weekly (Updated 2/14)!!

LCK 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List

NA LCS Spring 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List

EU LCS Spring 2018 Mid-Season "Rest of the Way" Tier List

NA LCS Spring 2018 Predictions and Preseason Bets

EU LCS Spring 2018 Predictions and Preseason Bets

Friday, February 23, 2018

Betting: February 24th (LCK / LPL / LMS / TCL / EU LCS / NA LCS)

Personal Early Line Projections:
These are what I believe the line should be not what I think the books will put it at. I will write this down before looking at the lines the books set for the day as a gauge of whether or not my expectations are in or out of line on the game. I typically weigh my own expectations a lot more because unlike in traditional sports I don't think the books know what they're doing or they just let an algorithm set their lines.

ROX Tigers @ SK Telecom -200 (66.6%)
Kingzone -233 (70%) @ Afreeca

Giants -233 (70%) @ H2K
ROCCAT -122 (55%) @ Unicorns of Love
Misfits -150 @ Team Vitality
Schalke 04 -122 (55%) @ Splyce
G2 eSports -108 (52%) @ Fnatic

100 Thieves @ Cloud 9 -400 (80%)
CLG @ Clutch -233 (70%)
TSM @ Echo Fox -122 (55%)
Golden Guardians @ OpTic Gaming -122 (55%)
Team Liquid -186 (65%) @ FlyQuest

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North American LCS February 24th Schedule:

100 Thieves +208 @ Cloud 9 -278
Counter Logic Gaming +125 @ Clutch Gaming -161
Team Solo Mid +149 @ Echo Fox -200
Golden Guardians +122 @ OpTic Gaming -167
Team Liquid -286 @ FlyQuest +199

Moneyline: Cloud 9 -278 (4 units)

Moneyline: UNDER 37:00 @ -116 (2 units)

This feels like a trap game but I'm going to put my faith in Cloud 9 to put a mediocre 100 Thieves team away. Cloud 9 are absolutely stomping everybody except for Echo Fox and they punish passive teams with uptempo playmaking and aggressive teams by taking a single mistake and ending a game on it (like they did against TSM). 100 Thieves are simply too passive to reliably beat this C9 team in my opinion. I set this line at -400. With side choice I don't think 100 Thieves will be able to devastatingly surprised C9 with anything in the draft so I'm comfortable laying 4 here as well as the under because 37 is just way out of line for this patch and how fast Cloud 9 plays.

Result: LOSS

Result: WIN

This game felt like Cloud 9 calling out 100 Thieves not being able to play early, picking a full scaling comp, and then 100 Thieves was like "nah." Like holy shit when are these top teams going to learn that you can't do this... its infuriating. Luckily I was able to hedge most of this back but damn...

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Moneyline: Clutch Gaming -161 (2 units)

(UPDATE: Added 5 units @ -125 right before the won baron before elder)

This feels like a spot I'd completely slam Clutch because of how underrated I think they are and how overrated CLG still is but this feels like a must win for CLG. With Golden Guardians on the slate for tomorrow a 2-0 this weekend could put CLG back into playoff contention but a 1-1 combined with wins from Liquid, Clutch, and FlyQuest could really put a dent in their playoff hopes.

CLG have lost their last 4. Clutch have won their last 4.
Clutch absolutely destroyed CLG off of some early mistakes in their first matchup.
CLG D/GPM: 1.2 Clutch D/GPM: 0.98
Gold differential per min: CLG = -146 Clutch = +75
CLG is the stronger early game team and outputs more damage per gold overall (likely from playing more 3 core style compositions).
I prefer Lira + Febiven to Reignover + Huhi even with meta considerations.
CLG have not been able to close with massive gold leads.
Clutch have the strongest player in the game in Febiven.

I'm giving a lot of respect to the meta morphing to something more in CLG's wheelhouse but I still think Clutch take this game. Huhi is CLG's strongest player despite being really overrated and this tempo based metagame is excellent for him. With that said he has to face Febiven who has been one of the strongest players in North America this split. My gut tells me CLG are up for this game which makes me want to keep this at 2 units but I do think Clutch have the edge. CLG simply can't close when they have a lead most of the time and Clutch are a plus macro team so I actually think even with the meta trending toward faster games Clutch can win without a lead while CLG won't always win with a lead.

Result: WIN (+3.24 units)

Result: WIN (+9 units)

To be honest Febiven was both the reason they won this game, were winning this game, and were losing at one point. He was stepping up greedily and CLG found the ONE place that wasn't warded on a flank that allowed CLG a chance back into the game. That's one of the only mistakes I've seen him make all season and he still carried the end of this game.

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Moneyline: Team Solo Mid +149 (2 units)

I'm putting some faith in TSM to learn that you simply can't just wait for teams to make mistakes anymore and they stop just rolling over and dying in games. They were aggresive and proactive against Cloud 9 and if a couple plays went one auto attack differently they would have likely taken that game down. It was the reason I followed up on them against Clutch. Echo Fox look dominant right now but I think this line is slightly off and TSM need this win WAY more than Echo Fox do. I could imagine a scenario where Echo Fox try something different because they have a bit of a cushion now. With that said, Echo Fox could potentially win this even doing that.

This is definitely more of a gut feeling bet. Great players clutch it out when games matter and TSM can't afford to lose many more matches if they want a good playoff seeding. Echo Fox sit atop the LCS and are only a couple wins from clinching playoffs. I could definitely see a lackluster or sloppy performance from them and TSM showing up with a must win attitude. I just hope they don't play passive.

Result:

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Moneyline: OpTic Gaming -167 (2 units)

(UPDATE: DHOKLA I STARTING TOP FOR OPTIC. I don't know too much because I haven't watched every academy game but he's pretty clearly the best top laner in the challenger scene and he's been on a losing team which is impressive.)

(UPDATE 2: Really like the draft from OpTic. Getting Dhokla his best champion and the Orianna soft counter to Ryze. They gave up the Skarner but I'm going to put another 2 units at -167 on OpTic)

OpTic decisively dispatched of GG in their first meeting from blue side and with side selection and a more favorable patch for superior mid laner PowerofEvil with Viktor being quite good I feel pretty confident giving the edge to OpTic here. I also think even a pseudo-washed up Ssumday should trounce Lourlo and Arrow to put rookie Deftly in his place especially if we see the Draven pick again. I'm going to limit this to 2 units because ultimately this is the two bottom teams in the LCS but if OpTic have visions of a playoff run they absolutely need to win this game.

Result: WIN

Result: WIN (TOTAL of +6.4 units)

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Moneyline: Team Liquid -286 (3 units)

Moneyline: UNDER 35:00 @-116 (1 unit)

I like the way the new FlyQuest looks but they're still not a particularly great team. Liquid are coming off a disappointing loss to Golden Guardians and barely beat CLG. I expect this to be a wake up call for them and for TL to show up guns blazing this week. A lot of the mistakes they made were draft errors and are relatively simple fixes so I trust they'll return to form for a playoff push. I also think Liquid have the edge in every role except for top which feels like a push. With the pace at which both of these teams play I'd imagine it's a fast game regardless of the winner.

Result: WIN

Result: WIN

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EU LCS February 24th Schedule:

Giants Gaming -143 @ H2k +105
Team ROCCAT -152 @ Unicorns of Love +120
Team Vitality +106 @ Misfits Gaming -135
Splyce -104 @ FC Schalke 04 -130
Fnatic -114 @ G2 eSports -111

Moneyline: Giants Gaming -143 (3 units)

Moneyline: UNDER 36:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

(UPDATE: Added 0.25 units H2k @ +785 in game at 12 minutes. Camille is way way ahead of Gangplank and after a rough start H2k have stabalized. I'm just going to hedge a bit and saw this line jump to 785 because Giants don't have this in the bag just yet although they are up with Azir + Gangplank.)

People love an underdog comeback story. They absolutely love when the last place team starts winning so it's been a feel good week for fans of H2K and UOL but as Eminem once said "snap back to reality." I have no idea how SmittyJ is going to deal with Ruin who continues to perform at a high level. Only Wunder, the best top in Europe, has outperformed him in the role but I think Giants have stronger players top to bottom and unlike the similarly rated ROCCAT don't just roll over and die in the early game despite being a late game prefering team.

H2K are dealing 1578 damage per minute with 1690 gold per minute, differential per minute -232
Giants are dealing 1763 damage per minute with 1801 gold per minute, differential per minute -33
Giants have an impressive first tower differential at +0.18 which is surprising given their 6-5 record.

This line is cooking in the recent poor performance of Giants and the recent great performance of H2K since Shook and Selfie joined and while I do think they're an improved team this line shouldn't be this close. I had it as -233. I'll drop 3 units here for good value on the stronger team. It'd be more if Giants were an S tier level roster but since it's a best of one I'll keep this one tame at 3.

Result: LOSS

Result: LOSS

Result: WIN (on hedge to minimize losses). All told this was roughly a 2 unit loss since the hedge made half our wager back.

Wow... Giants you have to close this game. You dicked around two different times when you had the game iced. First overstaying after taking a nexus tower on the first nexus siege then again 50 minutes later. This was that game that you don't auto attack the nexus and lose, at least it feels that way. Giants didn't close this. They played as if it was over. That being said if Giants didn't get a baron stolen from them (with a Kalista on their team...) this game would have been over at 32 minutes. Hopefully this now means Giants won't do this ever again.

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Moneyline: Team ROCCAT -152 (2 units)

Moneyline: UNDER 36:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

Team ROCCAT looked absolutely abysmal yesterday but it was against G2. They also looked terrible against H2K last week but that was also on short notice of their new roster.

Stronger in all 3 lanes and even in jungle.
Need the wins in a close middle of the table in Europe.
Line way off

While I've been disappointed with this ROCCAT team and UOL seem to have found a bit of a stride I think both teams are due to return to form a little bit. ROCCAT got embarassed yesterday and UOL would have lost that game had Splyce shown any fight whatsoever. Unlike Splyce yesterday, ROCCAT will take early fights and run you around the map instead of just trying to always play defensively. I like the favorites because I think this line is way off but ultimately this is two teams towards the bottom of the table so I'm limiting it to 2 units.

Result: LOSS

Result: LOSS

Exileh keeps proving me wrong. He hard carried this game on Azir. This wasn't a tempo issue or anything like that. He got to full build on his own merit with great team fighting and ROCCAT couldn't stop them from scaling.

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Moneyline: Misfits -135 (3 units)

Moneyline: UNDER 37:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

(UPDATE: Added 5 units in game at -476 at around 29:50. Just barely missed getting in at -200 heading into that fight near mid. Baron buff against a team with almost zero wave clear should be game.)

Team Vitality continue to crash, as predicted and unfortunately Misfits are hungry for wins and good playoff seeding to avoid G2 and Fnatic who appear to be a cut above the rest of Europe.

Misfits side selection for potential counterpicks
Misfits stronger on the top side of the map
Misfits stronger in the mid + jungle duel
Misfits stronger in the bottom lane
Minitroupax was unable to carry even when given resources yesterday against Giants when Jiizuke was taken out of the game by jungle pressure.

I think Misfits are going to approach this game the same way Giants did yesterday and try to take out Jiizuke and make Minitroupax carry which he was unable to do on a 3-0 Tristana. I'm sure Vitality will start winning some games again but not this one.

Result: WIN (+5.22 units)

Result: WIN

Result: Added a unit with my IG bet.

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Moneyline: Schalke 04 -130 (3 units)

Moneyline: UNDER 37:00 @ -116 (1 unit)

Both have these teams have been disappointing but Schalke have at least showed some fight in recent weeks while Splyce continue to play their attempt at Season 7 SKT style which, unfortunately, they can't do because they aren't remotely close to as good as that team was.

Splyce refuse to make proactive plays and only react
Reactive, defensive play has been weakened by recent patches
Game time substantially lowered
Splyce lose most games that don't go long
Splyce outclassed in every position.

As disappointing as Schalke have been I'm not giving up hope. They're a strong team that has had a rough go of it with sickness and lineup issues and have at least looked good in their losses. Splyce just rolled over and died in their last two matches.

Result: LOSS

Result: WIN

These baron throws man... back to back daggers.

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Moneyline: G2 eSports -111 (2 units)

This is the match of the week. The two top teams in Europe get to duke it out for first place. Both teams are coming off of 7-0 and 6-0 runs and have been absolutely crushing the table. I'm selecting G2 here but this could go either way.

Wunder is the best top lane in Europe and while SoaZ has been good, he's made a lot of weird mistakes while Wunder has been the strongest laner WITH THE LEAST JUNGLE HELP.
Perkz is the best mid laner in Europe and while Caps has been impressive as well it's not quite to the same level as Perkz.
Bot lane is slight advantage to Fnatic with Rekkles playing out of his mind right now it's tough to argue this one.
Jungle goes to Jankos as does the mid + jungle and top + jungle matchups.
G2 have been the better early game team on an early game patch.

I wouldn't blame you for taking the otherside on this one but I'm going with G2 for 2 units. They're the better early game team, albeit not by much, and I think their wins have been a lot more decisive.

Result: LOSS

This was a good, competitive game but Fnatic just had the Viktor + Sivir stall machine. G2 just didn't have quite a big enough lead to close this one out against that wave clear.

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LCK February 24th Schedule:

ROX Tigers (+160, +1.5 @ -200, M1 +117, M2 +117, M3 +118)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
SK Telecom (-208, -1.5 @ +151, M1 -154, M2 -154, M3 -154)

Kingzone DragonX (-323, -1.5 @ -103, M1 -244, M2 -250, M3 -227)
@ (Over/Under 37:00, Total Kills 18.5)
Afreeca Freecs (+238, +1.5 @ -125, M1 +180, M2 +177, M3 +163)

Moneyline: SK Telecom -208 (4 units)

Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 37:00 (1 unit each)

Moneyline: Map 1 SKT FIRST BLOOD @ -130 (0.5 units)

I might just be a sucker for this one so tail at your own caution because I was likely going to slam this one if the line was even remotely close to my anticipation.

As good as ROX Tigers have been I think it's safe to say they've been overperforming expectations a bit. SKT won the first series of the season 2-1 against ROX and while both teams seem to be improved I think this metagame favors SKT's new found aggression a bit more. Neither of these teams have a particularly great EGR (early game rating) over the course of the season and both have similar gold per minute ratings as 1850 for ROX and 1901 for SK Telecom. The difference is that SKT is doing almost 200 damage per minute more with only a little bit more gold. ROX are a solid, scrappy team that fights a lot even though they aren't usually effective in doing so early in the game. With SKT's new found willingness to actually take fights and skirmishes for a change, I think they'll be able to match ROX and avoid getting too far behind early in the game. ROX rely heavily on SeongHwan and Lava snowballing games to win and I just think Faker and Blossom can outperform them in that aspect, especially with side selection for a potential Faker counterpick.

This is 1 unit metrics, 2 units strategy/matchups, and 1 unit gut feeling. I just think Faker, Wolf, and Bang have been so clutch in the past and I'm willing to ride and die if it comes to it.

Result: WIN (+5.92 units)

Result: WIN WIN

Result: WIN

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Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -323 (4 units)

Moneyline: Kingzone DragonX -1.5 maps@ -103 (0.5 unit)

Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 37:00 @-109/110 (1 unit each)

This is not an overreaction bet to Afreeca losing to Jin Air nor is it an overcorrection bet for Kingzone losing to BBQ Olivers.

I'm placing this wager under the assumption that Khan gets the start in top lane and Peanut in the jungle
Kiin vs Khan is an absolutely insane mismatch even with counterpick and Kiin performing well this season. He's just not on the same level. Khan is likely the best player in the world right now.
Both the Top + Jungle and Mid + Jungle matchups are advantage Kingzone
Bot Lane is even to me in current form
Kingzone absolutely smashed the first matchup 2-0 and that included a swap to Cuzz in game 2
Kingzone is doing 1958 damage per minute and 2053 gold per minute
Afreeca is doing 1770 damage per minute and 1963 gold per minute.
Kingzone has a gold differential per minute of +339 (this is absolutely insane)
Afreeca has a gold differential per minute of +129

To me this has less to do with the metrics, although they do play a factor, and more to do with this being a strategic mismatch on an individual and partial squadron level. If you control the top side of the map in League's current form you can select a neutral or shoving bot lane. It's how both of these teams have been playing all season with a couple exceptions. It has nothing to do with Jin Air or BBQ "revealing" anything about these teams. As exciting as I want this match to be with the previous #1 and #2 and both losing in upset fashion coming off the bye week it just feels like the Kingzone boogeyman are going to smash this series. They're the better early game team and that's not to say Afreeca are bad at it but Kingzone are just on another level and I expect Khan to remind everybody why he's the world's best at the moment.

Result: WIN (+5.24 units)

Result: LOSS

Result: LOSS LOSS

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LMS February 24th Schedule:

Mad Team (+314, +1.5 @ +100, M1 +215, M2 +214, M3 +189)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 22.5)
Flash Wolves (-500, -1.5 @ -135, M1 -313, M2 -323, M3 -278)

Team Afro (-156, -1.5 @ +195, M1 -139, M2 -139, M3 -139)
@ (Over/Under 34:00, Total Kills 24.5)
HK Attitude (+107, +1.5 @ -303, M1 +100, M2 +100, M3 +100)

Moneyline: Flash Wolves -1.5 maps @ -135 (2 units)

Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER:34 @ -135 (0.5 units each)

Flash Wolves sit atop the LMS once again with 4th place Mad Team next up on the chopping block. Tale of the tape?

Flash Wolves: 1951 gold per min, 2010 damage per min, +273 gold differential per min
Mad Team: 1796 gold per min, 1934 damage per min, -37 gold differential per min
LMS Region Avg Game Time (besides Flash Wolves): 38:06
Flash Wolves Avg Game Time: 34:34 (including a 24:41)

Mad Team, like many of the middle tier teams in the LMS get behind early and play a disciplined scaling game. With a slightly faster patch and game times and a Flash Wolves team that was already taking advantage of up tempo play this just appears to be a stylistic mismatch. They're -500 favorites and that's probably close to accurate if not too forgiving. I like the handicap for 2 units but not the moneyline at that price in a region I'm less well-versed in.

Result: WIN (+3.475 units)

Result: WIN LOSS

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LPL February 24th Schedule:

JD Gaming (-286, -1.5 @ -116, M1 -217, M2 -222, M3 -222)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 20.5)
FunPlus Phoenix (+199, +1.5 @ -116, M1 +161, M2 +159, M3 +159)

LGD Gaming (+117, +1.5 @ -278, M1 +107, M2 +106, M3 +106)
@ (Over/Under 35:00, Total Kills 20.5)
BiliBili Gaming (-159, -1.5 @ +197, M1 -141, M2 -143, M3 -143)

Moneyline: FunPlus Phoenix +1.5 maps @ -116 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1 unit each)

Moneyline: Map 1 JD Gaming FIRST BLOOD @ -133 (0.5 unit)

This, admittedly, is a hunch upset bet. JD and FPP are in different conferences so much like the MLB's interleague play there are a lot of upsets because the teams are only playing to match in conference wins instead of adding a win and adding a loss to an in conference opponent. Combine that with the 2 week Chinese New Year holiday and this has all the makings of FPP stealing one of these games. I'm not saying JD Gaming are going to come out flat. They're one of the best first blood teams in the world (hence the wager) but I do think that underdogs coming off a 2 week break like this are often good values. We've seen it in the LCK with BBQ and Jin Air. Now maybe I'm nuts because FPP is a bottom 3 team in the LPL but they took a game off out of conference Invictus Gaming, the hands down #1 in China right now, before the break and have a match victory against #2 Snake as well. They're capable of stealing games against the best teams.

Result: WIN (+1.86 units)

Result: WIN WIN

Result: WIN

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Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming -159 (3 units)

Moneyline: BiliBili Gaming -1.5 maps @ +197 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Maps 1 and 2 UNDER 35:00 @ -116 (1 unit each)

I'm dipping into the LPL a bit more on their first week back. Both of these teams are competitive middle of the table teams that have taken games here and there off of top level squads but I like BiliBili for a couple reasons.

They perhaps have more impressive wins taking more games off of better teams but LGD seem to struggle against teams that have strong mid + jungle duos and Athena and SKS have been one of the best combinations in China.
BiliBili are great at closing games out and finding resources without kills, LGD are significantly more reliant on kills. In other words, BBG are more surgical while LGD just try to brute force.
BBG's bot lane of Jinjiao and Road have quietly been having one of the best duo performances in the LPL this split with a 4.8/4.3 KDA and 76.2/81.8 kill participation rate

This is a case of the expert vs the athelete. Historically in Chinese League of Legends the experts win out and they are few and far between. BBG play a very Korean style game (likely impacted by their Korean mid and support players). They don't play slow but they play calculated and close with blazing speed and consistency. LGD are more mistake prone. I like the favorites a good bit in this brains vs braum matchup especially because BBG's bottom lane should be able to match LGD's strength which is their bot lane and the center of the map is all BBGs.

Result: WIN (+4.89 units)

Result: WIN (+2.97 units)

Result: WIN WIN

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Saturday, February 24, 2018

Betting: February 25th (LCK / LPL / LMS / TCL / NA LCS)

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Betting: February 24th (LCK / LPL / LMS / TCL / EU LCS / NA LCS)