These are my 2018 Main Event Group Stage predictions. Obviously guessing on a game to game basis entirely in advance is a tough thing to do but I like to have an idea of how things will shake out beforehand and make adjustments as things unfurl. Plus it's just fun! I'll be doing separate posts for daily bets and stuff.
Group A Predictions:
Afreeca Freecs 5-1 (loss to Flash Wolves)
Flash Wolves 3-3 (1 win against each)
G2 eSports 2-4 (a win against FW and Phong Vu)
Phong Vu 2-4 (a win against FW and G2)
Group A is the most interesting to me, not because it's the most competitive but because we don't know a lot about Phong Vu and we don't know which Flash Wolves will show up. We also don't know how they'll fare against Western teams. The one constant we have in Group A is the Afreeca will be well-prepared for this tournament. I was saying leading up to Worlds that I was a bit bummed because both China and Korea are sending their 5th best teams. That doesn't mean I don't think they're capable of taking this tournament down just that they're the 5th best in two regions that are extremely deep this year. Afreeca are the Korean version of 100 Thieves. They have a good domestic record because they know how to play against their peers and plan against them but imagine if 100 Thieves had an absolute juggernaut of a top laner. An argument could be made that Kiin is the best player in this entire tournament and I wouldn't scoff at it at all. He's such a tremendous force to deal with. The amount of pressure he creates in the draft (something that I don't think will change considering his specialty champions are still extremely potent) as well as in game is no joke and only teams with top notch, world class top and jungle talent will be able to hang. Kiin is a monster. Anyway enough about how awesome Kiin and Afreeca are... I think Flash Wolves in top form will take a game off of Afreeca but I legitimately think the rest of this group could just be 1-1 splits all over the place. I know I had Phong Vu ranked lower than some wildcard teams going into this tournament but some more film viewing and the opinion of some people and coaches I respect have changed my tune a bit. I think they could take games against at least G2 and I'm willing to throw them one against FW though I may end up looking like an idiot calling that. They're still the team I have watched the least even after diving a little deeper on them. They could also just 0-6 this group for the reasons I listed in my Pre-Tournament Rankings. Not used to this level of competition. I think this is the order I have this group going in regardless of whether Phong Vu are real or not. I'm not too high on G2 this year but they have good enough players to hang internationally they just haven't put it all together as a team consistently enough to impress me.
Group B Predictions:
Royal Never Give Up 5-1 (loss to Gen.G)
Gen.G 4-2 (losses to RNG and Vitality)
Vitality 2-4 (wins will be against C9 and Gen.G)
Cloud 9 1-5 (win against Vitality)
It's really unfortunate that Vitality and C9 got drawn into this group, especially C9 with how they've preferred to play. To me the only way this isn't Gen.G and RNG is if people can punish Gen.G's preference for slow play. Coincidentally that's someting that I think Vitality actually have a slight chance of doing but not Cloud 9. There's a chance Gen.G turn back into the pumpkin they were the entire calendary year last year and parts of this year and honestly for parts of Worlds before the bracket stage last year. There's also a good chance they maintain the momentum they had from the LCK Gauntlet and come in guns blazing. RNG are one of the best teams in the tournament, many people have them as the best team in the tournament and it's totally reasonable to expect that but I actually think Gen.G if they're playing well can take a game in a pseudo best of one format.
To me this group appears the most competitive top to bottom but stylistically these teams are all very different from each other so theres the possibility for upsets. I think Vitality will punish both Gen.G and Cloud 9 in a game for the slow play that they prefer unless those teams adapt. Historically teams that 'know who they are" and just play the way they know how to play have had a lot of success at the World Championships. Think LMQ, Albus Nox Luna, and even week one Cloud 9 from 2016. Vitality are stubborn in a way that could benefit them and that's why I think they could pull a few wins in this group. Cloud 9 I think struggled mightily in the play-in when they probably shouldn't have and this group is just too stacked. If Vitality were a team that doesn't project as a bad stylistic matchup I'd say Cloud 9 would have 2 or 3 wins but the combination of strength of opponents (RNG and Gen.G) and the "weak" team being a bad matchup I just don't see Cloud 9 taking more than a game or two in this group.
Group C Predictions:
KT Rolster 6-0 (if they're going to lose it'll be to TL)
Team Liquid 3-3 (win tiebreak vs EDG)
EDward Gaming 3-3
MAD Team 0-6
My gut is telling me Team Liquid will get out of this group even though I had EDG higher than them in my pre tournament power rankings by a half tier. It's not because EDG have "been sloppy" or "arrogant" but because I think Team Liquid actually has good enough individual players to hang in for a game and out macro EDG who have proven domestically that their mid to late game isn't the cleanest. I described EDG in the play-in stage as a team that can just run you over with pure individual abilities. They know how to close games out and get ahead so they're a rough draw for teams that have a strong team game but weaker individual players, like 100 Thieves for example. Team Liquid isn't that team. They are well prepared, more versatile than given credit for, and a lot of their players are individually strong enough to hold up in lanes against EDG. I think TL and EDG will split 1-1 then TL will win the tiebreak. MAD just aren't that good. I know they're the #2 seed but I honestly think G-Rex are a better team and while they have looked good, I don't have a lot of faith in the LMS teams mostly on the grounds of strength of competition. I'd be completely shocked if MAD took a game with the other three teams in this group being as strong as they are.
Group D Predictions:
Invictus Gaming 6-0
Fnatic 4-2 (losses to Invictus)
G-Rex 1-5 (win against 100 Thieves)
100 Thieves 1-5 (win against G-Rex)
If I'm going to be wrong about a team in this group it will be G-Rex who looked EXCELLENT in the play-in stage. I have them splitting with 100 Thieves but I could easily see G-Rex taking both of those games. You all know how I feel about 100 Thieves and I think in this group they're unfortunately individually outclassed in such an extreme fashion that I'm not sure any amount of good teamwork and macro decision-making can save them from a 0 or 1 win finish. Invictus were quietly one of the best teams in China all year and just happened to run into a smoking hot RNG at the wrong time twice or we could easily have been talking about them showing up to MSI and Rift Rivals and such and being the publicly perceived "best in the world." I could see Fnatic MAYBE taking a game off of them but Invictus are just good and one of the heavy favorites to take the entire tournament down in my opinion. Fnatic are strong, well-coached, and experienced internationally. Just because I think NA was slightly stronger and had more depth of competition top to bottom than EU this split doesn't mean Fnatic didn't do exactly what they needed to do to convince me of how good they are. In much the same way Flash Wolves does, all we can do is ask them to stomp their region and the rest is interpretation. Caps and Rekkless are bonafied studs and Broxah has improved enough for me to think he won't get completely obliterated against the strong junglers in this group. Fnatic have their weaknesses but they're not easily exposed and aren't actually that weak. They're well-rounded despite Rekkles' sometimes stubborn stylings.
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